The Key to Breakthrough Discoveries in Life and Trading

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Hey Trader,

I hope you had a wonderful weekend!

My topic for today is "breakthroughs" ... Did you have a breakthrough this weekend?

Did you witness a loved one, a friend or even a complete stranger have a breakthrough?

Breakthroughs are typically bittersweet - the process of achieving a breakthrough can be painful BUT it means you've accomplished something... Something new, something different, something that you've worked for… There was some sort of struggle or fear that you had to overcome.

Personal breakthroughs are just as important as breakthroughs in your trading career.

I hope that you identify the current obstacles to your success and find a way to break through.

"In the end, someone or something always gives up. It is either you who gives up and quits OR the obstacle / failure that gives up and makes way for your success to shine through."

Wishing You A Blessed & Profitable Week Ahead,

To Big Profits and Beyond,

Anthony Speciale Jr

Editor & Chief Investment Strategist, Big Energy Profits

Hawkeye Traders
team1@hawkeyetraders.com
hawkeyetraders.com

Crude News

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil was under pressure last week and in a position to close lower for a second consecutive week on growing demand worries and an unexpected rise in U.S. stockpiles that raised new concerns about oversupply. The U.S. benchmark was on track to lose about 6% last week.

The market has been under pressure all week starting with Saudi Arabia's surprise move to cut prices on oil it supplies to Asia by $1.00 starting in October. A second wave of selling pressure is being fueled by a surprise rise in U.S. stockpiles as the coronavirus pandemic continues to erode demand for fuels.

Compounding the weakness was a second consecutive weekly decline in U.S. stock indexes as well as U.S. economic indicators that suggested a long and difficult recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Additionally, further dampening the market's mood, the U.S. Senate killed a Republican bill that would have provided around $300 billion in new coronavirus aid. In another bearish sign, traders were starting to book tankers again to store crude oil and diesel, amid a stalled economic recovery at the COVID-19 pandemic continues.

Unless there is a wave of short-covering or profit-taking ahead of the weekend, sellers should continue to dominate the trade this week. Earlier last week, it was demand worries driving the market lower, after the release of the EIA data, we can now add oversupply concerns to the growing list of bearish factors weighing on prices.

The Saudis had previously supported the rally by raising pricing each month from June to August. However, demand from refineries has softened due to weak profits from turning crude into gasoline and other fuels.

Even as economies began to recover, swollen stockpiles – rather than supplies of fresh crude – absorbed much of the increase in demand.

One way to generate demand is to lower prices. Let's see if it works. If it doesn't, then OPEC and its allies may have to revisit the idea of gradually reducing production into the end of the year.

With the U.S. summer driving season coming to a close, Washington policymakers failing to pass stimulus legislation and COVID-19 cases still rising, it's hard to tell where the demand will come from to turn the markets around unless prices hit a major value area.

I expect to see buyers resurface on a test of $34.82 to $32.58. This price range represents the best near-term value area.

How to Master Market Cycle Psychology:

The Anxiety Phase

If there's any story that represents anxiety in the market cycle, it would be the story of Icarus…

The boy who flew too close to the sun, lost his wings, and drowned.

Unfortunately, many traders share this similar fate with their investments. They get too giddy and excited after experiencing euphoria.

They feel invincible so they get complacent and think their investments will go even higher. But that kind of recklessness always brings them right down to earth.

It Creeps In

Anxiety in the market cycles is the initial breakdown of euphoria. And no one can predict exactly when it creeps in.

It just happens. But it's usually predicated by real-time events. And for the traders that pay attention to the events unfolding, they see the writing's on the wall and act before things get worse.

So after all the euphoria, are you paying attention to what follows next? If you don't want to worry about margin calls or corrections, you should have things set in place to protect your account. It also helps not to live under a rock because anxiety gets in your face as well.

The Writing's On the Wall

Seven months ago, the coronavirus swept our planet with fear. And it filled every facet of life. Businesses shut down, major events canceled and COVID-19 infections were on the rise.

This naturally put the market cycle at a time of anxiety. The stock market set a record for its worst day since 1987.

Bitcoin also had its biggest drop from $7,500 to $3,800 in less than 24 hours.

But despite all that devastation some traders saw the writing on the wall, stuck to their lane and made their exits accordingly.

There are many ways to sidestep anxiety. Either:

  • Have the benefit and luxury of inside trading
  • Set stop-losses
  • Take your planned and projected profits (avoid greed)
  • Hold out for lower market cycles and "buy the dips"

Don't Panic

Anxiety is perfectly natural and there are just too many real world events that are out of your control but how you respond is what matters.

Remember, you are just one speck or cog in the universe. Just like Icarus, there was no way for him to defy the sun as there's no way for you to defy the events of the market.

But you can still maintain your plot path.

Be aware of where you are in space and time and pay attention to these events around you. Follow your trading strategies, maintain your path, and prepare.

Because the worst is still yet to come.

The Rich Are Already Using "Base Hits" Trades to Win Massive Paydays

Traders who want their money to grow every year will be more profitable in the long run if they make consistent "base hit" trades.

These "base hit" wins fly under the radar of most other traders because they just aren't big enough.

But if you make enough of these "base hit" trades your trading account balance will grow like wildfire.

It only takes 36 of these trades to double your account, after all.

And there is only one indicator capable of delivering consistent "base hit" trading opportunities.

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Weekly Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $44.33 will change the main trend to up. A move through $25.31 will reaffirm the downtrend. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% correction.

The main range is $59.51 to $25.31. Its 50% to 61.80% retracement zone at $42.41 to $46.45 is the major resistance. This zone stopped the rally at $44.33 during the week-ending August 28.

The minor trend is down. It changed to down this week when sellers took out the minor bottom at $39.63. This move shifted momentum to the downside after an 18 week rally.

The short-term range is $25.31 to $44.33. Its retracement zone at $34.82 to $32.58 is the primary downside target.

Weekly Technical Forecast

This week's downside momentum is expected to continue over the near-term with $34.82 to $32.58 the primary downside target.

In my opinion, this zone represents value so we expect aggressive countertrend buyers to come in on a test of this area. They will be attempting to produce a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom.

Any short-covering rallies are expected to draw the attention of new short-sellers. The first potential resistance is $40.90, followed by $42.41.

Key Reversal Days and/or Turning Points for this WEEK:

Tuesday … Thursday

Key active RESISTANCE price areas for this WEEK are likely to be:

37.70 - 37.90, 38.80 - 39.00, 40.00 - 40.25, 41.00 - 41.40, 42.50 - 42.70

Key active SUPPORT price areas for this WEEK are likely to be:

36.60 - 36.40, 35.40, 34.20, 33.05, 32.00 - 31.75

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