Forex analysis review |
- Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on January 8. COT report. Analysis of Thursday. Recommendations for Friday
- Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on January 8. COT report. Analysis of Thursday. Recommendations for Friday
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on January 8? Analysis of Thursday. Getting ready for Friday
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on January 8? Analysis of Thursday. Getting ready for Friday
- EUR/JPY Extends Its Uptrend!
- Oil prices jumped amid news confirming Biden's presidency
- USD/JPY Reversed As Expected!
- Elliott wave analysis of DAX Index for January 7, 2021
- GOLD Price Analysis for 7 January, 2020
- January 7, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- January 7, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- January 7, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.
- Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 7, 2020
- Trading Signal for GBP/USD for January 07 - 08, 2021: Strong Support At 1.3549
- BTC analysis for January 07,.2021 - BTC is aproaching our first upside target at $19.530. Chance for test of $19.880
- Analysis of Gold for January 07,.2021 - Potential for the upside movement towards $1.927 and $1.955
- EUR/USD analysis for January 07 2021 - Potential completion of the bigger ABC correction and space for upside continuation
- Trading Signal for EUR/USD for January 07 - 08, 2021: Strong Resistance At 1.2312
- Gold bulls defend $1,900
- Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EURUSD
- Potential bounce to 0.8970-0.8980 for USDCHF
- Democrats seized control of the Senate. Congress confirms Joe Biden as President of the United States
- Global stock markets ignored the storming of the Capitol in Washington
- US dollar maintained its downward trend
- Trading plan for EURUSD for January 07, 2021
| Posted: 07 Jan 2021 06:27 PM PST GBP/USD 15M Both linear regression channels turned to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe. However, the downward movement is not that strong. Yesterday, the US dollar managed to win back around 80 points. Thus, a consolidation below and a rebound from the Kijun-sen line is good for the bears, but they are in no hurry to take advantage of the bulls' chances. GBP/USD 1H The GBP/USD pair resumed a slight downward movement on Thursday after rebounding from the critical Kijun-sen line. The strength of this downward movement eloquently reflects the mood of traders. Very few people still want to sell the pound and buy the dollar. Therefore, in general, an upward trend is still present on higher timeframes. There is still a descending channel on the hourly timeframe, which allows us to expect that the downward movement will continue by another 50-100 points. Such a decline in the pound already seems to be something quite extraordinary in the current environment. Although we still believe that the fundamental background is not on the pound's side and its growth in recent months is very difficult to explain. However, growth can be speculative. As we have mentioned, any hypothesis needs specific technical support. If they are not there, therefore, the hypothesis has not yet been confirmed. The most difficult thing in the current situation is to understand when the movement can increase, and when to change direction. As the foundation and macroeconomics continue to be ignored, we are deprived of a very powerful analytical tool. COT report The GBP/USD pair fell by 15 points during the last reporting week (December 22-28). Despite the fact that around 300 points were passed from low to high during these four trading days. Thus, first of all, we can conclude that the upward trend is still present for the pound. Secondly, there are minimal price changes. A new Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that professional traders closed both Buy (longs) and Sell (shorts) contracts. In general, there are minimal changes in the number of open/closed contracts for large traders on the pound in recent months. During the reporting week, a group of non-commercial traders closed 1,640 Buy-contracts and 296 Sell-contracts. Thus, this group of traders became a little more bearish. We can clearly see what is happening among large traders through the two indicators in the chart. The first shows regular changes in the direction of movement of the green and red lines for at least four months. That is, to put it simply, professional traders cannot decide what to do in the long term. We are increasingly inclined to believe that it is not the pound that is getting more expensive, but that the dollar is getting cheaper. Thus, almost everything depends on the demand for the dollar, and not on the actions of large traders on the pound or euro. The second indicator shows that the net position has become bullish for professional traders, but has stopped growing. Thus, according to the latest COT report, we can conclude that non-commercial traders are not too eager for new purchases of the pound. The fundamentals for the British currency have recently been extremely weak. The events in Washington cannot be called joyful either. Nevertheless, the dollar began to rise in price as soon as Donald Trump's supporters attempted to seize the Capitol and were immediately defeated by the special services. Thus, we still conclude that the entire foundation is ignored. The pair's movements from yesterday can in no way be connected with what is happening in the world. It is also impossible to make an unambiguous conclusion that the pound has slightly decreased due to the lockdown in the UK or the general negative fundamental background. The US ISM business activity index for the services sector was published, which exceeded the forecast values and reached 57.2, but when have the markets reacted to business activity? No major events or reports scheduled in the UK on Friday. Important data will come out in the United States. We don't even want to draw the attention of traders to unemployment and wage rates. We suggest focusing exclusively on the NonFarm Payrolls indicator. If the markets trade based on the meaning of this report, then it would indeed be possible to conclude that the correlation between the foundation and the movements in the market is slowly returning. It is expected that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector will be between 70-110,000. Thus, any reading below this range should cause the dollar to fall. Above is further strengthening. We have two trading ideas for January 8: 1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair refuse to let the bears go down further, but still the quotes may continue to sluggishly fall. Thus, if buyers manage to get the pair above the new descending channel, then we recommend buying the pound again while aiming for the resistance level of 1.3753. Take Profit in this case will be up to 90 points. 