The U.S. economy added 245,000 jobs in December 2020, below analysts' consensus forecasts. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%. Overall, the data came out a bit worse than forecasted, the numbers are seen as positive. In any case, the U.S. economy requires additional stimulus from the regulator, which was accepted at the last meetings of the Fed.
What to expect this month:
Non-Farm Payrolls Employment
Last data: 245К
Consensus Forecast: 100K
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is an economic indicator that shows the number of new jobs created in the U.S. non-agricultural sectors each month. It is a very important macroeconomic indicator of the country, which best reflects the dynamics of unemployment in the United States. The total number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector is about 80% of the total U.S. gross domestic product.
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings MoM
Last data: 0.3%
Consensus forecast: 0.2%
This indicator shows the change in the average hourly wage level for major industries, except agriculture.
Unemployment Rate
Past data: 6.7%
Consensus forecast: 6.7%
The previous Unemployment Rate was slightly better than the consensus estimate of 6.8%, while the actual number was 6.7%. This may indicate some stabilization in the labor market, no flurry of company closings as was the case in the first lockdown.
Keep in mind:
- During the NFP announcement, expect high volatility, especially across USD pairs.
- Market sentiment can really affect currency movements. What traders expect from the report has as much impact as the actual released data, if not greater.
- A higher figure than the one registered during the previous month signifies an improvement in employment numbers. This, as well as the release of a higher-than-expected figure, mean an increase in the number of jobs created and are positive for both the U.S. economy and the dollar.
- A lower figure than the one registered during the previous month, as well as a lower-than-expected figure, usually have a negative impact on the dollar as they demonstrate a drop in employment numbers.
- Remember that the sudden spike observed across the charts of many currency pairs upon the release of the NFPs is usually followed by a period during which the market tries to recover and return to its initial price levels.
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