Forex analysis review |
- NZDUSD touches 0.72 with a second bearish divergence as expected.
- Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of EURUSD
- No surprise for Gold at the end of the week
- December 31, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- December 31, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- December 31, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.
- BTC analysis for December 31,.2020 - Symmetrical triangkle in creation. Watch for the breakout to confirm further direction
- EUR/USD analysis for December 31 2020 - Potential for the ABC completion and further rise towards 1.2300
- Analysis of Gold for December 31,.2020 - First upside target at $1.895 hs been reached. Second target at $1.906
- GBP/USD Growth Activated
- AUD/USD Targeting 0.78 Psychological Level
- USD/CAD Price Forecast for December 31, 2020
- Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 31, 2020
- Trading plan for EUR/USD on December 31
- Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 31, 2020
- EUR/USD: US dollar still thinks about a rebound, although the euro ends the year positively
- Trading idea for the USD/JPY pair
- UK Parliament signs the Brexit trade deal
- BTC/USD Rallied As Expected!
- Trading recommendations for starters on GBP/USD and EUR/USD for December 31, 2020
- Trading idea for gold
- Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on December 31, 2020
- Fractal analysis for major pairs on December 31
- Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR / USD pair on December 31
- GBP/USD. December 31. COT report. The British Parliament has approved a trade agreement with the European Union. The deal
| NZDUSD touches 0.72 with a second bearish divergence as expected. Posted: 31 Dec 2020 09:14 AM PST NZDUSD remains in a bullish trend making new higher highs today at 0.7237. Price is now below 0.72 as bulls could not respond to selling pressures. The RSI gave us another warning signal today as its value did not follow the price of NZDUSD. The RSI made a lower high thus producing a second bearish divergence.
Red lines -bearish divergence NZDUSD RSI is hitting the red downward sloping trend line resistance connecting all previous lower high tops. This is the definition of a bearish divergence. This is not a sell signal or a reversal signal. This is a warning signal and should be taken under serious consideration. Such a signal implies increased chances of a trend reversal. Support by the lower channel boundary is at 0.71. Breaking below it will confirm that an important top is in. At current levels I prefer to be at least neutral if not bearish. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Ichimoku cloud indicator Daily analysis of EURUSD Posted: 31 Dec 2020 09:03 AM PST EURUSD ends the week under pressure but still at higher levels than last week. Price reached 1.2310 earlier today but sellers stepped in and pushed price lower towards 1.2230. EURUSD is under pressure but so far there is no trend reversal confirmation as price remains inside the bullish channel.
EURUSD is testing the lower channel boundary. Bulls do not want to see price break out of the bullish channel. Recent low at 1.2129 is key support level for the short-term bullish trend. Breaking below it will be a bearish sign.
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| No surprise for Gold at the end of the week Posted: 31 Dec 2020 08:56 AM PST At the last session of the week Gold price did not surprise us with a break out or rejection. Price is very close to key resistance but no new trading signal was given. Short-term trend remains bullish as price continues to grind higher.
Red line - support trend line Gold price is still above the support trend line and is approaching the major resistance at $1,900. So far bulls tried to recapture the $1,900 level twice but both times they failed. Support in the short-term is found at $1,879.
