Forex analysis review |
- October 25, 2019 : EUR/USD demonstrating a bearish visit towards the current uptrend line waiting for bullish rejection around
- October 25, 2019 : GBP/USD building bearish pressure over Intraday Demand Level 1.2780. Further Bearish decline is anticipated.
- October 25, 2019 : GBP/USD building bearish pressure over Intraday Demand Level 1.2780. Further Bearish decline is anticipated.
- The dollar has gone too far
- GBP/USD. Labor will not support Boris Johnson's idea of re-election
- Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair – prospects for further movement
- Fractal analysis for the cryptocurrencies BTCUSD and Ethereum on October 25th
- EURUSD and GBPUSD: The EU is delaying the vote on the postponement of Brexit until Monday. The ECB revised the forecast for
- Do not sell USD/JPY
- GBP/USD: plan for the American session on October 25th. The EU postponed the vote on the postponement until next week. The
- EUR/USD: plan for the American session on October 25th. Growth is limited by the resistance of 1.1120, which is unlikely
- BTC 10.25.2019 - Sell zone for Bitcoin, bearish flag in play
- GBP/USD 10.25.2019 - First downward target at the price of 1.279 reached
- Gold 10.25.2019 - Gold near our main upward objective at 1.517
- Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair – prospects for further movement
- Gold: between $1400 and $1700 – one dash?
- GBPUSD – take profit +1000p!
- Trading strategy for GBP/USD on October 25th. Boris Johnson confidently follows in the footsteps of Theresa May
- GBP is NOT about Brexit here
- Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 25, 2019
- ECB and Brexit pull the euro to the bottom
- Simplified wave analysis of GBP/USD and USD/JPY on October 25th
- Hot forecast for EUR / USD on 10/25/2019 and trading recommendation
- The finishing chord of Draghi put pressure on the euro (there is a possibility of limited growth of GBP/USD and correction
- Trading plan for EUR/USD for October 25, 2019
| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 09:04 AM PDT
Since September 13, the EUR/USD has been trending-down within the depicted short-term bearish channel until signs of trend reversal were demonstrated around 1.0880 (Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern). Shortly After, a bullish breakout above 1.0940 confirmed the mentioned reversal Pattern which opened the way for further bullish advancement towards (1.1000 -1.1020) maintaining bullish movement above the recent bullish trend. Temporary bearish rejection and a sideway consolidation range were demonstrated after hitting the price zone of (1.1000 -1.1020) on October 7. That's why, initial Intraday bearish pullback was demonstrated towards 1.0940-10915 where another bullish swing was initiated. The intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as long as the EUR/USD pair pursues its current movement above 1.1060 (Nearest demand-zone). That's why, the recent bullish breakout above 1.1120 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) enhanced further bullish advancement towards the price zone of (1.1175-1.1195) where the current bearish pullback was recently originated. This week, bearish pullback was recently expressed towards the depicted Keyzone (1.1090-1.1100) where the depicted uptrend line comes to meet the EUR/USD pair. Trade recommendations : Conservative traders should wait for bullish rejection around the depicted uptrend line (1.1090-1.1100) for a valid BUY entry. Initial T/P levels to be projected towards 1.1195 while S/L should be placed below 1.1060. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 08:54 AM PDT
Two weeks ago, the price zone of 1.2400-1.2415 (Double-Bottom pattern neckline) was breached to the upside allowing further bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2800 then 1.3000 where the GBP/USD looks overbought outside the depicted bullish channel. Earlier This week, the GBP/USD pair has failed to achieve a persistent bullish breakout above the depicted SUPPLY-zone (1.2980-1.3000) which corresponds to a previous Prominent-TOP that goes back to May 2019. Moreover, the depicted ascending wedge pattern has been activated indicating a high probability of bearish reversal around the price levels of 1.2950-1.2970. That's why, a quick bearish movement was expected to originate around these price levels down to 1.2780 (Key-Level) which is currently being tested. Any Bullish rejection to be expressed around the current price levels of 1.2780, indicates another temporary bullish movement towards 1.2980-1.3000 where another bearish swing can be initiated. On the other hand, any earlierbearish breakout below 1.2780 enables further bearish decline towards 1.2600-1.2650 where bullish recovery should be anticipated. Trade Recommendations: Conservative traders are advised to look for a valid BUY entry around 1.2780 if significant bullish rejection is expressed. Risky traders can wait for a bearish breakout below 1.2780 as a valid SELL entry with T/P levels projected towards 1.2650. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 08:54 AM PDT
Two weeks ago, the price zone of 1.2400-1.2415 (Double-Bottom pattern neckline) was breached to the upside allowing further bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2800 then 1.3000 where the GBP/USD looks overbought outside the depicted bullish channel. Earlier This week, the GBP/USD pair has failed to achieve a persistent bullish breakout above the depicted SUPPLY-zone (1.2980-1.3000) which corresponds to a previous Prominent-TOP that goes back to May 2019. Moreover, the depicted ascending wedge pattern has been activated indicating a high probability of bearish reversal around the price levels of 1.2950-1.2970. That's why, a quick bearish movement was expected to originate around these price levels down to 1.2780 (Key-Level) which is currently being tested. Any Bullish rejection to be expressed around the current price levels of 1.2780, indicates another temporary bullish movement towards 1.2980-1.3000 where another bearish swing can be initiated. On the other hand, any earlierbearish breakout below 1.2780 enables further bearish decline towards 1.2600-1.2650 where bullish recovery should be anticipated. Trade Recommendations: Conservative traders are advised to look for a valid BUY entry around 1.2780 if significant bullish rejection is expressed. Risky traders can wait for a bearish breakout below 1.2780 as a valid SELL entry with T/P levels projected towards 1.2650. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 07:12 AM PDT The outgoing Mario Draghi was able to cool the fervor of the "bulls" on EUR/USD by stating that the harm of negative rates was greatly exaggerated, that there was no mention of a split in the ranks of the ECB, and the quantitative easing program would last until the first increase in the deposit rate. If existing rules begin to limit it, the central bank may refuse them. We are talking about the limit of 33% of the volume of bonds issued by one country and the key to capital. The derivatives market believes that the ECB will begin to normalize monetary policy only in 2022, so the euro should theoretically be weak for a very long time. In practice, everything is different. The exchange rate of any currency is determined by capital flows of investment and trade nature. The former are more mobile, the latter began to play a more significant role than before in connection with the trade wars. The European QE has not yet started, but investors have activated their actions to purchase securities issued by issuers of the Old World. Stocks seem cheap to them (in dollar terms, since January 2018, European stock indexes have lost about 14-19%), and demand for bonds is high due to QE and the weakness of the currency bloc's economy. Disappointing statistics on the eurozone are unlikely to lead to grand sales of EUR/USD, as the chances of a fiscal stimulus will increase. In the United States, by contrast, disappointing data strengthens the risks of the S&P 500 correction and the overflow of capital from America to Europe. As a result, investment flows suggest that the euro is clearly underestimated against the US dollar, and the main currency pair should be trading at 1.3. Dynamics of EUR/USD and investment capital flows
