Forex analysis review |
- Forecast for AUD/USD on October 20, 2020
- Forecast for USD/JPY on October 20, 2020
- Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 20. Possible resignation of Boris Johnson. What will be the relationship between the
- Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 20. Christine Lagarde believes that the EU economy will shrink from 8% to 12% in 2020.
- Commodity currency pairs AUD/USD & USD/CAD & NZD/USD on 4-hour charts. Comprehensive analysis of APLs & ZUP
- GBP/USD. Miracles of stress tolerance: Pound rises, despite EU summit's disappointing results
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on October 20. Analysis of Monday trades. Getting ready
- October 19, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.
- Gold rejected at key short-term resistance
- October 19, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- October 19, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- Short-term technical analysis of EURUSD for October 19, 2020
- NZDUSD head and shoulders pattern still possible but still not activated
- EUR / USD: unjustified market expectations and euro's fragile growth
- U.S. election sends USDX below 93.00
- Gold continues to soar amid weak dollar
- US elections threaten many assets
- Pound slightly rises debunking Johnson's threat of a futile Brexit
- Crypto market: How not to lose millions of dollars on cryptocurrency
- BTC analysis for October 19,.2020 - Potential for upside continuation. Watch for the breakout of the sideways base to confirm
- Analysis of Gold for October 19,.2020 - First target at the price of $1.913 has been reached. Potential for test of the second
- Oil decreases in price due to news from China
- GBP/USD: plan for the American session on October 19 (analysis of morning deals)
- EUR/USD: plan for the American session on October 19 (analysis of morning deals)
- EUR/USD analysis for October 19 2020 - First upward target at the price of 1.1770 has been reached. Potential for the second
| Forecast for AUD/USD on October 20, 2020 Posted: 19 Oct 2020 08:36 PM PDT AUD/USD The Australian dollar tested the target support of 0.7058 yesterday, and overcame it this morning. The Marlin oscillator continues to decline in the negative area, now it is aiming for the support of the embedded price channel line in the 0.6955 area. The four-hour chart shows that the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has moved down for the second time from the border of the growth area. The oscillator has a solid potential path for declining further ahead. We are waiting for the price at the indicated level of 0.6955.  |
| Forecast for USD/JPY on October 20, 2020 Posted: 19 Oct 2020 08:34 PM PDT USD/JPY The dollar strengthened against the yen by 4 points on Monday, which, with the overall fall of the US stock market by 1.63% (S&P 500), demonstrates the dollar's strong position (or, rather, the weak position of the yen, since the dollar index lost 0.30% yesterday). Today we expect the market to recover, as the forecast for US new home construction for September is expected to rise from $1.416 million to $1.457 million. At the moment, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered the growing trend zone on the daily chart. The price also tends to go above the balance indicator line, afterwards the growth potential will increase by 20%. The price is facing resistance from the MACD line at 105.78. Overcoming it opens the way to 106.23. Leaving the area above 106.23 opens the next target at 106.96. The price is struggling with the resistance of the MACD line (105.64) on the four-hour chart. Settling in the area above it will become a prerequisite for successfully breaking through the daily line (105.78). The price chooses a growth scenario. Make sure that reserve forces for the USD/JPY pair are available for its execution. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 Oct 2020 05:14 PM PDT 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways. CCI: 36.5842 The British pound sterling paired with the US currency on Monday returned to a "stormy" state. During the day, the pair rose by more than 120 points, although there were no special reasons for this. However, over the past two weeks, the British currency has repeatedly demonstrated high volatility and frequent changes in direction. This still indicates that the market is in a panic or something like it. And market participants really have something to panic about right now. We have listed more than once the problems that the UK has already faced and will definitely face in 2021. In short, the British economy may continue to experience serious problems, even if the "coronavirus" epidemic is defeated. There is likely to be no trade deal with the EU. A trade deal with the US is even more questionable. Brexit itself will deal a new blow to British businesses and consumers. And thanks to the bill "on the internal market of Great Britain", London can not only remain in strained relations with Brussels but also finally quarrel with it. Recall that Johnson wants his bill, which violates the agreements with the EU reached last year, to come into force if it is not possible to agree on a free trade agreement before a certain deadline, which he sets himself. Thus, if this is not another attempt at the bluff, the bill will come into force, since it has already been approved twice by the Parliament, where the majority of votes are concentrated in the hands of conservatives. In addition, do not forget about the "Scottish question". Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will seek new permission from London to hold a referendum on independence in 2021. And even if a positive response is not received (and it will not be received), it will mean a heating up of relations between London and Edinburgh. Thus, the nervousness of market participants for the pound/dollar pair is quite understandable. In addition, a change of power in 2021 in the UK is not completely excluded. If a deal with the EU is not reached, it will be Johnson's biggest defeat as Prime Minister, where he was so eager and in a hurry to get. The British, the Parliament, and its own party members may not forgive Johnson for this blunder. Already, some British media are spreading rumors that there is already a candidate to replace Johnson – Rishi Sunak, who currently holds the post of Finance Minister. Also yesterday, it was reported that Boris Johnson is not happy with his salary as Prime Minister, which is about 150,000 pounds a year. The British tabloid Daily Mirror writes that his predecessor Theresa May earned more than 1 million pounds during the time after her resignation, giving lectures. Boris Johnson has six children and also has to pay alimony to his ex-wife. Therefore, the British media believe that Johnson may leave his post on financial issues. It's hard to tell if this is true or not. But, as they say, there is no smoke without fire. This rumor can only be launched to justify the future resignation of Johnson, who as Prime Minister has not achieved any significant victories and is still leading the UK and its economy into the abyss. At the same time, the future cooperation between the United States and the United Kingdom, which Johnson now has high hopes for, is in question. The fact is that it is Donald Trump who considers Johnson a friend and promises him a trade agreement. But Joe Biden, who is likely to become the next US President, does not have such warm feelings for the British Prime Minister. Moreover, Biden has Irish roots and highly honors the Belfast Agreement of 1998. Therefore, any possible conflicts on the island of Ireland that may arise due to the new regime that will operate after Brexit can only further distance Washington and London from each other. Moreover, Biden believes that London should clearly adhere to any agreements with the European Union, especially the Brexit agreement of 2019, and especially the protocol on the Northern Irish border, which Johnson intends to violate with his "internal market" bill. Well, how can we not remember that any new financial and economic problems will inevitably lead to a new easing of the Bank of England's monetary policy? And this is an absolutely bearish factor for the British currency. BA has been exploring the possibility of introducing negative rates for several months and has already started consulting with commercial banks on whether they can withstand a new rate cut. Thus, the vast majority of experts believe that lowering the rate is just a matter of time. As early as 2020, the Bank of England may expand its quantitative easing program by another 50 or 100 billion pounds, which will also be a "bearish" factor for the pound. Well, at the same time, do not forget about the "coronavirus" epidemic, which caused the greatest damage among all EU countries to the UK, and the current situation in the Foggy Albion also leaves much to be desired. According to the Johns Hopkins University website, about 15,000 new cases are reported in Britain every day. Recall that in the spring, already with 5 thousand diseases a day, the British health system was experiencing serious problems. Thus, given the range of current and potential problems that London has, we do not expect a strong strengthening of the British currency in 2020-2021. One gets the impression that the pound is now walking on a knife's edge and can go down at any moment. The uncertainty about the future of the United States and its economy somehow keeps the British pound afloat. From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair changes the direction of movement every day, so it is impossible to state any trend now. You can trade using lower timeframes, and even then very carefully. You should also take into account the high volatility of the pair in recent days. Four of the last six trading days ended with a passage of more than 126 points.