2) Sellers seem to have seized the initiative in the market, but so far they cannot form a clear downward trend, the price is constantly moving back up. Thus, we recommend selling the pound/dollar pair with targets at the support level of 1.3496 and the Senkou Span B line (1.3445) if the pair rebounds from the Kijun-sen line (1.3620) (again) or to keep the shorts open after the previous rebound from this line. Take Profit in this case can range from 40 to 90 points. Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD Explanations for illustrations: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2021 06:25 PM PST EUR/USD 15M Both linear regression channels turned to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, but this does not provide any clarity at all. The price ignores strong lines and areas, generates false signals, therefore trading at this time is associated with increased risks. EUR/USD 1H The EUR/USD pair resumed its downward movement on the hourly timeframe on January 7, afterwards, it fell to the lower line of the long-term rising channel at the end of the day. Formally, the price even rebounded off this line, although the chart does not show that it reached the line. However, the channel is long-term. There may be slight inaccuracies in these time frames. Thus, for now, we believe that the rebound from the lower channel line is complete. The question is, what will traders do with this rebound? Do the bulls have the desire and strength to start a new round of longs on the euro, which still looks completely unfounded? Or will the price settle below the channel and start creating a more logical downward trend? Or will it just start flat? All these questions are now quite difficult to answer. In our fundamental analysis, we have already said that it is very difficult to analyze what is happening in the market now. The pair is moving randomly. Thus, we advise you to be careful and use only strong and clear signals. It is better to open fewer trades than to receive unnecessary losses. COT report The EUR/USD pair fell by 30 points during the last reporting week (December 22-28). Minimal price changes, however, the EUR/USD pair has been steadily moving up in recent weeks, but at a slow pace. Thus, it was not necessary to hope for serious changes in the mood of professional traders. On the eve of the New Year, a group of non-commercial traders closed 57 Buy-contracts (longs) and opened 1,660 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, formally, their mood became more bearish, but in fact, the net position of this category of traders decreased by only 1,600 contracts. For comparison, the total number of contracts for this group of traders is 340,000. Thus, changes by 1,500 are scanty. In general, the bullish sentiment remains. A few weeks ago professional traders were actively reducing their net position and we concluded that a new downward trend was on the way. However, the demand for the dollar was so low in the foreign exchange market that the downward trend did not start for the euro, and non-commercial traders began to increase the number of longs again. For the last two weeks, no conclusions can be drawn at all about the change in their mood. Indicators also do not help much in this situation, since the changes are minimal. The green and red lines of the first indicator no longer move towards each other, but they are not moving away either. The second indicator shows that the net position of non-commercial traders decreased in the long term, but it is not significant and has stopped in the last month and a half. The European Union published a rather important inflation indicator for December. The consumer price index remained unchanged in annual terms and is equal to -0.3%. Thus, deflation remains in the European Union, which is not least associated with the euro's strongest growth in the last nine months. Thus, one can even conclude that such low inflation is artificial. However, it still has a negative impact on the economy. Central banks have been aiming for 2% inflation for over a long period of time, and there is a reason behind this. This kind of inflation ensures the most stable economic growth. Now in the European Union, since the euro is too expensive, export volumes are falling, which negatively affects income and GDP. The EU retail trade for November was also released, which unexpectedly fell by as much as 6.1% on a monthly basis. Thus, the latest EU reports were weak and the euro was also falling that day! Did the impossible happen and the markets worked out the macroeconomic data? Today, the European Union will publish the unemployment rate for November, which may rise to 8.5%. Take note that the unemployment rate in the EU continues to grow, while it has been decreasing in America for months now. However, the US will publish much more important reports in the afternoon, the unemployment rate, as well as NonFarm Payrolls and data on changes in wages. Of course, the NonFarm Payrolls report will be the top priority today. We have two trading ideas for January 8: 1) Buyers keep the initiative in their hands. They manage to keep the pair inside the rising channel, so chances of resuming the upward movement are still preserved. You are advised to open new long positions in case the price rebounds from the lower channel line (one can say, it is fulfilled) or when it surpasses the 1.2295-1.2311 area, while aiming for the resistance level of 1.2365. Take Profit in this case can be up to 90 points. However, take note that the pair's movements are currently unstable. 