Gold price is testing upper channel boundary. A rejection would be a bearish sign. A move lower towards the lower channel boundary can not be ruled out. However for this scenario to become our primary scenario, we need price to break below key support levels like $1,850-$1,790. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| December 31, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 31 Dec 2020 06:53 AM PST
In December, the price levels of (1.3380-1.3400) have prevented further bullish movement for the past few weeks.Bearish target was targeted around 1.3300. However, the pair has failed to pursue towards lower targets.Instead, a bullish spike was expressed towards 1.3480-1.3500 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel has previously provided temporary bearish pressure on the pair.Shortly after, another bullish spike has recently been demonstrated towards 1.3600 where the upper limit applied considerable bearish rejection again.Recently, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought while consolidating above the key-level of 1.3400.As expected, bearish reversal was recently initiated around 1.3600. A quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.3200.Intermediate-term outlook could turn into bearish if only the EUR/USD pair maintains movement below 1.3400. However, the pair has failed to maintain bearish decline below 1.3200.Instead, bullish persistence above 1.3400 invalidates the bearish scenario for the short-term. Another temporary bullish movement may be expressed towards 1.3700 (the channel's upper limit) where bearish rejection should be anticipated. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| December 31, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 31 Dec 2020 06:51 AM PST
The EURUSD pair was trapped below the previous key-level (1.2000) until bullish breakout occured to the upside recently in December. Further quick bullish advancement was expressed towards 1.2150 just as expected after failing to find sufficient bearish pressure at retesting of the backside of the broken channel around 1.1970-1.2000 which corresponds roughly to Fibonacci Level of 0%. Recently, the pair looked overbought while approaching the price levels of 1.2250 (138% Fibonacci Level). That's why, conservative traders were advised to look either for SELL Positions or low risk BUY trades around lower price levels.Bearish closure and persistence below 1.2160 then 1.2000 is needed to abort the ongoing bullish momentum to initiate a bearish movement at least towards 1.1860 and 1.1770. Otherwise, the intermediate-outlook for the pair would remain bullish at least towards 1.2330 where 150% Fibonacci Level is located. This is where an Intraday SELL Entry may be offered.The price zone around 1.2000-1.1975 remains a Demand Zone to offer bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD pair if any bearish pullback occurs. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| December 31, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations. Posted: 31 Dec 2020 06:50 AM PST
By the end of November, Signs of BUYING Pressure have been initiated around the depicted price zone of 1.1800-1.1840.Shortly after, the EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a quick upside movement. The pair has targeted the price levels around 1.1990 initially which exerted considerable bearish pressure bringing the pair back towards 1.1920 which constituted a temporary KEY-Zone for the EUR/USD pair. That's why, another episode of upside movement was expressed towards 1.2160 where a false breakout above the price level of 1.2200 was regarded as a considerable bearish reversal signal. Two weeks ago, a short-term reversal pattern has been demonstrated around 1.2265. Intraday downside retracement to the downside was expected to occur.Bearish closure below the mentioned price zone of 1.2200 - 1.2170 was needed to turn the intermediate outlook for the pair into bearish and enhance a quick bearish decline towards 1.2040 then 1.1920. However, the EUR/USD pair has failed to pursue towards lower price levels. Instead, the pair is currently spiking above the depicted Weekly HIGH around 1.2270. Trade Recommendations :- Conservative traders are advised to look for SELL Positions around higher price levels near 1.2270-1.2290. Exit level should be placed above 1.2300. Target levels should be located around 1.2200, 1.2170 then 1.2120. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 31 Dec 2020 04:30 AM PST Further Development
Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is the symmetrical triangle on the 1H time*frame in creation, which is sign of the contraction. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 31 Dec 2020 04:22 AM PST Manufacturing 51.9
Non-manufacturing 55.7
Composite 55.1
All three slipping back a little on the month and still expanding. Further Development
Analyzing the current trading chart of EURUSD, I found that there is sellers today on the market but that there is also potential for the abc downside correction completion, which is sign for the further rise. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2285 and 1,2300 Support level: 1,2265 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 31 Dec 2020 04:16 AM PST ECB's Weidmann says do not expect central banks to keep interest rates low forever Bundesbank President and hence ECB board member Jens Weidmann in an interview with a German newspaper.
Further Development
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that the price reached our first upward target from yesterday at the price of $1,895 and $1,905. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,905 Support levels: $1,885 and $1,905 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 31 Dec 2020 04:03 AM PST
GBP/USD has finally managed to jump above the 1.3613 previous high, static resistance. It has retested this level, signaling that it should resume its uptrend. As you can see on the H4 chart, the price has escaped from the upper channel's body indicating further growth. I have mentioned in my previous analysis that GBP/USD will resume its upside movement if it jumps and stabilizes above the 1.3613 level. The upside scenario has taken shape as the price is traded at the 1.3650 level, so more gains are expected. GBP/USD Trading Conclusion!The breakout above 1.3613 was validated by a minor retest, so it represents a buying opportunity. The 1.3700 level is seen as a first upside target. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| AUD/USD Targeting 0.78 Psychological Level Posted: 31 Dec 2020 03:34 AM PST AUD/USD has climbed as much as 0.7733 level today and it seems strong enough to resume its current upwards momentum. USDX's further drop punishes the greenback which has retreated against all its rivals and not only against the Aussie. USD continues to drop after yesterday's mixed US economic data. Today, the US is to release the Unemployment Claims but I do not think that it will change the sentiment. AUD/USD Seems Unstoppable
AUD/USD is traded beyond the first warning line (wl1) of the ascending pitchfork which represents strong dynamic resistance. The R2 (0.7698) was taken out as well, signaling strong activity of buyers. Closing above the warning line (wl1) signals further growth towards the R3 (0.7791) level. 0.7800 could attract the price if it stabilizes above the warning line (wl1). AUD/USD TipsClosing above the warning line (wl1) and retesting it could bring a long opportunity with the target at the R3 (0.7791) level. You should also keep in mind that the rate could increase even without retesting the broken warning line (wl4). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| USD/CAD Price Forecast for December 31, 2020 Posted: 31 Dec 2020 03:16 AM PST
The USD/CAD pair remained depressed through the Asian session and was last seen trading near two-week lows, just below mid-1.2700s.