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 134 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Tuesday, October 20, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2854 and 1.3139. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of downward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.2970 S2 – 1.2939 S3 – 1.2909 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3000 R2 – 1.3031 R3 – 1.3062 Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD pair has started a new strong upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe, however, it is difficult to say how long it will last. Thus, today it is recommended to trade for an increase with the targets of 1.3031, 1.3062, and 1.3092 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.2909, 1.2878, and 1.2854 if the price returns to the area below the moving average line. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 Oct 2020 05:14 PM PDT 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways. CCI: 104.3994 During the first trading day of the week, the EUR/USD pair started to grow sharply and unexpectedly for many. Although, from a technical point of view, this growth was even a little obvious. The fact is that if you look at the lower charts, you can clearly see that the pair once again failed to overcome the level of 1.1700, which for a long time was the lower line of the side channel of $ 1.17 - $ 1.19. Nothing else can explain the sharp rise of the European currency. Thus, the pair once again consolidated above the moving average line, and the trend changed to an upward one. However, over the past three months, this is an absolutely normal scenario. Recall that even if the quotes repeatedly go beyond the $ 1.17 - $ 1.19 channel, the main part of trading takes place in this range. Thus, formally, the flat is preserved in the long term. The macroeconomic background has long been of no interest to market participants. We have repeatedly said why this is happening. The fact is that both the European and American economies suffered from the "coronavirus" and the subsequent "lockdown". When the "strict" quarantine measures were lifted, both economies began to recover synchronously. Thus, now all statistics are purely formal, as the economies of both countries continue to be in a state of shock. Yes, the US economy shrank three times as much in the second quarter as the European one, however, the euro has also grown by 13 cents against the dollar over the past six months. And reports like inflation or industrial production are now of no interest to anyone, because it is one thing to grow by 1% or decline by 1% in a quiet and peaceful time, but another thing – in times of crisis, when all reports show discouraging values. On Monday, October 19, regular performances of Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell, who have been performing very often lately, were scheduled. And most of their performances did not cause any market reaction. Here the situation is the same as with macroeconomic statistics. When the heads of central banks speak once a month and provide really important information about changing views on the economy or possible adjustments to monetary policy parameters, this information makes the markets worry and make trading decisions. When Christine Lagarde speaks with a frequency of once every two days and each time the rhetoric does not differ from the previous speech, then this news does not concern traders in any way. For example, yesterday Christine Lagarde said that new restrictions that are being introduced in all EU countries due to the second "wave" of the epidemic add uncertainty for businesses and households. In other words, Lagarde fears that the economy will start shrinking again and require an additional stimulus. However, just a couple of months ago, the EU agreed on a recovery fund for 750 billion euros, which has not even started functioning yet. Thus, a new downturn in the economy may cause new problems. However, Lagarde has previously stated that the probability of a second "wave" is high and the probability of new economic problems comes with it. So this is not news. The words of the head of the ECB that monetary policy should remain "soft" should not have come as a shock to traders either. And so it is clear that for a couple of years, the rates will at least remain at "ultra-low" values. Lagarde also said that by the end of 2020, the EU economy will lose from 8% to 12%. Given that Lagarde's rhetoric was negative for the euro, and the euro currency showed growth on Monday, it is unlikely that a parallel can be drawn between these two events. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump felt that he had not made loud statements about the "coronavirus" for a long time. Recall that many statistical agencies and media have estimated that it is Donald Trump who is the number one supplier in the world for improbable information about the COVID-2019 virus. This time, Trump said that listening to scientists on the issue of "coronavirus" does not make sense, since they will recommend introducing a full "lockdown" to stop the spread of the pandemic, which will "kill" the economy of any country. Trump is partly right. Indeed, it is because of the "lockdown", which was introduced in almost every country in the world in the spring, that the economy suffered the most. But also do not forget that we are talking about the lives of people, and the government of any country should take care of the most vulnerable segments of the population, who suffer the most from the crisis. This is why citizens pay taxes, and any state should have a reserve fund and a plan for such cases. So first of all, this is not the problem of American citizens and residents of the entire planet, but the problems of governments that were not ready for a pandemic either in the spring or in the fall. Also, Donald Trump said that Joe Biden becomes president, he will immediately close the country to quarantine, which will cause a powerful drop in the economy. "He will listen to scientists! If I listened to scientists, our country would be in a huge depression, and we are not a rocket ship," the US President said. He once again urged not to vote for Biden. The Democrats' headquarters immediately responded to Trump's new attack: "Donald Trump destroyed the economy inherited from Obama, ignoring the warnings of scientists and doctors who save lives around the clock." Returning to the topic of the US election, The Economist magazine raised its forecasts for Joe Biden's victory. Earlier, after modeling the election, the magazine concluded that Biden would win the election with a 91% probability and gave him 341 "electoral votes" out of 538 possible. The new forecast suggests that Biden will get at least 347 votes with 270 needed to win. Also, all the latest research shows that Biden leads by a margin of at least 11% in the general vote. In addition, even most "contested" states tend to choose a Democrat. Thus, two weeks before Election Day, the balance of power between the two presidential contenders has not changed. As for the prospects of the euro/dollar currency pair, we do not yet see how it can leave the approximate side channel with a width of 250-300 points. We believe that it will be extremely difficult for the US dollar to get more expensive before the election. The US currency had a chance to get ahead a little, taking advantage of the difficult epidemiological situation in the EU. However, trading on Monday already showed that buyers of the dollar are not particularly eager now.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of October 20 is 70 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1714 and 1.1854. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down may signal a new round of downward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.1719 S2 – 1.1658 S3 – 1.1597 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.1780 R2 – 1.1841 R3 – 1.1902 Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair started a new round of upward movement and overcame the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in buy orders with a target of 1.1841 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair returns to the area below the moving average line with targets of 1.1719 and 1.1658. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 Oct 2020 05:03 PM PDT The Minute operating scale (H4) Is the US Dollar continuing to dominate commodity currencies? Overview of AUD/USD & USD/CAD & NZD/USD H4 possibilities from October 20, 2020 ____________________ Australian Dollar vs US Dollar The development of the movement of the Australian Dollar in the AUD/USD pair from October 20, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:
In case of a breakdown of the support level [B] 0.7085 / B] on the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale pitchfork, the downward movement of AUD / USD can be directed towards these targets:
A breakout of the 0.7110 resistance level will make it important to develop the movement of the Australian Dollar inside the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (0.7110 - 0.7127 - 0.7145) with the possibility of reaching the equilibrium zone (0.7175 - 0.7205 - 0.7235) of the Minuette operational scale pitchforks and channel boundaries 1/2 Median Line (0.7235 - 0.7290 - 0.7350) which is a fork of the Minute operational scale. ____________________ US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar The movement of the Canadian Dollar in the USD/CAD pair from October 20, 2020 will also depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:
Breakdown of the reaction line RL38.2 Minuette: there will be a resistance level of 1.3185 and the resumption of the development of the USD / CAD upward movement to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3210 - 1.3245 - 1.3280) and to the equilibrium zone (1.3300 - 1.3350 - 1.3400) of the Minuette operating scale pitchfork. In case of a breakdown of the support level 1.3140 on the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale, the development of the Canadian Dollar's movement may continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3090 - 1.3030 - 1.2980) of the Minute operational scale pitchfork. ____________________ New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar The New Zealand Dollar in the NZD/USD pair from October 20, 2020, as in the first two cases, will continue to move depending on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:
If the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale pitchfork is broken down to the support of level 0.6625, the development of the NZD/USD pair's movement may continue to the targets:
with the prospect of reaching the borders of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6555 - 0.6525 - 0.6495) which is a fork of the Minuette operational scale. A breakout of the resistance level 0.6660 on the UTL control line for the Minuette operational scale is an option to continue the development of the upward movement of the New Zealand Dollar towards these goals:
____________________ The review is compiled without taking into account the news background and the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing buy or sell orders). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD. Miracles of stress tolerance: Pound rises, despite EU summit's disappointing results Posted: 19 Oct 2020 03:08 PM PDT The dollar is falling, the pound is growing: these are the trends on Monday. The British currency withstood the blow after the devastating EU summit, while the greenback is losing ground amid political uncertainty in the United States. This disposition made it possible for buyers of the GBP/USD pair to test the key resistance level of 1.3000. Last week, traders could not gain a foothold in the 30th figure, and after the results of the summit in Brussels were announced, they completely retreated to the middle of the 28th price level. But the pound found the strength to confront the situation, so today it took revenge. Today's news background contributed to the growth of GBP/USD. So, the EU summit, long-awaited by many traders, ended last Friday to no avail. The parties could not find a compromise on many key issues and, accordingly, could not agree on a trade deal that would regulate relations between Britain and the European Union from January 1, 2021, when the post-Brexit transition period ends. If London and Brussels fail to find a common denominator by January, the British will have to trade with the EU on common terms, like all WTO members. That is, pay the same fees that companies from third countries pay now. During the summit, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson once again offered the Europeans the so-called "Canadian option", according to which London will conclude a deal with Brussels, similar to the Comprehensive Free Trade Area (CETA) Agreement between the European Union and Canada. This option allows for almost duty-free trade, with the exception of a number of goods and services market. Alternatively, the British propose to go according to the "Australian option." In this case, the parties can choose on which sectors of the economy they can come to an agreement, while all other areas will be governed by the rules of the World Trade Organization. In turn, the EU representatives once again reminded Johnson that the future relations between the UK and the EU cannot be compared with the relations between Brussels and Canada or Australia (with which the EU also has a separate deal). In addition, the parties were unable to reach a compromise on the most difficult issues of the deal under discussion. In particular, we are talking about issues of compliance with fair competition, fishing and dispute resolution mechanisms. Given this outcome of the negotiations, the rhetoric of the representatives of London and Brussels was predictable. Both Boris Johnson and Britain's chief negotiator David Frost said over the weekend that the UK is "preparing to trade with the EU without an agreement." According to them, this option involves, in particular, the introduction of export taxes and customs inspections. European representatives were more restrained in their assessments, but at the same time said they were not ready to conclude an agreement "at any cost". Despite such disappointing results of the summit, the pound not only stayed afloat, but even showed character Monday afternoon, rising against the dollar to the 30th figure. What is the reason for such stress tolerance? First, the disastrous result was predictable - the day before the summit, there was information that the meeting would not end the negotiations. One could, of course, hope for a miracle, but it did not happen. On the whole, the empty results of the summit were already included in prices. Secondly, (and, in my opinion, this is the most important thing), the parties agreed on further negotiations. It is worth recalling here that on the eve of the summit, Boris Johnson threatened to interrupt the dialogue if the parties did not make progress. The French, who are the most ardent opponents of the British on the Brexit issue, voiced a rather tough position. But de facto negotiations continue, albeit (for now) by telephone. Moreover, today there was information that the British government is ready to revise the most controversial provisions of the controversial bill on the internal market in order to break the deadlock in negotiations with the European Union. Let me remind you that the aforementioned bill, in fact, negates some provisions of the already concluded Brexit deal (we are talking about the "transparency" of the Irish border). The resonant document was approved in the Lower House of Parliament (i.e. in the House of Commons) and sent for approval to the Upper House (i.e. in the House of Lords). It is worth noting here that the lords cannot cancel an already adopted bill, but can make their own changes by sending the document for reconsideration. So, according to Bloomberg, the Lower House will agree with the pro-European amendments of the Lords and thereby unleash the existing problem. Actually, this was the reason why the pound grew. In general, longs are still relevant for the GBP/USD pair. Figuratively speaking, the market "didn't believe" the failed results of the October EU summit, as there is a general confidence among traders that the parties will eventually come to a compromise at the November meeting (scheduled for 15-18), or prolong the transition period. This explains the fact that the pound held back the blow, despite all the loud statements, accusations and other negative signals. As soon as the pair settles above 1.3000, we can consider buying to the next resistance level of 1.3090 - at this price point, the upper line of the BB indicator coincides with the upper border of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 Oct 2020 09:48 AM PDT EUR/USD hourly chart On Monday, October 19, the EUR/USD currency pair moved sharply upwards in the early trade. We mentioned this scenario in our yesterday's article. We have also warned that the level of 1.1696 is rather strong, so the two consecutive pullbacks from this level could trigger a new round of an upward movement. Thus, we recommended buying the pair following a new buy signal of the MACD indicator. Those traders who have opened buy deals have received a profit of about 50 pips, which is a fairly good result. After a strong upward movement during the day, we expect the pair to enter the phase of a downward correction. The trend has