Forex analysis review |
- AUD / USD Forecast for November 3, 2020
- USD/JPY Forecast for November 3, 2020
- Forecast for GBP/USD on November 3, 2020
- Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on November 3. COT report. Bears need to overcome 1.2855-1.2874 to keep falling
- Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on November 3. COT report. Will there be a storm in the market due to US elections,
- Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 3. Media: Michel Barnier and David Frost managed to reach a compromise on the "fish
- Overview of the EUR/USD pair. November 3. "Plywood elections". More than 90 million Americans have already voted. Skirmishes
- The Federal Reserve may announce measures now rather than December
- Trading idea for gold
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on November 3? Getting ready for Tuesday session
- November 2, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.
- November 2, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- November 2, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- Trump or Biden: whose victory the euro needs
- Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of EURUSD
- Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of Gold
- USDJPY inside trading range forming a wedge pattern
- EURUSD and GBPUSD: How will the US dollar behave after the US election?
- BTC analysis for November 02,.2020 - Watch for potential downside breakout towards $12.140
- Analysis of Gold for November 02,.2020 - Potential for another downside cycle and test of $1.866
- Oil collapses again
- EUR/USD: What are the options USD have?
- EUR/USD analysis for November 02 2020 - Downside target at the price of 1.1620 reached but potential for next downside target
- GBP/USD: trading plan on November 2 (analysis of morning deals). Bulls retain support of 1.2855 for fifth time and ready
- US stock indices closed with a tremendous fall last week, while the Asia-Pacific markets have been growing since Monday morning
| AUD / USD Forecast for November 3, 2020 Posted: 02 Nov 2020 07:02 PM PST AUD / USD In the last two days, the Australian Dollar the range of fluctuations increased against the background of mixed dynamics in the commodity markets and the upcoming elections in the US but in general the price does not move above the level of 0.7058. It is probably choosing it as a platform for working out the nested line of the price channel in the area of 0.6937. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative trend zone. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line has returned to the border with the growth territory. From here, a downward turn is possible and the price may fall further. The first goal is 0.6970 and overcoming it will create a condition for a breakthrough to 0.6937. Fixing the price below this level opens up the prospect of further decline.  |
| USD/JPY Forecast for November 3, 2020 Posted: 02 Nov 2020 07:02 PM PST USD/JPY The yen tried to overcome the price channel line yesterday at 104.83 with the help of a brisk growth of the stock market, but this first attempt failed. However, the Marlin oscillator left its own consolidation on the daily scale of the chart up. Its entry into the zone of positive values with the price fixed above 104.83 may extend the pair's growth towards the Kruzenshtern line to the area of 105.42. But such a scenario is highly questionable, since the stock market is most likely to fall after the first data from the US election. As a result, we expect the price to go below the first target level of 104.20 and decline to 103.73 (the top of may 2013). Based on the four-hour scale chart, the price is fixed above the balance and Kruzenshtern indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone but when compared with the situation on the daily chart, it may very well turn out that this increase will be false. This will be confirmed by a decrease in the price under the Kruzenshtern line (104.50), and until then it is recommended not to trade. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for GBP/USD on November 3, 2020 Posted: 02 Nov 2020 07:01 PM PST GBP/USD The British pound reached the nearest target level of 1.2860 on Monday, afterwards it rebounded upward from it and entered the range on October 30. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator shows the intention to reverse from the border of the bears territory on the daily chart. If good Brexit data provides help to this, the pound will rise regardless of the outcome of the US elections. The first growth target is 1.3082. If we do not receive good news on Brexit, we are waiting for the pound at the target level of 1.2810, and for the currency to settle below it at the 1.2674 level. The Marlin oscillator has come close to the border of the growth area on the four-hour chart, but crossing the border will not become a condition for further price growth, but first the price should settle above the MACD line in the 1.2985 area. We are waiting for the development of events, the arrival of important political news. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2020 05:26 PM PST GBP/USD 1H The GBP/USD pair reached the support area of 1.2854-1.2873 on Monday, November 2 and failed to overcome it on the first attempt. In general, trading was rather calm on the first trading day of the week. The rebound was followed by a systematic increase in quotes, all within the descending channel. Thus, the trend for the pound/dollar pair remains downward at this time, and the bears continue to hold the initiative in their hands. As for the bulls, they now need to leave the channel through its upper border, as well as overcome the important Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. An upward movement will mean a strengthening of the British currency, which will be possible if positive information comes from London on the progress of negotiations on the deal. GBP/USD 15M Both linear regression channels turned to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, which indicates a continuation of the downward movement on the hourly chart. However, the pair was not allowed to go down the 1.2854-1.2873 area, so the correction may continue for some time. COT report The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed that non-commercial traders were quite active in the period from October 20-26. However, their sentiment changed again, as can be seen from the green line of the first indicator in the chart. The mood of the "non-commercial" group of traders became more bullish for three consecutive weeks, but the net position decreased by 5,000 contracts over the last reporting week, so we can conclude that professional traders are again inclined to sell off the pound. However, if you look at the COT reports over the past few weeks or look at the first indicator, it becomes clear that commercial and non-commercial traders do not have a clear trading strategy right now. Perhaps this is due to an extremely unstable and complex fundamental background. The fact remains. The pound lost 90 points in recent trading days, and we believe that it will continue to fall. However, in the near future, we might receive important information about the progress of negotiations on the UK-EU trade deal, and the results of the vote for the US president will also become known. This information can change the mindset of professional traders. You need to be prepared for this. Fundamental background for GBP/USD remained unchanged on Monday. There is still no VERIFIED information on the progress of negotiations between the groups of Michel Barnier and David Frost. The US presidential elections will continue today, and no clear information about that yet. The UK published an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which, like European indices, turned out to be higher than forecasts and the value of September. However, the pound failed to extract special dividends from this. Markets are fully focused on more important fundamental topics, so they do not pay any attention to secondary macroeconomic publications. The US also released manufacturing PMIs, which also turned out to be higher than expected. The ISM index was 59.3 and the Markit index was 53.4. There are no major publications or other events scheduled in America and Britain other than the US presidential election on Tuesday. Thus, all the attention is paid to the American media, which will keep us informed of the voting progress. We have two trading ideas for November 3: 1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair failed to settle above the Kijun-Sen line. Thus, the initiative remains in the hands of the bears, and long positions, accordingly, are irrelevant. You can consider long deals again if the price settles above the Senkou Span B (1.3018) and Kijun-sen (1.2963) lines while aiming for the resistance area of 1.3160 - 1.3184. Take Profit in this case will be up to 110 points. 