Forex analysis review |
- Forecast for EUR/USD on May 20, 2020
- Forecast for AUD/USD on May 20, 2020
- Forecast for USD/JPY on May 20, 2020
- AUDJPY close to ascending channel resistance and broke below trendline support
- USDJPY seeing potential for further upside!
- Control zones for USDJPY on 05/20/20
- Control zones of USDCHF on 05/20/20
- Control zones for USDCAD on 05/20/20
- Hot forecast and intraday trading signals for the GBP/USD pair for May 20. COT report. Bulls need to confidently overcome
- Hot forecast and intraday trading signals for the EUR/USD pair for May 20. COT report. Bears are ready to push and return
- Overview of the GBP/USD pair. May 20. Jerome Powell and Steven Mnuchin fear a prolonged "lockdown" and call on the government
- Overview of the EUR/USD pair. May 20. Sweden, the Netherlands, Austria, and Denmark oppose the plan of Angela Merkel and
- USDJPY shows signs of strength....
- Short-term Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EURUSD for May 19, 2020.
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Merkel and Macron's $500 billion aid package offer is just an offer. All 27 EU member states must approve
- AUD/USD. China, vaccine, RBA minutes: purchases are still relevant...
- Comprehensive analysis of movement options for #USDX vs Gold and Silver (H4) on May 20, 2020
- Evening review on EUR/USD for May 19, 2020
- May 19, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- EURUSD and GBPUSD: Franco-German agreement supports the euro. Pound ignores unemployment data
- Market review. Trading ideas. Q&A
- Daily review on EUR/USD for May 19, 2020
- Trading recommendations for the GBP/USD pair on May 19, 2020
- BTC analysis for May 19, 2020 - Strong resistance at the price of $10.000 is holding. Potential for the downside rotation
- GBP/USD analysis for May 19, 2020 - First target at the price of 1.2246 reached, potetnial for the second target at 1.2370
| Forecast for EUR/USD on May 20, 2020 Posted: 19 May 2020 08:08 PM PDT EUR/USD On Tuesday, investors continued to work on the news regarding the creation of a European anti-crisis fund worth 500 billion euros, and in addition to this, weak data on US construction provided the euro with support. The volume of construction of new houses in April reached 0.891 million against expectations of 0.927 million and 1.276 million in March. The volume of construction in the eurozone showed a contraction of 14.15% in March, while in the March reduction was 18.6% in the US. At the same time, the eurozone economic sentiment index for the current month increased from 25.2 to 46.0. We will see the US' response when the PMI for May will be released tomorrow. The euro has almost reached the upper limit of the 1.5-month trading range on the daily chart, the price is slightly above the price channel line this morning. The Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. According to the main technical features, the euro is aiming to attack the upper border of the trading range of 1.0995 in order to try to reach the price channel line at 1.1140, but this idea may be misleading. Sand-colored ovals mark the price exits above the MACD indicator line, after which the price returned. The same pattern is being formed at the moment, and as with previous cases, with the output of the oscillator signal line to the growth zone. The situation is completely upward on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for the development of events. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for AUD/USD on May 20, 2020 Posted: 19 May 2020 08:06 PM PDT AUD/USD The Australian dollar has been in a favorable environment for growth in recent days - commodities are getting more expensive and the Chinese economy is showing expansion. Unless, of course, a new episode of the trade war with the United States does not hinder it. Copper adds 0.33%, silver 1.27%, oil 0.64%, iron ore 1.42%. The price has consolidated above the price channel line on the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves up after a reversal from the zero neutral line. The 0.6677 target is open. The main danger to growth is the potential double divergence on the Marlin oscillator. But you just need to use yesterday's move for this price. The price is trying to overcome the signal level of 0.6562 on the four-hour chart for the second time, and there are no visible signs that it will fail. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for USD/JPY on May 20, 2020 Posted: 19 May 2020 08:03 PM PDT USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair grew by 76 points yesterday, probably in an attempt to fulfill the initial growth target of 108.30. The attempt failed since sufficient external conditions were needed for this, while the US stock market lost 1.05% (S&P 500). There are hopes for growth today, since Asian indices are growing, except for Chinese ones: Nikkei 225 0.71%, Kospi SEU 0.41%. The Chinese China A50 index is losing 0.32%. The price is above the trend line of the price channel on the daily chart, while Marlin is growing in the zone of positive values. The price has consolidated above the signal level of 107.78 on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is also in the growing trend zone. We expect growth to 109.50 (peak of November 7, 2019) if the price consolidates above the first target level of 108.30.  |
| AUDJPY close to ascending channel resistance and broke below trendline support Posted: 19 May 2020 07:43 PM PDT
Trading Recommendation Entry: 70.777 Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline resistance Take Profit : 69.535 Reason for Take Profit: Graphical overlap, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Stop Loss: 71.214 Reason for Stop loss: Ascending channel resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| USDJPY seeing potential for further upside! Posted: 19 May 2020 07:41 PM PDT
Trading Recommendation Entry: 107.435 Reason for Entry: 50% fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support Take Profit: 108.107 Reason for Take Profit: horizontal swing high resistance, 50% fibonacci retracement Stop Loss: 106.987 Reason for Stop loss: 78.6% fibonacci retracement The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Control zones for USDJPY on 05/20/20 Posted: 19 May 2020 07:24 PM PDT The pair is re-testing WCZ 1/2 108.02-107.83 today. This makes it possible to consider selling the instrument from current levels. If today's trading closes below the specified zone, this will confirm the resumption of the bearish medium-term model. The fall will initially aim for the monthly low, which will enable you to get a very favorable risk-to-profit ratio when selling from current levels. An alternative model will develop if today's trading closes above the WCZ 1/2. This will open the way for the pair to grow and cancel the bearish pattern. The growth target will be the weekly control zone of 110.11-109.72, which coincides with the zone of the average weekly move. Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year. Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year. Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Control zones of USDCHF on 05/20/20 Posted: 19 May 2020 07:20 PM PDT Work within the medium-term accumulation zone continues to be the main one. A favorable price for selling the instrument was received yesterday, as the pair tested the WCZ 1/2 0.9773-0.9755. It is possible to retain sales up to WCZ 1/2 0.9614-0.9597, which will enable you to obtain a favorable risk-to-profit ratio. It is important to understand that work within the framework of the flat requires you to partially consolidate the position during tests of weekly and monthly extremes and quickly transfer positions to breakeven. An alternative growth option can only be considered if today's trading closes above the 0.9773 level. This will allow you to enter a long position before the end of the current week. Purchases from current marks are not profitable. Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year. Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year. Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Control zones for USDCAD on 05/20/20 Posted: 19 May 2020 07:17 PM PDT Work in the downward direction is the main one in the second half of this week. Yesterday's consolidation below WCZ 1/2 1.3988-1.3972 makes it possible for you to open sales of the instrument. The fall is aiming for the weekly control zone of 1.3837-1.3808. It is important to understand that there were two non-working priority models in the current month, which significantly increases the probability of testing the target zone. Work in the downward direction will enable you to take part of the position when the weekly control zone is undergoing a test, and transfer the rest to breakeven. When selling a tool, it is necessary to take into account that there is the upper limit of the monthly control zone in May at the 1.3825 level. Its test may be the main obstacle to strengthening the Canadian dollar. When testing this mark within the current month, you can completely close all sales and expect a reversal pattern. Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year. Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year. Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 May 2020 05:34 PM PDT GBP/USD 1H The upward movement continued on the hourly chart for the pound/dollar pair on May 19, but within the downward channel. Traders managed to overcome the resistance area of 1.2196-1.2216 by the end of the second trading day of the week, and also work out the upper line of the downward channel. One can even conclude that the pair has consolidated above the descending channel, which currently means a change in the trend. However, so far the bulls are not able to continue moving up, so we recommend not rushing with purchases of the British currency. Perhaps a rebound will still be made from the top line of the downward channel. GBP/USD 15M Two linear regression channels show a rather strong upward movement on the 15-minute timeframe. Thus, there are no signs of ending the upward movement in the short term. Quotes of the pair consolidated above the moving midline and show a willingness to continue moving up. COT report. The latest COT report for May 12 shows that the total number of buy and sell transactions among large traders per week increased by 4,000, mainly due to purchases. However, the total number of transactions for the purchase remains only 16,000 more than transactions for selling. And such an imbalance persists for a long period of time, and it was not enough for the pair to begin forming an upward trend. In the reporting week, professional traders opened more new deals for selling (4539), which means that most of them are waiting for the British currency to fall again. The fundamental background remains sharply negative for the British pound. We believe that the British economy as a result of the coronavirus pandemic will lose significantly more than the American one, since the "divorce" process with the European Union continues on Great Britain and the parties to the negotiation process cannot agree on the terms of a comprehensive agreement on which they would have to live, coexist and trade with each other after January 31 of the current year. It is not known why Boris Johnson, in spite of the pandemic, is so tough on his position about refusing to postpone the transition period, but the fact remains. Most likely, in 2021, the UK and the EU will trade under the terms of the WTO. An inflation report will be published in Britain today, but we believe that it will have no effect on the pound/dollar. We have two main options for the development of the event on May 20: 1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains in the hands of the bears, as the price could not clearly indicate its intention to leave the downward channel on the hourly timeframe. Thus, we recommend buying the British pound no earlier than consolidating the price above the Senkou Span B line at 1.2323 and the resistance level of 1.2325 with the first target as the resistance area of 1.2404-1.2422. The next goal, in case of overcoming the area, is the 1.2550 level. Take profit will be about 75 points in the first case and 120 points in the second. 2) Sellers currently have great chances to implement their trading ideas. It will be enough to return the price to the area below the Kijun-sen line and the 1.2196-1.2216 area to resume the pair's sales with the target of the support level of 1.1987. In this case, take profit will be about 190 points. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 May 2020 05:34 PM PDT EUR/USD 1H The EUR/USD pair continued to move upward on the hourly timeframe yesterday and worked out a new downward trend line based on the highs of March 27 and May 1. The closing quotes were not accurate, however, the pair could not continue to move up. Thus, now there is a rather high probability that a downward reversal will be made and a new round of downward movement to a long-term upward trend line will begin. We also recall that, in general, the euro/dollar continues to trade inside the 1.0750-1.0990 channel, so we can also assume that the downward movement has been completed near the top line of this side channel. Bulls do not yet have the necessary strength and desire to continue forming a new upward trend. EUR/USD 15M We see a confident upward trend that has formed on the 15-minute timeframe in recent days. However, the lowest linear regression channel unfolds slowly downward, which means that the upward momentum could already be exhausted. Turning the minor channel down will indicate that an upward trend in the short term has been completed and is some way a confirmation of the rebound from the trend line on the hourly chart. COT report The latest COT report dated May 12 showed a new decrease in the number of buy and sell transactions among large traders, by 4,781 and by 3,554. Thus, the general mood of large traders remains bullish (the total number of purchase transactions is higher, 549,000-521,000), in addition to this, traders still managed to stay above the trend line on the 4-hour timeframe. Also, purchase positions among entities engaged in professional activities in the foreign exchange market have increased (+4569 purchase transactions). Thus, the euro can continue the growth process for some time. As for the fundamental background, it is almost neutral now for the EUR/USD pair. There is still a lot of news coming from both the European Union and the US, however, both countries are in more or less the same position, neither the dollar nor the euro has advantages. Yesterday, for example, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke, but they did not tell the markets anything new and interesting. The macroeconomic background continues to be largely ignored by traders, as both economies are simultaneously declining due to the coronavirus epidemic. Today we recommend that you pay attention to the EU inflation report (low probability of its development), as well as the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (also a low probability of market reaction to this event). Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for May 20: 1) It is possible for the pair's quotes to continue growing if the downward trend on the hourly chart and the resistance level of 1.0952 are overcome. This will mean that the pair can test the levels of 1,0990 and 1,1008, which can also be considered with some stretch in the area of the upper line of the side channel. We do not yet expect the pair to grow above the psychological level of $1.10. The potential to take profit is about 35 and 50 points. 