2) Bears remain very weak at this time and cannot yet gain a foothold below the rising channel. Thus, you are advised to open short positions if the bears manage to overcome the lower line of the rising channel with targets at the support levels 1.2162 and 1.2107, not earlier. Take Profit in this case can range from 60 to 120 points. Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD Explanations for illustrations: Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one. Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off. Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns. Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders. Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2021 02:02 PM PST Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair tried to resume the downward movement on Thursday, January 7, however, it changed direction several times during the day. Each change ended with a reversal of the MACD indicator. That is, the MACD indicator has generated two sell signals in a day, each of which cannot be considered false, but neither of them brought any profit. Thus, the situation is as follows: there is a downward trend, but it is rather uncertain. There is a descending channel, but rather weak. At the moment, the pound/dollar pair has failed to overcome the support level of 1.3538, from which it had already rebounded earlier. Thus, novice traders can wait for a more favorable time to open positions. By and large, there is nothing to do now. You can trade on a decline, and this requires new strong signals from the MACD. The signals that were created today could not be worked out, since they were created slightly below the zero level. Thus, for a new signal, we recommend waiting for the indicator to discharge properly. Fundamentally, everything remains difficult for the British pound. We cannot say that traders have started to work out macroeconomic statistics. Market participants have long been ignoring the fundamental background. And events of a political nature in the United States unexpectedly supported the dollar. However, this may be a simple coincidence. In Britain, epidemiological problems are now in first place, but they also do not find their reflection on the pair's graph. Therefore, for now, beginners can only pay attention to the technical picture. No major UK releases scheduled for Friday, January 8. Therefore, you should focus on America, where a rather important report on NonFarm Payrolls will be released. We believe that all other publications will not have any impact on the pair's movement. The NonFarm Payrolls report may not work either. For example, if the actual value is as close as possible to the forecast. There will be nothing more to pay attention to on the last trading day of the week. Possible scenarios for January 8: 1) Buy orders have lost their relevance, since there is a downward trend and a descending channel has appeared. Thus, in order to be able to consider long positions, you should wait until the pair's quotes settle above the descending channel. In this case, long positions can be opened with targets at 1.3671 and 1.3737. However, this scenario is not expected until Friday morning. 2) Sell positions are relevant at this time, but today, for example, two semi-weak, semi-false signals were created. Thus, we now recommend waiting for the MACD indicator to discharge to the zero level and only after that, if the quotes remain inside the descending channel, wait for a new sell signal to appear and reopen short positions with targets at 1.3538 and 1.3471. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2021 02:02 PM PST Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair started a downward movement last night in accordance with the signal that was created that night. We wrote about this MACD sell signal in our morning article. We advised you to work it out, but at your own peril and risk, since the previous signals were false, and in general, now it is far from the most beautiful trade. Nevertheless, this signal was processed with interest. The first target at 1.2278 was reached in the morning, and now the pair can continue to fall to the second target of 1.2231. As usual, we do not recommend you to keep a profitable deal to the bitter end. There is profit - great, you can close the deal and go to bed. Moreover, those who opened a deal exactly on the signal are now in profit of about 65-70 points. Those who joined in the morning are in profit of over 50 points. From our point of view, this is a very good result. In general, the downward trend continues for the EUR/USD pair after it surpassed the rising trend line. Thus, the trading strategy for Friday is outrageously simple: we are waiting for an upward rollback and a new sell signal. The EU released its inflation data for December, while the US released the ISM service sector PMI for December. The first report was a failure for the sixth consecutive month, as it recorded a negative value of inflation. Simply put, prices in the European Union fell by 0.3% compared to December 2019. The US ISM index, on the contrary, exceeded the forecasted value and, moreover, quite strongly. In addition to these reports, the less important retail sales in the EU was also published, which also failed. Thus, for the first time in a long time, we can conclude that the markets have worked out macroeconomic reports. We can only hope that this is not a coincidence. No important data in the European Union on Friday, January 8, but a very important report will be published in America. We deliberately omit the unemployment and wages reports, as although important, they rarely affect price movements. But the NonFarm Payrolls report, which shows how many jobs outside agriculture were created during the reporting period, is of great importance. Therefore, we advise you to focus on it. The forecast is +70-110,000. Any value higher will help the dollar, lower will create pressure on it. Possible scenarios on January 8: 1) Long positions are no longer relevant at the moment, since the trend line was crossed. Thus, those who wish to buy the EUR/USD pair on such a market should wait for a new upward trend. So far, such a scenario is not expected on Friday. 2) Trading for a fall is more relevant, since buyers did not keep the pair above the trend line. Thus, you are advised to open new short positions while aiming for support levels of 1.2231 and 1.2195 (will be revised in the morning) if a new MACD sell signal is generated, which will be discharged to a zero level or so before that. However, you should remember that many signals are false right now, and it is not the most favorable time to trade. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2021 07:53 AM PST
