Amazon’s Beautiful New Dream

Gilder's Daily Prophecy

December 22, 2020

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George Gilder: "Forget 5G… buy '15G' instead"

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Amazon's Beautiful New Dream

George GilderDear Daily Prophecy Reader,

Yesterday I shared the first part in this excerpt. Below you’ll find the second excerpt from the November issue of The George Gilder Report.

And if you aren’t currently a subscriber, you can go here for more information.


Amazon apparently offers tours of its Seattle headquarters. Not sure why they bother. It’s just offices, albeit with an indoor rainforest. But Amazon’s warehouses-without-aisles — now those you gotta see.

They stretched the tail by conquering space. You see, while warehouse shelf space might cost a fraction of retail shelf space, it’s not free. If you cut the cost of accessible storage in half, you may double the length of the tail. Amazon has cut it by a lot more than half.

The Amazon robots further stretch the tail by compressing time, or at least paid man hours. The cheaper it is to store, pick, and pack, the longer the tail can be. But this actually understates the case for the robots.

The robots also make the warehouses bigger. My cousin-in-law, former MIT professor Larry Sweet, explained the strategy in a speech at one of my Telecosm conferences at Lake Tahoe — and later when he brought his world-beating knowledge of robotics and warehousing to Amazon.

You see, a warehouse tended by humans has to make sense. The layout needs to be logical. If you send a human to find something in inventory, he needs to know where to look. Maybe he looks for the apples near the apricots; maybe he looks for the apples near the aardvarks. In either case, the need for organizational logic may have a cost in space.

If there just happens to be extra space left between the aardvarks and the anteaters, it can’t be filled in with something that doesn’t make sense. It can’t become the new home of a gaggle of geese. No one would ever see them again (though they might hear them).

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Robots don’t care.

With their large but limited “memory capacity” and algorithmic processors, they can stick anything anywhere, filling up every nook and cranny, leaving no space unused. And they will remember where everything is, even if it makes no sense.

The tail kept stretching as Bezos and team conquered one online retail problem after another, so completely as to make problems seem like opportunities.

Federal Express made overnight shipping an indispensable luxury. Amazon transformed it into a high-volume, low-cost commodity.

Because of Amazon, “free shipping” now rivals pickup trucks and apple pie as an American value.

For some years, Amazon’s very successes seemed to throw the company off course. Bezos, it seemed, had let go of the long tail.

Rather than transcending conventional retail, it seemed like he had decided to compete with it.

George Gilder Says Tech Investors Better Get Ready...

A Costly Shift in Direction

When, in the early 2000s, observers began to compare Amazon to Walmart, we first thought that was silly. Walmart’s buy-in-volume, hits-only approach seemed the very opposite of a long-tail strategy.

We remember when Walmart started carrying books. It was the inverse of Amazon, with only a few dozen titles stocked in piles of a hundred or more. Worse yet, Bezos himself started talking, or at least acting, as if Walmart really were his main competition.

Amazon’s new beautiful dream was that online retail could beat traditional retail at its own game. Mainstream retail — which comes down to selling widely popular products at the cheapest possible price — is and always has been a stinky, low-margin business.

It seemed like Amazon, forgetting the long tail, had decided to capture that stinky, low-margin business for itself. Instead of focusing on the long-tail premium, it would compete head to head with Walmart et al on price for common products.

Amazon’s focus shifted away from the long tail and onto the short price. This price competition could be a little hard to see. Much of Amazon’s price cutting was hidden in its massive efforts to cut shipping costs and shorten delivery times, for which Amazon (rather than the customer) increasingly absorbed the cost.

Thus was born the long running scandal of Amazon’s low margins.

Regards,

George Gilder

George Gilder
Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy

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