2) The second option - bearish - is more likely. According to the option, it is already possible to sell the euro, since the quotes have already rebounded off the downward trend line and the resistance level. Of course, do not forget about the Stop Loss in case the bulls still continue to exert pressure on the US currency. However, a decline to the Senkou Span B line - 1.0893 is now very likely. And overcoming this line, the Kijun-sen line and the support area of 1.0880-1.0893 will allow you to open new lower positions with the target of 1.0810 (upward trend line). The potential to take profit while exerting this scenario will be 30 and 70 points. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 May 2020 05:06 PM PDT 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways. CCI: 83.1255 The British pound continued its upward movement on the second trading day of the week and continues it at the beginning of the third trading day. Thus, market participants continue to look favorably towards the British currency, but most likely, things are exactly the opposite. This demand for the US currency has decreased in recent days, so we are seeing a banal upward correction. We have repeatedly said that in the context of the global crisis, all countries are experiencing serious problems with the economy. However, in the UK, these problems are multiplied by questions related to Brexit and the lack of trade deals with the US and the European Union. Therefore, in the long term, we expect that the downward trend that began in 2014 will continue. Last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin addressed the US Congress, naturally in the format of a video conference. We already said the day before that both of these speeches are unlikely to cause a serious market reaction since the main theses of both economists has already been repeatedly expressed. In the context of another and at the same time the strongest crisis since the Great Depression, Mnuchin and Powell generally speak very often, so market participants do not have to guess what actions their agencies are preparing to take. Steven Mnuchin at a speech before the banking committee said that the US will come out stronger after the crisis. He said that the Ministry of Finance has already provided about $ 250 billion to all those in need. However, Mnuchin believes that the threat of irreparable damage increases the longer the "lockdown" continues. Jerome Powell, in his part of the conference, said that the Ministry of Finance and the Federal Reserve should do more to help the economy. Powell has previously called on Congress to approve new aid packages, as the current ones are not enough. However, Republicans and Democrats once again quarreled and so far failed to push a 3-trillion-dollar package of financial assistance through Congress. "The feeling that the economic recovery may be slower than we would like is growing. This means that we need to do more," Powell said. The head of the Federal Reserve also noted that in a crisis, support for the unemployed is a key focus of the government and relevant agencies. "The authorities have taken large-scale measures, but it is not clear whether this is enough to stabilize the economic situation," Powell concluded. Thus, both of the country's top economists said they would do everything in their power and called for more funding for the hard-hit American economy. Nothing new. At the same time, the US President again attacked the World Health Organization. This time, Donald Trump threatened to leave the organization in a month. Trump still believes that the WHO helped China hide real information about the "coronavirus" pandemic. The US leader again quotes statements from WHO representatives who approve the official position of the Chinese authorities that the COVID-2019 virus is not transmitted from person to person. However, according to Trump, at that time other information was already available that was opposite in meaning. In addition, the American leader is infuriated by the fact that the WHO criticized the United States for excessive border closures for Chinese visitors at a time when China itself has already been declared a strict quarantine. On March 3, WHO stated that "COVID-2019 is not spreading as effectively as flu". Thus, the head of the White House believes that the WHO, along with the PRC, is responsible for the fact that the epidemic has spread throughout the world. The US leader said that if within the next month WHO does not demonstrate detachment from China and reorganization in its work, the US will completely stop funding and consider withdrawing from this organization. "I cannot allow American taxpayers' money to continue to fund an organization that obviously does not serve America's interests," Trump concluded. Today, the UK is scheduled to publish the consumer price index for April. As in the case of the Eurozone, we believe that this report will not have a strong impact on the mood of traders. However, in annual terms, inflation may slow down to 0.9%, and in monthly terms, it may reach -0.1%. Late in the evening, the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be published. We remind you that no important decisions were made during this meeting. Therefore, the protocol itself is most likely not to be interesting. Moreover, in the past three days, Jerome Powell has spoken three times, and once - Steven Mnuchin. Markets already have all the necessary information about possible actions of the US government, the Treasury Department, and the Fed. Thus, we believe that traders will not learn anything new and interesting from this protocol. From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair left the 400-point wide consolidation channel. However, on the 4-hour timeframe, the pair was fixed above the critical line on the Ichimoku indicator and above the moving average line on the "linear regression channels" trading system. Thus, the trend has already changed to an upward one. Therefore, a new upward trend may begin to form, but we are still inclined to the option with strong multidirectional movements.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair remains stable and currently stands at 117 points. On Wednesday, May 20, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2130 and 1.2364. A downward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate a possible resumption of the downward trend or a round of downward correction against the newly formed upward trend. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.2207 S2 – 1.2146 S3 – 1.2085 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.2268 R2 – 1.2329 R3 – 1.2390 Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD pair continues its upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, it is now recommended to trade the pound/dollar pair for an increase with the goals of 1.2329 and 1.2364 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to sell the pound/dollar pair again not before fixing the price below the moving average with the first goals of 1.2146 and 1.2130. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 May 2020 05:06 PM PDT 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways. Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward. CCI: 126.7690 On May 20, the euro/dollar currency pair starts with the quotes moving away from the upper border of the side channel, which we have been writing about tirelessly in recent weeks. Just in case, we remind you again: the euro/dollar pair has been trading exclusively within the channel of 1.0750-1.0990 in recent weeks. At the same time, both its borders are fuzzy, that is, reversals occur not only when working out the levels of 1.0750 or 1.0990, but also on the approach to these price values. For example, yesterday everything happened like this. The pair managed to grow to the level of 1.0976 during the day, but it did not have enough strength for more. Although there were enough events in the world in the first two trading days of the week, we believe that they did not have any impact on the movement of the currency pair. And still, market participants traded, paying more attention to technical factors, rather than to the "foundation". In favor of this, the technical factors themselves are banal, which signaled in favor of the growth of quotes to 1.0990 with an unsuccessful attempt to overcome 1.0750. Also, both the pound and the euro were growing synchronously, so if you put the "foundation" as the reason for these movements, it should have come from the United States. And in the United States, just on Monday and Tuesday, there were no macroeconomic publications. There were only regular portions of comments from Donald Trump on all sorts of topics, as well as speeches by Jerome Powell, which, however, did not surprise anyone, since their content was already known to everyone for a long time. The key theme of the first two trading days of the week was, of course, the proposal by France and Germany to create a recovery fund to support the European economy and provide assistance to the states most affected by the "coronavirus". Many experts and analysts have written about this topic, but we would like to discuss it in more detail. The first thing we would like to note is that this is just a proposal by Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel. This is not a decision yet. Thus, like any proposal in the EU, it requires the approval of all 27 member states of the Alliance. Recall that the essence of the proposal of Macron and Merkel is to create a 500-billion fund at the expense of contributions from each EU member state, and give grants to the most affected countries and sectors of the economy. But everyone will have to "chip in". In other words, Italy, Spain, and Portugal will also have to spend several tens of billions of euros to this fund, from which they will then receive gratuitous grants. Initially, many thought that Germany and France intended to finance aid to the southern countries. However, there is nothing so generous and extraordinary in the offer of Paris and Berlin. Berlin, like many other Northern capitals, opposed any assistance to the "southerners", especially on a gratuitous basis. The northerners' position is simple. Southern countries should learn to budget and save more, so as not to ask for help later. However, even though this position is not devoid of logic, Berlin and Paris understand that without the help of the European Union, it can split. Why should Italy continue to stay in the EU if it does not receive any help from the EU when the crisis comes? We have already said that anti-European sentiment is maturing in Italy so that it could end up with a new independence referendum in a few years. Thus, the two largest EU economies have decided that it is better to help everyone with money now and preserve the integrity of the European Union than to lose one or more of its members later. At the same time, as we already understood, not only Paris and Berlin but all EU members will be "thrown off". It is assumed that the contributions to the fund will be determined by the size of the country and the size of its economy. "We are convinced that this is not only fair but also necessary. We must act to get out of the crisis normally," Angela Merkel said in a video of the press conference. French President Macron agreed with his counterpart and said that "at the beginning of the epidemic, the EU did not show solidarity." He also said that assistance would be provided in the form of grants, rather than loans that will need to be returned. However, it is already known that not all EU countries support the generosity of rich France and Germany. For example, Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden have already said that they are ready to help victims of the epidemic, but not with grants, but with loans. The Netherlands even pays special attention to the moral aspect of the issue: countries that failed to properly prepare financially for an emergency will receive money that will not need to be returned. Many believe that with this approach, Rome, Madrid, and Lisbon will learn nothing and will assume that in each crisis they will be saved by other EU countries at their own expense. Thus, from our point of view, this Fund can also be buried in the archives of the EU, as well as the idea with "corona bond". Moreover, 500 billion is not such a big amount, it may not be enough for everyone in need. Moreover, the discussion of this proposal should begin no earlier than June. Thus, firstly, this event is not soon, and secondly, it is still "written with a pitchfork on water". Based on all the above, we do not believe that this event could support the euro currency. Moreover, we believe that the pair may continue to trade in a narrow side channel of 1.0750-1.0990, respectively, in the coming days, the quotes may resume falling. Thus, technical factors remain in the first place for analyzing and predicting the movement of the euro/dollar pair. We can expect the continuation of the upward movement only when traders break the upper limit of the channel, that is, the area of the $ 1.10 level. Today, the European Union is scheduled to publish the consumer price index for April, but we believe that this indicator will not cause any interest among traders. The forecast is 0.4% in annual terms and 0.3% in monthly terms. In the context of a pandemic, inflation is not an important or significant indicator.
The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of May 20 is 80 points. Thus, the value of the indicator remains stable and is characterized as "average", despite a fairly active Monday. Today, we expect quotes to move between the levels of 1.0850 and 1.1010. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal a turn of the downward movement within the channel of 1.0750-1.0990. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.0925 S2 – 1.0864 S3 – 1.0803 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.0986 R2 – 1.1047 R3 – 1.1108 Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair is fixed above the moving average line, so buy orders with targets near the level of 1.0990 are relevant now. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards indicates not just a round of corrective movement, but a round of downward movement within the side channel of 1.0750-1.0990. Thus, it is now possible to consider selling the pair with the goal of 1.0750 and buying only above the level of 1.1000 with the goals of 1.1047 and 1.1108. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| USDJPY shows signs of strength.... Posted: 19 May 2020 01:24 PM PDT USDJPY has managed to break above the recent highs at 107.62 and has now formed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This pattern has now potential to push price towards 108.55 and why not higher.
Red lines - equal size move USDJPY has broken above the wedge pattern and this was a bullish signal. USDJPY has since then pulled back forming a new higher short-term low and is now moving to new short-term higher highs. Trend is bullish as long as price is above 106.77. USDJPY bulls will now be targeting 108.60. Bulls remain in control as long as price is above 106.77 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Short-term Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EURUSD for May 19, 2020. Posted: 19 May 2020 01:19 PM PDT EURUSD has reached as expected the Ichimoku cloud resistance at 1.0985 and got rejected. Price is turning lower forming a bearish candlestick pattern, confirming the importance of the Cloud resistance.