EUR/JPY is traded at 127.38 level and is expected to approach and reach fresh new highs after passing above 127.12 former high, static resistance. The rate has failed to retest the uptrend line signaling strong buyers and a sharp upside momentum. The outlook will remain bullish as long as the price stays above the uptrend line. As you can see on the H4 chart, EUR/JPY has consolidated in the short term, its sideways movement has attracted more buyers. Trading Conclusion!The breakout above the 127.12 level represented a bullish signal, a buying opportunity. The 128.00 is seen as the next upside target. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Oil prices jumped amid news confirming Biden's presidency Posted: 07 Jan 2021 07:41 AM PST Oil prices rise on Thursday afternoon which was influenced mainly by news from the United States confirming Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election. Also, support for black gold quotes continues to be provided by recent news about the reduction of oil energy reserves in the US. The price of March futures for North Sea Brent crude oil rose by 0.29% to $54.46 per barrel. At the time of writing this article, this indicator has slightly adjusted to the level of $54.2 According to the data released, commercial oil reserves in the United States decreased by about 8 million barrels to 485.5 million barrels for the past week. Analysts clearly did not expect such indicators, because the day before, they predicted a decrease of only 2.1 million barrels. At the same time, the production of black gold for the fourth week in a row remains at the level of 11 million barrels per day. Investors' optimism is fueled by news from the United States that Congress continued its meeting this morning and still approved the election of Joe Biden as the new president of the United States. And although this news is very optimistic and sets investors up for risky decision-making, do not forget about the continuing growth of gasoline and distillers stocks, that is, the existing glut of the market with oil and petroleum products. Investors seem not to notice this fact and focus on the efforts of OPEC+. The monitoring committee of the alliance was able to determine the parameters of the deal, according to which the current terms of the agreement are extended for almost all countries for two months in advance. And Saudi Arabia and some other members of the committee decided to further reduce energy production. Only Russia and Kazakhstan were able to increase oil production in February and March. This encouraging fact, as well as Joe Biden's presidency, promises to give the markets a long-awaited relief. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2021 07:35 AM PST USD/JPY has finally turned to the upside signaling that the downside movement is finished. Is traded at 103.77 level at the time of writing and it seems determined to hit new highs in the upcoming hours. The USD has managed to rebound even if the United States ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was reported at -123K in December. The pair will jump way higher if the JP225 and the USDX will increase. Today, the greenback received support from the Unemployment Claims and from the ISM Services PMI indicators. The economic data has beaten expectations, so USD could continue to appreciate ahead of the NFP. USD/JPY Larger Rebound?
USD/JPY has rebounded from the Falling Wedge's downside line and now is pressuring the R1 (103.77) level. The rate has recovered after the last downside movement. Still, only a valid breakout above the downtrend line will really validate a broader growth. Confirming the Falling Wedge pattern makes USD/JPY very attractive for buyers. Closing and stabilizing above the downtrend line indicate a bullish reversal, swing higher. Forecast!Buy USD/JPY after a valid breakout (close, retest) above the downtrend line and through the lower median line (lml) of the ascending pitchfork. The median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork could be used as an upside target. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Elliott wave analysis of DAX Index for January 7, 2021 Posted: 07 Jan 2021 07:23 AM PST
The German DAX index could be peaking near 13,989. The DAX Index has rallied strongly March 2009 and the wave count suggest a major top could be nearby. A break below minor support at 13,438 will be a good indication that the DAX Index has peaked, while a break below support at 13,009 will confirm the peak and call for a strong decline to at least 9,425 and likely lower to strong support at 8,000. That said, we also need to stress, that as long as minor support at 13,438 is able to protect the downside as long will the underlying uptrend remain in place and could force the uptrend higher towards 14,620 as the next upside target, but the potential upside should be limited from here. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GOLD Price Analysis for 7 January, 2020 Posted: 07 Jan 2021 07:12 AM PST