2) Sellers continue to pull down the pair, but yesterday they could not overcome the support area of 1.2855-1.2874. Therefore, you can consider new sell positions while aiming for 1.2855-1.2874 in case the price rebounds from the Kijun-sen line (1.2963). If this area is overcome, you are also advised to trade down while aiming for the support level of 1.2768. Take Profit in the first case will be up to 80 points, in the second - up to 70. Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD Explanations for illustrations: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2020 05:24 PM PST EUR/USD 1H The euro/dollar pair tried to continue moving down on the hourly timeframe on Monday, November 2, but it came across the support area of 1.1612-1.1624, from which the quotes had already rebounded off. This was the notorious exit from the horizontal channel, afterwards the price returned to it very quickly. Thus, a rebound from this area and this time can provoke an upward movement. We also built a new downward trend line, which has four pivot points at once and is on the verge of breaking. Therefore, the price rebound from 1.1612-1.1624, coupled with breaking the trend line, may indicate a new round of upward movement for the pair. Unfortunately, today a lot will depend on the fundamental background, or rather, on the course of the US elections. Therefore, we can expect increased volatility during the day. EUR/USD 15M Both linear regression channels are still directed to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, which speaks volumes about the current trend on the hourly chart and indicates that there are no signs of starting a tangible upward correction. COT report The EUR/USD pair rose quite a bit during the last reporting week (October 20-26). Therefore, we can conclude that professional market participants did not make any extremely large purchases and sales of the European currency. However, the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that non-commercial traders were actively closing Buy-contracts (longs) during the reporting week. In total, 12,000 of them were closed. But professional traders were in no hurry to get rid of Sell-contracts (shorts), having closed only 1,000. Thus, the net position of this group of traders decreased by 11,000 contracts at once. It is possible that the main closing of the Buy-contracts took place at the end of the reporting week, because in the following days a more tangible drop in euro's quotes began. Within its framework, the euro/dollar pair lost about 160 points. We remind you that if the net position decreases, it means that the traders' sentiment becomes more bearish. Thus, so far, our forecast is coming true. In the analysis of previous COT reports, we said that the high around the 1.2000 level could remain as the peak for the entire upward trend. The first indicator and its green line clearly show that non-commercial traders have been cutting back on long deals on the euro for two months now. And non-commercial traders are the most important group of large traders in the foreign exchange market. It is believed that it is the one responsible for driving the market. The indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sectors for October were published in European countries and the European Union as a whole. It turned out that despite the second wave of the pandemic that had already begun by that time, all business activity indices exceeded their forecasted and previous values. However, this did not come as some kind of surprise, since we have already said that with the new lockdown, the service sector will suffer in the first place. Therefore, to assess the impact of the pandemic and the new lockdown on the economy, we are waiting for data from the service sector. No important publication of macroeconomic reports scheduled in America and the European Union on Tuesday. However, traders would hardly have paid attention to them anyway. Presidential elections will be held in the United States today, and although the results should be expected a little later, nevertheless, many fear that the voting procedure in many cities will be accompanied by riots and clashes between supporters of Biden and Trump. Events like this can trigger a reaction in the foreign exchange market. And, most likely, unfavorable for the US dollar. We have two trading ideas for November 3: 1) The EUR/USD pair continues to move down. And so buyers are advised to wait for more favorable conditions to open long positions than now. For example, if the price settles above the 1.1691-1.1698 area. In this case, you can open small longs with the targets of the Kijun-sen line (1.1732) and the Senkou Span B line (1.1784). Take Profit in this case can be up to 70 points. 2) Bears are actively trading, but gradually, pulling down the pair. Therefore, sellers are advised to continue to trade down while aiming for support levels of 1.1571 and 1.1496, if the price settles below the 1.1612-1.1624 area. Take Profit in this case can be up to 90 points. When opening any position today, remember that volatility can be very high during the day due to the US elections. Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD Explanations for illustrations: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2020 04:24 PM PST 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward. CCI: -98.6428 The British pound sterling paired with the US currency on the first trading day of the week also traded with a slight decrease, but with fairly low volatility. Traders are already fully focused on the upcoming US elections, and do not want to take unnecessary risks. Thus, by and large, nothing new can be said now. In America, it all comes down to today's election, and in the UK, it all comes down to Brexit and negotiations on a trade deal between London and Brussels, and on which there is still no new information. Thus, traders still have nothing to pay attention to and nothing to react to. Just rumors, speculation, and expectations. Meanwhile, a new batch of rumors did arrive from London. This time, the British media say that Michel Barnier and David Frost managed to reach a compromise on the most important issue – the issue of fishing. The British media write that "the deal is almost reached", although it remains unclear why this particular wording is present, and how the remaining controversial issues are resolved. However, the publications also report that the new agreements on British waters will not appeal to those who voted for the country's exit from the EU. Boris Johnson has previously promised that the UK will regain full control of British waters, but things are moving towards the fact that European fishermen will have access to British waters next year. According to media reports, Britain insists on certain fish quotas, which must be reviewed annually, while the European Union insists on more specific and precise guarantees of access to British waters. However, if all the information provided is true, then this is a breakthrough in the negotiations and a deal can be concluded in the near future. If so, this is great news for the UK economy and the British pound. Of course, some damage to the economy will still be caused by