The pair extended its recent pullback from the levels at just above mid-1.2900s and witnessed some follow-through selling for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. The downtick also marked the fifth day of a negative move in the previous six sessions and was exclusively sponsored by sustained selling surrounding the US dollar. In fact, the USD Index tumbled to fresh multi-year lows amid the prevalent risk-on environment and the likelihood of additional US financial aid. Although the 1.2700 psychological round figure mark acts as key support which restricts short-term USD/CAD declines, further weakness south could be seen. If the quote remains downbeat past 1.2740, it can then face an intermediate halt during the south run to refresh a monthly low near the 1.2700 round figure mark which provides strong support. Meanwhile, 1.2770 guards the immediate upside of USD/CAD. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 31, 2020 Posted: 31 Dec 2020 02:53 AM PST Overview : The GBP/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at 1.3575. Right now, the pair is trading above this level. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the support (1.3575), which is expected to act as a major support today. Therefore, there is a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will move upwards and the structure does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. From this point of view, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3759 followed by 1.3814, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3575 (78% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3575 and 1.3759; so we expect a range of 184 pips from the end of 2020 to the first week of 2021. Consequently, buy above the level of 1.3575 with the first target at 1.3759 so as to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3814. Besides, the level of 1.3814 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top in 2021. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3575, a further decline to 1.3436 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario, which suggests that the pair will stay above the zone of 1.3575. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading plan for EUR/USD on December 31 Posted: 31 Dec 2020 02:48 AM PST
Latest data shows that COVID-19 incidence grew again around the world, recording a total of 719,000 new cases yesterday. In the United States, new infections reached 234,000, while in the UK it was at 50,000. But on the bright side, vaccinations are now active, especially in the US, UK and the EU. In Israel, almost 800,000 have already been vaccinated. The effects of vaccinations should begin to appear as early as mid-January.
EUR/USD - euro continues to climb up in the markets. Open long positions from 1.2190. Open short positions from 1.2180. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 31, 2020 Posted: 31 Dec 2020 02:43 AM PST Overview : The EUR/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 1.2241. Since yesterday, the pair has risen from the level of 1.2241 (the level of 1.2241 coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci) to the top around 1.2310 - closed at 1.2280, current price sets at 1.2284. In consequence, the EUR/USD pair broke resistance at 0.9887, which turned into strong support at the level of 1.2241. In the H1 time frame, the level of 1.2241 is expected to act as major support today. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish market. The price is still above the moving average (100). From this point, we expect the EUR/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 1.2241 towards the target level of 1.2310 (to test it again. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.2310, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2310 so as to reach the second target at 1.2338. We guess that the EUR/USD pair won't pass the spot of 1.2360 - 1.2400 in 2020. At the same time, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the level of 1.2241, the market will decline further to 1.2130 (last bearish wave). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD: US dollar still thinks about a rebound, although the euro ends the year positively Posted: 31 Dec 2020 02:37 AM PST
The US currency temporarily rose in March amid the coronavirus outbreak, however, it lost more than 13% of its value. The USD index reached its lowest point since April 2018, dropping below 90 points. Nevertheless, experts from Commonwealth Bank of Australia said that the launch of COVID-19 immunization campaigns in several countries, as well as additional fiscal support in the United States, reduced the risk of deterioration in the global economy and served as a good tool for improving market sentiment. This continues to be the main obstacle for the US dollar. Many market participants believe that a weak dollar will contribute to the global economic growth and ensure a rally in risky assets next year. However, the future fate of the US currency largely depends on how quickly the economies of Europe and Asia will recover from the coronavirus crisis compared to the United States. Eurozone's preliminary PMI data released earlier in December showed that activity in the currency bloc's manufacturing sector grew faster than expected, while the services sector contracted less than expected. These reports added to optimism that the region's economy is beginning to stabilize, which in turn was a key factor contributing to the recent growth of the single European currency. Meanwhile, IMF experts warn that the economic recovery in the eurozone in 2021 may not meet expectations amid a new wave of coronavirus in the region. They said that if the dynamics of COVID-19 cases does not change significantly in the coming months, then economic activity in the eurozone will recover more slowly than we expected. Slower economic growth is likely to leave deep scars that will negatively affect the economy of the currency bloc in the future.