changed to an upward one. However, we recommend opening new long positions only after the pair completes the correction and the MACD indicator returns to the zero level. Currently, there are no new trendlines or channels seen on the chart, and they are unlikely to form in the near future. Moreover, the pair will most likely stay within the 1.17-1.19 sideways channel where it has spent the last three months. On Monday, there were no key macroeconomic releases in the EU and the US. However, there were two speeches delivered by the heads of the EU and US central banks. While Jerome Powell spoke about the creation of digital currencies, Christine Lagarde said that the EU economy would face new challenges due to the second wave of COVID-19. She also mentioned that by the end of 2020, the EU economy would shrink by 8-12% instead of a 5% decrease expected earlier. Therefore, this news was unlikely to cause an uptrend in the pair. Nevertheless, it was the European currency that advanced today. Thus, we believe that the reason for this rise is connected with the technical factors rather than fundamental ones. On Tuesday, no significant economic events are expected in the US or the EU that novice traders need to pay attention to. Therefore, we believe that the technical factors should also prevail tomorrow. However, there are plenty of topics that can potentially influence the trajectory of the EUR/USD pair. For example, Democrats and Republicans may still reach an agreement over a new stimulus package for the US economy. In case the two parties reach a compromise, the US dollar will benefit greatly from this. In addition, we should not forget about the surge of coronavirus cases in Europe. The higher the infection rate is, the more likely that the EU economy will slow down again. Of course, this is a negative factor for the European currency. Possible scenarios for October 20: 1) Buy deals on the EUR/USD pair have become relevant at the moment, as the price has moved above the descending trendline. We recommend that beginners wait until the downward correction is completed and the MACD indicator returns to the zero level. Following a new buy signal, you can start opening new long positions with the targets at 1.1797 and above. Tomorrow morning, new support and resistance levels will be formed. We do not advise novice traders to open new long positions before this time. 2) You can consider selling the currency pair only when the downtrend is starting to form or the current upward trend is about to finish its formation. However, in the next few hours, this scenario seems impossible. So at least until tomorrow morning, the euro/dollars bears can relax and just observe the situation. On the chart Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trendlines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| October 19, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations. Posted: 19 Oct 2020 08:55 AM PDT
On September 25, The EURUSD pair has failed to maintain enough bearish momentum to enhance further bearish decline. Instead, recent ascending movement has been established within the depicted movement channel leading to bullish advancement towards 1.1750-1.1780 which failed to offer sufficient bearish pressure in the first attempt. Earlier last week, temporary breakout above 1.1750 was demonstrated as an indicator for a possible bullish continuation towards 1.1880 where the upper limit of the movement channel comes to meet the pair. However, immediate bearish decline brought the pair back below 1.1750. Hence, the price zone around 1.1750-1.1780 remains a Prominent Resistance-Zone as long as bearish persistence is maintained below it. Lower Projection Target levels are located around 1.1720, 1.1685 and 1.1600. On the other hand, bullish persistence above 1.1780 will probably enable more upside movement initially towards the price levels of 1.1820 and 1.1840. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Gold rejected at key short-term resistance Posted: 19 Oct 2020 08:42 AM PDT Gold price managed to briefly push above the key short-term resistance of $1,912 but sellers were stronger and price closed the 4 hour candlestick below the resistance level. This rejection is not a good sign for Gold bulls, however bulls still have hopes as long as price continues to make higher highs and higher lows.
Blue line- support trend line Green rectangles- higher lows Gold price is making higher lows along the blue upward sloping support trend line. But price is not breaking above the $1,912 resistance. If resistance breaks then Gold bulls will still have to break above another important resistance level. The $1,925 is the resistance level by the downward sloping resistance trend line that touches the recent 4 local highs.
One thing is for sure, bulls have a lot of work ahead of them in order to reclaim the $2,000 price level. A rejection at current levels and a break below $1,900 will increase chances for a deeper correction towards $1,850-$1,800. Traders need to be patient and watch the key levels as both scenarios are equally possible. Price now i closer to resistance so bulls need to be cautious. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| October 19, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 19 Oct 2020 08:38 AM PDT
In July, the EURUSD pair has failed to maintain bearish momentum strong enough to move below 1.1150 (consolidation range lower zone). Instead, bullish breakout above 1.1380-1.1400 has lead to a quick bullish spike directly towards 1.1750 which failed to offer sufficient bearish pressure. Bullish persistence above 1.1700-1.1760 favored further bullish advancement towards 1.1975 where some considerable bearish rejection has been demonstrated. The price zone around 1.1975-1.2000 ( upper limit of the technical channel ) constituted a SOLID SUPPLY-Zone which offered bearish pressure. Moreover, Intraday traders should have noticed the recent bearish closure below 1.1700 - 1.1750 as an indicator for a possible bearish reversal. As expected in previous articles, the price zone of 1.1850 - 1.1870 has been standing as a solid SUPPLY Zone providing considerable bearish pressure as well as a valid SELL Entry if any bullish pullback recurs soon. Further bearish decline should be expected towards the next Fibonacci Level at 1.1625 where price action should be watched for possible bearish continuation below it. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| October 19, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 19 Oct 2020 08:37 AM PDT
Intermediate-term technical outlook for the GBP/USD pair has remained bullish since bullish persistence was achieved above 1.2780 (Depicted Key-Level) on the H4 Charts. On the other hand, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought after such a quick bullish movement while approaching the price level of 1.3475. That's why, short-term bearish reversal was expected especially after bearish persistence was achieved below the newly-established key-level of 1.3300. A quick bearish decline took place towards 1.2900 then 1.2780 where considerable bullish rejection has been expressed during the past few weeks. The price zone of 1.3130-1.3150 (the backside of the broken-trend) remains an Intraday Key-Zone to offer bearish pressure if retested again. However, the GBPUSD pair has been showing lack of sufficient bullish momentum to pursue above the price level of 1.3000 upon the last few bullish trials. That's why, Bullish Persistence above the depicted price zone of 1.2975 -1.3000 is needed to allow bullish pullback to pursue towards higher price levels. Until then, the GBP/USD remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2840 - 1.3000 until breakout occurs in either directions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Short-term technical analysis of EURUSD for October 19, 2020 Posted: 19 Oct 2020 08:32 AM PDT EURUSD is bouncing higher after the back test of the broken trend line resistance. Price is approaching recent highs and important short-term resistance at 1.18. A sequence of higher highs and higher lows needs to be established in order for bulls to hope for a move towards 1.20-1.21.
Blue lines- expected path Green line -support and pivotal level EURUSD is moving higher at the start of this week. Resistance is found at recent highs at 1.18-1.830. Breaking above this level will open the way for a move towards 1.19. Support at 1.17 remains key. Breaking below this support level will open the way for a move towards 1.15-1.16. As long as price is above 1.17 bulls remain in control of the short-term trend hoping for the start of a new higher highs and higher lows sequence. Bears need to erase their hopes. To do this they will need to push price below 1.17. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| NZDUSD head and shoulders pattern still possible but still not activated Posted: 19 Oct 2020 08:28 AM PDT NZDUSD could still be forming the right hand shoulder. Price is still below the major resistance at 0.67 but also above the key support at 0.65-0.6520. If this neckline support breaks, then the head and shoulders pattern is activated and our target will be at 0.63.