Gold has been whipsawed, failing to hold onto gains through the mid-European session and was last seen trading in the neutral territory, around the $1,915 region. But the yellow metal is set to test the November high at $1,965.84 ahead of the September high at $1,973.8 A solid US dollar rebound from the lowest level in nearly three years was seen as one of the key factors that prompted some fresh selling of Gold. Prospects for a more aggressive US fiscal spending in 2021 increased further following the Democratic sweep in the crucial US Senate runoff elections in the state of Georgia From the one hand, it is likely that yellow metal could gain support from the critical round figure mark near $1,900 which coincides with the breakout area of a 5-month old bearish descending channel and extend gains against the US Dollar in the short term. Failure to break $1,900 could open doorways to next barrier which resides at $1,960 and followed by psychological level at $2,000 which coincides with fibonacci expansion 161.8%. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| January 7, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 07 Jan 2021 06:47 AM PST
The EURUSD pair was trapped below the previous key-level (1.2000) until bullish breakout occured to the upside recently in December. Further quick bullish advancement was expressed towards 1.2150 just as expected after failing to find sufficient bearish pressure at retesting of the backside of the broken channel around 1.1970-1.2000 which corresponds roughly to Fibonacci Level of 0%. Recently, the pair looked overbought while approaching the price levels of 1.2250 (138% Fibonacci Level). That's why, conservative traders were advised to look either for SELL Positions or low risk BUY trades around lower price levels. Bearish closure and persistence below 1.2160 then 1.2000 is needed to abort the ongoing bullish momentum to initiate a bearish movement at least towards 1.1860 and 1.1770. However, the intermediate-outlook for the pair remained bullish towards 1.2330 where 150% Fibonacci Level is located. This is where an Intraday SELL Entry was offered as expected in Yesterday's article. Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the price zone around 1.2000-1.1975. This price zone stands as a Demand Zone to offer bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| January 7, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 07 Jan 2021 06:43 AM PST
In December, the price levels of (1.3380-1.3400) have prevented further bullish movement for a few weeks.Bearish target was projected towards 1.3300. However, the pair has failed to pursue towards lower targets. Instead, a bullish spike was expressed towards 1.3480-1.3500 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel has previously provided temporary bearish pressure on the pair. Shortly after, another bullish spike has recently been demonstrated towards 1.3600 where the upper limit applied considerable bearish rejection again.Recently, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought while consolidating above the key-level of 1.3400. As expected, bearish reversal was recently initiated around 1.3600. A quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.3200. Intermediate-term outlook could turn into bearish if only the EUR/USD pair could maintain movement below 1.3400. However, the pair has failed to maintain bearish decline below 1.3200.Instead, bullish persistence above 1.3400 invalidated the bearish scenario for the short-term. Another temporary bullish movement is being expressed towards 1.3700 (the channel's upper limit) where bearish rejection and a possible SELL Entry can be anticipated. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| January 7, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations. Posted: 07 Jan 2021 06:43 AM PST
By the end of November, Signs of BUYING Pressure have been initiated around the depicted price zone of 1.1800-1.1840. Shortly after, the EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a quick upside movement.The pair has targeted the price levels around 1.1990 initially which exerted considerable bearish pressure bringing the pair back towards 1.1920 which constituted a temporary KEY-Zone for the EUR/USD pair. That's why, another episode of upside movement was expressed towards 1.2160 where a false breakout above the price level of 1.2200 was regarded as a considerable bearish reversal signal. Three weeks ago, a short-term reversal pattern has been demonstrated around 1.2265. Intraday downside retracement to the downside was expected to occur. However, the EUR/USD pair has failed to pursue towards lower price levels. Instead, the pair has spiked above the depicted Weekly HIGH around 1.2270 before the current bearish rejection was initiated around 1.2350. Bearish closure below the mentioned price zone of 1.2250 - 1.2200 is needed to turn the intermediate outlook for the pair into bearish and enhance a quick bearish decline towards 1.2040 then 1.1920. Trade Recommendations :- Conservative traders were advised to look for SELL Positions anywhere around the price levels of 1.2300. It's already running in profits Stop Loss should be placed above 1.2350 while Target levels should be located around 1.2200, 1.2170 then 1.2120. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 7, 2020 Posted: 07 Jan 2021 06:20 AM PST
EUR/JPY is moving higher again towards the next minor upside target 127.72 and ultimately closer to 129.06. Support is now seen at 126.05 which should be able to protect the downside as EUR/JPY continues higher towards the 129.06 target. An unexpected break below 126.05 will delay the expected rally higher and call for a re-test of strong support near 124.95 before turning higher again. R3: 128.06 R2: 127.72 R1: 127.30 Pivot: 126.78 S1: 126.49 S2: 126.05 S3: 125.71 Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 126.25 and we have move our stop higher to 126.00 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for GBP/USD for January 07 - 08, 2021: Strong Support At 1.3549 Posted: 07 Jan 2021 06:06 AM PST The British Pound (GBP / USD), in the American session is trading below the SMA of 21 and above the strong support of 7/8 at 1.3549, we have seen several attempts to break this level, so we could expect a technical rebound in the next few hours. The GBP / USD pair is under strong downward pressure, at 8/8 Murray, which located at 1.3671, on the 4-hour chart you can see that the GBP / USD has not been able to consolidate above this level. Therefore, selling below this zone will be a good opportunity in the short term. In the 4-hour chart of GBP / USD you can see that we have painted a yellow zone, this level is important to observe, if the pair is trading around or below this level, it will be a good selling opportunity, with objectives in the 6/8 of murray that coincides with the EMA of 200. Our recommendation is to only sell, since the eagle indicator is giving a bearish signal, so we can sell if there is any technical rebound, a break below the 1.3549 support, it will be a good opportunity to sell until the 200 EMA at 1.3427 . Support And Resistance Levels For January 07-08, 2021 Resistance (1) 1.3671 Resistance (2) 1.3738 Resistance (3) 1.3805 Support (1) 1.3536 Support (2) 1.3468 Support (3) 1.3401