Amid the US dollar's weakening almost across the entire spectrum of the market, the main currency pair updated the 32-month highs, breaking the level of 1.2300. US stock indices also end the year near their peak levels. According to Sam Stovall of CFRA research, the market is now on autopilot at the end of the year. However, we will be vulnerable in the short term due to the second round of US Senate elections in Georgia. If it turns out that we have two Democrats, that will be enough to force investors to rethink how optimistic they want to be. The fact is that the upcoming January 5 re-election to the US Senate may transfer control of the Upper House of Congress to the Democrats. The latter will promote some of the initiatives by the recently elected, US President Joe Biden, which investors consider as unfriendly to the market, including raising the level of taxation for corporations. In addition, a lot of different statistics for December will be released during the first week of new year. The releases across the US and Europe are likely to be weak, since restrictions were imposed again during the second wave of COVID-19. This could put an end to the prolonged vaccine optimism in the market and provide a fairly oversold dollar with a chance to rebound. Bloomberg analyst, Garfield Reynolds, believes that the breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations, which became a negative factor for the US currency, is now left behind, while the ongoing deterioration of the global epidemiological situation creates prerequisites for the strengthening of the USD. However, he warns that although a noticeable decline in the US currency is expected in the long term, it can suddenly rise in the short term which can surprise the market. If this scenario works out, then we will be able to see the EUR/USD pair decline in January, that is, from its current levels to the level of 1.1800. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading idea for the USD/JPY pair Posted: 31 Dec 2020 02:27 AM PST Yesterday, the USD / JPY pair faced a very interesting situation, which, in our opinion, is caused by the closure of short positions in the market. In that regard, traders can use this as a pivot, in order to take over the sell stops at 103.9. In fact, since the quotes have formed three wave patterns (ABC), where wave "A" is the upward movement observed yesterday, the bulls can open long positions from 103.30-103.50, the target of which is a 50% retracement in the market. The risk for this transaction is 102.950, which is the low reached yesterday. The main target is a breakout from 103.9, but if the quote reaches 103.350, take profit. Price Action and Stop Hunting were used for this trading strategy. Good luck and Happy New Year! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| UK Parliament signs the Brexit trade deal Posted: 31 Dec 2020 02:09 AM PST
The UK Parliament has approved the Brexit trade deal on Wednesday, following the signing of the formal exit of Britain from the EU. Both sides announced that this is a chance to start a new chapter in their relations, and that more than four years of negotiations have finally ended. Now, there is a great opportunity to see nearly $ 1 trillion of annual trade. The EU also stressed that it is very important for the UK and the European Union to look ahead as they open a new chapter in their relationship. And because of this, the pound reached above 1.36 in the market.
At a specially convened session of the parliament, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that he very much hopes to work in tandem with the EU to change the UK economy. Brexit is not just the end, but also the beginning, since the UK has now gained its own sovereignty. Johnson noted that "now, the responsibility falls on all of us, so we must properly use the tools and newfound powers that we acquired." Bill Cash, a Eurosceptic who has worked for a long time in Europe, said that Johnson became the savior of the UK against submission to the EU. Johnson responded to this by saying that he would like to close this long-standing and painful issue of Britain's political relations with the EU, and become its best friend and ally. A year ago, the UK officially left the EU. Now, starting January 1, the new partnership will have to regulate all kinds of trade relations. The deal will take effect until the end of February, until the European Parliament finally approves it and makes it permanent. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 31 Dec 2020 02:02 AM PST Bitcoin is traded lower at the $28,819 level after reaching the $29,321 historical high. The price was expected to increase after its failure to close again under the $26,000 psychological level. I've told you in my previous analysis Bitcoin Goes For New All-Time Highs that BTC/USD should climb higher as long it stays above the uptrend line, after its temporary decline. The price is strongly bullish and it could pass above the $30,000 psychological level soon. Bitcoin Registered A New All-Time High!