The three main problems of the EUR/USD bulls are Brexit, trade wars and the ECB's ultra-soft monetary policy. No matter how much Mario Draghi talks about the absence of a split in the Governing Council, this is not so. Jens Weidmann intends to oppose the abolition of existing rules, and other "hawks" of the European Central Bank will certainly support him. The potential for monetary expansion in the Old World is limited, and this deprives the "bears" on the main currency pair of one of the trump cards. I do not think that the story of Brexit will last. Yes, the transition period will be extended, but in the end, everything will be resolved safely – London and Brussels will sign an agreement. The fact that the US economy is slowing under the influence of trade wars will make Donald Trump more compliant than before. In the week to November 1, investors' attention will be focused on the meeting of the Fed and the statistics on the US labor market. According to Bloomberg experts, the Fed will cut the rate by 25 bps to 1.75% and will signal a pause. CME derivatives give less than 25% probability of monetary expansion in December, but if the data on the States continue to deteriorate, the chances will go up, and the USD index – down. Technically, after reaching the intermediate target by 78.6% according to the "shark" pattern, the risks of a rollback in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave increased. Especially promising for purchases of EUR/USD in the area of 1.1065-1.108. EUR/USD, the daily chart
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| GBP/USD. Labor will not support Boris Johnson's idea of re-election Posted: 25 Oct 2019 07:12 AM PDT Jeremy Corbyn remains the main opposition of Boris Johnson and the main opponent of not only the "hard" Brexit but also the UK's exit from the European Union in general. His party members and allies from other parties support the idea of a second referendum, in which the British will again be allowed to make a choice: to stay in the EU, to leave the EU under a "hard" scenario or necessarily with a "deal". However, the second referendum is still only an idea that remains beautiful on paper, but in reality, it can also be blocked by a majority of votes in the Parliament. Thus, while it is possible to concentrate on the actions and words of Boris Johnson since it is he who remains the protagonist of the "Merlaison Ballet". According to the latest data, Boris Johnson's main goal was the idea of holding re-elections to Parliament, as he was completely disillusioned with the idea of carrying out any Brexit scenario through the current parliamentary composition. Clearly, through the election, Johnson wants to increase his party's strength in the Lower House and bring it to a level where the votes of conservatives and their allies will be enough to make any decisions promoted by the Prime Minister. What will be the results of the elections, we will not guess. We only recall that Theresa May also once organized early elections for this purpose, in reality, the position of the conservatives worsened. But let us pay attention to the fact that to hold early elections to the Parliament, you need the approval of the Parliament itself, at least 2/3 of the deputies. Given that usually Johnson's bills and proposals do not gain even half of the votes of the parliamentarians, the Prime Minister needs support in this issue of the main "rival firm" – the Labor Party. Thus, attention smoothly shifts from Johnson's figure to Corbyn's figure. Jeremy Corbyn said today that his party will not support the idea of re-election to Parliament until the possibility of a Brexit without a "deal" is completely ruled out. According to Johnson, "the current version of the agreement allows for the possibility of Brexit without it." That is, Johnson can implement a "hard" Brexit, according to Corbyn. Boris Johnson himself paused the discussion of Brexit after Parliament refused to consider the entire bill in an emergency mode for three days. And Corbyn wants Johnson to officially close the topic of "hard" Brexit and only after that is ready to return to the idea of holding early parliamentary elections. The EU itself, according to the latest information, is waiting for the UK Parliament to decide on its re-election and discussion of the "deal" and only after that will announce the timing of the transfer of Brexit. Previously, we called the Brexit situation a "dead end." Now, this is a "dead-end in the square." Corbyn will wait for Johnson to completely rule out the possibility of a "hard" Brexit. The EU will wait for Parliament to make a decision. Boris Johnson will wait for some reason and try, with the help of good luck, to pass at least some proposals through the Parliament. Voting for parliamentary elections should take place on Monday or Tuesday. In principle, Boris Johnson can already prepare for his seventh defeat in a row without a single victory. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair – prospects for further movement Posted: 25 Oct 2019 07:12 AM PDT Over the last trading day, the EUR/USD currency pair managed to surprise everyone with its amplitude fluctuation of 70 points, where the quotation almost reached the control point. From technical analysis, we see a gradual recovery process, which was born after the quote felt resistance in the area of the mirror level of 1.1180. To date, we have a 29% recovery relative to the entire value of the oblong correction (October 1-21), which is still quite small, and the characteristic overbought is still present in the market. The emotional component of market participants is gradually leveled, where the symptoms of indecision in terms of considering short positions go by the wayside. In turn, the dynamics of volatility for several days (October21-24) experienced a process of slowing down, which only benefited in terms of recovery of the emotional component of the market. Analyzing the past day hourly, we see that since the morning the euro/dollar pair showed an increased amplitude of oscillation, but the main round of volatility fell on the period of 15:00-18:00 (time on the trading terminal), where there was a local convergence with the subsequent control point of 1.1080 (1.1092). The causes and consequences of fluctuations will be analyzed a little later. As discussed in the previous review, speculators rode the momentum like clockwork. So, the first deals were in the morning at the start of the European session, where we saw a local splash of the euro. After that, at the time of monitoring the news feed, a background worth attention was revealed, where short positions were laid. Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), we see an attempt to restore the initial interest, where everyone carefully analyzes the mark of 1.1080, since, in the case of its breakdown, the recovery will be considered not as an attempt, but as a fact. From global cycles, the quote is still in the main downward trend, and having an oblong correction relative to the trend has a value of only 17.50%. Thus, it is still very early to say goodbye to the downward trend. The news background of the last day was extremely saturated with statistical data on Europe and the United States. So, the PMI of Europe in the manufacturing sector remained at the same level of 45.7, with the forecast growth to 46.1. The composite PMI from Markit came out with a slight increase of 50.1-50.02. In the United States, there were published data on applications for unemployment benefits, where the primary decreased by 6 thousand and repeated by 1 thousand. Preliminary PMI data were unchanged, but orders for durable goods fell, showing a decline of 1.1%. The reaction of the EURUSD pair to the news background was only in the first half of the day, the second half of the day reacted to the information background. In terms of information flow, we had the last meeting of the ECB under the auspices of Mario Draghi, where, in principle, we did not expect anything drastic. Interest rates remained at the same level, 0.00%; -0.50% on deposits, but in the interesting words slipped from the outgoing Draghi. Thus, the former head of the ECB said that interest rates will remain at extremely low levels with a possible reduction, as long as inflation does not rise to the level of two percent. The reaction of the single currency to the meeting and the subsequent press conference was almost absent, perhaps for the reason that nothing was expected of it. Now, we expect all cardinal actions from the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde. So what had the effect of reducing the single currency in the past days? Another hype regarding Brexit. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson said that he intends to hold the final parliamentary elections on December 12, if the EU agrees to postpone Brexit until January 31, 2020. If the postponement lasts a shorter period until November 15 or 30, Johnson will once again try to hold through parliament draft transaction. In turn, the British opposition, represented by the Labor Party, is concerned that in case of early elections, the government may have additional votes to implement the exit plan without a deal. As you know, the background of Brexit was immediately reflected in the rate of the British currency in terms of a downward jump of 127 points, followed by the single currency, having a descent of 59 points. Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have nothing interesting in terms of statistics. In terms of information background, we are waiting for specifics regarding the postponement of Brexit. The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is extremely active, having not only statistics but also the meeting of the Federal Reserve System. According to many experts, the probability of reducing the refinancing rate at the current meeting is available. At the same time, the Brexit deadline (October 31) is coming to an end next week, which will give rise to heat in terms of information flow and comments on the divorce process. The most interesting events displayed below: On Tuesday, October 29th USA 14:00 London time – Composite home price index S&P/CS Composite-20 not seasonally adjusted (y/y) (August) On Wednesday, October 30th USA 13:15 London time – Change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector from ADP (October) USA 13:30 London time – Annual GDP data (Q3 preliminary): Prev. 2.0% – Forecast 1.6% USA 19:00 London time – The Fed meeting, followed by the announcement of the interest rate USA 20:30 London time – Press conference of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Fed On Thursday, October 31st EU 11:00 London time – Gross domestic product (y/y) (Q3 preliminary): Prev 1.2% EU 11:00 London time – Consumer price index (y/y) (October preliminary): Prev 0.8 % – Forecast 0.7% USA 13:30 London time – The number of repeated/primary applications for unemployment benefits On Friday, November 1st USA 13:30 London time – Change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (October): Prev 136K – Forecast 105K USA 13:30 London time – Unemployment rate (October): Prev 3.5% – Forecast 3.6% USA 13:30 London time – Average hourly wage (compared to the same period last year) (y/y) (October): Prev 2.9% – Forecast 3.0% USA 15:00 London time – The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM (October) Further development Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a long-standing sluggish oscillation, where there was an attempt to roll back, but it ended not quite successfully. So, the morning accumulation in terms of consolidation 1.1100/1.1110 was locally nailed up, as we see at low volumes. After that, the reverse process occurred, as if someone made a fixation of previously short positions, and then re-entered them at a more optimal price. In turn, the pivot point remains at the same level in the area of the range of 1.1080/1.1092. Detailing the available time interval minute by minute, we see that the spikes in consolidation came for the period of 08:00-15:00 (trading terminal time), as a fact of having an inverted V-shaped oscillation. In turn, speculators who have open short positions against the background of the information flow, yesterday switched to partial and full fixation of transactions, with a possible restart already at the moment of passing the level of 1.1080. It is likely to assume that in the case of a breakdown of the level of 1.1080, we can see a full recovery of the initial interest with a movement towards 1.1000, but in this development, there is an alternative scenario. So, if the level of 1.1080 does not fall and the ambiguous mood of market participants will remain, then I do not rule out a quote hang in a fairly wide lateral movement of 1.1080-1.1180. In turn, the time-tested method of analyzing the news feed remains unchanged, revealing information about Brexit as early as possible. Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:
Indicator analysis Analyzing different sector timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short and intraday perspective took a downward position at the stage of recovery attempts. The medium-term perspective invariably focuses on the inertia of the past. Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year. Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year. (October 25 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article) The volatility of the current time is 24 points, which is a low value for this period. It is likely to assume that if sellers still manage to push through the mark of 1.1080 and the characteristic Brexit background reappears, volatility may accelerate at times. Otherwise, we will be limited by the available framework. Key levels Resistance zones: 1.1180*; 1.1300**; 1.1450; 1.1550; 1.1650*; 1.1720**; 1.1850**; 1.2100. Support zones: 1.1080**; 1.1000***; 1.0900/1.0950**; 1.0850**; 1.0500***; 1.0350**; 1.0000*** * Periodic level ** Range level *** Psychological level **** FOMO – loss of profits syndrome ***** The article is based on the principle of conducting transactions, with daily adjustments. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Fractal analysis for the cryptocurrencies BTCUSD and Ethereum on October 25th Posted: 25 Oct 2019 07:12 AM PDT Hello, dear colleagues. According to BTCUSD, we follow the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle of October 23; the level of 223.06 is the key resistance and the level of 206.77 is the key support for this structure. For Ethereum, the price is in the correction zone from the downward trend on October 11 and forms the potential for the development of an upward movement from October 23. Forecast for October 25: Analytical review of cryptocurrency in H1 scale:
According to the BTCUSD instrument, the key levels on the H1 scale are 233.26, 229.01, 223.06, 218.95, 211.03, 207.77, 201.56, and 195.16. At the moment, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of October 23. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 218.95 – 223.06 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 229.01. The potential value for the top is the level of 233.26, from which we expect a pullback down. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 211.03 – 206.77 and the breakdown of the last value will have to develop a downward trend. In this case, the first target is 201.56. We consider the level of 195.16 as a potential value for the bottom. The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle from October 23. Trading recommendations: Buy: 219.00 Stop Loss: 211.00 Take Profit: 223.00 Buy: 223.50 Stop Loss: 212.00 Take Profit: 229.00 Sell: 211.00 Stop Loss: 218.50 Take Profit: 207.00 Sell: 206.50 Stop Loss: 213.00 Take Profit: 201.50
For the #Ethereum tool, the key levels on the H1 scale are 171.13, 167.47, 161.38, 158.40, and 153.32. We expect the execution of the expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle from October 23, which should occur to the level of 171.13 and in the area of 167.47 – 171.13 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 161.38 – 158.40 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the subsequent development of the downward trend from October 11. In this case, the first potential target is 153.32. The main trend is the downward structure of October 11, the correction stage. Trading recommendations: Buy: 167.50 Stop Loss: 161.40 Take Profit: 171.10 Buy: 184.50 Stop Loss: 175.00 Take Profit: 193.00 Sell: 161.00 Stop Loss: 164.50 Take Profit: 158.50 Sell: 158.00 Stop Loss: 161.50 Take Profit: 153.50 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 07:12 AM PDT The British pound continues to gradually decline against the US dollar after news that the EU will postpone its decision related to the duration of the next Brexit extension until Monday or Tuesday. This was stated today by EU negotiator Michel Barnier, speaking at a meeting in Brussels. This was done to take into account the results of the vote, which will be held today at the request of the Prime Minister of Great Britain Boris Johnson on the holding of general elections. According to sources, the bloc's proposal