the country's withdrawal from the EU, this cannot be avoided, but now it will be largely mitigated due to the existence of a trade agreement. Meanwhile, Brexit leader Nigel Farage, one of the ideologues of all Brexit, has renamed his party to "Reform UK" and believes that the British government has cornered itself with a new lockdown and is going to fight against the "coronavirus". Farage believes that quarantine and isolation are necessary only for the most vulnerable categories of citizens, and not for the whole country. "The government has buried itself in a hole with the coronavirus and, instead of admitting mistakes, continues to dig further," Farage believes. "A new lockdown will lead to the loss of more lives than could have been saved, as patients without COVID-19, but with various other diseases, will again have to postpone or cancel a treatment. Suicide cases will increase. Businesses and jobs are dying." According to the leader of the "Brexit" party, one must learn to live with the virus, and not constantly hide from it in fear. At the same time, US President Donald Trump criticized at one of his campaign rallies the measures taken by the European authorities to contain the "coronavirus". "Europe introduced draconian restrictions, and the number of cases and deaths still increased. Think about it. Now they're doing it again. Why the hell are they doing this? I thought about going and explaining to them, but they closed parts of Europe again," Trump said. Thus, the American President continues to stand by his initial opinion about the "coronavirus". According to the US President, this virus is not as terrible as it seems, and it is unacceptable to stop the economy of an entire country because of it. Thus, if one of the readers was going to move to the United States or Europe, there is still an opportunity to change their decision, since the attitude to healthcare in these locations is radically opposite. Trump continues to press that a vaccine will soon be invented and no "lockdown" will be required anymore. However, earlier Trump promised a vaccine by the end of October. Doctors continue to insist that creating a vaccine is a very long process, and even if it is invented in the near future, mass vaccination will not begin until mid-2021. At the moment, more than 200 thousand people have already died in the States from COVID. By next summer, another grim forecast by Dr. Anthony Fauci may come true – 400,000 deaths. From a technical point of view, the downward trend remains and Monday trading was rather sluggish. Buyers of the British currency are waiting for positive and official information on Brexit, buyers of the US dollar are waiting for the elections and their results. Thus, so far the pound/dollar pair is trading very calmly, but today everything may change. Volatility in the past seven days has been fairly average, and the prospects for a downward movement, although they look more attractive, may be spoiled by the fundamental background. In general, in the coming days, a lot will depend on the fundamental background and on the nature of the news that will come from Britain and the United States. At the same time, macroeconomic statistics will continue to be ignored by market participants.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 109 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Tuesday, November 3, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2789 and 1.3009. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top signals a possible round of corrective movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.2878 S2 – 1.2817 S3 – 1.2756 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.2939 R2 – 1.3000 R3 – 1.3062 Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD pair resumed its downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to keep open short positions with targets of 1.2817 and 1.2789 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with targets of 1.3062 and 1.3123 if the price is fixed back above the moving average line. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2020 04:24 PM PST 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward. CCI: -105.2729 During the first trading day of the new week, the EUR/USD pair was trading in the rhythm of the last days, continuing its downward movement. And at a certain point, it fell to the lows of September 25, when everyone also thought that a new downward trend had begun to form, after which the price turned up and returned to the side channel, where it spent another month. Thus, a rebound from the support area of 1.1612-1.1620 is not excluded. To be honest, the downward movement of the last few days looks even a little strange, since it indicates the strengthening of the US currency. And why would the US currency show growth in the run-up to the presidential election, if before that, three months ago, the pair was trading in a side channel? Of course, the current fall of the pair can not be called strong. This may be a "duty" drop in quotes. Or maybe it has nothing to do with the US election at all. We remind you that the second "wave" of the "coronavirus" is currently raging in Europe, which began relatively recently. "Regarding" the American "wave", which can not be called the "second" one, since the first one did not end. However, France, Germany, and the UK have already imposed "strict" quarantines, other countries will either do so soon or have already taken measures approaching "strict". Anyway, if the epidemiological situation in Europe was relatively calm for several months before the second "wave", then in the last month it is frightening. And, perhaps, the European currency reacted to this factor. After all, the "coronavirus" itself is a medical issue. But "lockdowns" and restrictions imposed by governments are an economic issue. It is the economy that suffers primarily from such measures. The service sector immediately begins to decline, while the industrial sector remains more or less afloat. Thus, the European economy will experience new problems at the end of 2020. As for almost the most important event of the end of 2020 - the US presidential election - everything is going on as usual, very calmly. The election has already been going on for several weeks since there is such a thing as "early elections" in the States. More than 90 million US residents have already voted, which is equal to 67% of the total turnout in 2016. Most of them are sent by mail. According to media reports, Joe Biden is in the lead, which, in principle, is not surprising, since it was the Democrat who pushed the idea of early voting or voting by mail to avoid queues and mass gatherings on election day. Thus, there was no doubt that the majority of those who voted in recent weeks chose a Democrat. Donald Trump is hoping directly for election day. Also, Trump is counting on winning the election and is even preparing for a certain reshuffle in the state apparatus. Strange as it may seem, the changes may affect first of all those who disagree with the President's opinion on the pandemic. It seems that Anthony Fauci will be the first to be fired, although he has nothing to do with the White House directly. Trump also managed to declare that he is going to declare himself the new President of the United States ahead of schedule, before the full vote count, "if it turns out that he will go ahead of Biden". Recent opinion polls conducted just a couple of days before the election again showed Biden's advantage over Trump by about 8-10%. However, many experts say that despite Biden's 10% lead over Trump, the current President has a good chance of gaining 270 "electoral votes", which is enough to win. This is because it is difficult to predict results in "contested" states, and in 2016, many also predicted Trump's defeat. Well, in many US cities (especially large ones), quite strange preparations for election day are in full swing. Namely, many banks, companies, restaurants, and hotels board up their facades with plywood sheets, fearing mass riots, and pogroms. Many managers of institutions that have resorted to such drastic measures, reported that during mass rallies and protests related to the death of George Floyd, they have already faced pogroms and vandalism. So this time it's better to be safe. A survey by the well-known YouGov company supports such concerns, which showed that about 56% of Americans expect mass riots and violent protests on November 3. Authorities in some states and cities are also preparing for mass clashes between Trump and Biden supporters. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot said he was "preparing for the worst because of events this spring and summer". In such conditions, the euro/dollar pair is trading very calmly. At least, its volatility is not out of the average values. So far, the downward trend remains, but no one can predict what will happen tomorrow and until the end of the week. We remind you that the election itself is not something extremely important for traders and investors. What matters is what US policy will be on many vital issues over the next four years. We have already said that under democratic presidents, the US currency usually falls, while under Republicans it rises. Thus, the difference in external and internal policies is of major importance. Also, we should not forget about possible judicial confrontations between Trump and Biden, which may drag on for many weeks, as well as the long counting of votes of those who voted by mail. In general, we can hardly hope that on November 4 we will learn the name of the new President of America. Most likely, this process will take several days or even a week. All this time, market participants will continue to be in limbo. We also warn traders that tomorrow there may be significant exchange rate fluctuations, as it was on election day in 2016, for example. Thus, trading the pair now needs to be extremely careful.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of November 3 is 67 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1560 and 1.1694. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top may signal a new round of upward correction. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.1597 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.1658 R2 – 1.1719 R3 – 1.1780 Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to maintain open sell orders with targets of 1.1597 and 1.1560 as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed down. It is recommended to consider buy orders if the pair is fixed above the moving average line with the first targets of 1.1780 and 1.1841. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| The Federal Reserve may announce measures now rather than December Posted: 02 Nov 2020 03:58 PM PST The focus in recent times has been on the US election, Monday being the last day of the presidential race. The chances of either candidate winning seem equal which makes investors nervous and the uncertainty in the market increases. The volatility index is far from its usual range and is not even in the area of the levels that we have seen in recent months (20-25). The indicator went above 30-35, which once again indicates market instability. In general, Trump's victory, as well as Biden's, will equally be positive for the US stock market. If the leadership remains with the current President, it will mean maintaining trade policy with the Federal Reserve's aggressive stimulus policy. The Biden presidency is a new injection of money into the economy. The Democrat is also likely to change the tone of trade relations. Both factors, in turn, will contribute to the decline of the Dollar, which still retains its position in the market mainly due to the status of a protective asset. As soon as the election situation clears up and none of the candidates contest the results, Dollar sales are likely to increase. It is worth noting that immediately after the election, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on monetary policy. There has been growing talk that the regulator may take action as early as this week, without waiting for the December meeting. The reason is the deterioration of the epidemiological situation and the lack of new budget incentives. Congress cannot seem to come to an agreement on any stimulus package and companies in major American cities are boarded up because of a possible wave of protests over the election results. Recall that due to the election, the Central Bank postponed the scheduled meeting for Wednesday-Thursday. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell and other senior officials of the US regulator are calling on the US government to increase budget spending. This will help Americans cope with the consequences of the pandemic. The first release on GDP for the third quarter showed growth of a record 33% but economists still fear for the economic recovery in the future. Due to the growing number of infected people in the country, many states are tightening their social distancing policies, and federal incentives have mostly been stopped. On Friday, the Federal Reserve lowered the minimum loan amount under the real sector lending program to $ 100,000 from $ 250. In addition, conditions were simplified for small and medium-sized companies applying for a loan. Companies, however, did not rush to get loans. The regulator may have to increase the pace of asset repurchases from the current $120 billion a month or make other adjustments. This will be a signal that the Central Bank is ready to lend a shoulder to the markets. Meanwhile, officials do not believe that an increase in the volume of incentives will have a tangible effect. The FOMC may also announce a move to buy back longer-term securities. Thus, financial officials will show that this is real quantitative easing and not just a way to maintain the level of liquidity. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2020 03:58 PM PST
Trading idea for gold. Gold prices have declined significantly over the past two trading days, breaking through the technical trend line of support. I propose to consider the scenario for the continued fall of gold before the US elections according to the following scheme:
As a matter of fact, we have a three-wave structure ABC, where the wave A is the initiative of Wednesday and Thursday. Now, we have a pullback wave "B," which has reached 50% Fibo from the short impulse. It is recommended to work on the downside in order to update the September minimum at the 1848 quote. The short-term scenario will be relevant until the breakdown of 1910. The probability is 2 to 1. This trading idea is presented in the framework of the "Price Action" and "Stop Hunting" methods. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2020 01:06 PM PST Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair The EUR/USD pair reached the support level of 1.1623 at the beginning of the day, but failed to overcome it in general on Monday, November 2. As mentioned, it made another attempt to take this level in the afternoon, and failed once again. Thus, sellers showed their weakness on the first trading day of the week, and we warn novice traders that this weakness could be the beginning of a new upward trend. By and large, nothing strange happened today. The foreign exchange market often stands still on Mondays. And there was no major news or macroeconomic reports today. Therefore, it is understandable why traders are calm. However, from a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair may change the downward trend to an upward trend in the near future. To do this, the quotes only need to settle above the descending channel, in which they are still moving. And today they have already tried to get out through the upper boundary, but they also failed at this attempt. Thus, neither buyers nor sellers had an advantage in the market on Monday. The US and the European Union published business activity indices in manufacturing. These indicators turned out to be higher than forecasted, but the markets are now clearly absorbed by other, much more important topics. In general, there was no reaction to these