Trading tip for GBP/USD for January 07-08, 2021 Sell below 1.3620 (SMA of 21) with take profit at 1.3549, stop loss above 1.3650. Buy if rebound around 1.3549 (strong support), with take profit 1.3612 and 1.3670, stop loss below 1.3505. Sell if pullback to 1.3645, with take profit at 1.3549 and 1.3427 (6/8 of murray),stop loss above 1.3680. Sell if breaks 1.3549 (Strong support) with take profit at 1.3427 ( EMA 200), stop loss above 1.3585. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2021 06:00 AM PST Further Development
Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC , I found that BTC reached my first target from yesterday at the price of $37,000 and is heading toward next upside targets at $40,370 and $42,000. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the dips with targets at $40,370 and $42,000. Momentum is strongly to the upside... Key Levels: Resistances: $40,370 and $42,000. Support level: 34,500 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis of Gold for January 07,.2021 - Potential for the upside movement towards $1.927 and $1.955 Posted: 07 Jan 2021 05:54 AM PST US weekly initial jobless claims 787K vs 800K expected Prior was 787K
The reports over the holidays are tough to interpret because of all the closures. There have been some small signs of improvement in the past two weeks but it's tough to tell if that's real or a result of holidays. For instance, unadjusted claims were 922K but were seasonally adjusted lower. The PUA drop may be due to the runoff in the program. For instance, Ohio reported zero claims in the program compared to 51K the week before.
Further Development
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold , I found that there was the selling climax yesterday and that today we might see test of supply and consolidation but still chance for the upside. My advice is to watch for key pivot level at $1,910 and $1,900 and if you see the rejection or successful test, long positions would be preferable with the targets at $1,927 and $1,955. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Lumber and Coffee today and on the bottom VIX and Ethanol. Key Levels: Resistances: $1,927 and $1,955 Support levels: $1,900 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2021 05:45 AM PST ECB's Weidmann: ECB must ensure emergency tools don't turn permanent Comments by ECB hawk, Jens Weidmann
The headline comment is notable as it will be more of a heated topic later in the year if the economic recovery keeps on track. That will also start to bring into question the PEPP fulfilment by the ECB before it expires in June next year. Further Development
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD , I found that there is potential for the completion of the ABC downside correction based on the hourly time-frame. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Lumber and Coffee today and on the bottom VIX and Ethanol. Key Levels: Resistances: 1,2305 and 1,2350 Support levels: 1,2260 and 1,2250 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for EUR/USD for January 07 - 08, 2021: Strong Resistance At 1.2312 Posted: 07 Jan 2021 05:36 AM PST EUR / USD at the opening of the American session is trading at 1.2262 at the time of writing this article, in the European session we saw a correction of the EUR / USD, breaking the SMA of 21, and breaking the uptrend channel of charts daily, you can check it here. The euro-dollar has found strong resistance at 1.2340, and at 1.2308, it is important to observe these levels, because below these the downward pressure could accelerate the fall to the level of the EMA 200, which is located at 1.2129. Now, as the EUR / USD is currently trading below the 21 SMA, we should expect a technical bounce or pullback to the level of 1.2290 and 1.2312, these levels will give us a good selling opportunity in the short term. We have painted a yellow zone on the 4-hour chart of the euro, as long as the pair trades below that level, we will have a selling opportunity, a break above those zones should wait to sell or avoid orders. Our recommendation is to wait for the 1.2290 - 1.2312 zone, for a bullish exhaustion and sell again with targets at the 1.2130 zone of the 200 EMA. The market sentiment report for this morning shows a figure of 59% of operators who are selling the EUR / USD pair, this figure in recent days we have seen decrease, which is a sign that there could be a fall in the euro to the 1.2130 area in the short term. Support And Resistance Levels For January 07-08, 2021 Resistance (1) 1.2312 Resistance (2) 1.2371 Resistance (3) 1.2400 Support (1) 1.2246 Support (2) 1.2202 Support (3) 1.2183
Trading tip for EUR/USD for January 07-08, 2021 Sell bellow 1.2290 ( SMA 21) with take profit at 1.2245 and 1.2146 (7/8), Stop loss above 1.2335. Sell if pullback 1.2312 (strong resistance), with take profit at 1.2245 and 1.2130 (EMA 200), stop loss above 1.2355. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2021 05:35 AM PST Gold price back tests broken resistance at $1,900 which is now support. So far price has respected the $1,900 level and the upward sloping support trend line. In order for trend to continue to be bullish price must continue making higher highs and higher lows and eventually break above $1,950.