will be made on Monday or Tuesday – just 48 hours before the UK is set to leave the EU on October 31. Such news is a "headache" for the head of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbyn, as, judging by his recent statements, the Labor Party was ready to vote for the general election only after the EU grants a delay to the UK to leave until January 31, 2020. As a result of such manipulations, Johnson's election proposal will once again fail. However, traders are in no hurry to get rid of the pound. There is talk that most EU member states want to accept the terms of the extension, under which Brexit could be delayed until January 31, 2020, with the possibility of an earlier exit if the withdrawal agreement is approved by the House of Commons and the European Parliament. As for the technical picture of GBPUSD, it remained unchanged. An unsuccessful attempt to return the bulls of the resistance of 1.2860 may lead to the formation of another downward wave in the trading instrument with the update of the lows 1.2760 and 1.2600. If the bulls can overcome the level of 1.2860 today, we can expect purchases and updates of the resistance of 1.2950. EURUSD Buyers of the European currency failed to break above the important resistance of 1.1120 after the release of weak fundamental data indicating a decline in consumer confidence in Germany amid the growth in the number of layoffs. According to research group GfK, the leading index of consumer confidence in Germany in November 2019 was 9.6 points against 9.8 points in October. Economists had expected the November index to be 9.8 points. As noted above, particular pressure on the index was exerted by the increase in the number of layoffs in the automotive industry. The economic outlook indicator fell to -13.8 points in October from -9.0 points in September. The German business sentiment index remained unchanged in October, which also indicates the problems faced by businesses. However, the expectations of companies have become more positive. According to the Ifo Institute, the index of sentiment in the German business community in October 2019 amounted to 94.6 points, remaining unchanged compared to September. Economists had forecast a decline to 94.5 points. The expectation index rose to 91.5 points in October from 90.9 points in September. Today, an interesting report was also published from analysts at the European Central Bank, which lowered forecasts of GDP and eurozone inflation by the end of 2021. It is expected that real GDP growth in the eurozone in 2019 will be at the level of 1.1%, and in 2020 it will drop to 1%. Growth will resume only by the end of 2021 at 1.3%. As for inflation, its analysts forecast at 1.2% in 2019 and 1.2% in 2020. Growth will begin only by 2021 at 1.4%. In the longer term, inflation will not reach the target level of about 2.0% and amount to 1.7%. This all suggests that the ECB will continue to adhere to measures of soft monetary policy, which will limit the growth of the euro in the long term. As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the bulls need a return of the resistance of 1.1120, as only after that it will be possible to count on a larger upward trend in the area of this month's highs of 1.1180. The probability of maintaining pressure on the euro is also present, but much will depend on the development of the situation around Brexit. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 07:12 AM PDT Good day, dear traders! It is time to remember the USD/JPY, which still hints at further growth. October 23 was a good day for buyers because from the Asian session, the instrument showed a clear bullish momentum. This looks especially interesting, given that there is a good target for purchases – the level of 108.94. Therefore, the recommendation for the near future on this tool is to buy. You can limit the risks either by the minimum of yesterday's US session at the price of 108.50 or by the minimum of October 23 at the quote of 108.26. When the level of 108.26 is broken, the whole scenario can be considered canceled. It is also necessary to take into account that today is Friday, and next week promises to be explosive for the US dollar, the implementation of the entire plan is likely to be delayed until next week.
The trading idea is presented on the basis of the method "price action" and "hunting for stops". I wish you all a good weekend! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 07:12 AM PDT To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: From a technical point of view, nothing has changed compared to the morning forecast. The lack of Brexit news also limits the volatility of the pound. In the first half of the day, the bulls failed to regain the resistance of 1.2860, which may lead to a new wave of decline of the pair. The main task for the US session remains a breakthrough and consolidation above this range, which will be a signal to open long positions capable of updating the highs of 1.2943 and 1.3012, where I recommend taking the profits. If the pressure on the pound continues, only the formation of a false breakdown near the lower border of the current correction channel, as well as the support test of 1.2757 will be a signal to open long positions. Otherwise, it is best to buy GBP/USD on a rebound from the minimum of 1.2664. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: Today, a vote will be held on the proposal of Boris Johnson to hold general elections on December 12 this year. If such a decision is made, which I personally doubt, the pressure on the pound may increase. The bears did not allow today to get above the resistance of 1.2860 in the first half of the day and formed a false breakdown there, which keeps the pair's downward potential. The bears' target remains below the support at 1.2757, which coincides with the lower boundary of the current correction channel, where I recommend taking the profits. The EU has already said that the vote on granting the delay has been postponed to next week, which limits the upward potential of the pound. However, in the case of a breakdown of the resistance of 1.2860, it is best to consider short positions in GBP/USD from larger highs around 1.2943 and 1.3012. Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is below the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a possible decline in the pound in the short term. Bollinger Bands If the pound rises and the upper limit of the indicator breaks in the area of 1.2860, it can expect further upward movement along the trend.
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| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 07:11 AM PDT To open long positions on EURUSD, you need: Data from the IFO Institute of Germany on the indicator of business conditions did not provide serious support to the euro in the first half of the day, as the index remained unchanged in October compared to September. However, buyers managed to cope with the task and came close to the resistance of 1.1120, on which the further growth of the euro depends. The breakdown of this range will update the highs of 1.1149 and 1.1178, where I recommend taking the profits. If the pressure on the euro continues, which is also very likely, it is best to open new long positions in EUR/USD only if a false breakdown is formed at the minimum of 1.1090 or a rebound from the larger support of 1.1060. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need: Sellers did not let the pair go above the resistance of 1.1120, and the formation of a false breakdown there, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast, so far leaves the market on the side of the bears. The main target remains the lower border of the current downward channel, which coincides with the first support level of 1.1090. A breakthrough in this area will increase the pressure on the euro, which will lead the pair to lows in the area of 1.1060 and 1.1026, where I recommend taking the profits. In the case of EUR/USD growth above the resistance of 1.1120 on the data from the University of Michigan, it is best to consider short positions from yesterday's resistance of 1.1149, which was formed after Mario Draghi's press conference. Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is below the 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a bearish advantage. Bollinger Bands It was not possible to break the upper border of the indicator. Calculation of sellers on the lower border test in the area of 1.1095.
