| Robots don’t care. With their large but limited “memory capacity” and algorithmic processors, they can stick anything anywhere, filling up every nook and cranny, leaving no space unused. And they will remember where everything is, even if it makes no sense. The tail kept stretching as Bezos and team conquered one online retail problem after another, so completely as to make problems seem like opportunities. Federal Express made overnight shipping an indispensable luxury. Amazon transformed it into a high-volume, low-cost commodity. Because of Amazon, “free shipping” now rivals pickup trucks and apple pie as an American value. For some years, Amazon’s very successes seemed to throw the company off course. Bezos, it seemed, had let go of the long tail. Rather than transcending conventional retail, it seemed like he had decided to compete with it. George Gilder Says Tech Investors Better Get Ready... A Costly Shift in Direction When, in the early 2000s, observers began to compare Amazon to Walmart, we first thought that was silly. Walmart’s buy-in-volume, hits-only approach seemed the very opposite of a long-tail strategy. We remember when Walmart started carrying books. It was the inverse of Amazon, with only a few dozen titles stocked in piles of a hundred or more. Worse yet, Bezos himself started talking, or at least acting, as if Walmart really were his main competition. Amazon’s new beautiful dream was that online retail could beat traditional retail at its own game. Mainstream retail — which comes down to selling widely popular products at the cheapest possible price — is and always has been a stinky, low-margin business. It seemed like Amazon, forgetting the long tail, had decided to capture that stinky, low-margin business for itself. Instead of focusing on the long-tail premium, it would compete head to head with Walmart et al on price for common products. Amazon’s focus shifted away from the long tail and onto the short price. This price competition could be a little hard to see. Much of Amazon’s price cutting was hidden in its massive efforts to cut shipping costs and shorten delivery times, for which Amazon (rather than the customer) increasingly absorbed the cost. Thus was born the long running scandal of Amazon’s low margins. Regards,  George Gilder Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy |
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