On a daily basis trend remains bearish as long as price is below the Kumo. Breaking above the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen has led price to a move towards the Kumo (cloud). Price got rejected at the lower boundary of the Kumo and is now pulling back. Support is found at 1.0870. Failure to hold above this support level will increase the chances of breaking below 1.08 towards 1.07. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 May 2020 10:48 AM PDT 4-hour timeframe Average volatility over the past 5 days: 82p (average). The EUR/USD pair continues a strong upward movement on Tuesday, May 19, and it worked out towards the end of the day at the resistance level of 1.0952. Today's peak at the time of writing is 1.0976. Recall that in recent weeks we have repeatedly said that the price, in case of an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the lower boundary of the side channel 1.0750–1.0990, will tend to its upper boundary. Last week, traders were not able to overcome the 1.0750 level, and in articles with intraday trading signals, we repeatedly indicated a long-term upward trend line, which also supported buyers of the euro. And today, we can say that the pair worked out the upper boundary of the side channel. Of course, there was no exact trading of 1.0990, the pair may increase to it in the coming hours. Quotes can simply turn down near the upper border of the channel and start moving to the lower border at 1.0750. Therefore, the pair currently remains within the side channel, and the trend movement is absent. Consolidating the price above the area of the level of $1.10 can trigger the formation of a new upward trend. The calendar of macroeconomic events for the eurozone was empty today. More precisely, several indexes from the ZEW Institute were published, which reflect the mood of investors, the business climate. The European index of economic sentiment significantly increased from -12.1 to 46. The index of sentiment in the business environment of Germany also increased from 32 to 51. Thus, we can assume that the worst for the European economy is already behind. Nevertheless, these are not indicators that could cause a strong reaction of market participants. Pound sterling and the euro have been growing for two days in a row, despite the fact that there were no macroeconomic reports in the UK, the EU or the US on Monday and today they were only in the UK. Of course, various events continue to occur in the world that could theoretically have a positive impact on both pairs. However, it is unlikely that news of successful testing of the coronavirus vaccine in America could cause a sharp increase in the euro and the pound. It would be more logical to expect the dollar's growth, since it turns out that production of the vaccine for the population will begin most quickly in the US, respectively, it will most likely emerge from the epidemic and begin recovery, as well as secure themselves from future new "waves". Therefore, news about vaccine testing is unlikely to be related to the dollar's fall. Furthermore, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed on a package of assistance to the European economy and the countries most affected by the pandemic worth 500 billion euros. It is reported that money will be borrowed in the financial markets. They will go to the EU treasury as a one-time aid to the most affected countries and will not be required to return. It remains unclear who will participate in the formation of this fund. Obviously, these will be France and Germany. But who else will join them? After all, it is unlikely that it will be Italy and Spain, for the sake of which this fund, in particular, is being created. It is also unlikely that only France and Germany will allocate these 500 billion euros. The German Chancellor said that the aid package previously agreed by the European Council is not enough, so the Recovery Fund will be a "German-French contribution to overcoming the crisis caused by the pandemic." Merkel also said that the current crisis is the worst in the history of the European Union. However, it should be noted that so far this is nothing more than a proposal from Paris and Berlin. Earlier, the European Council, for example, could not agree on a assistance package of 2 trillion euros. Even earlier, Berlin and some other northern countries rejected the proposal for crown bonds. Thus, no fund has yet been created, and, for example, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurtz opposes the proposal of Paris and Berlin, believes that this plan will meet resistance from other countries. The adoption of this plan requires the consent of all 27 member countries of the EU, and its discussion will be held in June. Thus, the prospect is not close, and it is not clear how this discussion will end. Based on this, we believe that Merkel and Macron are also not "to blame" for the euro's growth. The reasons are not part of their plan to save the eurozone economy. 4-hour timeframe Average volatility over the past 5 days: 123p (high). The GBP/USD pair also continued its upward movement and crossed the critical Kijun-sen line on May 19. Thus, the downward trend for the pair was temporarily canceled, and now traders can try to start forming an upward trend. In the first half of the article, we tried to figure out what caused the dollar to fall against the euro and the pound. However, no apparent reasons were found. In this part of the article, we will continue to figure this out. On Sunday and Monday, Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell gave an interview twice. However, both times his comments were not of any unexpected nature. On Sunday, Powell noted that US unemployment could rise to 25%, and fall by 20% in GDP in the second quarter. On Monday, the Fed chairman said that the regulator will do everything in his power to save the US economy and prevent it from continuing to fall. Earlier, last week, Powell noted that the stimulus program would be almost limitless, but now there is no talk of lowering the key rate. And Donald Trump even earlier resumed a massive attack on the Fed, again calling for a lower key rate. All this news was unlikely to be a shock to market participants or caused at least some emotions, because the information has long been known. Thus, Powell is unlikely to be involved in what is happening in the first two days. His next speech will take place today, this time in Congress, but it is unlikely that his rhetoric and the rhetoric of Stephen Mnuchin will be very different. Thus, it turns out that the euro currency most likely grew on the basis of purely technical reasons, or rather, on the rebound from the lower border of the side channel. As for the pound, a correction began after it after a rather long downward movement. Data on unemployment and wages were released in Britain today. The unemployment rate even managed to drop in March, but this is the March data that markets were not particularly interested in. The same applies to wages, the data on them concerned March. But the rate of applications for unemployment benefits, which reached 856,000, concerned April and turned out to be absolutely negative. It should only be noted that the normal value of this indicator is + - 25,000, and it immediately becomes clear how bad everything is. However, today the pound is steadily growing, which again contradicts the nature of macroeconomic information. Recommendations for EUR/USD: For short positions: The EUR/USD pair continued the upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe for most of the day. However, 1.0750–1.0990 can turn around and begin to fall near the upper boundary of the side channel. Thus, we advise you to consider selling the pair with a view to the lower boundary of the channel - 1.0750. For long positions: Buy orders can be opened no earlier than breaking the 1.0990 level, the 1.1000 level and the resistance level of 1.1008. After overcoming these obstacles, we can expect an upward trend to form and then you can continue to trade for an increase. Recommendations for GBP/USD: For short positions: The pound/dollar continues to adjust against the downward trend. Thus, traders are advised to resume selling the pair with targets of 1.2070 and 1.1987 in case of price taking below Kijun-sen. For long positions: You are advised to consider purchases of the GBP/USD pair while aiming for 1.2325, but in small lots, since there is no Golden Cross. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| AUD/USD. China, vaccine, RBA minutes: purchases are still relevant... Posted: 19 May 2020 10:47 AM PDT The Australian dollar continues to strengthen against the US currency: after a temporary recession, the aussie moved up again, gaining a foothold within the 65th figure. Disappointing data on the Australian labor market could not change the overall mood for the pair. Traders remain confident that the Australian economy will recover fairly quickly in the second half of the year, and the decline in key indicators will be less deep relative to the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts. Actually, the experts of the RBA themselves admit a similar scenario only if the world is not under the blow of the second wave of the epidemic. Therefore, the general fundamental background for the pair remains positive, especially amid latest news from the front of the fight against COVID-19. News from China also supported the aussie, although relations between Canberra and Beijing have recently cooled down after the Australians supported the idea of the Americans to investigate the possible artificial nature of the coronavirus (which the Chinese did not like). Nevertheless, China is still Australia's key trading partner, so China's economic recovery is pushing the aussie up, not only against the greenback, but throughout the market. The closest resistance level for the pair is quite near - at around 0.6590 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). But the main price outpost is located a little higher - this, of course, is the "round" mark of 0.6600. When overcoming this target, buyers can expect the pair to return to their usual, pre-crisis price range (0.67-0.69), within which it fluctuated in the second half of last year. It is noteworthy that traders actually ignored the current macroeconomic reports of Australia, which reflect the negative consequences of the epidemic and lockdown. For example, the latest release of data on the growth of the Australian labor market went almost unnoticed - the aussie formally decreased by several tens of points, after which it quickly recovered. Although the unemployment rate in the country rose to 6.2%, and the growth rate of the number of employed significantly disappointed: it collapsed by almost 600,000. Full employment decreased by almost 230,000, part-time - by more than 370,000. The share of the economically active population fell to 63%. But the market was ready for such a result, so the Australian dollar slightly suffered. Traders also interpreted the last RBA meeting and its quarterly report in favor of the aussie. And this is despite the fact that the rhetoric of the regulator abounded with pessimistic assessments, forecasts and comments. But market participants have found positive aspects here. Firstly, the RBA stated that it was in a wait-and-see position; secondly, it announced a reduction in the volume and frequency of bond purchases. Although the RBA emphasized in a separate line that the interest rate would not be increased until the key inflation indicators and the level of employment reached their target levels, this fact did not prevent the bulls from moving up. Apparently, market participants are confident that the Australian economy will recover by the end of this year, and by the beginning of next year, the RBA will begin to tighten the terms of monetary policy. The minutes published today of the last RBA meeting also supported AUD/USD, despite the conflicting rhetoric of the document. Of the negative points, the following can be distinguished. First, according to RBA economists, the country's GDP is expected to decrease by more than 10% in the first half of the year. The main blow of the crisis will be in the second quarter: in particular, unemployment should rise to its peak values, that is, to about 9-10%. Secondly, the RBA expressed its willingness to increase purchases of government bonds, while noting a high level of uncertainty. But at the same time, the RBA members again reiterated the thesis that key economic indicators should recover in the second half of the year, and the pace of this recovery will depend on the duration of the restrictive measures. And it is worth noting that Australia began to gradually quarantine almost immediately after its May meeting - the authorities announced a three-stage strategy, which should return the country to a normal rhythm of life approximately by mid-summer. News from China also supports the aussie - last week it became known that China's industry showed growth in April - for the first time since the beginning of the year. And although production volumes in the country increased by only 3.9%, traders responded to the dynamics themselves. In addition, the Australian dollar is growing due to the common interest of traders in risky currencies. This was facilitated by the news flow from the front of the fight against coronavirus. Recently it became known that in the United States the vaccine first formed a human immunity to COVID-19. Representatives of the biotechnological company Moderna said that their drug has passed positive tests in humans. In turn, scientists at Peking University are testing drugs that are supposed to be able to stop the coronavirus pandemic even without a vaccine. According to the researchers, the drugs can not only shorten the recovery time of the infected, but even provide short-term immunity to COVID-19. Thus, the fundamental background for the Australian dollar is quite favorable, despite the conflicting rhetoric of the RBA and the decline in current macroeconomic indicators. At the moment, we can consider long positions to the 0.6590 level (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). The second option is to wait for the downward pullback, again to go buying with the same purpose. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Comprehensive analysis of movement options for #USDX vs Gold and Silver (H4) on May 20, 2020 Posted: 19 May 2020 09:59 AM PDT Minuette operational scale (H4) Options for the battle of the dollar index for the metal in the third week of May - the development of the movement of #USDX vs Gold and Silver from May 20, 2020. ____________________ US dollar index From May 20, 2020, the movement of the dollar index (#USDX) will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (99.65-99.40-99.15) of the Minuette operational scale - see the animated chart for details. Breakdown of the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette - resistance level of 99.65 - resumption of the development of the upward movement #USDX to the goals:
If the support level of 99.15 breaks at the lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette, the downward movement of the dollar index can be continued to the equilibrium zone (98.90-98.50-98.10) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The layout of the #USDX movement options from May 20, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.
____________________ Spot Silver The development of the Spot Silver movement from May 20, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:
If there is a breakdown of the support level of 16.970, then the development of the Spot Silver movement can be continued within the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (16.970-16.800-16.610) and equilibrium zones (16.500-16.170-15.850) of the Minuette operational scale fork. If the reaction line rl23.6 of the Minuette operational scale forks is broken - the resistance level of 17.250 - it will be possible to continue the development of the upward movement of Spot Silver towards the goals:
Details of the Spot Silver movement options from May 20, 2020 are shown in the animated chart.
____________________ Spot Gold The development of the Spot Gold movement will continue from May 20, 2020 depending on the development and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1737.00-1727.00-1718.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork - details of working out the boundaries of this channel are shown on the animated graph. The breakdown of the support level of 1718.00 at the lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette will make it relevant to continue the development of the Spot Gold movement in the equilibrium zone (1718.00-1704.00-1690.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the upper limit of ISL61.8 (1685.00) of the balance zone of the Minuette operational scale fork. If the resistance level of 1737.00 is broken at the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line of the Minuette operational scale fork, it will be possible to resume the development of the upward movement of Spot Gold to the goals:
Details of the Spot Gold movement from May 20, 2020 can be seen on the animated chart.