Description of indicators
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| BTC 10.25.2019 - Sell zone for Bitcoin, bearish flag in play Posted: 25 Oct 2019 06:32 AM PDT Bitcoin has been trading upwards exactly what we expected yesterday. The level around 7.700 looks very attractive for potential selling opportunities. I expect more downside and potential test of 6.610.
Green rectangle – Resistance and good sell zone Blue horizontal line – Support line and downward objective Rising purple trend lines – Bear flag in creation MACD is showing us strong new downside momentum in the background and I expect more downside after the bullish correction. Resistance level is found 7.700 and support level at 6.610. Bollinger band middle line(resistance line) is set at 7.635 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD 10.25.2019 - First downward target at the price of 1.279 reached Posted: 25 Oct 2019 06:15 AM PDT GBP/USD made to our first downward target at 1.2790. I see that there is still more downside potential and eventual test of our next downward targets at 1.2700 and 1.2545.
Orange upper rectangle – Main support levels and our downward objectives Upward slopping purple line – Broken rising wedge pattern and bear flag MACD is showing new momentum down on GBP, which his good sign that we got fresh new money to the downside. You should focus on managing your short position and eventually exit around 1.2700. Intraday preferences: I would scalp selling on the rallies. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Gold 10.25.2019 - Gold near our main upward objective at 1.517 Posted: 25 Oct 2019 05:36 AM PDT Gold has been trading upwards, exactly what I expected yesterday. The price is heading towards our main target at 1.517. If you got any long position from yesterday, it is good time to secure on the breakout. You can also add long on the any dip on 5/15 minute time-frame.
Orange upper rectangle – Main resistance and our upward target Upward slopping purple line – Expected path MACD is showing new momentum high on the Gold, which his good sign that we got fresh new money upside. You should focus on managing your long position and eventually exit around 1.517. Intraday preferences: I would prefer buying the dip strategy on the intraday frames like 15/30 minute time-frame till potential test of 1.517. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair – prospects for further movement Posted: 25 Oct 2019 04:16 AM PDT The pound/dollar currency pair gained volume again, showing high volatility of 161 points, which means that the previously voiced theory still works. From technical analysis (TA), we see that after a slight stop on October 23, the quote still managed to regroup trading forces and resume the recovery process. Earlier, we have discussed that the market hung some ambiguity in the actions, where, having like a huge overbought paired with the development of the psychological level of 1.3000, sellers still cannot be lured out of the symptom of FOMO (syndrome of lost profits) of the past inertial course. So, the period of October 21-23 showed a slowdown in volatility (137-137-80 points), which to some extent served as a healing process in terms of comprehension. Thus, the theory that the slowdown in terms of the decline in volatility will help to give the market a round of new jumps, with the opportunity to recover, almost coincided with the expectation. Examining every hour of the last day, we see the characteristic impulsive leaps directed downward. The main price movement came in the period of 16:00-19:00 (time on the trading terminal), where the quote managed to touch the range level of 1.2770, then forming a rebound. The subsequent oscillation was in terms of horizontal movement, with a rather narrow amplitude of 1.2835/1.2864. As discussed in the previous review, speculators even before the decline in volatility (October 23) left previously opened short positions, with the premise that there is characteristic indecision of sellers and it is necessary to wait a little longer. As we can see, the results did not have to wait long, and on October 24, volatility resumed, and it was in terms of further recovery, which once again returned to the market speculators, but at more attractive entry points. In turn, conservative traders do not rush to hasty actions, and the entry into the market was considered only after a clear fixation of the price below 1.2770 or in the case of another FOMO and a fixation higher than 1.3000. Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), we see a clear attempt to restore the downward interest, but, again, "attempt" – no more. It's still very early to say that recovery is underway right now since there is not even 40% of the development relative to the past inertial stroke. Thus, it turns out that the emotional background of market participants is still preserved to some extent, and the characteristic overbought invariably hangs, but at the same time does not frighten these very participants in the process. In terms of market movement, we have the following picture: • A period of 12 years is a constant downward trend to this day. • A period of 1.5 years – holding a downward trend, with the prerequisites of a fracture. • The period from the beginning of 2019 – V-shaped oscillation with almost 74% of the working of the downward course, having at the moment a vertical movement formed against the background of emotional and information flow. The news background of the day was full of statistics from the United States. So, the number of applications for unemployment benefits, including primary and repeated, decreased by 7 thousand. Preliminary PMI was unchanged, but orders for durable goods collapsed, showing a decline of 1.1%. The reaction of the American dollar to poor statistics in the United States was in terms of green paper growth. What is the reason for such a striking discrepancy? The reason is the same – the information background regarding the divorce proceedings Brexit. So what happened this time in this long-running comedy series? British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that if the European Union agrees to postpone Brexit for three months, he will offer to hold early parliamentary elections on December 12. If the EU grants a delay until November 15 or 30, Boris Johnson will once again try to get a draft deal through parliament. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the House of Commons, said the government will formally submit a proposal for early elections on October 28. To conduct them, Johnson needs to obtain the consent of two-thirds of the total number of deputies. The reaction of the pound to such a move was predictable and displayed the same downward rally, which was written at the beginning of the article. In turn, the leader of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbyn, said they were ready for an early election, but they needed guarantees to prevent a hard exit. "Exclude the possibility of Britain leaving the EU without an agreement, and we will support the election. I called for early elections from the very beginning, because the country needs to solve the problems of social injustice. But for this, the probability of Brexit should be excluded without a deal," Jeremy Corbyn said. Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have nothing interesting in terms of statistics. In terms of information background, we are waiting for specifics regarding the postponement of Brexit. The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is full of statistics for every color and taste. The key events are the Federal Reserve meeting and the report of the United States Department of Labor. At the same time, the Brexit deadline (October 31) is coming to an end next week, which will give rise to heat in terms of information flow and comments on the divorce process. The most interesting events displayed below: On Tuesday, October 29th Great Britain 10:30 London time – Bank of England consumer lending (September) Great Britain 10:30 London time – The volume of mortgage lending (September): Prev. 3.85V – Forecast 4.20V USA 14:00 London time – Composite home price index S&P/CS Composite-20 not seasonally adjusted (y/y) (August) On Wednesday, October 30th USA 13:15 London time – Change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector from ADP (October) USA 13:30 London time – Annual GDP data (Q3 preliminary): Prev. 2.0% – Forecast 1.6% USA 19:00 London time – The Fed meeting, followed by the announcement of the interest rate USA 20:30 London time – Press Conference of the Federal Open Market Federal Reserve Committee On Thursday, October 31st USA 13:30 London time – The number of repeated/primary applications