Blue line - neckline support Red lines - size of downward move if support fails to hold NZDUSD has short term support the 0.6570 level. Breaking below this level will increase chances of a visit towards the neckline support at 0.65-0.6520. We have to remind that the head and shoulders pattern is activated only if the blue neckline support is broken. If this happens then traders should use the right hand shoulder high as stop and 0.63 as target. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR / USD: unjustified market expectations and euro's fragile growth Posted: 19 Oct 2020 08:13 AM PDT
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has set Tuesday, October 20, as the deadline for an agreement between Democrats and Republicans on additional aid to the US economy. By doing so, she gave investors hope that the deal could be reached fairly quickly. This led to an increase in stock indexes and a decrease in demand for a protective greenback. In addition, market participants drew attention to statistics from China. The country's GDP increased by 4.9% in July-September compared to the same period last year, which turned out to be below the consensus forecast of 5.5%, but higher than in the second quarter by 3.2%. "The Chinese economy continues to recover. This is facilitated by the growth of exports. The consumer spending situation is also improving, but it is too early to say that China has completely gone from the coronavirus shock," said Yoshiko Shimamini, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. Amid revival of risk interest and after an unsuccessful attempt to take the six-month resistance line at 93.80 - 93.90 points, the USD index fell to almost weekly lows near 93.20 points. If the rollback continues, the greenback may drop to the area of recent support (93.00) and further to 92.70. However, only two weeks are left before the presidential elections in the U.S., and, according to experts, it is unlikely that the deal, which the markets are so longing for, will nevertheless be concluded. "The dollar will continue to be in demand due to the low likelihood of agreeing on a new stimulus package before the US elections, as well as against the backdrop of a worsening epidemiological situation in the world," said CBA specialist Kim Mundy. According to the latest polls, Biden is ahead of Trump by about 10%. They are scheduled to host the final debate on Thursday, October 22. "Investors continue to closely follow the survey results. The main risk now is narrowing the gap between candidates, as this will reduce the likelihood of a Democratic victory, which is considered a bearish factor for the greenback, and will create the preconditions for challenging the election results," Barclay strategists said. Traders also continue to assess the situation with the spread of coronavirus in the EU and its impact on the region's economy. While the European authorities are far from a complete halt of the economy, as was the case in March-April, however, even the measures taken are capable of undermining the fragile recovery. In such conditions, the markets will find it difficult to maintain a positive attitude, and the euro will grow from current levels. Against the background of improving investor sentiment, the EUR / USD pair approached 1.18, however, the prospects for the eurozone remain gloomy, and the euro's fall to $ 1.16 may be only a matter of time. At the end of this week, October data on business activity in the eurozone will be released, and weak statistics will become another argument in favor of easing the ECB's policy this year. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| U.S. election sends USDX below 93.00 Posted: 19 Oct 2020 08:08 AM PDT
The U.S. Presidential election is in two weeks, and this keeps the dollar in a rather tight framework. The gap between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is still decent, although the Democrat's lead has narrowed slightly last week. The main event this week is likely to be the second presidential debate. This gives Trump a chance to make a good leap forward and close the gap. This turn of events is likely to upset the markets as Trump has the opportunity to challenge the election, which is uncertainty and excitement. Meanwhile, Biden's victory in the debate is a kind of balm for the markets. Today there are aggressive sales in the dollar. It should be noted that the USD index continues its downward trend since September 25. It is noteworthy that at the same time, the likelihood of a complete victory for the Democratic candidate began to grow. Markets don't seem to believe Trump will be able to close the gap with Biden after the debate. These expectations may be the main reason for the greenback's decline this week. The nearest target for the dollar index is 93.00 points.
The US calendar this week is not particularly remarkable. Traders will be looking at new home sales, the Fed's BeigeBook, and of course the weekly labor market data. Today's data from the PRC left a mixed impression on the markets. Weak quarterly GDP growth (4.9% versus a projected 5.2% increase) is not quite in line with industrial growth in September, which exceeded expectations (6.9% versus a forecast of 5.8%). Retail sales also jumped 3.3%, while markets expected a more modest increase of 1.8%. Note that the dollar decline today was also influenced by the revived hopes of investors regarding an agreement between Democrats and Republicans on fiscal support measures for the American economy. On Monday, market players are studying the speeches of the heads of two world regulators - the ECB and the Fed. In both speeches, signals for further stimulating the economy are possible. The ECB rate cut will deal a serious blow to the euro positions. However, the euro took full advantage of the dollar's fall across the entire spectrum of the market on Monday. The EUR/USD pair broke through the strong resistance at 1.1755. If it manages to fix itself above the value of 1.1780, it will strengthen the positive dynamics.
