The last flight out

Bill Bonner’s Diary

The Last Flight Out

By Bill Bonner

Bill Bonner

Week 7 of the Quarantine

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – “The last flight out” was how it was described in the email.

The U.S. embassy in Buenos Aires notified us yesterday that it had organized a flight to Miami. It is scheduled to leave tomorrow.

But why the “last flight?” we wondered. Then we got the news.

Reuters:

Argentina has banned until September ticket sales for commercial flights, according to a decree published on Monday, in a new measure the government said is part of its coronavirus response.

While the country’s borders have been closed since March, the new decree goes a step further in preventing until September 1 the sale and purchasing of commercial flights to, from, or within Argentina.

We had only planned to come for a few weeks. Now, it looks as though we may be here until September.

“It’s a good thing we like it here,” said Elizabeth, looking on the bright side.

“I’m not complaining either,” we replied. “But it would be nice to have an open door.”

The Argentine government opened a different door. But only a crack. Most people are allowed outside now, but only for an hour a day. And they’re not supposed to go more than 500 meters from home.

Here on the farm at least, we can go out all we want… and go as far as we want, on horseback or on foot.

“If we’re going to be stuck here for another four months,” Elizabeth continued, always urging self-improvement, “we should plan to do something worthwhile with our time.”

“Like what?”

“Oh, I don’t know… learn to play the piano… learn cattle ranching?”

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Flimflam and Fraud

Meanwhile, back in the USA, the scam goes on:

U.S. banks were girding on Monday for another chaotic dash to grab US$310 billion in fresh small business aid due to be released by the government, after it changed some of the rules of the first-come-first-served program at the 11th hour.

The Small Business Administration (SBA) was set to re-open its Paycheck Protection Program at 10:30 a.m. EDT, allowing lenders to resume processing applications from businesses hurt by the novel coronavirus shutdown.

The bigness of the flimflam is breathtaking.

Stunning Fact About the Top 2 Stocks During COVID-19 Crisis…

Already, the feds have committed nearly a third of GDP to “fight the virus.” And still, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – all are proposing to spend trillions more.

Says the rascal Steve Mnuchin: “We need to spend what it takes to win the war.”

It is a scam on several levels.

First, the “war” is fake. This is a public health crisis, not a war. Calling it a “war” is just a way to get people to salute the leaders they should hold in contempt.

Second, the feds are not fighting the virus. Doctors, nurses, and hospitals are fighting the virus. The feds turned a natural disaster into a man-made economic disaster.

Third, they are now desperately trying to save a failed financial system… and taking advantage of the crisis to bail out cronies, reward campaign donors, expand the Deep State, and enhance their own power.

Fourth, the feds have no money saved to give in “aid” or “stimulus.” Every penny must come from the people they pretend to be aiding.

Fifth, the money they give out is fake… In its most tangible form, it is nothing more than paper with green ink on it. It represents no goods, no services, no earnings, no wealth, and no savings.

Sixth, like a phony claim ticket at a hat-check booth, this kind of fake money merely entitles the people who get it – the cronies, the chislers, the insiders – to take someone else’s coat.

A Sneak Peek Inside Apple's 5G iPhone?

Seventh, providing an economy with fake money does not cause it to produce more goods and services. Instead, it sours the whole system… misleads investors and consumers… and reduces real output.

Eighth, the most common and destructive effect of this scam is inflation. First, asset prices are inflated. Later, consumer prices rise, too, eventually washing out every penny of stimulus spending – and more.

Looking Through the Damage

It is impossible to know exactly how these multiple frauds will play out.

Today, stocks are moving up as investors anticipate trillions in new money… and an easing of the lockdown conditions. A headline at Bloomberg:

U.S. Stocks Don’t Need to Fall on Economic Damage, Goldman Says

The report suggests that investors might “look through” the crisis damage to the prosperity on the other side.

But you can’t create real wealth with fake money. And cronyism destroys wealth; it doesn’t create it.

So we probably have not seen the last of Mr. Bear Market… Stock prices are likely to fall again, as the costs of the lockdown are tallied.

The bad news will then encourage the feds to even greater insanity. More money-printing, that is.

Stock prices could rise sharply. But, at some point, we should see consumer prices rise, too – eventually rising more than asset prices.

Stocks could soar, as they did in Zimbabwe and Venezuela.

But in real money terms (that is, in terms of gold) stock prices will almost surely go down – along with the dollar… the economy… and the American Empire.

Stay tuned.

