Another big step down

Bill Bonner’s Diary

Another Big Step Down

By Bill Bonner

Friday, September 11, 2020 – Week 26 of the Quarantine

Bill Bonner

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – A K-shaped recovery.

The “rich” on the upstroke… The “poor” headed down.

The rich working remotely… The poor barely working at all.

The “rich” in their suburbs, vacation homes, and Zoom Towns… The poor struggling to pay their rent or mortgage..

The “rich” enjoying their stock market gains… The poor waiting for their next check from the government.

The rich, fat, and sassy, ready to send in their ballots… The poor picking up rocks, ready for a revolution.

Boneheaded Decisions

Yesterday, we looked at what has happened so far in the 21st century. Boom… bust… war… debt… disappointment.

But that took us only up to 2020.

This year, the disappointment intensified… with two of the most boneheaded decisions in government history crowded into the space of just 30 days.

First, the feds shut down the source of real wealth for 90% of the population – the Main Street economy. Then, they tried to use their quack medicine – fake money – to revive it.

But this time, they didn’t merely give the magic elixir to Wall Street, hoping some of it would dribble off its chin into the real economy.

This time, they gave money directly to Main Street, too.

The trouble is, while counterfeit money (with no real wealth behind it) works for Wall Street, it doesn’t work for Main Street. The latest unemployment numbers – even the official ones – show new jobs lagging. Here’s The New York Times:

Despite some signs of economic revival, the outlook for American workers remains treacherous, with layoffs continuing to claim hundreds of thousands of jobs a week.

The weekly figures on unemployment claims from the Labor Department on Thursday showed no relief, reflecting what Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, said was “a transition to a slower pace of recovery, and one that will be more uneven.”

The department reported that more than 857,000 workers filed new claims for state unemployment insurance last week, before seasonal adjustments, a slight increase from the previous week. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the total was 884,000, unchanged from the revised figure for the previous week.

A Revolutionary New Force Set to Create 818,236 New Millionaires Over the Next Three Years…

Downsizing

You may say that is “only because of the virus.” But it seems to be more than that. Attitudes have changed. Habits, too.

From our office in Baltimore comes this update:

We’re downsizing. We now only need half as much space. We found that we could work perfectly well remotely. Now, the office is open, but only a few people are coming here to work. The rest work from home. All we really need are a few offices and a few meeting rooms.

This is great news. It means we can save on office space, cutting our rental costs in half.

But what about the landlords? What about property prices?

Manipulate and Control

Meanwhile, from New York comes news that restaurants will be allowed to open for indoor dining next week – but only at one quarter capacity.

Let’s see… How does that work? How many restaurants can survive high New York rents with only a quarter of the customers?

Like Sweden, now that the virus has cut through the Empire State, the number of new COVID-related deaths has dropped to the floor. In New York restaurants today, you are more likely to die by choking on a piece of meat than from catching the coronavirus.

But the politicos/world improvers have found a new way to manipulate and control the masses. We doubt they’ll give it up easily.

In airports, travelers still submit to screening and pat downs – 19 years to the day after the 9/11 attack. Now, to enter a restaurant in Manhattan, they will have their temperature taken. Will restaurant owners still be checking diners’ temperatures in 2039?

And don’t expect a “deus ex vaccine” to suddenly return things to normal. No vaccine for a coronavirus has ever been proven effective. And even if one is eventually developed, it won’t be widely employed any time soon.

Looking for the next tech cash cow? This is it.

America’s Descent

Meanwhile, people are getting used to a new economy – one where they depend more heavily than ever before on the government… not just to tell them what to do, but to give them money.

That is what marks a big step down in America’s descent. The Federal Reserve can support Wall Street; the “benefit” is immediate and unmistakable. The harm, on the other hand, is long-term and almost invisible.

As we’ve seen over and over, the fake money raises asset prices and makes investors happy. It also shifts their attention from long-term, productive investment – new factories, new products, new employees – to short-term money-hustles.

Share buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and borrowing money to fund bonuses and dividends – all provide quick gains for investors, but no real benefit to the economy.

As a result, GDP growth rates have been falling for the last 50 years. In the first three years of the Trump Administration, they averaged only half what they had been in the 1970s and 1980s. This year, they are negative.

Same Treatment

And now, the feds are giving the same scammy treatment to Main Street that they’ve been giving to Wall Street for decades.

But what happens when you give money to the 90% of people who don’t own stocks? What do you get? Do you make them all richer? Richer than whom?

Ah… there’s the flimflam. Counterfeit money never adds to a nation’s wealth; it merely moves it around.

The investor is “richer” when he can cash in his stocks and buy more goods and services in the Main Street economy. He’s “richer” than the 90% without financial assets.

But who will the 90% be richer than? From whom will they buy real goods and services? Only themselves.

What you get when you try to “stimulate” the Main Street economy is more people with more money bidding against each other.

Again, this is no problem on Wall Street. Prices go up; everybody’s happy.

But when it happens on Main Street, it’s a whole ‘nuther thing.

More to come…

Regards,

signature

Bill


Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@rogueeconomics.com.


MAILBAG

In today’s mailbag, dear readers long for the “good old days”…

How we older folks long for the good old days. Back when manners were observed, even when dealing with those on the opposite side of the fence. But it also makes me wonder about our generation’s diversion from that of our parents and how they must have felt. It seems we were much more polite as we turned to Rock and Roll and long hair while protesting the war in Vietnam, but they certainly thought we had gone wild. They saw it as the beginning of the end, and it seems maybe they were right. It just took longer to get here.

Though could it be we are seeing it ahead of the time as they did? Hopefully, the future will surprise us and America will somehow rise above the current madness and survive the challenges (both from the mad-mass monetary printing and the cultural revolution manifesting itself currently). I don’t have faith in either of our political party’s candidates’ abilities to lead us out of this, but maybe something will morph into an answer that we don’t yet see. I certainly hope so, because the great idea of America would be a terrible loss to humanity.

– Gary C.

I’m 83 and I think America’s better days are behind me. When I was young, I was filled with the promise of a bright and even better future. That promise began to go south on November 22, 1963 and is still headed in that direction. It all comes down to one pivotal point: the economy. The billionaire power structure that has taken control of the world economy has not been satisfied, they now lust for the power to control the life of every human being on the planet. Ordinary folk do not have a strong desire for power and don’t understand that there are those who will go all out to achieve it.

I tell folks who are upset about the current status that it is because we are controlled by the “One Percenters,” who are the power mongers but they don’t understand or believe me. How so many people can surrender their freedom to a cabal of so few boggles my mind. Up until last year, I imagined that I could easily live to be 100. But now, I hope I don’t.

– Roy P.

And another dear reader pushes back on Bill’s recent analysis of Trump

You get many things right, but you are wrong about Trump. Suppose millions of people were evicted for not paying their rent, which they could not do when the government killed their jobs along with the economy. Can you spell riots on steroids? Can you imagine civil war? Trump is doing the best possible for everybody considering the circumstances. We need to open up the world right now and stop mandating people stay home.

– Adams W.

Do we need to open the world back up, without reservation, as Adams believes? Are America’s best days behind her? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

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