Hard times for the sane

Bill Bonner’s Diary

Hard Times for the Sane

By Bill Bonner

Bill Bonner

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – Wow… What a week!

There must have been a full moon… a lunatic new high in the Nasdaq… and an all-time monthly record in federal deficits. If monthly deficits were to continue at June’s rate, the deficit for the year would be a sizzling $7.6 trillion.

It is the best of times and the worst of times.

Stock market investors went howling mad… The last quarter was the best for the Dow Jones in 33 years. But for the economy, it was the worst quarter in history!

Dizzying Highs

Last week also brought Donald Trump to claim that Joe Biden had “plagiarized” his economic program, after Biden unveiled his “Buy American” plan.

The Donald said it with characteristic pride… flattered that someone would want to imitate him. Apparently, now, both parties are going to make America great again.

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A more thoughtful man might have wondered why the big spending dumbbells on the other side of the aisle would think his program was just fine for them, too.

When the tone deaf fellow in the church choir is hitting the same notes you are… maybe it’s time to change your tune.

But wait… there’s more…

Mary Trump (Donald’s niece) says the president paid someone to take his SATs… and Kanye West announced that he’s running for president too. (Sure to boost brand awareness for his clothing line, Yeezy. We had never heard of it.)

And Tesla flew to such a dizzy high last week that we practically broke our neck looking at it. Here’s money-manager extraordinaire Chris Mayer:

Tesla is now worth more than Toyota, GM, Ford and Fiat combined… and yet, still can’t deliver 500,000 vehicles annually, can’t make a profit, sales haven’t grown much since 2018, they have a CEO who openly taunts the SEC saying they suck his you-know-what, and they have at best doctored up financials (at worst, fraudulent).

Tesla stock is up 270% so far this year. It trades at 288 times free cash flow.

Wow. What a great company, right? Or what?

The “or what” is what interests us today. And we have a feeling that it concerns much more than Tesla…

$20 Billion Countertrade

Tesla is so obviously over-priced that it has created a whole “or what” $20 billion countertrade. That is the value of the shares that are now “short” TSLA.

Bloomberg columnist Matt Levine:

Let’s call it Anti-Tesla … is apparently the biggest synthetic company ever, the largest pool of shares ever manufactured by people betting against a company. It’s no Toyota, but Anti-Tesla is bigger than Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV; the market value of Tesla stock produced by short sellers is larger than the market value of an entire real car company.

That’s … something. I don’t know. It’s easy to scoff that Tesla, a young and still-niche company that has not produced a lot of profits, is more valuable than these big mature car companies; but even that scoffing itself is more valuable than some of those companies. Finance is weird.

Weird? Yes. And so far this year, the scoffers have lost (on paper, at least) some $18 billion. Tesla has gone up. Their short positions have gone down.

But that’s the problem with “or what”?

What’s going on is insane. But if you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs, you will probably lose a lot of money.

Real-World Damage

A sane, sensible and sober investor should stay away from U.S. stocks.

After all, stocks represent real businesses. And real businesses operate in the real world… which, measured by GDP, may have slumped 38% last quarter.

Those businesses will probably never again be worth as much as they were a year ago.

And now, we can expect a “recovery.” But losses are losses. They are permanent, like a summer spent indoors.

Time passes; it never comes back. And when the economy eventually goes back outside – with pasty skin, wasted muscles, and trillions more in heavy debt to lug around – it is unlikely to regain its old vigor.

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Stocks should reflect the real-world damage, in other words, not ignore it.

In February 2020, the stock market was on the ropes, and getting pummeled by the COVID-19 shutdown.

There was no reason to think the economy would come out of the ring intact. But investors who took the anti-stock bet missed a 35% rebound.

Now, the economy is still black and blue, and walking with a limp. But the market averages are back to where they were when The Donald could claim it was “the best economy ever.”

Measuring Insanity

But the averages, too, are nutty.

Take out the top 10 tech stocks – Apple, Facebook, etc. – and you wipe out half the Nasdaq.

On the S&P 500, the top 10 stocks represent 80% of the index. With the exception of Berkshire Hathaway and Johnson & Johnson, they, too, are all tech or finance companies.

But do these entertainment, time-wasting, and money-spinning companies really account for half or more of America’s real wealth?

Of course not. Like Tesla, what they measure is insanity, counted out in the Federal Reserve’s paper wealth… and speculators’ enthusiasm for casino-like gains.

Take U.S. bonds, for example.

What is a bond worth that is issued by a 244-year-old company that is (in the month of June) spending four times as much as it earns?

What is it worth when the company also controls the currency in which the bond is payable… and when it is covering its deficits by printing more of it?

And what if it had no plans to stop losing money… or to stop printing the money to pay its losses?

The short answer: its bonds wouldn’t be worth very much. But U.S. bonds have actually gone up. If you’d dumped U.S. Treasuries three years ago, you would have missed a total return of about 50%.

In short, it’s been a rough time for people who aren’t insane.

Only one anti-insanity bet has really paid off….

More to come…

Regards,

signature

Bill


Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@rogueeconomics.com.


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MAILBAG

A dear reader berates Bill for Friday’s Diary. Bill published a chart on Trump’s track record among former staff members, and unpacked what those closest to Trump have to say about him. This dear reader calls it “fake news”…

You should fire your research department or whoever made up that ridiculous chart of what prior members of President Trump’s administration said, as if it is relevant without context. You are advancing fake news otherwise, and I have come to expect better from you. Let’s face it, I could probably find 7 or 8 people who think any one of us are idiots at some point in our relationship. That includes you and every one of your readers.

Just a little bit of real research would show how most of these comments are from people who were encouraged to leave the administration. How many people do most of us think are idiots at some point in time? Those who have fired us? The large ego of almost anyone who has become president will have a few idiot comments made about them in their history, especially when dealing with other large ego people. Come on, Bill. Do better.

– Harry B.

In Friday’s missive, Bill also quoted an expert from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention relating to COVID-19 in children. That expert said that serious illness in children from the coronavirus disease is rare. But readers don’t see eye to eye on this idea…

Well, Mr. Bonner, you had to reach uncomfortably far to make your false point that Donald Trump is right to demand that children go back to schools. You quote Dr. Robert Redford: “The ability of this virus to cause significant illness in children ‘is very, very – very limited.’” You choose to ignore the great danger posed by the many cases of non-child infections that would result from the infected kids who would, themselves, cope well with the virus, while spreading it to many vulnerable others, some of whom would die as the overall threat remained unnecessarily high. You should apologize to those of us who expect better thinking from you.

– Malcolm J.

Bill, I enjoyed this email. I would encourage you to look up how many kids have died in the USA from COVID-19. You will find from 2/01/2020 to 7/04/2020, the number from under 1 year old and to 14 years old is only 29. If you go from under 1 year old up to 24 years of age, the number is 171 total. I question if the schools should have ever been closed. I certainly see, now, that we have this data. In my humble opinion, open up the schools and let the kids be kids.

– Charlie S.

Opening or not opening schools is not about the safety of the kids. We know they will most likely be unharmed by the virus. It’s the teachers and staff. It’s the kids’ parents and families. It’s the bus drivers. There’s a lot to be concerned about.

– Charles S.

Was Friday's missive on Trump taken "out of context" as Harry believes? Does Bill owe his readers an apology, like Malcolm suggests? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

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