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| Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EURUSD Posted: 07 Jan 2021 05:32 AM PST EURUSD reached yesterday our 1.2350 target and today is pulling back towards cloud support. Price is trading just above 1.2250 where we find key short-term support. The Ichimoku cloud so far provides robust support at 1.2250. Price touched the cloud and is now bouncing. This is bullish behavior.
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| Potential bounce to 0.8970-0.8980 for USDCHF Posted: 07 Jan 2021 05:28 AM PST USDCHF remains in a bearish trend making lower lows and lower highs. However price has also formed a downward sloping wedge pattern and we observe that the RSI is showing bullish divergence warning signals. So far we have no indication of a bullish reversal of the short-term trend.
Blue lines - bullish RSI divergence USDCHF has the potential to bounce towards the green downward sloping resistance trend line. Potential target is at 0.8970-0.8980. Short-term resistance is found at 0.8855. A break above this level will be a sign that the bounce is underway. Major bullish signal will be given if price breaks out of the downward sloping wedge pattern. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Jan 2021 04:44 AM PST
As soon as reports broke about the victory of a Democrat in the Senate elections in Georgia, supporters of the current US President Donald Trump and the police clashed outside the Capitol building in Washington on Wednesday. Protesters arrived in Washington to express support for Trump, then stormed into Congress and surrounded it. Congress was shut down and all legislators were evacuated. Democrat Raphael Warnock defeated Republican representative Kelly Leffler in the second round of the election. After accounting for 98% of the ballots, Warnock received 50.5% of the vote, while Leffler was slightly lower at 49.5%. Congress hastened to approve the election of Joe Biden as President of the United States amid the unrest in Washington and the introduction of a curfew. Biden received more than 270 Congressional electoral votes. At the same time, the yield on Treasury bonds rose to 1% during Asian trading for the first time in 10 months. This is due to expectations that the US will now increase spending on combating the effects of the coronavirus, developing infrastructure, and generating energy from renewable sources. The Democratic victory in the second round of the election of two senators from Georgia gives the newly elected President Joe Biden much more power, which includes new, larger incentives and unlimited infrastructure spending. However, if Congress unconditionally endorses Biden, the regulation may become more stringent and taxes on corporations will jump. This outcome is unlikely to please Wall Street. There is a high probability of increasing regulatory risks for the banking sector, healthcare, as well as large technology companies, and companies in the energy sector. At the same time, it is possible to limit both the after-tax profit and the estimate of earnings per share. The market is forced to put higher bond yields in prices. As a result, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached the level of 1.0052% - for the first time since mid-March. However, it should be recognized that the existing concerns about tax increases and regulation are still not much of a concern for market participants. A much stronger argument for them is the high prospects for increasing fiscal support in 2021. Experts predict that the development of infrastructure will eventually provide economic growth, create jobs, and contribute to the development of construction and transport. However, new reforms need to take funds from additional borrowing, which will have a bad effect on the US dollar, which is already suffering from an exaggerated US budget and a lack of trade balance. At the same time, today's confirmation of electoral votes in Congress precludes any challenge to the results of the US presidential election. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Global stock markets ignored the storming of the Capitol in Washington Posted: 07 Jan 2021 04:13 AM PST The United States and Asian stock exchanges reacted poorly to the unrest in the US Congress. The main stock indicators mostly increased, and the yield on 10-year US government bonds exceeded 1% for the first time since March last year. Vaccinations and the state aid package under the Democrats, who won the majority in both houses of Congress, remain the main concerns for market participants. Recall that during the counting of votes on Capitol Hill in Washington, supporters of Donald Trump broke into the US Congress building. The clashes with law enforcement agencies resulted in the death of four civilians. The behavior of the protesters who broke into Congress was publicly condemned by many leaders of well-known American companies. Among them are JP Morgan Chase CEO James Dimon, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Microsoft President Brad Smith, and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai. In addition, the current US President Donald Trump and the elected Joe Biden called for the restoration of order to the protesters. Despite this, major stock indexes mostly rose. The S&P 500 gained 0.57% and showed 3748.14 points. The Dow Jones jumped 1.44% to 30,829.4 points. Even banks and manufacturers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic showed positive dynamics. Even before the rally began, the Dow Jones industrial average crossed the 31,000-point mark for the first time in history. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 0.61%. Analysts also noted negative dynamics in Apple (- 3.37%), Netflix (- 3.9%), Amazon (- 2.49%) and Microsoft (- 2.59%). The American manufacturer of electric cars Tesla, on the contrary, grew by 2.84%. Investors outside the United States also ignored the unrest on Capitol Hill. So, the key indices in Australia, Japan, and South Korea increased by 1.8% -2.3%. Hong Kong and Shanghai lost slightly, sliding less than 0.5%. The traditional safe-haven asset of investors – gold – decreased in value by 2.3%, which was the most serious fall in one day since the beginning of November. On Thursday morning, futures linked to the main US indicators continued to rise at the level of 0.4% to 0.8%. A day earlier, the yield on 10-year US government bonds rose slightly to 1.047%, but this was enough to exceed the 1% mark for the first time since March 2020. Experts explain this state of affairs by the fact that the market expects a more impressive package of state support in the context of the coronavirus pandemic amid the Democrats gaining a majority in the US Senate. Now the Democratic Party has not only a majority in both houses of Congress but also the presidency, which will be occupied by Joe Biden. Analysts believe that the markets mostly pay attention to positive factors today. Investors are trying to look beyond the spontaneous protests in Washington and potential tax changes that can be approved by Democrats in Congress. And if you look at the situation quite globally, the agenda of market participants now is on rapid vaccination of the population from COVID-19, the recovery of the global economy, and an increase in the state aid package. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| US dollar maintained its downward trend Posted: 07 Jan 2021 04:05 AM PST
This month is expected to be politically intense in the United States. According to the results of the Senate elections, both Democrats filled in the seats, while the Republicans were dismissed. As a result, Trump supporters tried to disrupt the Congress meeting yesterday, which was supposed to approve the results of the past elections. However, their actions seem to be more like agony. On Thursday morning, Congress continued its work, approving the election of Joe Biden as the new president. The chaos in Washington failed to seriously affect the markets, since short-term pull in the US dollar and sell-off in favor of protective assets were not observed. This will not change the trend, but it will look more like a slight difficulty. After that, everything will return to normal. It is quite hard to take time analyzing current events in relation to the U.S. Capitol attack, so it is much more important to pay attention to the Democrats, who now have the full control. Markets have previously been built on such a development, and this trend is now able to strengthen. Democrats, in turn, will be able to pass necessary laws in a shorter time. The dominance of the Democratic party carries increasing risks of additional fiscal stimulus, tax increases, and increased regulation. Here, there is no doubt that the companies most severely affected by the pandemic will benefit. It is now the right time to remember the promises that Biden made during the election campaign, wherein he talked about stimulus checks for $ 2,000, if the majority of Democrats rule in the Senate. Government spending on supporting the population is expected to grow significantly in the next few years. On the other hand, the Fed should expand QE to maintain control over the government's debt service costs through low rates by way of a massive buy-back program. All of this will put pressure on the US dollar. The US currency index has been steadily declining since May. A serious break in the trading range occurred in June, when market players began to forecast that the Republicans would lose their power. During the final days of 2020, the dollar index went below 90 points, and then sharply consolidated under it with the beginning of 2021. The last time it traded outside this psychologically important level (90 points) was almost six years ago. An important area of the lows of the beginning of 2018 is located at the level of 89 points, which is very close to the current values. If sellers manage to break down the 89th mark, then we can expect the US dollar to weaken again against a basket of competitors. In this case, the indicated currency can be considered to the next bottom, which may well be the consolidation levels of 2014, that is, at the level of 80. It is noteworthy that the US dollar index began to sharply rise from these marks last 2014. Signals about the curtailment of quantitative easing contributed to this movement. At the moment, there are practically no signals from the American regulator for a possible change in the program parameters. However, the results of the January meeting will be announced at the end of this month, where new information should be considered. There will most likely be data on the US labor market, where the situation is quite alarming. Yesterday's ADP report indicated a 123,000 decline in December employment, which is the first decline in private sector employment since April. As labor market data weigh on the FOMC's decision, Friday's official statistics could have a significant impact on the US dollar, which has not been seen for a long time. This will happen if the actual figure diverges from the expected average forecast of employment growth of 69 thousand in December. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading plan for EURUSD for January 07, 2021 Posted: 07 Jan 2021 03:06 AM PST
Technical outlook: EURUSD might have carved a meaningful top around 1.2350 levels yesterday. The single currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.2249 levels at this point in writing and could continue lower towards 1.2200/1.2150 in the immediate short term. The overall structure might be turning bearish from here and a break below 1.2170 would confirm the above. Immediate resistance is now fixed around 1.2350 while support comes in at 1.2150 levels respectively. The rally that had begun from 1.0636 lows in March 2020, might have finally terminated/completed at 1.2350 levels yesterday. If the above structure holds well, bears might be preparing for a major corrective decline towards 1.1300 levels, which is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally. Furthermore, the potential target for next several weeks is towards 1.1600 levels. The daily chart is unfolding an engulfing bearish candlestick pattern and a close around current levels (1.2250/55) will confirm the same. Trading plan: Remain short, stop @ 1.2450, target @ 1.1600 and further. Good luck! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
February futures for WTI also went up by 0.63%, to $50.95 per barrel 
yesterday's analysis. Gold key resistance remains at $1,950 and bulls must break above it in order to resume the up trend towards $1,980 area which is our next target.
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