BTC/USD has found temporary resistance at the R1 (29,125) level but most likely it will take out this static obstacle and will approach and reach fresh new highs. Closing above the R1 and beyond the $29,321 all-time high indicates further growth, more gains towards the R2 (31,999) level. If you remember, I've said in my previous analysis that we may have sharp growth after its failure to reach and retest the Pivot Point ($25,526) level and the minor black uptrend line. ForecastTechnically, BTC/USD is strongly bullish and it could approach and reach fresh new highs. It could register only minor retreats, before jumping higher as long as it stays above the minor uptrend line. Closing above the $29,321 could represent a buying signal, the R2 ($31,999) could be used as an upside target. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading recommendations for starters on GBP/USD and EUR/USD for December 31, 2020 Posted: 31 Dec 2020 01:51 AM PST November's pending sales in the US real estate market was the only released data yesterday, where they forecasted a growth of 0.2%, but a decline of -2.6% was recorded instead. Moreover, there was a decline from 20.2% to 16.4% in annual terms. It is possible that the statistics affected the US dollar rate, but there is an assumption that the main driver for the weak dollar was speculation on it. Also yesterday, there was outrage about the health system of the United States, where intriguing headlines in the media said that the national vaccination program completely failed, despite the catastrophic situation with coronavirus. Such headlines provoke speculators to sell the dollar. What happened on the trading charts? The pound updated the local high on the wave of the upward movement. This turns out to be at the level of 1.3650, without reducing buyers' interest. Such a high degree of overbought does not stop speculators, but it is worth considering that the area of 1.1650/1.1700 has served as a resistance throughout history, which may well affect the volume of long positions (buy positions). In turn, the Euro did not lag behind its counterpart in the market, which also updated the local high of the medium-term upward trend. Considering the latest movement, the quote reached the level of 1.2309, and this already reflects the lower limit of the 2018 side channel – 1.2300/1.2500.
Trading recommendation for GBP/USD on December 31 US unemployment benefits are expected to be released for today's economic calendar. However, everything about it is not pleasant. Initial applications are predicted to rise from 803 thousand to 815 thousand, which is quite reasonable. Repeated applications for benefits can please traders with a decline from 5,337 thousand to 5,290 thousand. It is noteworthy that there is a shorter working day today at all major stock exchanges. Thus, trading volumes may be reduced, which will affect the volatility in the market. As for price movements, it was previously mentioned that the quote reached the resistance area of 1.3650/1.3700, which can negatively affect the volume of long positions. In connection with the early closing, it is not excluded that the quotes will slow down, expressed in amplitude along the resistance area. Traders will consider a following upward movement if the price is maintained above the level of 1.3700 in a four hour time frame.
Trading recommendation for EUR/USD on December 31 Statistical data is not expected to be published in Europe and Britain today. The impulse represented by Germany will also not also work today, since it is New Year's Eve. In this case, trading volumes will be reduced and trading can be boring. Analyzing the current trading chart, it can be seen that the quote moves within the local high of the medium-term upward trend, where market participants feel pressured due to the high degree of overbought of the single currency. We can assume that the 2018 flat range of 1.2300/1.2500 will eventually affect the volume of long positions and a massive correction for the euro will occur in the market.