____________________ The review is compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers, and is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders). Formula for calculating the dollar index: USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036. Where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket: Euro - 57.6 %; Yen - 13.6 %; Pound - 11.9 %; Canadian dollar - 9.1 %; Swedish Krona - 4.2 %; Swiss franc - 3.6 %. The first coefficient in the formula brings the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Evening review on EUR/USD for May 19, 2020 Posted: 19 May 2020 08:07 AM PDT
Merkel and Macron's large-scale plan to save the Eurozone economy by 500 billion euros primarily went on major criticisms. Austria opposed the plan publicly, but also in opposition to the plan by Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands. The root of the opposition is mainly because it is supposed that the help from the fund might be unattainable and difficult to request. Critical countries are ready to get help, however, in the form of a loan. It is clear that the main assistance will have to be sent to Spain and Italy - and Germany, France and the countries of northern Europe will pay. Despite all these, the euro is holding up. You may keep purchases from 1.0855, stop at 1.0835. You can consider purchases from 1.0880. If the euro holds, you can buy from 1.0920, but consider doing that by tomorrow, May 20. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| May 19, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 19 May 2020 07:50 AM PDT
Few weeks ago, the EURUSD pair has expressed remarkable bullish recovery around the newly-established bottom around 1.0650. Bullish engulfing H4 candlesticks as well as the recently-demonstrated ascending bottoms indicated a high probability bullish pullback at least towards 1.0980 and 1.1075 (Fibo Level 50%). Around the price zone between (1.1075-1.1150), a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern was demonstrated. That's why, Further bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.0800 where the nearest demand level to be considered was located near the backside of the broken channel (1.0800-1.0750). Evident signs of Bullish rejection have been manifested around the price zone of (1.0800-1.0750) leading to the recent bullish spike up to 1.0990. The short-term technical bullish outlook remains valid as long as bullish persistence is maintained above the recently-established ascending Bottom around 1.0770. Further bullish advancement was expected to pursue beyond 1.1000 towards 1.1175 where 61.8% Fibonacci Level is located. Bullish breakout above 1.1000 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1075 and probably 1.1150. However, lack of bullish momentum brought another recent bearish decline towards the depicted price zone around 1.0800. The price zone of (1.0815 - 1.0775) still stands as a prominent Demand Zone which has been providing quite good bullish support for the pair. However, Any bearish breakdown below 1.0770 should be marked as an early Exit signal for all short-term BUY trades. Trade recommendations : Intraday traders were advised to consider the recent bearish pullback towards the price zone of 1.0815 - 1.0775 as another valid short-term BUY trade. It's already running in profits. S/L should be advanced to 1.0770 to offset the associated risk while T/P levels to be located around 1.0930, 1.1000 then 1.1075 if sufficient bullish momentum is maintained. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EURUSD and GBPUSD: Franco-German agreement supports the euro. Pound ignores unemployment data Posted: 19 May 2020 07:43 AM PDT The European currency continued to strengthen its position against the US dollar after the news that Germany had eased its pressure and, apparently, once again abandoned its principles by proposing to France to create a fund for economic recovery in the eurozone, which will be included in the EU budget. The economies of Germany and France were least affected by the coronavirus pandemic but were forced to "save" the southern countries of the eurozone, which are experiencing major problems. I have mentioned in my previous reviews the reasons why the Nordic countries can make concessions and agree to create a stabilization fund. Without a sharp recovery in the economies of other countries, and now we are talking about neighboring countries, the German economy will also not receive the necessary momentum. The country is largely export-oriented, which will suffer primarily due to weak demand from southern countries. From this, we can conclude that countries such as Germany and France, especially in the current conditions, have no choice but to continue to finance debts and inflate the budget deficit of the eurozone member countries. Many experts believe that Germany and France have enough power to support neighboring countries that have suffered more severe damage from the coronavirus pandemic. Investors took the Franco-German proposal with particular optimism, gradually returning to risky assets. However, the amount stipulated in the new fund, which is about 500 billion euros, is clearly not enough to quickly revive the economies of those countries that are most affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Today, a series of leading reports came out, which further encouraged buyers of the euro. According to the ZEW Science Center, the index of economic expectations in Germany rose sharply in May this year, reaching 51.0 points from 28.2 points in April. No one had counted on such a sharp increase. At best, economists had expected the index to reach 32.0 points in May. Many predict a more active economic recovery after the removal of protective measures in the summer of this year. The index also reflects an improvement in sentiment in individual sectors of the economy. However, the indicator of current economic conditions in May collapsed even more and determined to -93.5 points from -91.5 points in April. Economists predicted that this indicator in May will be -89.0 points. Despite such an optimistic forecast, As for the eurozone indicator, the leading index of business sentiment from the ZEW institute was 46 points in May against 25.2 points in April, while economists had expected a slight increase to 27 points. From the fundamental report today, you can also pay attention to the April data on the number of registrations of passenger cars in the EU, which fell sharply, due to an obvious reason that all the car dealerships did not work. According to the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, the number of new car registrations in the EU fell by 76%, to 270,682 units. As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, a confident update of the level of 1.0980 and a rollback from it so far indicate only profit-taking by speculative players, while larger traders will probably expect a return to the levels of 1.1020 and 1.1140. A downward correction, which may begin today, will lead to an update of the minimum of 1.0860, where buyers of risky assets will try to build the lower border of a new rising channel, aimed at a larger growth of the euro. GBPUSD The British pound, on the other hand, did not significantly strengthen its position, and growth was stopped by weak data on the labor market. In April, the number of applications reached a historic maximum. According to the data, the increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the UK achieved to 856,500, which outlines the beginning of the damage that the country will face as a result of the pandemic. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, more than 2.1 million people have lost their jobs since the beginning of the spread of coronavirus in the UK. However, this is not a complete statistic, since the government finances at its own expense partially those working people whose incomes decreased as a result of the pandemic. Do not forget about the decrease in the average earnings, which showed an increase of only 2.4% in March after an increase of 2.8% in February, while economists had expected an increase of 2.7%. Together with a reduction in the number of hours worked during the first months of the pandemic, a clearer overall picture can be obtained, but do not forget about the May indicators, which will turn out to be even worse. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Market review. Trading ideas. Q&A Posted: 19 May 2020 06:06 AM PDT Trading recommendations: USD/JPY- buy up to 108. GBP/USD - buy up to 1.26500. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Daily review on EUR/USD for May 19, 2020 Posted: 19 May 2020 05:47 AM PDT
As we see in the daily chart above, the EUR / USD rate has reached a zone of very strong resistance. The resistance line of the downward trend demanded a 100-day average, which became a strong resistance for many times on the way up, including in March and April of this year. If the euro manages to go up the range of 1.0960-1.1020 and conquer the day higher, the euro will continue to grow to 1.1400-1.1500 You may keep purchases from 1.0855, stop at 1.0835. The first goal, 1.0955, is reached.
