| No further clarity about the health of the labor market in the United States emerged from today’s jobless claims data. If anything, the claims report just muddied things up. Economists had expected a slight rise in unemployment claims, largely because rising coronavirus infections across the country have led governments and businesses to slow down or reverse reopening plans. Economists also tend to forecast the trend, meaning they often project that recent trends will continue. So after claims held steady a few weeks ago and rose last week, the easiest forecast was for another rise. Instead, claims fell – a lot. Initial claims fell by 249,000 to 1,186,000 from 1,435,000. That’s better than a 17% drop. Ongoing claims dropped by 844,000, nearly a 5% decline. Those get reported with a week’s lag, so they don’t even reflect the apparent strength in the most recent week. This seems to indicate that July’s labor market was stronger than it appeared to be in the disastrous ADP report published yesterday or the ISM manufacturing and services sector surveys. It may even indicate that the labor market faltered a bit in late June and early July but then recovered – perhaps because the Trump administration made it clear that it would not seek another nationwide shutdown of the economy. That strength, however, may have come too late to show up in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ closely watched monthly employment report, due out tomorrow. That report is based on a mid-month snapshot and wouldn’t catch any late-in-the-month weakness. For what it’s worth, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast the report to show 1.5 million jobs were added in July and the unemployment rate fell to 10.6% from 11.1% in June. Some economists, including those at Goldman Sachs, think the economy may have lost millions of jobs in the month and expect the unemployment rate to rise. Whatever the result, it is likely to have an impact on the negotiations now underway on Capitol Hill over the next round of coronavirus relief legislation, especially the provisions related to unemployment benefits. A larger-than-expected drop in unemployment – say somewhere below 10% – might kill off any Republican support for reinstating the enhanced benefits. A smaller drop or an increase in unemployment could have the opposite effect, laying to rest any resistance to reviving the boost. That dynamic could explain the buoyancy of stocks despite all the uncertainty. If tomorrow’s jobs numbers are better than expected, that’s a positive sign for the economy and good for stocks. If they’re worse, Congress is more likely to pass relief legislation to boost the economy, also good for stocks. – Alex Marlow, Breitbart News Network
TOP STORY 
New claims for unemployment benefits declined by 249,000 to 1.186 million last week, data from the Department of Labor showed Thursday. This is the 20th consecutive week of initial claims above 1 million, but it was much better than expected. Economists had forecast 1.442 million new claims, a slight increase from the previous week. The prior week was revised up by 1,000 to 1.435 million. Claims hit a record 6.87 million for the week of March 27. Until two weeks ago, each subsequent week has seen claims decline. In last week's report, based on the previous week's labor market, claims actually rose. That was seen as a signal that the labor market could be stalling as infection rates surged higher in many parts of the country. [Click here for more] | Recommended Link | Bezos + Musk + Zuckerberg + U.S. Military Chasing This New Tech Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and Mark Zuckerberg... Along with the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and Pentagon... Are all piling into a controversial new technology.
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IN OTHER STORIES… The chief investment officer of the nation's largest public pension fund resigned Wednesday amid controversy over his ties to a Chinese sovereign massive wealth fund. The California Public Employees' Retirement System – better known as CalPERS – manages about $360 billion and has been described as one of the most influential pension fund investors in the U.S. It said Wednesday that its chief investment officer, Yu "Ben" Meng, had stepped down from his position after less than two years on the job. [Click here for more] Americans oppose the inflow of foreign visa workers and seasonal workers by roughly two-to-one during the coronavirus epidemic and crash, according to a new survey by the highly ranked Ipsos polling firm. The strongest opposition in the NPR-funded poll came from women, of whom just 24 percent supported the continued inflow of foreign workers, such as H-1B and OPT graduates, H-2B seasonal laborers, and J-1 university workers. [Click here for more] During an interview with the Fox News Rundown podcast released on Wednesday, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) criticized the HEROES Act, the $3 trillion coronavirus legislation passed by House Democrats back in May, by stating that he doesn't "support that amount that they're putting towards different areas," and arguing that while there are needs, "you can't cure all of the social needs within a pandemic bill or a health crisis bill." [Click here for more]
FROM THE MAGANOMICS INSTITUTE… What happens once the pandemic subsides? [Click here for more]
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