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| Posted: 31 Dec 2020 01:34 AM PST The sharp decline of the US dollar today has affected all trading instruments, including gold. Now, since most sell stops are placed at 1900, gold bulls can build up long positions in the market, in order to raise the price of gold. In particular, since the quotes have already formed three wave patterns (ABC), where wave "A" is the upward movement observed yesterday, traders could set up buy positions from the 50% retracement level, and then take profit as soon as the quote breaks out of 1900. The risk for this transaction is the low reached yesterday. Of course, traders have to monitor and control the risks to avoid losing money. Trading is very precarious, but also very profitable as long as you use the right approach. Price Action and Stop Hunting were used for this strategy. Good luck and Happy New Year! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on December 31, 2020 Posted: 31 Dec 2020 01:28 AM PST As already noted the day before, the main currency pair of the Forex market ends 2020 with strong growth. The outgoing year was very unusual and difficult, as the world was covered by the COVID-19 pandemic, which dealt a serious blow to the global economy. In this regard, the world's leading central banks were forced to resort to the introduction of ultra-soft monetary policy, based on the support of their economies from the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic. However, the German Bundesbank stands out in this row, the chairman of which said yesterday that one should not expect eternally low-interest rates. It should be noted that the head of the Bank of Germany, Jens Weidmann, is a typical "hawk" and has always advocated tightening monetary policy. If we return to the topic of coronavirus, then Europe, and especially the United States, suffered the most severe losses in terms of mortality from the pandemic. For example, in Italy, more than 73,500 people have died since the start of COVID-19. For such a relatively small country, the figure is more than serious. Daily
If we turn to the technical picture for EUR/USD, then at yesterday's trading, the euro bulls finally managed to break through the strong resistance of sellers at 1.2272 and end the session on December 30 above this mark. During the growth in yesterday's trading, the pair reached the previously designated target and showed highs at 1.2309, however, it could not gain a foothold and closed the day at 1.2296. However, this is already a serious achievement for players to increase the rate. Now, as already noted, the euro bulls need to overcome the strong technical zone of 1.2300-1.2320 and close today's trading and the entire current year higher. With this development, the road will open to a strong and important price area of 1.2460-1.2520. In the event of a breakthrough of a significant technical and psychological level of 1.2500, it will be possible to count on the subsequent growth of the single European currency. However, if this happens, it will be next year. In the meantime, today the US dollar continues to lose its position on a wide range of currencies. This factor was influenced by the loss of Donald Trump in the presidential election and the election of Joe Biden, as well as the adoption of a new $ 900 billion program in the United States to support the world's leading economy. Rapid vaccination of the population against COVID-19 also plays an important role in the positive mood on global trading platforms. In some leading world powers, this process has already started, however, it will take time to vaccinate about 70% of the inhabitants of a particular country to develop collective immunity to the coronavirus. In general, the world is optimistic about the New Year and hopes that it will not be as difficult as the outgoing year. Since today is December 31, on the eve of the New Year, I will not give any clear trading recommendations, besides, the market closes earlier than usual today, and tomorrow it does not work at all. The only thing that I would like to recommend is closing all open positions (who have them) before the end of today's trading. According to long-term observations, trading on January 2 opens with price gaps, which can be quite significant, so do not take any risks. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Fractal analysis for major pairs on December 31 Posted: 31 Dec 2020 01:22 AM PST Outlook on December 31: Analytical overview of major pairs on the H1 TF:
The key levels for the euro/dollar pair are 1.2424, 1.2380, 1.2347, 1.2299, 1.2260, 1.2235 and 1.2207. The development of the formation of the ascending trend from December 21 is being followed here. Therefore, the upward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 1.2300. In this case, the target is 1.2347. On the other hand, there is a short-term growth and consolidation in the range of 1.2347 - 1.2380. We consider the level of 1.2424 as a potential upward target. Upon reaching which, price consolidation and downward pullback can be expected. Short-term decline, in turn, is possible in the range of 1.2260 - 1.2235. If the last value breaks down, a deep correction will occur. Here, the target is 1.2207, which is the upward key support level. The main trend is the upward trend from December 21 Trading recommendations: Buy: 1.2300 Take profit: 1.2345 Buy: 1.2350 Take profit: 1.2380 Sell: 1.2260 Take profit: 1.2237 Sell: 1.2233 Take profit: 1.2208
