The Thanksgiving Dinner Paradigm

The cost of a Thanksgiving Day dinner (1986-2020) November 25, 2020 UNSUBSCRIBE | ARCHIVES George Gilder: “Forget 5G… buy ‘15G’ instead” With everything going on… And with the entire world causing a surge of new internet demand… Will 5G stocks explode to new highs when America reopens for business? The truth is, they could. But ask George Gilder, who’s been called “America’s #1 Futurist” and a “technology prophet”… and who’s won the ear of presidents and billionaires… what he thinks you should buy… And he’ll tell you to forget 5G… Because it’s time to load up on what he calls “15G” instead. Nobody’s talking about this. You’ll be the first to get details, at this link. The Thanksgiving Dinner Paradigm Dear Daily Prophecy Reader, The following Daily Prophecy was written by Marian L. Tupy and Gale L. Pooley. George Gilder Sees Something Big Happening Much has been written about the cost of living in the United States. As Mark J. Perry from the American Enterprise Institute documents, childcare, education and healthcare, became more expensive relative to wages over the last two decades. Conversely, cars, clothing, food and beverages, household furnishings, housing, software and toys became cheaper. In this article, we focus on the cost of a Thanksgiving Day dinner between 1986 and 2020. The positive picture we paint does not detract from the real hardship experienced by American families during the COVID-19 pandemic. But it may make us more grateful for the US farmers and free enterprise that make food historically superabundant. Since 1986, the American Farm Bureau Federation has conducted an annual price survey of food items found in a typical Thanksgiving Day dinner. The items on this shopping list are designed to serve a group of 10 people, with leftovers. The list includes a 16-pound turkey, a 30-ounce pumpkin pie mix, one gallon of milk, one-pound vegetable tray, 12 bread rolls, two pie shells, one pound of green peas, 12 ounces of fresh cranberries, one-half pint of whipping cream, 14 ounces of cubed stuffing, three pounds of sweet potatoes and several miscellaneous ingredients. What happened to the price of a Thanksgiving Day dinner over time? In nominal terms, the cost rose from $28.74 in 1986 to $46.90 in 2020 or 63.2 percent. Over the same period, inflation amounted to 135 percent. To keep with inflation, the dinner should have cost around $67.69. In fact, it cost only $46.90. So, adjusted for inflation, a Thanksgiving Day dinner became $20.79 or 30.7 percent cheaper. But what if we analyze the cost of a Thanksgiving Day dinner using time-prices? To calculate the time-price of a Thanksgiving Day dinner, we divide the nominal price of the meal by the nominal wage rate. That will give us the number of hours of work required to earn enough money to feed the 10 guests. We can then analyze the change in time-prices over time. Have you heard George Gilder’s latest extraordinary prediction yet? He was dubbed the “Tech Prophet” by Forbes… once won the White House Award for Entrepreneurial Excellence… and his work is respected by tech insiders like Bill Gates and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt…   And recently, Gilder went on camera to explain how a new tech revolution is about to hit America… one that could unleash up to $15.1 trillion in new wealth.   According to Gilder, if you don’t understand this new tech you could miss out on one of the greatest moneymaking opportunities for thirty five years.   Get more details here. As noted, the nominal cost of a Thanksgiving Day dinner increased 63.2 percent between 1986 and 2020. Over the same period, the unskilled hourly wage rate increased by 173.2 percent. That means that the time-price of the meal for an unskilled worker declined from 5.48 hours in 1986 to 3.27 hours in 2020 or 40.3 percent. As such, unskilled workers could buy 1.67 Thanksgiving Day dinners in 2020 for the same length of time of work it took to buy one meal in 1986. The hourly compensation rate of a blue-collar worker rose by 163.4 percent. Consequently, the time-price of a Thanksgiving Day dinner declined from 2.23 hours in 1986 to 1.38 hours in 2020 or 38 percent. As such, blue-collar workers could buy 1.61 Thanksgiving Day dinners in 2020 for the same length of time of work it took to buy one meal in 1986. The unskilled workers who upgraded their skills to become blue-collar workers between 1986 and 2020, saw their hourly wage rise by 547.4 percent. So, the time-price of a Thanksgiving Day dinner fell by 74.8 percent. These “upskilling” workers were thus able to buy 3.97 Thanksgiving Day dinners for the same length of time of work it took them to buy one meal in 1986. The “Carbon Web” Finally, imagine providing a Thanksgiving Day dinner for everyone in the United States. That will give you a sense of the relationship between food prices and population growth. The US population rose from 240 million in 1986 to 331 million in 2020 or 37.9 percent. What happened to the total Thanksgiving Day dinner bill over that 34-year period? If the whole of the United States consisted of unskilled workers in 1986, the total Thanksgiving Day dinner bill would have fallen by 17.6 percent in 2020. If everyone in the United States were a blue-collar worker, the total bill would have fallen by 14.6 percent. If everyone upskilled from unskilled work to blue-collar work, the total Thanksgiving Day dinner bill would have fallen by an astonishing 65.2 percent. Put differently, the total Thanksgiving Day dinner bill in the United States fell, even though the US population increased. With every hungry mouth, comes a pair of hands and a brain capable of invention and innovation. So, on this Thanksgiving Day, let us be thankful for all the American inventors and innovators who enrich our lives with plentiful food and, hopefully, a cure for the COVID-19 pandemic. Marian L. Tupy is the editor of HumanProgress.org and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute’s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity. Gale L. Pooley is an associate professor of business management at Brigham Young University-Hawaii. Regards, George Gilder Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy America’s Death Spiral Begins January 15? If you’re like most folks, you’re probably wondering how we got here... America’s institutions are rotten to the core. Common sense and human decency are relics of the past. And Americans at each other’s throats. Well, it wasn’t by accident.  The prophetic analyst who predicted the subprime mortgage meltdown… the financial crisis of 2008… and Brexit… Says a grand experiment has been conducted on the American people without our consent. And the horrifying endgame is set to arrive on January 15, 2021… Will you be ready? Click here for the full details. To end your Gilder's Daily Prophecy e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Gilder's Daily Prophecy, feel free to click here. If you are having trouble receiving your Gilder's Daily Prophecy subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by whitelisting Gilder's Daily Prophecy. Gilder's Daily Prophecy is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. Please read our Privacy Statement. For any further comments or concerns please email us at GildersDailyProphecy@threefounderspublishing.com. Three Founders Publishing, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. 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