Regards,

signature

Bill

Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

FEATURED READS

We Need Free Markets to Restart the Economy
As Bill keeps repeating: It’s capitalism on the way up… cronyism on the way down. According to The Hill, having free markets will be crucial to reopening the economy… and solving its problems long-term...

This Crisis Will Cause Gold to Reach New Highs
Former hedge fund manager Teeka Tiwari isn’t always on the gold train. But he agrees with Bill and Tom that it’s the best disaster insurance you can have. Here’s what he expects is next for the metal...

MAILBAG

Some Dear Readers have harsh words for Bill about COVID-19...

Your valid points are obfuscated by your prejudiced remarks about helping those who have lost their jobs due to no fault of their own. You do not recognize the value of cutting the spread of the virus, regardless of the age or the existing medical condition of the average citizen.

– Charlie N.

Let me put this into financial market technical analysis terms for you. In following the market, which is enormously complex, and for which you have imperfect knowledge and/or information, you follow trends and patterns to give some indication of the direction it might go, do you not? And all you have to follow is the final end result of numerous individual events and happenings – and all that matters in the end – the price.

Ignore, for a moment, the extreme morbidity associated with COVID-19. Despite a number of people who, thankfully, experience more mild-to-moderate symptoms, there remain a SIGNIFICANT (10-20%?) number of people – of all ages and health – who will experience symptoms that, although not fatal, will require a month or two off work... as well as a very expensive hospitalization. This economic impact, if left unchecked, would be far worse than a month or two of shutdown now.

Instead, for this technical analysis, let’s just examine the end result – the overall death rate from ALL causes. That way we don’t get bogged down in whether the COVID-19 numbers are accurate, or just exactly what the death rate is, etc. One can assume that the divergence from norm is COVID-19. The overall death rate in every country has crashed through not only the 50- and 200-day moving averages, but the 100-year moving average. And that is AFTER the “market circuit breakers” have been tripped (shelter-at-home orders). Follow your own advice and follow your stop losses. Shelter at home. Because what is at risk are lives – not mere dollars that may be recovered in a market recovery.

– Scott B.

I disagree with the idea that COVID-19 it just the flu. Yes, impact was estimated to be much higher but IF WE DID NOTHING! All you have to do is look at states that took early action versus their neighbors that waited, even just a week, some states longer. Kentucky is one example. They acted early and their rates are far better than any of their neighboring states. Most, if not all, of their hot spots are where there is considerable interaction with another state. Yes, this is like the flu in that if you stay home when you are sick, you won’t spread it. Just think how many that wouldn’t have to die from the flu if just some of the commonsense measures (stay home when sick, wash your hands, cover your cough and sneezes) were followed.

However, unlike any flu, there are those that have it and are very contagious that do not have symptoms. Far more people have died from this in just a few weeks than those who died from the flu all of last year. And we haven’t even peaked yet.

– Karen F.

Meanwhile, other Dear Readers praise Bill’s economic and political analysis...

Great article on the state of our country! It’s so plain to see that once gold was removed as the asset behind our currency, the feds could print endless amounts of money and encumber the future of our children’s children! Here’s the thing: As I see it, Trump is the enemy of those in Washington and their grab for power. He has been draining the Swamp and the Swamp is hitting back with everything they have, all in the name of progressivism!

Just started reading your articles and it is so plain to see for those who have eyes and ears to hear.

– Larry K.

I’m a long-term fan of reading these extreme reviews of what’s happening since the beginning of the 21st century. The analysis is plausible because the findings and projections are presented logically and underpinned with facts and statistics. I taught college-level macro and microeconomics, and have always been convinced that capitalism works best in a free economy.

Absent cronyism, absent politically based injections of funds to aid illegal aliens, absent illogical treaties that provide sworn enemies of both capitalism and the U.S. with funding and nuclear capability, absent tampering with interest rates, absent changing formulas like the one used to calculate the inflation rate and, last but not least, absent the government’s saving of large U.S. companies that have proven their inability to compete against efficient companies run by creative, flexible managers. Looking forward to reading your next publication, as only clear thinking can save us.

– Arthur W.

Is Bill missing the mark in his analysis of COVID-19? Is Trump the enemy of the swamp in Washington, as Larry believes? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…

Why America’s New “Digital Dollar” Won’t Come Cheap

The coronavirus stimulus bill originally contained a dark secret…

An early draft of the “Take Responsibility For Workers And Families Act”... 

Contained 31 references to the “digital dollar.” 

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