The key levels for the pound/dollar pair are 1.3921, 1.3809, 1.3731, 1.3612, 1.3561 and 1.3471. Here, we are following the upward trend from December 21. Currently, a movement to the level of 1.3731 is expected. In this case, short-term growth and consolidation are in the range of 1.3731 - 1.3809. On the other hand, we consider the level of 1.3921 to be an upward potential target. Upon reaching which, a downward pullback can be expected. Meanwhile, short-term decline is expected in the range of 1.3612 - 1.3561. If the last value breaks down, a deep correction will occur. Here, the potential target is 1.3471. The main trend is the upward trend of December 21 Trading recommendations: Buy: 1.3614 Take profit: 1.3730 Buy: 1.3733 Take profit: 1.3808 Sell: 1.3611 Take profit: 1.3562 Sell: 1.3560 Take profit: 1.3471
The key levels for the dollar/franc pair are 0.8865, 0.8846, 0.8830, 0.8793, 0.8774, 0.8747 and 0.8732. The downward trend from December 28 is carefully monitored here. So, a short-term decline is expected in the range of 0.8793 - 0.8774. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a strong decline. The target here is 0.8747. For the potential next downward target, the level of 0.8732 is considered. Upon reaching which, price consolidation and upward pullback are possible. On another note, short-term growth is possible in the range of 0.8830 - 0.8846. In case that the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. The next potential target is 0.8865, which is the key support level for the downward trend. The main trend is the downward trend from December 28 Trading recommendations: Buy: 0.8830 Take profit: 0.8845 Buy: 0.8847 Take profit: 0.8865 Sell: 0.8793 Take profit: 0.8775 Sell: 0.8773 Take profit: 0.8747
The key levels for the dollar/yen are 103.59, 103.36, 103.22, 102.93, 102.76, 102.62, 102.24 and 102.00. The downward trend from December 28 is being considered as a medium-term. Thus, the downward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 102.93. In this case, the target is 102.76. The price overcoming the noise range of 102.76 - 102.62 should be accompanied by a strong decline. The next target is 102.24. For the potential downward target, we consider the level 102.00. Upon reaching which, price consolidation and upward pullback are expected. Short-term growth is expected in the range of 103.22 - 103.36. If the last value breaks down, a deep correction will occur. Here, the target is 103.59, which is the key support level for the downward trend from December 28. The main trend is the formation of potential medium-term for the low from December 28 Trading recommendations: Buy: 103.36 Take profit: 103.58 Buy: 103.61 Take profit: 103.90 Sell: 102.93 Take profit: 102.76 Sell: 103.62 Take profit: 102.25
The key levels for the USD/CAD pair are 1.2834, 1.2795, 1.2771, 1.2731, 1.2689, 1.2671 and 1.2626. We are following the downward trend from December 22 here. Against this background, the downward movement is expected after the level of 1.2731 breaks down. In this case, the target is 1.2689. In connection to this, there is a short-term decline and consolidation in the range of 1.2689 - 1.2671. For the potential downward target, we consider the level of 1.2626. Upon reaching which, an upward pullback can be expected. A short-term growth, on the contrary, is expected in the range of 1.2771 - 1.2795. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to the potential target - 1.2834. The main trend is the downward trend from December 22 Trading recommendations: Buy: 1.2771 Take profit: 1.2795 Buy: 1.2797 Take profit: 1.2834 Sell: 1.2730 Take profit: 1.2690 Sell: 1.2670 Take profit: 1.2627
The key levels for the AUD/USD pair are 0.7824, 0.7793, 0.7743, 0.7706, 0.7683, 0.7657 and 0.7614. Here, we are following the upward trend from December 21. Now, the upward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 0.7743. In this case, the target is 0.7793. This will be followed by a potential upward target, which is the level of 0.7824. Upon reaching which, price consolidation and downward pullback can be expected. In turn, short-term decline is expected in the range of 0.7706 - 0.7683. If the last value breaks down, it will allow us to move to the next level of 0.7657. Its breakdown will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.7614, which is the key support level above. The main trend is the upward trend of December 21 Trading recommendations: Buy: 0.7745 Take profit: 0.7791 Buy: 0.7793 Take profit: 0.7824 Sell: 0.7683 Take profit: 0.7658 Sell: 0.7655 Take profit: 0.7615
The key levels for the euro/yen pair are 127.80, 127.51, 127.30, 126.99, 126.69, 126.53 and 126.29. Here, we are following the formation of the upward trend from December 23. Due to this, the upward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 126.99. In this case, the target is 127.30. Meanwhile, short-term growth and consolidation are in the range of 127.30 - 127.51. If the last value breaks down, it will allow us to count on a movement towards a potential target – 127.80. Upon reaching which, price consolidation and downward pullback can be expected. On the other hand, short-term decline is expected in the range of 126.69 - 126.53. If the last value breaks down, a deep correction will occur. Here, the target is 126.29, which is the upward key support level. The main trend is the upward trend from December 23 Trading recommendations: Buy: 127.00 Take profit: 127.30 Buy: 127.33 Take profit: 127.50 Sell: 126.69 Take profit: 126.54 Sell: 126.51 Take profit: 126.30