reports. There was also no news on the topic of the US elections or the coronavirus in the European Union. Thus, in general, the overall negative background for the pair remains. The difficult epidemiological situation with COVID-2019 in the eurozone may continue to exert pressure on the euro/dollar pair. If only not for the elections that will take place tomorrow. It is almost impossible to predict the market behavior. No important reports scheduled in the European Union on November 3. However, traders won't need it anyway. The presidential elections will finally be held in the United States, which all the media have been talking about for three months. Basically, it is impossible to say what the reaction of traders will be tomorrow and how the pair will move during the day. Therefore, we recommend that novice traders trade with extreme caution or not trade at all. Possible scenarios for November 3: 1) Buy positions on the EUR/USD pair remain irrelevant at the moment, since the price continues to stay within the descending channel. Thus, novice traders should at least wait for the price to settle above the descending channel, afterwards it will be possible to count on an upward movement. The first target is the 1.1696 level. 2) Trading for a fall at this time remains relevant, although the pair has already gone down 190 points. However, as long as the price remains within the descending channel, you are advised to trade on a decline. The problem is that the channel is quite narrow and any correction will cause the quotes to leave it. However, there is no correction now, and the MACD indicator does not have enough time to discharge enough to form a strong sell signal. Tomorrow, the pair could be thrown from side to side. Therefore, you need to be prepared for anything. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| November 2, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations. Posted: 02 Nov 2020 07:49 AM PST
Threeweeks ago, temporary breakout above 1.1750 was demonstrated within the depicted ascending channel. This indicated high probability of bullish continuation towards 1.1880. However, downside pressure pushed the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1700 where significant BUYING Pressure Existed. This was followed by another quick upside movement towards 1.1880-1.1900. The price zone around 1.1880-1.1900 constituted a KEY Price-Zone as it corresponded to the backside of the depicted broken ascending channel where significant bearish pressure and a reversal Head & Shoulders pattern were demonstrated. Recently, Two opportunities for SELL Entries were offered upon the recent upside movement towards 1.1880-1.1900. Suggested SELLING positions are already running in profits. Early signs of bullish reversal are being demonstrated around the current price levels of 1.1630. Exit level should be lowered to 1.1720 to secure more profits. Trade Recommendations :-Currently, the price zone of 1.1740-1.1780 stands as a significant Resistance-Zone to be watched during any upcoming upside pullback for a valid SELL Position. Initial bearish target would be located around 1.1720 and 1.1690. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| November 2, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 02 Nov 2020 07:40 AM PST
In July, the EURUSD pair has failed to maintain bearish momentum strong enough to move below 1.1150 (consolidation range lower zone). Instead, bullish breakout above 1.1380-1.1400 has lead to a quick bullish spike directly towards 1.1750 which failed to offer sufficient bearish pressure as well. Bullish persistence above 1.1700 - 1.1760 favored further bullish advancement towards 1.1975 - 1.2000 ( the upper limit of the technical channel ) which constituted a Solid SUPPLY-Zone offering bearish pressure. Moreover, Intraday traders should have noticed the recent bearish closure below 1.1700. This indicates bearish domination on the short-term. On the other hand, the EURUSD pair has failed to maintain sufficient bearish momentum below 1.1750. Instead, another bullish breakout was being demonstrated towards 1.1870 which corresponds to 76% Fibonacci Level. As mentioned in previous articles, the price zone of 1.1870-1.1900 stood as a solid SUPPLY Zone corresponding to the backside of the broken channel. Intraday Trend-Traders could have considered the recent bearish H4 candlestick closure below 1.1770 as a valid short-term SELL Signal with bearish targets reached around 1.1700 and 1.1630. Any bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1770 should be considered for signs of bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry. S/L should be placed just above 1.1810. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| November 2, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 02 Nov 2020 07:38 AM PST
Short-term bearish outlook was expected especially after bearish persistence was achieved below the lower limit of the newly-established ascending-channel around 1.3100. A quick bearish decline took place towards 1.2780 and 1.2700 where considerable bullish rejection brought the pair back towards 1.3000 and 1.3100 during the past few weeks. The price zone of 1.3100-1.3150 (the depicted channel upper limit) constituted an Intraday Key-Zone to offering considerable bearish pressure on the GBPUSD Pair. Bullish Persistence above the mentioned price zone of 1.3100-1.3150 was supposed to allow bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3400 as a final projection target for the suggested bullish pattern. However, the GBP/USD pair failed to do so, Instead, another bearish movement is probably targeting the price level of 1.2840 where bullish SUPPORT will probably exist allowing another bullish movement initiallytowards 1.3000. On the other hand, please note that any bullish breakout above 1.3000 will probably enable further bullish advancement towards 1.3150-1.3170 to gather sufficient bearish pressure. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trump or Biden: whose victory the euro needs Posted: 02 Nov 2020 07:28 AM PST
New lockdowns in Europe and the uncertainty surrounding the US elections are forcing investors to give up buying risk. The dollar index rose on these factors and seems to be firmly entrenched above 94 points. However, on Monday it lost a little enthusiasm and lost his morning gains. The demand for defensive assets has weakened somewhat, but it is too early to speak of a full-fledged increase in risk appetite. The mark of 94.6 points acts as resistance to the further rebound of the dollar index, while the long-term target remains near 90 points.
Market players cite the recovery of the USD index as one of the reasons for the decline in the euro. Currently, the focus is on the US elections. And while traders are assessing the results of the elections, the dollar is provided additional support by the growing incidence of coronavirus in the world. Democratic representative Joe Biden leads in all polls, but the intrigue persists. At the last rally, the current US President Donald Trump made it clear that he would not give up just like that. If necessary, he intends to defend his victory in the Supreme Court. And if the court is controlled by Republicans, this may work in favor of Trump. EUR / USD has lost momentum for growth, which appeared in hopes related to the adoption of the package of measures before the elections. Despite the fact that the final PMI data in the manufacturing sector in Germany and France beat economists' forecasts, the euro is still aimed at testing September lows in the 1.16 region. If this mark is still broken downward, a deeper decline will follow. However, this is unlikely to happen before the elections. What happens next will largely depend on the election results. There are also rumors in the markets that Joe Biden's victory may negatively affect the dynamics of the dollar which, at the moment, risks losing about 1-2% against the euro. When a disputable situation arises, that is, if the losing side does not admit defeat, instead of a drop in risk appetite, we will witness panic sales.
