It’s Time to Take Profits on Oil

Jeff Clark's Market Minute

It's Time to Take Profits on Oil

All of a sudden… everybody likes oil.

All it took was a 20% rally off of the lows in October to shift investor sentiment on oil from bearish to bullish. Well, that plus a drone strike. And now, most of the financial television talking heads are expecting higher oil prices.

Of course, that has me concerned.

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We turned bullish on oil back in October, when a barrel of the gooey black stuff was trading near $52. It closed at $63 per barrel on Friday. That’s a nice 21% gain in three months.

We didn’t perform any complicated analysis. We didn’t try to project the supply/demand curve for oil. We didn’t forecast the global economic growth expectations. We didn’t count the number of oil rigs in operation or analyze the inventory situation.

All we did was look at the price chart of oil, and follow the one rule that seems to work so well when trading commodities… Buy at support, and sell at resistance.

Here’s an updated look at the chart…

For the past seven months, oil has been trading in a wide range between $51 and $63 per barrel. We recommended oil in Market Minute in October when it was trading at the lower end of that range.

It closed Friday at the upper end of that range.

So, it’s time to sell.

Yes, there’s a risk that we’re leaving some money on the table. After all, if tensions in the Middle East escalate even more, then the price of oil could break out of its trading range and rally towards the April high near $66.

But, there’s also a chance that tensions could cool a bit and oil will pull back from resistance and stay inside its trading range.

So, it’s best to simply follow the same rule that got us into the oil trade in the first place… Buy at support and sell at resistance.

Oil closed Friday at resistance. It’s time to sell.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

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