The key levels for the pound/yen pair are 143.04, 142.10, 141.41, 140.69, 139.63 and 138.88. The development of the upward trend from December 21 is being followed here. Therefore, the upward movement is expected to continue after breaking through the level of 140.69. In this case, the first target is 141.41. On the other hand, short-term upward movement and consolidation are in the range of 141.41 - 142.10. As a potential upward target, we consider the level 143.04. Upon reaching which, price consolidation and downward pullback can be expected. Short-term decline, in turn, is expected in the range of 139.63 - 138.88, wherein a key upward reversal is expected. If the last value breaks down, it will be conducive to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the targets will be determined from the initial conditions on December 24. The main trend is the upward trend of December 21, correction stage Trading recommendations: Buy: 140.70 Take profit: 141.40 Buy: 141.43 Take profit: 142.10 Sell: 139.61 Take profit: 138.90 Sell: Take profit: The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Indicator analysis. Daily review for the EUR / USD pair on December 31 Posted: 31 Dec 2020 01:09 AM PST EUR / USD climbed up on Wednesday, moving above 1.2275 (yellow dashed line), which is also the 85.4% retracement level. Today, there is a high chance that this bullish move will continue, however, it would only be inside a narrow sideways channel, since markets are closed in many countries due to the New Year celebration. Trend analysis (Fig. 1) Today, the euro may jump from 1.2296 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.2346 (black dotted line), which is also the upper border of the Bollinger line. And, after testing this level, there is a chance that the bears will work for a pullback, the target of which is 1.2275 (yellow dashed line) or the 85.4% retracement level.
Figure: 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up; - Fibonacci levels - up; - Volumes - up; - Candlestick analysis - down; - Trend analysis - up; - Bollinger lines - up; - Weekly chart - up. General conclusion: The euro may move from 1.2296 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.2346 (black dotted line) today, which is also the upper border of the Bollinger line. And after the quote tests this level, the bears may work for a pullback to 1.2275 (yellow dashed line), which is also the 85.4% retracement level. Alternative scenario: price may drop from 1.2296 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) to 1.2234 (blue dashed line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 31 Dec 2020 12:58 AM PST GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued the growth process on December 30 and closed above the level of 1.3618. Thus, the growth process can now be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 261.8% (1.3698). Bull traders are once again in a state of euphoria. Brexit is finally over. The UK Parliament voted for the trade deal bill yesterday and passed it almost unanimously. 521 deputies are in favor of the deal and only 73 of them are against it. Boris Johnson himself and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed a trade agreement remotely yesterday. "Brexit is not the end, but the beginning of something new. Now we have a great responsibility: to make the best use of the power and the tools that we have once again got on our hands," Boris Johnson said. Thus, the Brexit saga can officially be considered complete. Traders will now be keeping a close eye on how Boris Johnson will "lift the UK off its knees". Many analysts are very skeptical about this. Britain may benefit from its independence in the long run, but economists expect more cuts in the British economy in the coming quarters. Even though a free trade agreement has been concluded. GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the British currency and continued the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3701). The rebound of quotes from this Fibo level will work in favor of the US currency and the beginning of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3481). Fixing the pair's rate above the level of 127.2% will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3977). GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the second downward trend line. A rebound from it in the long term will mean a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a long fall in the British dollar's quotes. Overview of fundamentals: There were no economic reports or other developments in the UK and the US on Wednesday. The information background was completely absent. Except for the pompous news regarding the signing of a trade deal. The economic calendar for the US and the UK: US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (13:30 GMT). On December 31, the calendar of economic events in the UK and the US are almost empty. The information background will be absent today. COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that speculators were getting rid of both long and short contracts. The new COT report, which was released only last night, showed only small changes in the mood of major traders. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened in the reporting week until December 21 - 2,000 new long contracts and 500 short contracts. Such figures do not allow us to draw any serious conclusions about the future of the British pound. It can be noted that speculators again increased purchases of the British, but this was already 8 days ago. The total number of long contracts focused on the hands of speculators is only 8,000 more than short contracts. For example, the difference in the euro currency is 3 times. Thus, I still can not conclude that the mood for the British is exclusively "bullish" and that the pound will continue to grow. GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to open new purchases of the British dollar in case of consolidation above the level of 1.3618 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3698 and 1.3800. I recommend selling the pound at a rebound from the corrective level of 127.2% on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.3618 and 1.3499. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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