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| Gold continues to soar amid weak dollar Posted: 19 Oct 2020 06:04 AM PDT
The price of gold continues to ascend Monday morning. The popularity of metal is growing against the background of the poor state of the greenback, and a new package of financial incentives in the U.S., which still can not be executed in the final document. However, there are still hopes that the financial assistance will be ratified before the presidential elections, which will be held next month. All this increases the interest of investors in the precious metal and makes it highly demanded. Gold's price by morning was 0.67% higher than the previous value, which allowed it to move to the level of $1,911.76 per troy ounce. The most important issue for market participants is still the unresolved financial incentives in the U.S. The change in prices for precious metals largely depends on whether they will be adopted before the November 3 elections. However, those investors who have been closely watching the movement of gold in the market in recent months believe that after the U.S. Presidential elections, the position of the precious metal will be even stronger. Its superiority over the US dollar will reach unprecedented heights. All this will result from adopting a wider fiscal incentive program in the country, which will be a fundamental moment for the new head of state. Most experts are now inclined to believe that the new package of incentives will not be adopted before the election. However, if Joe Biden wins and implements his plans for spending on the country's infrastructure, the consequences for the national currency will be more negative, which means that gold will remain the favorite for a long period. Moreover, the short and medium-term growth prospects for the precious metal are also quite justified. The daily volume of new contracts is increasing by about 31,200 units, which indicates the high popularity of the metal and its reliability. Against this backdrop, gold is rapidly moving towards its next strategic target of $1,920 per troy ounce. Its achievement may happen in the near future. Silver prices also rose by 2.48%. Its current level has stopped at $24.77 per troy ounce. Palladium increased 0.8% which sent it to $2,350.3 per ounce. Platinum is still the leader of the growth which managed to gain 1.51% and move to the level of $873.15 per ounce. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| US elections threaten many assets Posted: 19 Oct 2020 05:37 AM PDT
Analysts at the Canadian bank TD Securities believe that the US presidential election is the main fear of this autumn. In their opinion, after the formation of the new US government, a prolonged price rally should begin in the gold market. Today, there is pre-election chaos in the country where two parties are fighting for the leadership and for votes. However, after the elections, the situation will calm down, and the price of gold may begin to rise, reaching $2,100 per ounce. Silver prices, in turn, are doing well. This always happens when conditions are favorable for gold. However, silver looks undervalued, analysts say. In the future, the production of electric vehicles and the refuse of hydrocarbons will allow silver to rise as it is used in all electronic circuits. Given the limited supply of precious metals on the market, there should be pressure on the existing supply, which in turn could allow silver to return to $30 per ounce in the next 2021. Experts believe that by the end of 2020 the price of gold will depend mainly on investor sentiments. Now the main topic for discussion is the presidential election in the United States and the coronavirus pandemic. Many central banks are confident that the gold market will continue to rise. But who knows. In the middle of this year, gold has reached historic highs. Due to the global quarantine, many currencies have been in danger, and investors have resorted to gold. September showed a period of price correction, which is generally believed to be gradually declining, allowing the precious metals market to recover. However, the second wave of COVID-19 and the rise in the number of new infected people made investors interested in gold again. Gold is currently trading at $1,900 per ounce. Experts are closely watching new information about COVID-19 and the US elections to be held on November 3. The election results are included in the gold forecasts. ANZ Bank analysts suggest that in 2021 the price of gold will rise to $2,300 per ounce. Despite the critical situation around the world caused by COVID-19, the prospects for gold are quite positive. Especially the fact of postponing the financial aid package in the US has had a positive effect on gold prices. Also, central banks maintain a soft monetary policy, which will support gold. Nevertheless, uncertainty is putting pressure on demand for gold. Therefore, despite the price rise of the precious metals, investments in gold are now associated with a number of risks. However, the experts were divided. Some of them expect a decline in the price of gold in the near future. Experts at J.P. Morgan say gold will rise by 5% if Joe Biden becomes the US President. If not, then gold will depreciate by 5%. Analysts of the Swiss bank Credit Suisse, on the contrary, claim that the sideways movement of the precious metal price will continue. We can talk about the growth of gold after overcoming the level of $1,993 per ounce. But this may happen only next year. The development of a vaccine against coronavirus in the United States or in Europe can turn prices in the opposite direction. As a result, investors will start selling precious metals, deceived by the illusion of a quick exit from the economic crisis. The second reason for the fall in prices can naturally be the results of the presidential election in the United States. It is still difficult to predict exactly the price dynamics, since the price of gold has already increased by 22% since the beginning of the year, while silver has doubled in price. The gold market is facing difficult times. But if it is possible to overcome the mark of $2,000, then growth is quite possible as well. Other experts are pessimistic. In the remaining months of this year, there will be another economic downturn amid the second wave of coronavirus pandemic, which will lead to a depreciation of commodity assets, including gold. For example, during the crisis in mortgage lending in the United States, gold fell by 30% in the shortest possible time. Today, gold has the highest liquidity among all other assets. Thanks to this precious metal, investors not only kept their savings, but also increased them. According to experts from the World Gold Council, the demand for precious metals among investors will be the main factor determining the dynamics of the physical gold price. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Pound slightly rises debunking Johnson's threat of a futile Brexit Posted: 19 Oct 2020 05:12 AM PDT It would seem that the statement that Britain is preparing to leave the EU without a deal and will focus on relations with the European Union on the Australian model, should have dropped the GBP/USD quotes. The negative impact of the pandemic on the economy of the United Kingdom in this scenario will increase, which increases the likelihood of a double recession and negatively affects the national currency. The pound, on the contrary, after a slight fall, is trying to return above the psychologically important level of 1.3 only because the market does not believe a single word of Boris Johnson. Investors believe that by saying that Michel Barnier should not come to London without a new plan, the British Prime Minister decided to encore the story of a year ago. Then he managed to get the transition period extended on a falling flag through the use of threat tactics, which eventually bore fruit, and the Cabinet received a laurel wreath for its patience. Will Brussels want to make concessions? He is well aware that Boris Johnson is bluffing, but in such a situation, one awkward move – and a successful Brexit can be put an end to. The sterling's reaction hardly surprised anyone. The GBP / USD sellers were waiting for the message about the termination of negotiations, but they did not wait for it. Anyway, the couple has been living for four years in an environment where the headlines about Brexit swing it from side to side. One could get used to it and start filtering the incoming information. For example, perceive the loud statements of Boris Johnson as a theatrical performance. Indeed, the options market is signaling that sharp movements in sterling are unlikely in the next three months. Investors believe that at least some deal will be concluded. Dynamics of the probability of sharp movements in sterling:
Brexit distracts attention from other important events: the pandemic and the US presidential election. In the States, everyone practically believed that Joe Biden would celebrate the victory, but they doubt that the Republicans will hand over the Senate to the Democrats. If the political uncertainty continues after the November 3 elections, the US dollar will continue to be in demand. The rise in the number of COVID-19 cases in the UK is forcing the introduction of repeated restrictions, which heightens the risks of a double recession. At the same time, statistics on inflation, retail sales, and business activity should show the state of the economy of the UK and whether the Bank of England should introduce negative interest rates. Recently, Andrew Bailey has tried to muffle the conversation, but the fact that the central bank has conducted a survey on whether companies are ready for borrowing costs below zero suggests that such a possibility cannot be ruled out. Technically, the GBP / USD bulls do not leave hopes of storming the resistance at 1.302 and 1.309 and re-activating the Shark pattern with a target of 88.6%. The target is located near 1.34. In my opinion, it makes sense to use the same tactics - to buy the pound in case of a confident breakout of the resistance. GBP / USD daily chart:
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| Crypto market: How not to lose millions of dollars on cryptocurrency Posted: 19 Oct 2020 05:07 AM PDT
When trading cryptocurrencies, a huge number of traders are in the red. In other words, it is not uncommon to lose large amounts in the digital currency industry. But it doesn't make it any easier. A couple of weeks ago, on October 9, traders lost more than $140 million in 24 hours when trying to make money trading bitcoin futures. This colossal amount slipped like sand through our fingers when the cryptocurrency became rapidly more expensive from $10,500 to $11,100. The contracts of those who played short were forcibly closed by the exchanges. It is quite a familiar rule: exchanges eliminate short positions of clients and keep the funds pledged by clients for themselves. They use this mechanism to avoid losing money. As they say, it's just business, nothing personal. Something similar happened on October 13, when the price of bitcoin steadily rose and eventually reached an all-time high of $11,700. The growth of quotes again forced the exchanges to liquidate short positions of traders. In just 12 hours, market players lost as much as $75 million. However, the loss of funds is not always directly related to trading. It is obvious that everyone wants to earn a lot of money quickly. But the laws of life are such that any pursuit of fast money is quite capable of luring a person into a trap. The end of September of this year is another confirmation of this. This period was truly a mourning period for those users who were able to lose $15 million in just one night. You ask how? Very simple. It is enough to find a smart contract in the Ethereum network and mistake it for an innovative development or a new project that is not one. Dreamers saw this smart contract of the famous developer Andre Cronje on the web, assumed that this project promises to be extremely successful, and invested a lot of money in it before the release. However, this "grandiose" project was just a test version. Cronje was still only at the testing stage and did not think about launching. And it would be fine if the reason for such an oversight was only the curiosity of users. Unfortunately, on the same night, a hacker also became interested in Cronje's smart contract. Most likely, he was interested in the amount that he found at this address – as much as $15 million belonging to naive and rich users. Given the vulnerability of the project, the hacker easily took these funds, depriving investors of hopes for an unprecedented profit. No matter how sad it may be, but dishonest users of the Network are quite often found by people who sincerely trust everything in an attempt to make good money. For example, a Russian pensioner living in Voronezh suffered from fraud, losing more than 1 million rubles. a Woman found an ad on the Internet about profitable investments and tried to purchase digital assets. Then a stranger contacted her and advised her to download a remote access app on her smartphone. The woman did so and later transferred her funds to the user account created there. The fraudster stopped communicating after the transfer of funds, or simply "merged". Of course, it was impossible to return the funds. It seems to be a well-developed scenario, an obvious scheme of fraudulent manipulation, but there are still sincere and trusting people who are brought by this scheme. Actually, they are counted on by various cheaters. Although it is not necessary to expect insight and suspicion from ordinary people, when deceived by scammers and specialized users, for example, the DeFi sphere, are everywhere. This fall, a token sale (sale of tokens at ICO) from the Polkastarter (POLS) project was implemented on the Uniswap exchange. Everyone could add cryptocurrency to the platform presented. It is thanks to this nuance that the scammers were able to extract other people's money, having sold three fake POLS tokens by the time of the token sale on Uniswap. Practicing cryptocurrency trading, but obviously, still inexperienced users invested more than $30,000 in one of these tokens. Needless to say, after the transfer of funds, this fake asset simply depreciated. One of the latest failures was the sad story of a user under the pseudonym John Doe, who was able to lose more than $140,000 in cryptocurrency in a day. And here again, the fraudulent sphere on the DeFi service appeared. John Doe followed the usual algorithm on this service, granting permission to withdraw funds from a personal wallet. If the user first turns to DeFi, then this kind of step is necessary according to the terms of the service itself. But John Doe, apparently, was simply unlucky: he connected to a fraudulent platform and, apparently, without suspecting a trick, gave the go-ahead not only to withdraw funds from a personal local wallet but also to access it at any time convenient for the swindler. Thus, while clearly not the most experienced and hardened user in such matters, the user was sleeping peacefully, when 36,000 UNI tokens, or, more simply, $140,000 were debited from his personal account. However, you can lose digital assets not only through the fault of a fraudster. It is enough to make a mistake in one letter or number of the address, and all the invested funds are lost, leaving no hope of profit. Here it is important not to make a mistake when copying the address. Checking the address from which funds will be transferred, as well as the address where they will arrive, is a prerequisite for a client who values their money. Laziness and haste can play a cruel joke, emptying the user account. Although checking the first two and last two characters of the address is a quick method, it is risky, since there is a high risk of becoming a victim of the virus. Existing malware can automatically change the address copied to the clipboard and redirect funds to the wallets of the same scammers. In this case, it is useful to be careful, painstaking, and antivirus software with a fresh, updated database. It is also extremely important that the coins and wallet where the funds should be received belong to a certain cryptocurrency. If a user mistakenly starts transferring Ethereum to a Bitcoin address, they will simply lose all the coins irrevocably. By the way, recently, many exchanges, thanks to the built-in function, do not allow such mistakes: when transferring to the wrong address, a warning will appear about this. In order not to get caught on a phishing site and not become a victim, like John Doe, carefully study the site on which you are going to post your data or transfer your funds to the wallet indicated there. Sometimes it is very difficult to distinguish a fake site from a real one, but this does not mean that it is impossible. Price fluctuations must also be taken into account when sending cryptocurrency, otherwise, the loss of part of the capital will be an unpleasant surprise. Fortunately, you can avoid this if you transfer your funds in stablecoins, for example, in USDT, BUSD, USDC, etc. The price of these units is pegged to the dollar, so a sudden drop by a significant 15-20% is not typical for it. Finally, the most practical advice: it is better to make your first transfer for a small amount. This strategy is obvious if the user is dealing with an unfamiliar service. Following this advice, the client will not lose funds if it turns out that the platform is fraudulent or the wallet does not work on it for some reason. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 Oct 2020 04:50 AM PDT Further Development\
Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is still consolidation at the price of $11,500 but that short-term uptrend is active. Bollinger bands are rising and expanding, which is good sign for further rise... Key Levels: Resistance: $11,610, $12,000 Support level: $11,200 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 19 Oct 2020 04:43 AM PDT Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the matterFor some context, there is a OPEC+ JMMC meeting taking place today so the headline pertains to that. I wouldn't doubt that they would leave the door open to extend cuts into next year, but any firm decision will only be made at next month's meeting.
Further Development
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that our first target at the price of $1,913 from my Friday's analysis has been reached. I see potential for the test of the second upside target at the price of $1,930 due to strong upside momentum and fresh money flow to the upside. My advice is to watch for the pullbacks on the intraday frames and look for long positions with the target at $1,931 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Cocoa and Silver today and on the bottom VIX and Orange Juice. EUR is holding well on the relative strength list, which is another confirmation for the upside momentum. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,913 and $1,930 Support level: $1,900 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Oil decreases in price due to news from China Posted: 19 Oct 2020 04:34 AM PDT On Monday, China published a report on its GDP, which led to a collapse in oil prices.