If you look at the situation more broadly and do not get hung up on the US presidential elections, then the euro against the background of more confident economic recovery rates may be more interesting to investors than the US dollar. Greenback risks widening devaluation. A massive monetary and fiscal stimulus program and the US government's eagerness to reduce the trade deficit make the dollar less attractive as a capital preservation tool. The outlook for the euro looks the most robust. Looking back a little, you can see that the pace of economic recovery in the eurozone after the first wave of the pandemic is higher than in the US. Thus, in the foreseeable future, in the absence of additional shocks, the EUR / USD pair will again aim for the 1.20 mark. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of EURUSD Posted: 02 Nov 2020 06:14 AM PST EURUSD is in a bearish trend according to the Ichimoku cloud indicator. Price has broken below the cloud support and is heading towards 1.16-1.15 which was our first target area after breaking below 1.17.
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| Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of Gold Posted: 02 Nov 2020 06:10 AM PST Gold price has started the week on a positive note despite Dollar strength. Price is bouncing towards key short-term resistance but the chances of a rejection remain high as price is still below the Daily Cloud.
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| USDJPY inside trading range forming a wedge pattern Posted: 02 Nov 2020 05:43 AM PST USDJPY has formed a downward sloping wedge pattern. Price is making lower lows and lower highs in a tightening price range. Price has recently bounced off the support at 104.40 and it is possibly heading towards 105-105.30.
Green line - support This downward sloping wedge pattern will most probably break to the upside. Why the chances are in favor of a bullish break out? Because the RSI is also making a bullish divergence. The RSI is not making lower lows as price does. In order to confirm the bullish break out, price should move above 105.35 and stay above it. This could bring price back to 108. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EURUSD and GBPUSD: How will the US dollar behave after the US election? Posted: 02 Nov 2020 05:33 AM PST Today's data on manufacturing activity in the Eurozone helped the euro to maintain its position against the US dollar, however, the bears still managed to achieve another low update. This is where the active sales phase may end before the US election, which starts tomorrow. In any case, there are several key scenarios that the market will follow, and we will talk about them below. As expected by leading economic agencies, if the Democratic Party wins and gets a majority in both Houses of Congress, the US dollar may significantly weaken against risky assets due to the rather high probability of adopting the next economic stimulus program in the amount of 2.0-2.5 trillion US dollars in the spring of next year. Such a scenario is likely to cause a significant correction of the US dollar and weaken its position on the world stage. If the current US President Donald Trump and his Republican Party win a complete victory, and the latter get a full majority in the US Congress, the position of the US dollar will only strengthen. The reason for this is the persistent opposition of Trump and his completely different, less expensive attitude to the next package of measures to help the American economy, which needs another financial support against the background of the second wave of coronavirus infection. The worst scenario for the US dollar, and traders in general, is Joe Biden's victory in the elections with a majority in only one House of Congress, as well as with a minimal margin, which Donald Trump will try to challenge in the Supreme Court. This situation will put many people in a dead-end, because the confrontation that was observed before, even if we do not take political points, will continue, and what kind of assistance measures will be taken in the end – we can only guess. Let me remind you that since August of this year, Republicans and Democrats have been unable to agree on a new package of assistance to the population and businesses. Now, as for European statistics, today's data, although not particularly surprising to traders, helped risky assets to stop their fall against the US dollar. Both the euro and the British pound managed to protect their rather important support levels. Thanks to industrial activity, which will now be assigned the main task of saving the economy, we can expect a less steep peak, which occurred after the spring introduction of quarantine measures and complete economic paralysis. According to the data, activity in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone in October 2020 grew stronger than expected. The IHS Markit report indicated that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the Eurozone manufacturing sector was at 54.8 points against the preliminary estimate of 54.4 points. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged. Let me remind you that back in September, the index was 53.7 points, and its value above 50 indicates an increase in activity compared to the previous month. The lack of growth in consumer goods orders was offset by a surge in orders for equipment and transport. In the second half of the day, similar data are expected for the US, but most likely, investors will refrain from aggressive purchases of the dollar due to tomorrow's US elections. Euro buyers have already proved their strength, and to maintain the downward trend in the EURUSD trading instrument, objectively new events are needed that can shake the market in any of the parties. One of them may be a downgrade of Italy's rating by the credit agency Moody's. There is talk on the market that during the next rating review this Friday, Moody's Investors Service may lower the outlook for Italy's 'Baa3' rating from stable to negative. But we remember Friday's data on Italian GDP growth, which turned out to be much better than economists' forecasts, so if nothing changes and the rating is not revised, this will be a positive signal for buyers of risky assets. As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it has not changed much compared to the morning forecast. Bears will seek to break through the support of 1.1615, which will open a direct path to a new low of 1.1580, but the longer-term goal will be the area of 1.1540, where the pressure on the euro may ease. Sales will increase especially strongly in the event of weak data on activity in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone. But it's also worth keeping in mind this week's Federal Reserve meeting, which is set for the second half. Therefore, the fact of slowing demand for the US dollar is also present. A return above the level of 1.1650 will open a direct path to the base of the 17th figure, the breakout of which will lead the trading instrument to the area of 1.1760 and 1.1835. GBPUSD The British pound recovered a little after the statements of the British government, which announced that later this week, England will be quarantined. This was done with the sole purpose of containing the spread of COVID-19. Good indicators on manufacturing activity helped the pound. According to IHS Markit and CIPS, the purchasing managers' index for the UK manufacturing sector in October 2020 was revised up to 53.7 points from a preliminary estimate of 53.3 points. In September, the index was 54.1 points. Some expert agencies expect demand for British goods in the last months of this year due to the likelihood of the most severe Brexit scenario. The parties failed to reach an agreement last week and so far there is no information about the continuation of negotiations, which will continue to put pressure on the British pound. Previously accumulated stocks may enjoy higher demand, which will support the UK economy at the end of this year, before the end of the Brexit transition period on December 31. Consumer goods will also be in high demand due to paralysis and the closure of the service sector due to the coronavirus pandemic. This may provide good support for the pound at the beginning of next year and lay a good foundation for further recovery of the pair. As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the bears once again failed to break below the support of 1.2855, which indicates that a large static buyer remains at this level. Let me remind you that last week I repeatedly drew attention to the high importance of the 1.2855 level, as it may determine the further upward trend of the pound. However, there is no doubt that more cautious players are leaving the market. In the reports of Commitment of Traders for October 27, there was a reduction in both short and long positions. Long non-commercial positions fell from 39,836 to 31,799. At the same time, short non-commercial positions dropped from 41,836 to 38,459. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was at -6,660 against -2,000 a week earlier. If buyers of the pound still lose control of the 1.2855 support, we can expect a new major fall in the trading instrument to the lows of 1.2800 and 1.2745. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| BTC analysis for November 02,.2020 - Watch for potential downside breakout towards $12.140 Posted: 02 Nov 2020 05:25 AM PST Further Developmen t Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that BTC is ready for the potential downside movement and the breakout of the multi day balance based on the dailly time-frame. Watch for selling opportunities if you see the breakout of the Friday's low at $13,100 with the downside target set at $12,850 and $12,140 Key Levels: Resistance: $13,900 Support level: $12,140 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis of Gold for November 02,.2020 - Potential for another downside cycle and test of $1.866 Posted: 02 Nov 2020 05:10 AM PST Goldman Sachs cuts European growth forecasts amid virus resurgence, lockdown measures No surprises here
I always make mention that when it comes to forecasts, especially during this time, take them with a pinch of salt. They mean little considering that there is no certainty on how the virus situation is going to progress and how governments will respond. If anything else, just use these as a sentiment guide rather than a predictor of sorts.
Further Development
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that the Gold is near the critical pivot resistance at the price of $1,895/$1,897 and that there is potential for the downside rotation. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Lumber and Feeder Catt;e today and on the bottom VIX and Gasoline RBOB Gold is positive on the list but with potential overbought condition... Key Levels: Resistance: $1,895 Support level: $1,866 and $1,849 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2020 05:09 AM PST
Oil prices opened this trading month with a slide. Today, November 2, the price of Brent crude oil fell to $36 per barrel. American WTI crude decreased to $34. The situation is similar to the price collapse in May. Since this summer, prices for "black gold" have dropped by more than 20%. The slump in oil prices was caused by the second wave of the coronavirus, in particular, by concerns about a recovery in demand. Due to the fast spread of COVID-19, many European countries, such as Austria, the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland, and others, were forced to reintroduce restrictive measures. By the way, according to the latest data, the number of people infected with the coronavirus in Europe exceeded 10 million. With many countries reintroducing quarantines, demand for fuel is falling. The upcoming US presidential election is also weighing on the market. Futures for Brent crude oil dropped by 3.61% to trade at $36.57 per barrel, WTI lost 3.97% to settle at $34.37 per barrel. Both benchmarks decreased by more than 5.8% earlier in the session, hitting lows for the first time since May. Investors are awaiting actions from OPEC+ as their decision to extend production cuts should support prices. According to OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo, by the end of 2020, the group will discuss the terms of the deal in 2021. At the moment, oil production has been reduced by 7.7 million barrels per day. From the beginning of 2021, it is planned to cut production to 5.8 million barrels. However, given the current situation, production growth remains a big question. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD: What are the options USD have? Posted: 02 Nov 2020 05:05 AM PST
The US dollar showed its maximum growth last Friday, since September ended. This is primarily due to the rising cases of COVID-19 in Europe and the uncertainty pre-election in the United States. Today, the indicated currency is trying to keep the advantage gained earlier, trading above the mark of 94 points. The long-awaited US presidential election will take place on Tuesday. According to some sources, although the chances of Joe Biden winning are now estimated at 89%, many experts believe that we should not make early conclusions yet because of what happened during the 2016 elections. Mr. Donald Trump has recently managed to somewhat narrow the gap, especially in key fluctuating states such as Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan. If he will be re-elected, the US dollar is expected to rise against the currencies of the G10 countries. On the contrary, if Mr. Joe Biden wins, the US dollar is expected to weaken. In case that the election results will be delayed or if something controversial appeared after that, this will lead to a rise in volatility in the currency market. If this happens, the USD may strengthen amid increasing demand for defensive assets. Experts from Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted that the currency volatility may increase after the election day, since it is possible that the losing candidate will question the election results. If we recall the 2016 election, it took around a month to resolve the disagreement. In the 24 hours after the US presidential election in 2016, the EUR/USD trading range was 300 points. If one of the candidates refuses to recognize the results of the upcoming vote, the fluctuations may be more dramatic. Last Friday, the classic pair tried to recover around the level of 1.1700, however, it pulled back so it closed the day around the level of 1.1645. In terms of news background, ECB's head, Christine Lagarde, hinted that markets should expect new stimulus from the regulator in December. She also warned that the eurozone could face another recession if the region's economy returns to the compression zone in the fourth quarter after rebounding a quarter earlier. After realizing that Europe is ahead of the United States in terms of quantitative easing and quarantine restrictions, it triggered a sell-off in the Euro last week and helped strengthen the US dollar. If the pressure on the single European currency continues in November, the EUR/USD pair may well update the September lows located around 1.1600 after the US presidential election. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2020 04:54 AM PST ECB's Rehn: Inflation expectations are stuck too low
Nothing that really stands out from Rehn, as he is mainly just reaffirming the current situation. As for the current ECB strategy review, it was supposed to have been done by now but has been dragged to next year because of the virus crisis. The headline supports the narrative that more easing action is to follow next month. Further Development
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Lumber and Feeder Catt;e today and on the bottom VIX and Gasoline RBOB Key Levels: Resistance: 1,1650 and 1,1700 Support level: 1,15 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2020 04:40 AM PST To open long positions in GBP/USD you should: In my morning forecast, I paid special attention to the resistance at 1.2915, considering it to be a good level to open short positions from in case of a breakout. In fact, everything happened in line with my forecast. Now, let's take a look at the M5 time frame and analyze the moment of entry into short positions. Bears have tested the level of 1.2915 bottom-up once again. As a result, a relatively convenient entry point appeared. We can set a Stop Loss order from this mark. Consequently, it leads to an instant sell-off of the pound to the low of 1.2865, where I suggested to place a Take Profit. Positive UK's manufacturing PMI data gave strength to bulls. Nevertheless, I failed to open long positions from this level since the formation of a false breakout - a test of the 1.2865 level from top-down - had not been confirmed. I marked the area where this test could take place on the chart.