for unemployment benefits On Friday, November 1st USA 13:30 London time – Change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (October): Prev 136K – Forecast 105K USA 13:30 London time – Unemployment rate (October): Prev 3.5% – Forecast 3.6% USA 13:30 London time – Average hourly wage (compared to the same period last year) (y/y) (October): Prev 2.9% – Forecast 3.0% USA 15:00 London time – The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM (Oct) Further development Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a very remarkable slowdown in the framework of 1.2834/1.2864, with local border gaps, candle shadows. We got a platform to jump on, which everyone has seen for quite some time. In turn, speculators fixed profits at the time of convergence with the key level of 1.2770 moved into a waiting phase, where, having such a remarkable slowdown, all are preparing for the next entry into the market. As you may have guessed, the method, in this case, is "Breakdown of boundaries at the moment of inertial motion". It is possible to assume that the existing stagnation will last for an extremely short time, and most have already noticed it, thus a breakdown may occur shortly. Tactics – monitoring of borders on the subject of inertia of the cross from the subsequent entry in the direction of inertia. At the same time, we carefully analyze the news feed for information regarding Brexit to put the most correct forecast for the further movement of the pound. Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:
Indicator analysis Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short and intraday term signal a downward course, where the minute intervals vary in the range, and the hour intervals are focused on the earlier downward momentum. The medium-term outlook invariably maintains an upward mood against the background of the emotional-inertial course that we saw earlier (October 10-21). Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year. Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year. (October 25 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article) The volatility of the current time is 39 points, which is a low indicator for this period. It is likely to assume that against the background of stagnation and a possible surge, we can see an acceleration in volatility. Key levels Resistance zones: 1.3000; 1.3170**; 1.3300**. Support zones: 1.2770**; 1.2700*; 1.2620; 1.2580*; 1.2500**; 1.2350**; 1.2205(+/-10p.)*; 1.2150**; 1.2000***; 1.1700; 1.1475**. * Periodic level ** Range level *** The article is based on the principle of conducting transactions, with daily adjustments. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Gold: between $1400 and $1700 – one dash? Posted: 25 Oct 2019 04:16 AM PDT
The yellow metal, frozen in the current price range, gives the impression of an asset that retains stability. However, experts warn: this calm is deceptive. Gold is preparing for another rise in prices, experts believe. Currently, the value of the precious metal continues to consolidate in the narrow range of $1507–$1508 per 1 ounce. On Thursday, October 24, it did not exceed $1492–$1494 per 1 ounce.
Gold continues the corrective movement, and the market forms a consolidation range around the level of $1490. Experts admit the possibility of reducing to $1490 and below, to $1460, to the 100-day moving average. In the case of negative developments, analysts do not rule out a sharp drop to $1400 per 1 ounce. The pessimistic scenario for gold suggests that the price of the precious metal, not holding at $1460 per 1 ounce, will sink to $1400 and test the 200-day moving average, which is a key support level in the yellow metal market. Currently, it has formed "bullish" trends, which continue to strengthen. According to currency strategists of the Australian-New Zealand Bank ANZ, the fair value of the precious metal is $1400 per 1 ounce. The key pricing factors are the Fed's interest rates, US inflation, and the US currency exchange rate. Experts drew attention to the danger that lies in wait for gold in the event of a fall to $1400 per 1 ounce. They are confident that such sharp subsidence could catapult the precious metal to the $1700 per 1 ounce mark over the next six months. It turns out that the distance between $1400 and $1700 can be overcome in one jerk, as the decline in the price of gold will attract many investors to the market, which will provoke another price rally. The probability of such an outcome is very high, since the precious metal is considered an excellent asset for portfolio diversification, and investors are waiting for the right moment to increase their positions in gold. In general, market expectations for the precious metal are optimistic. However, many believe that the "golden" stagnation will not last long and there will be a denouement. The current calm before the storm will end either in a recession or in growth. The price of gold is preparing to break through either the upper line or the lower, after which the market will face a strong movement. In the short term, experts do not expect a drastic and prolonged fall in the value of the precious metal. They recommend to monitor the dynamics of the price of gold but warn that the yellow metal can significantly rise in price next year. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 04:16 AM PDT Good day, dear traders! Once again, I congratulate those who took advantage of my recommendation, which was published yesterday morning. And yesterday, at the end of the American session, this plan was fully implemented. The GBPUSD pair fell exactly to the target level of 1.28351. This was only the first goal, but a very significant one. The risk/profit ratio is extremely profitable. If you left part of the position to the second goal – I recommend doing it with a volume of 1/3-14 of the size of the initial position. Good luck with trading and see you at the evening review. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 03:55 AM PDT GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2836), however, there was no rebound from this level of correction. The rebound of quotations from this level will allow us to count on some growth of the pair in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.3044). Fixing the pound/dollar pair under the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% (1.2668). A bullish divergence has formed in the CCI indicator, which increases the probability of rebounding from the Fibo level by 61.8%. The British currency, following the example of the euro, made a return to the correction level of 61.8% (1.2836). What was the reason for this? Yesterday's economic reports concerned only the US dollar and should have created pressure on this currency. It should be recalled once again that the growth of the pound by 700 points in just 7 days was not associated with economic data from the UK or the US. It was based solely on traders' positive expectations regarding the Brexit issue. These expectations have come true only by half, and economic reports by traders of the GBP/USD pair are quietly ignored. Thus, the fall of the pair in recent days is associated with the return to the markets of negative expectations on the issue of Brexit. Boris Johnson failed to implement Brexit as he wanted until October 31, failed to implement a "No Deal" Brexit and may now repeat Theresa May's fate. I remind you briefly that Theresa May also failed to push her deal through Parliament. Three times, deputies blocked her version of the agreement, called the "Checkers". After that, Theresa May called re-election to parliament and it worsened the position of the conservatives. As a result, she had to leave her post and was replaced by Boris Johnson, who from the very beginning of his reign had a worse position in parliament than Ms. May. He similarly failed to implement Brexit, failed to convince parliament to vote for the agreement, which can be safely called the "Theresa May's Agreement", and now the Prime Minister also wants to hold re-elections to parliament, hoping to increase the number of conservatives and, accordingly, the votes that will unequivocally support his initiatives. However, the effect, as in the case of May, may be the opposite. Now, the name of Boris Johnson is closely associated with Brexit "No Deal". People in the UK probably understand that if the chance to leave the EU without a deal presents itself, then Johnson certainly will not miss it. Thus, voting for conservatives potentially means increasing the chances of Brexit "No Deal". The more 100% of the votes Johnson has at his disposal, the less likely he will be to try to implement Brexit with an agreement. By voting for Labor, the likelihood of a second referendum increases and the likelihood of Brexit's "No Deal" is significantly reduced. What to expect from the pound/dollar currency pair today? The pound/dollar pair fell to the correction level of 61.8% once again. I am waiting for quotes to close below this level today, despite the bullish divergence, as I believe that the upward momentum has exhausted itself. There is no information background today, again we will have to follow only the news from UK politics. The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of March 13, 2019, and September 3, 2019. Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations: I recommend buying the pair with a target of 1.3044 if the rebound from the Fibo level of 61.8% with the stop-loss order below the level of 1.2836 is performed. I recommend considering selling the pair with the target of 1.2668 if the consolidation under the Fibo level of 61.8% is performed. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 02:03 AM PDT Fundamental issues: Yesterday the Dow dropped on weak earnings from 3m but overall the US markets were bought on dips in this earning season so far. In light of Boeing's report on upbeat earnings for Q3, its stocks picked up. So, if I am right and the Fed puts interest rates on hold next Wednesday, GBP is going to drop back deeper as we have already seen this week. Selling in GBPUSD is going on. Levels to watch: How did I do? YESTERDAY I SAID>>> I am looking to sell 1.2950, stop above today's high, target 1.2785. The RESULT? GBP/USD was sold at 1.2928 in the US session and dropped to 1.2789 TODAY: I am looking to sell at 1.2890, stop above 1.2935, target 1.2750 OVERALL: This week, sell any rally into 1.2970 Next week: if we see any move into 1.3050 I will short
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| Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 25, 2019 Posted: 25 Oct 2019 01:35 AM PDT Overview: The NZD/USD pair continued moving upwards from the level of 0.6374. The pair rose from the level of 0.6374 (weekly support) to the top around 0.6423. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.6455. A clear break above that area could lead price to the neutral zone in the nearest term. Price will test 0.6455, because in general, we remain bullish on August 16th, 2019. This week, the market moved from its bottom at 0.6374 and continued to rise towards the top of 0.6423. Today, on the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. In consequence, the NZD/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at the level of 0.6374. The level of 0.6374 is expected to act as the major support today. We expect the NZD/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend towards the target levels of 0.6455, 0.6480, 0.6506 and 0.6540. Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.6455 (minor resistance), the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 0.6455 (the level of 0.6455 coincides with tha ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement). If a breakout happens at the support level of 0.6374, then this scenario may be invalidated. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| ECB and Brexit pull the euro to the bottom Posted: 25 Oct 2019 01:17 AM PDT The single European currency was in a difficult situation: between the hammer of Brexit and the anvil of the monetary policy of the European regulator. Experts fear that in case of negative developments, the euro, along with the pound and the US dollar, will begin to sink. These fears are not unfounded: the "European" is already trying to find the bottom, analysts say. An unstable external background undermines the European currency, which is stubbornly trying to resist. On the one hand, it is traumatized by a kind of "swing" with the protracted signing of an agreement on Britain's exit from the EU, and on the other, a difficult situation related to the monetary policy of the ECB. These factors put a lot of pressure on the euro, experts say. To them are also added a slowdown in the global economy and a decline in economic growth in the eurozone. This was mentioned in his report by Mario Draghi before resigning as head of the ECB. In his last speech, the head of the European regulator confirmed the need for long-term incentive measures in the current monetary policy. M. Draghi is sure that this is necessary to maintain basic inflationary pressures and the development of inflation in the medium term. A comprehensive package of incentive measures will provide monetary incentives that will help soften borrowing conditions for companies and households, M. Draghi noted. He confirmed the previous decision regarding the purchase of ECB assets from November 1 of this year in the amount of € 20 billion per month. The regulator kept the key rate at the previous position, left the interest rate on loans at a zero level, the deposit rate at minus 0.5% per annum, and the margin loan rate at 0.25% per annum. Analyzing the speech of the former head of the ECB, experts agree that M. Draghi's attempt to help the European currency is worthy of respect, but it looks weak. It looks like a requiem for a "European." No wonder M. Draghi mentioned that the eurozone economy is on the verge of stagnation, although he noted that the popularity of the euro has never been higher than now. Nevertheless, the position of the single currency is shaken by internal contradictions between the economies of the eurozone. Fuel to the fire is added by the slowdown of the German economy and the instability of the Italian economy. Experts find it difficult to answer where the economic vector of the eurozone will go and how the European currency will behave. After the ECB meeting and the speech of M. Draghi, the EUR / USD pair sank sharply, having fallen in price by 0.2% and dropping to the minimum value of 1.1112. On the morning of Friday, October 25, the pair was able to catch up and return to a neutral position at the level of 1.1105–1.1106. Many analysts predict a significant subsidence of the European currency. They are confident that the euro will sink to the bottom in the coming months, from which it will be very difficult to get out. More so, currency strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe that the fall of the "European" will open the way for the US dollar. The US currency will grow in the short term, overtaking a colleague in the pair. In addition, the European currency will be outsiders by the end of this year, having dropped to a critical level of 1.0800, according to the bank. A similar position is held by many experts. Some of them are not so pessimistic and give the euro a chance, believing that the sinking of the euro will not exceed 1.1087. To implement this scenario, sellers of the EUR / USD pair need to overcome the level of 1.1110. It can be noted that the pair has already tested this level today. At the same time, experts draw attention to the importance of the 1.1210 indicator for the EUR / USD pair, where the 200-day moving average and key Fibonacci level are located. The recent rally of the euro has slightly weakened the downward trend, but the risk of collapse still remains. According to some analysts, the level near 1.1000 is a "pain threshold" for long positions in the euro. At the moment, the EUR / USD pair has risen to the range of 1.1120–1.1121, while experts admit its reversal to testing the bottom. Therefore, experts find it difficult to answer whether the European currency can withstand the pressure of a number of traumatic external factors. At present, its dynamics inspire market participants. Nevertheless, they hope for the stability and internal strength of the "European currency", which will win the economic ring sooner or later. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Simplified wave analysis of GBP/USD and USD/JPY on October 25th Posted: 25 Oct 2019 12:55 AM PDT GBP/USD Analysis: In the last 3 months, a bullish trend has been forming on the pound chart. The current wave level allows us to classify its scale to the level of H4. Since the end of last week, the price is adjusted in a flat corridor between the counter zones. Forecast: During the next sessions, it is expected to complete the current decline, the formation of a reversal and the beginning of a price rise. Volatility is likely to increase if the exchange rate changes. A short-term puncture of the lower border of support is not excluded. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.3000/1.3030 - 1.2890/1.2920 Support: - 1.2810/1.2780 Recommendations: Sales of the pound today are possible only with intra-session trading of a reduced lot. It is safer to refrain from entering the pair's market until the correction is completed by tracking the buy signals at its end.