Brent futures for December fell by 0.28% to $ 42.81 a barrel, while WTI futures decreased by 0.27% and reached $ 41.01 a barrel. Meanwhile, WTI futures for November dropped by 0.46% and stood at $ 40.69 per barrel. The main reason for these changes was the weaker-than-expected report from China, which is one of the major players in the world raw materials market. The latest data said the country's third quarter GDP grew by only 4.9% y/y, while economists had expected it to be 5.2%. In addition to that, refineries in China have reduced the rate of processing of raw materials this September, and also reduced the import of industrial metals. This only strengthens the idea that the coronavirus really took a toll on the country, because if we can recall in the first quarter of 2020, China's GDP decreased by 6.8% and for the first time since 1992, went to negative territory. In the second quarter though, after stabilizing the situation, the country's GDP increased by 3.2%, but due to the unpredictability of the impact of the pandemic, the Chinese government hesitated to set targets for growth this year. Usually, those are mentioned in the president's annual report, but it was not included this 2020. Anyhow, a rather positive news is observed in the field of industrial production, as over the three quarters of this year, it grew by 1.2% compared to the same period in 2019. The latest report says industrial production in China increased by 5.8% this third quarter, while in the second it rose by 4.4% after falling by 8.4% in the first. Meanwhile, retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 7.2% for the first three quarters and amounted to 27.33 trillion yuan, but separately, it increased by 0.9% this third quarter and showed growth for the first time this year. At the same time, the volume of online retail sales for the three quarters increased by 9.7% compared to the same period in 2019, reaching 8 trillion yuan. Obviously, a news like this could not but affect the mood of investors and the dynamics of the commodity market. Most likely, prices will continue to decline, but traders still have high hopes due to the scheduled meeting of OPEC today. At it, the alliance plans to discuss the situation on the oil market, particularly the slowing demand amid the start of another pandemic wave. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD: plan for the American session on October 19 (analysis of morning deals) Posted: 19 Oct 2020 04:33 AM PDT To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: In the first half of the day, I paid attention to buying the pound above the resistance of 1.2945. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry points to the market. We see how the breakout of 1.2945 led to the formation of a good upward wave of the pound, however, this transaction passed by, as the reverse test of the level of 1.2945 from top to bottom did not take place. But if you didn't have time to buy the pound, you could always sell it on a false breakout from the resistance level of 1.3007. We see how the bulls climb above 1.3007 for a while, but then the pair returns to this level, and the next attempt to break 1.3007 turns out to be unsuccessful, which forms a signal for the passage of the pound, which brings more than 40 points of profit on the first movement.
The second half of the day is also poor in fundamental statistics, thus, the emphasis will be placed on the technical component. Bulls now need a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3007, which opens a direct road to the area of the local maximum of 1.3080, where I recommend fixing the profits. However, a more correct entry point for long positions on the pound will be from the support of 1.2945, above which it was possible to break through today in the first half of the day. You can buy from this level immediately for a rebound based on a correction of 20-30 points within the day. If there is no bull activity at the level of 1.2945, I recommend that you postpone long positions until the low of 1.2865 is updated. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: In the second half of the day, sellers need to protect the resistance of 1.3007, which has already been tested and from which a good sell signal for the pound was formed. As long as trading is conducted below this range, the probability of GBP/USD returning to the support area of 1.2945 will remain quite high. Another false breakout formation at this level forms an additional entry point for short positions. An equally important task for the bears will be to return the pound to the support of 1.2945, which will increase pressure on the pair and lead to an update of the minimum of 1.2865. If the growth of GBP/USD continues above 1.3007, it is best not to rush with sales, but wait for the test of the maximum of 1.3080 and sell the pound from there immediately on the rebound in the calculation of 20-30 points of correction at the first touch.
Let me remind you that in the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for October 13, there was a reduction in both long and short non-commercial positions. Long non-commercial positions declined from a level of 40,698 up to the level of 36,195. At the same time, short non-commercial positions fell more significantly from the level of 51,996 to the level of 45,997. As a result, the negative value of the non-commercial net position slightly increased to -9,802, against -11,298 a week earlier, which indicates that sellers of the British pound remain in control and have a minimal advantage in the current situation. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates an active attempt by the bulls to take control of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands If the pair declines, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.2945, from which you can buy the pound immediately for a rebound. Description of indicators
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| EUR/USD: plan for the American session on October 19 (analysis of morning deals) Posted: 19 Oct 2020 04:32 AM PDT To open long positions on EURUSD, you need: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to purchases from the level of 1.1722. On the 5-minute chart, the bulls are taking this range, however, it was not possible to wait for the formation of a more convenient entry point for long positions on the top-down test of the 1.1722 level. As a result, this deal was missed, although it was profitable. We can also see that although the pair stopped at the 1.1756 level, there was no active downward movement from it, which negates the sell signal, at least until a new suitable formation is formed.
Due to the growth of the euro, the nearest support and resistance levels had to be revised. At the moment, the task of the bulls is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1770, which will open a direct road to the next weekly maximum in the area of 1.1797, where I recommend fixing the profits. It is unlikely to expect a more active growth of EUR/USD to the area of the maximum of 1.1824, without support from fundamental statistics. A more correct signal to buy EUR/USD will be a decline and the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1739. You can open long positions immediately for a rebound from the minimum of 1.1704, where the new lower border of the ascending price channel also passes. However, in the first test, you should not expect more than 15-20 points of rebound. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to: Sellers will try to protect the resistance of 1.1770, which emerged at the end of trading in the first half of the day. However, do not rush to sell euros. It is best to wait for the formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.1770, which will lead to the formation of a larger downward wave in the support area of 1.1739. An equally important task for the bears to return the initiative to their own hands will be to break through this range, fixing under which will form a new sell signal for EUR/USD with the main goal of testing the minimum in the area of 1.1704, from which all the bullish movement was formed today. If the bulls turn out to be stronger in the second half of the day, it is best to postpone sales until the high of 1.1797 is updated, based on a correction from it of 15-20 points within the day.
Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for October 13 recorded a reduction in long positions and an increase in short ones, which led to an even greater decrease in the delta. But despite this, buyers of risky assets believe in the continuation of the bull market, but prefer to proceed cautiously, as there is no good news on the Eurozone yet. So, long non-commercial positions declined from a level of 369,231 to 228,295, while short non-commercial positions increased from 57,061 to 59,658. The total non-commercial net position fell to 168,637, compared to 174,308 a week earlier, which indicates a wait-and-see attitude of new players. However, bullish sentiment for the euro in the medium term remains quite high. The stronger the euro declines against the US dollar at the end of this year, the more attractive it will be for new investors. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an active attempt by euro buyers to take over the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands If the pair declines, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.1725, from which today you can buy euros immediately for a rebound. Description of indicators
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2020 04:29 AM PDT EU vice president of interinstitutional relations, Maros Sefcovic, remarks
Some token remarks by Sefcovic, as the EU mainly wants to communicate that they are ready to head back to the negotiating table this week. But without a will to compromise on both sides, it is tough to see how much progress there will be at the end of the day. Further Development
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that our first target at the price of 1,1770 from my Friday's analysis has been reached. I see potential for the test of the second upside target at the price of 1,1825 due to strong upside momentum and fresh money flow to the upside. My advice is to watch for the pullbacks on the intraday frames and look for long positions. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Cocoa and Silver today and on the bottom VIX and Orange Juice. EUR is holding well on the relative strength list and it is one of the strongest currencies. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,1770, 1,1825 Support level: 1,1700 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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