Even though the price movement in the first half of the day was quite strong, from a technical point of view, practically nothing has changed. Buyers should defend the support level of 1.2905. Trading is currently taking place above this level. A return of the price to this level after such a significant drop in the first half of the day indicates the presence of a major player. As long as trading remains above this range, the chances after high that GBP/USD will be able to recover. The next formation of a false breakout there will give a buy signal. Thus, long positions may be considered in the area of the 1.2984 high where you should set a Taking Profit order. I'd rather refrain from opening long positions if there is no buying activity around the level of 1.2905 in the afternoon and a positive ISM Manufacturing PMI report. A false breakout in the support area of 1.2856 will give a buy signal to open long positions against the trend. I suggest buying the pound immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.2807, tacking into account a correction of 15-20 pips within the day. To open short positions in GBP/USD you should: Bulls should return the level of 1.2905. If the pair consolidates below the mark it will again bring the pair under pressure and lead to the resumption of the bear market. The initial target will be the low of 1.2856, which has withstood bearish pressure for the fifth time in the last month. Only consolidation below this range will increase the pressure on the pound and lead to a larger sell-off to the 1.2807 low, where I suggest taking profits. In the second half of the day, if the GBP/USD rises after the data on manufacturing business activity in the US is published, it is best to wait for the test of the 1.2984 high and sell the pound immediately on a rebound, taking into account a correction of 20-30 pips within the day.
As for the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for October 27, both the number of short and long positions decreased. Long non-commercial positions fell to 31,799 from 39,836. At the same time, short non-commercial positions dropped to 38,459 from 41,836. As a result, the negative non-commercial net position was at -6,660, against -2,000 in the previous week, indicating sellers' dominance in the current situation.
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading takes place slightly below the 30 and 50 day averages which indicates bearish control of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author of the article on the hourly chart and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart. Bollinger Bands In case of an upward correction, the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.2970 will act as resistance, from which the pound can be sold. Description of indicators Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands. Period 20 Nonprofit traders are speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 02 Nov 2020 04:27 AM PST The US stock market closed with a tremendous fall last week, with the Dow Jones posting its worst week and month since March 2020.
To some extent, this severe market volatility is due to the US presidential elections, together with the worsening situation of COVID-19 all over the world. In fact, investors are becoming more and more concerned about the stubborn increase of new infections, and this doubled when authorities, Europe's in particular, have reinstated quarantine restrictions. Aside from that, global tech giants have released their controversial quarterly reports, which further shattered investor optimism. Clearly, many are afraid that the gloomy situation last February and March would repeat. Thus, even though economic statistics are improving now and there is an increase in corporate financial performance, many are awaiting new measures aimed at curbing the spread of the coronavirus. At the moment though, the US economy has grown by 33.1% in the third quarter, much better than the forecast of economists which is only 31%. To add to that, the incomes of Americans have risen by 0.9% in September, and this is the highest growth recorded in the indicator after a record jump in April this year. At the same time, spending has also increased, climbing up by 1.4%. But despite this background, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 157.51 points (0.59%) on Friday, closing at around 26501.60 points. As a matter of fact, the index has dropped by 6.5% over the past week, which was the largest decline it observed since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Even the S&P 500 fell by 40.15 points (1.21%), closing at around 3269.96 points. The overall decline of the index last week was 5.6%. As for Nasdaq, the index was down 274 points (2.45%), settling at 10,911.59 points. The indicator lost 5.5% over the week. Overall, the decrease in these three major indices was more than 2%. It seems that the quarterly reports and long-term prospects of large technology companies put particularly negative pressure on the indices. For example, Twitter Inc. fell by 21.11% in the third quarter, reducing its net profit by 38%. Apple Inc. also decreased by 5.6%, and this is because even though demand for computers and digital services have increased during the pandemic, sales of iPhones dropped. Even Amazon.com Inc, whose net profit for nine months of this year has already surpassed the indicator for the entire previous one, was down by 5.45%. Shares of one of the world's largest social networking sites, Facebook Inc., also dropped by 6.31%. As for video game developer, Activision Blizzard Inc., shares have decreased by 2.62%. Although its net profit and revenue have increased, the corporation's annual forecast did not meet analysts' expectations. Meanwhile, Starbucks Corp. saw a drop in price by 1.52%, especially since its net income and revenues decreased significantly. Honeywell International Inc. also fell 0.21, after losing profit and revenue in the third quarter. However, its figures exceeded analysts' annual expectations, and to add to that, the company promises a recovery and upbeat trend this 4th quarter. As for Exxon Mobil, shares were down 1.06%, recording another loss last quarter. The reason for this is a drop in mining revenues and weakening demand for fuel in connection with the new wave of coronavirus. One of the most popular tobacco companies in the world, Altria Group Inc. also fell by 2.14% even amid adjusted profit and revenue above analysts' forecasts. KKR & Co., despite an increased profit, also dropped by 1.84%. Lastly, contrary to the experience of the aforementioned companies, Chevron Corp. grew by 1.02%. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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