As observed on the EUR4D chart of the H4 scale, there is a good entry level for purchases from 1.0880. Stop at 1.0835 with a target at 1.0980. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading recommendations for the GBP/USD pair on May 19, 2020 Posted: 19 May 2020 05:45 AM PDT From the point of view of complex analysis, we can see the V-shaped movement of the quotes, as yesterday's trading formed a recovery process, during which the quote returned to the 1.2250 level. The downward movement observed on May 1 was one of the largest correction recorded. A correction movement may be considered as a signal of a change in the market tact, but not in the case of the current situation, as the quotes managed to overcome April 7's low and is almost to the psychological level of 1.2000, where only 73 points remain before reaching it. The movement is set, and the target development is almost reached. Local corrections are not excluded on the way, since they will not bring any change in the market tacts. Analyzing yesterday's trading by minutes, we can see that the upward mood occurred almost at the opening of the trading week, but the main acceleration came at 09: 45-16: 15 (UTC + 1). The subsequent fluctuation had variable boundaries of 1.2180 / 1.2220, on which the trading day ended. As discussed in the previous review, traders focused on a downward development, but did not exclude local operations, which brought an impressive increase in the trading deposit. The trading recommendation on Monday regarding local positions coincided 100%. [Open buy positions above 1.2125, in the direction of 1.2150-1.2180.] In terms of volatility, another 14% acceleration was recorded relative to the daily average. Only once, in the past eight trading days, did the indicator record a value below 100 points. This indicates high market interest and high speculative activity. Analyzing the daily chart, we can see the unstable movement between the levels 1.2150 and 1.2620, where the main trading forces are from sellers who are consistently trying to restore the main direction. The news yesterday did not contain any important statistics on the UK and the US. Nevertheless, market activity was still high. The situation with the coronavirus, as well as its economic consequences are still monitored. In the UK, Chancellor Rishi Sunak believes that the British bill, which finances 7.5 million workers, costs the country £ 8 billion a month, which is about two-thirds of the country health care costs. Thus, the duration of the said program may extend only until fall. In addition, even with such a scheme, unemployment rate in Britain in the second quarter jumped up to 10%. The UK is also worried about the post-Brexit trade negotiations, which, until now, still has no results. If the negotiations fail to conclude at the end of 2020, fines worth more than £ 380 billion will come. Knowing such size, London calls on the EU to show flexibility, but the EU's position regarding equal conditions remains unchanged. "We unequivocally declare to the EU that we cannot conclude a deal on these conditions, but I am sure that a deal will be agreed upon. It will just require some degree of flexibility on the part of the EU, which I am sure they will recognize, "said British politician Michael Gove. Meanwhile, data on the UK labor market was published today, where the number of applications for unemployment benefits in April reached 856,500, several times higher than the 2008-2009 crisis. Unemployment rate fell from 4.0% to 3.9%, but the data came from March, not April. Thus, the consequences of quarantine measures await us in the next period, where the indicators will be terrible. Further development Analyzing the current trading chart, we can see the resumption of the movement, where the quote managed to update yesterday's high and successfully consolidate above it. Meanwhile, the subsequent fluctuation reflected a local slowdown within 1.2250, where the candle structure appeared to be doji, signaling the indecision of market participants, as well as the concentration of trading forces. Since the correction move did not change the current trading course, it can be assumed that the movement is just temporary, so quotes will return to its previous levels soon. The concentration of trading forces within 1.2220 / 1.2266 will be an excellent platform for local transactions, where the main goal of trading is breaking the established boundaries. For recovery, the quote must return below 1.2150. Based on the above information, we derived these trading ideas: - Open buy positions above 1.2270, targeting 1.2330–1.2350. - For recovery, open sell positions from the value of 1.2215, targeting the level of 1.2150. After which, when quotes consolidate below 1.2140, open sell positions in the direction of 1.2080–1.2000. Indicator analysis Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we can see that the technical tools on hourly periods reflect an inertial move, signaling purchases. The daily periods, on the other hand, still signal sales, which reflects the general market mood. Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter Year The measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated by Month / Quarter / Year. (May 19 was built, taking into account the time of publication of the article) The current volatility is 83 points, which is considered low relative to the average daily value. Activity may increase if a reversal occurs. If not, the dynamics will continue until the end of the trading day. Key levels Resistance Zones: 1.2250; 1.2350 **; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2725 *; 1.2770 **; 1.2885 *; 1.3000; 1.3170 **; 1.3300 **; 1.3600; 1.3850; 1.4000 ***; 1.4350 **. Support areas: 1.2150 **; 1.2000 *** (1.1957); 1.1850; 1.1660; 1.1450 (1.1411); 1.1300; 1,1000; 1,0800; 1,0500; 1,0000. * Periodic level ** Range Level *** Psychological level The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 May 2020 05:38 AM PDT Corona virus summary:
Popular crypto exchange Binance is planning to enter the Chinese market with the launch of its new China website. This comes after Binance was forced to leave China following strict regulations that shut down all domestic cryptocurrency exchanges in September 2017. Since then, mixed messages have been coming from Beijing. While financial institutions are not permitted to deal with crypto, it's not illegal for a person to hold it. And when taken in conjunction with constant reports of anti-crypto moves, such as the proposed ban on Bitcoin mining, it's clear the Chinese government holds a standoff approach as far as cryptocurrency is concerned. Trading recommendation: The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 May 2020 05:29 AM PDT Corona virus summary:
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits increased by the most since records began in April to reach almost 2.1 million, according to official figures capturing the onset of the coronavirus crisis. The said about 856,500 people signed up for universal credit and jobseeker's allowance benefits in April, driving up the overall UK claimant count by 69% in a single month. Economists said the surge marked the biggest monthly increase since comparable records began in the early 1970s, while the overall number of people claiming for benefits due to unemployment had risen above 2 million for the first time since 1996. The first official attempts to gauge the economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis also revealed the number of employees on company payrolls plunged by 450,000 at the start of April, in a reflection of staff being let go and reduced hiring. The number of vacancies posted by companies looking for new staff also halved. Technical analysis: Trading recommendation: Watch for potential buying opportunities on the dips with the upward target set at the price of 1,2370. Stop loss can be placed at 1,2200 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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