USD/JPY Analysis: Since August, the trend direction of the Japanese yen against the dollar is upward. The wave entered the final stage. Over the past week, the price formed a corrective plane, increasing its wave level. Forecast: Today, the pair is expected to continue moving in the sideways price channel. In the second half of the day, a downward movement vector is more likely. The beginning of the price rise can be expected at the end of the day, or at the beginning of the next week. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 108.80/109.10 Support: - 108.20/107.90 Recommendations: Until the current correction is completed, trading is possible only within the intraday. A lot more sensible to reduce. The priority is selling the pair. When the price reaches the support zone, it is recommended to look for entry points into long positions.
Explanations: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), the waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, dotted – the expected movement. Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the length of time the tool moves! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Hot forecast for EUR / USD on 10/25/2019 and trading recommendation Posted: 25 Oct 2019 12:26 AM PDT The outgoing head of the European Central Bank, said that interest rates will remain at their current or lower level until inflation forecasts show a steady approach to the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, he said this in the second sentence. That is, with these words, the farewell press conference of Mario Draghi began. Given that inflation is not growing, and rather demonstrates the desire to fall into deflation, it is safe to say that the European Central Bank, already under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, will reduce the refinancing rate in the near future. Moreover, even before the end of this year, we can become witnesses to a historic moment when the refinancing rate in Europe becomes negative. However, we did not see the collapse of the single European currency, and thus, investors were largely expecting something like that. After all, it was obvious to everyone that the next step would be to lower the refinancing rate after the European Central Bank lowered the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. The only question was what Mario Draghi himself would do, or would he lay this responsibility on the fragile female shoulders of Christine Lagarde. However, any answer to this question does not inspire optimism, since if the European Central Bank is forced to reduce all interest rates to a negative level, then things in the Old World are, to put it mildly, very, very bad. The EUR / USD pair still managed to maintain at least some, but still a recovery process, relative to the main inertial move. Therefore, working out the mirror level of 1.1180 was not in vain and the quotation was partially possible. Nevertheless, it was possible to restore the mood of the sellers, where in a complex, with an information background, letting us down to the area of 1.1092, that is, practically to the next level of 1.1080. In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we have the prerequisites for recovery, but the quote is still high and remains quite strong in terms of emotional and informational background. It is likely to suggest that with respect to oscillations, we can temporarily pullback, with a subsequent slowdown. At the same time, the analysis of a more significant decline should be analyzed after fixing the price below the level of 1.1080. Concretizing all of the above into trading signals: - Long positions are considered in terms of local pullback, in the case of price fixing higher than 1.1115. - Short positions are advised to be considered after fixing the price below the level of 1.1080. From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that there is confirmation of the recovery process in terms of hourly intervals - a signal about sales. Short-term segments [minute periods], in turn, work in the pullback phase - a signal about purchases. Medium term [daily periods], all also reflect an earlier inertia.  |
| Posted: 25 Oct 2019 12:15 AM PDT The events of Thursday fully demonstrate the dichotomy of the situation in the world markets, which are still held hostage by a number of reasons which cause high volatility. On Thursday, ECB's meeting on monetary policy took place. It was the last for the outgoing president of the bank M. Draghi. The European regulator left interest rates unchanged as expected, but at a press conference, Draghi described the prospects for the European economy pessimistically and reported on the need for an ultra-soft monetary policy amid "substantially outweighing the risks". In fact, he gave his successor C. Lagarde the order to stimulate the economy with the possibility of adjusting the situation if inflation in the region is reviving. Also yesterday, data were published on the US economy, which caused a mixed reaction in the markets. According to the data presented, basic orders for durable goods, as well as their volume, fell more than expected. On a monthly basis, orders fell 0.3% in September against the August value of 0.3% and the forecast for a decline of 0.2%. The volume, on the other hand, fell sharply by 1.1% against expectations of a decline of 0.5% in September and growth in August by 0.3%. In the wake of these data, gold quotes broke out of the narrow range in which it had been for the past two weeks, but at the same time, paradoxically, this growth was not supported by either a weakening yield on American treasuries (the yield on 10-year securities grew) or the appreciation other defensive assets are the yen and the Swiss franc. It should also be noted that the trading volumes were not any significant. It seems that someone was actively buying gold, taking advantage of the low activity on this asset in recent weeks due to the uncertainty surrounding the resolution of the situation on Brexit and trade negotiations between the US and China. Moreover, it should also be noted that the growth of quotations of the "yellow metal" did not "beat" with a local strengthening of the dollar, as evidenced by the dynamics of the dollar index ICE. And still, American statistics could not spoil the mood of the investors in the stock market in the States, where generally, positive moods reigned, supported by excellent corporate reporting by Microsoft and PayPal, whose stocks increased by 2.0% and 8.6%, respectively. Today, the attention of the market will be drawn to the meeting in the EU on the Brexit issue. If a decision is made on the postponement, this may provide local support for the pound rate and, quite possibly, slightly push down the gold quotes. Forecast of the day: GBP/USD is trading above the support level of 1.2840. If a decision is made today at the EU summit to postpone Britain's exit from the EU until the beginning of next year, this could support the pair, and it will grow to 1.3000. The inability of gold to grow above the level of 1510.00 and a decline below the level of 1500.50 may return quotes to the previous range of 1476.80-1495.50.  |
| Trading plan for EUR/USD for October 25, 2019 Posted: 24 Oct 2019 11:43 PM PDT
Technical outlook: The EUR/USD correction from 1.1180 levels might have been completed at 1.1100 or would complete around 1.1085 levels. The 50% retracement of the rally between 1.0990 and 1.1180 is at 1.1085. A bullish turn could be expected most likely if prices manage to reach there. Looking at the wave structure, EUR/USD bulls should remain poised to push through 1.1250 levels in the short term with prices staying above 1.0990 levels. Please also note that the previous resistance is seen through 1.1250, while major support is at 1.0879 which could be confirmed as a meaningful bottom formation. Depending on which recent upswing is being worked upon, we can expect a bullish reversal from either the current levels or through 1.0990 levels (in case a larger retracement is under way). In either case, the bullish outlook and structure shall remain valid until prices stay above 1.0879 levels going forward. Trading plan: Remain long and add further on dips, stop at 1.0879 and target 1.1250, 1.1450 and higher. Good luck! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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