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| For most of bitcoin's existence, there hasn't been much of a price relationship to gold, as its coefficient of correlation is a fairly weak 0.5 over that period. However, during both bitcoin's speculative collapse in 2018 and its rebound in 2019, the cryptocurrency almost served as a leading indicator for gold's price movements, predating them by as much as four months. | | | |
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| In each instance of alignment, the rationale was relatively clear, as both had a corresponding geopolitical event. First, there was the bitcoin bubble pop and initiation of the US-China trade war from December 2017 to February 2018. Then, the trade war escalation and market selloff in late 2018. If we apply that same logic to 2020, we should see a similar alignment on both the COVID-driven market selloff, and the speculative rebound. | | | | Investing Breakout | | | |
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