Climbing a Wall of Worry

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Climbing a Wall of Worry

Matt Benjamin, Senior Markets Expert, The Oxford Club

From Baltimore - Let's quickly define a phrase that seems particularly relevant right now...

Wall of worry: A market uptrend that occurs when there is significant uncertainty about the market's sustainability.

That definition comes from The Free Dictionary. And to anyone watching financial markets, it should sound eerily familiar.

After a horrific Monday, when the S&P 500 Index dropped 1.6% and investors clambered into Treasurys, sending the 10-year yield down to 1.2%, stocks resumed their trudge upward through the rest of the week.

At the risk of severe understatement, I'll call this an anxious ascent - akin to deciding to summit Mount Everest despite a potential storm on the horizon and the worried expression on your Sherpa's face.

Consider a few indicators that don't comport with the fact that the S&P 500 is approaching yet another all-time high...

The CNN Fear & Greed Index has pushed into "extreme fear" territory.

Fears Are Rising
 

The CBOE Volatility Index spiked from 18.2 to 24.8 on Monday, though it's come down a bit and sits at around 17 as I write this. The dollar, the world's safe-haven currency, hit a three-month high (measured against a basket of other major currencies).

What's the Worrying About?

So what's causing all this anxiety? A number of things, actually.

  • There is a rising number of COVID-19 delta variant cases in countries ranging from Indonesia and India to the U.S. and the U.K. As a result, fears of inflation seem to have quickly dissipated, replaced by growing concerns that the much-anticipated economic growth in the second half of 2021 will disappoint.
  • There are increased tensions between the world's two biggest economies, China and the U.S. In the latest salvo, the Biden administration accused China of hacking Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). Some analysts believe we're on the cusp of a cold war with the Asian giant.
  • There has been ongoing and unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus by governments around the globe - as well as a growing consensus that they've made the international economy and financial system highly fragile.

So why, with all these things weighing on investors, do they continue to bid up stocks?

Ask TINA

Let's define another term: TINA. We'll rely on Investopedia for this one.

TINA: An acronym for the phrase "There is no alternative." The TINA effect is when stocks rise only because investors have no viable alternative.

Bonds are the typical alternative to stocks. They can offer comparable - though typically lower - returns, along with much lower risk. But all that central bank monetary easing has pushed bond yields, both corporate and government, to historic lows. All major bond market yields are now well below inflation, which makes "real" yields - or the yield when accounting for inflation - negative. The real yield on the 10-year Treasury stands at negative 0.98%.

Other alternatives to stocks aren't much more appealing. The price of gold is way off its high from last August. Commodity prices, which heated up earlier this year, have cooled along with fears of inflation. Oil, the king of commodities, is suddenly falling due to a deal reached this past weekend among the members of OPEC and several other major oil exporters.

Then there's Bitcoin, or what some have called "digital gold." Since it touched a high of $63,729 in April, the price of Bitcoin has been in free fall. This week, it fell below $30,000, a critical support level that some fear may open the route to a more accelerated drop.

And how about fiat currencies? Sure, you can invest in safe havens, like the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc - if you have the stomach for currency trading. But if you think stocks can get complicated, you're in for a whole new universe of complexity with currencies.

So yes, alternatives to stocks are few and far between. Thus, stocks it is.

Luckily, "stocks" is a very broad term. And despite growing nervousness about the precarious nature of the stock market, many quality stocks remain good bets. That includes those with high returns on equity, stable year-over-year earnings growth and low financial leverage.

And if you're looking for quality stocks with great fundamentals, look no further than Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green's VIP Trading Research Service The Momentum Alert.

Alex looks for double-digit sales growth, multiyear earnings growth, solid return on equity, strong management and a few other variables before he recommends a stock. Just click here to learn more.

So there may be no great alternative to stocks at the moment as they climb this current wall of worry. But there is quality in corners of the market.

Invest wisely,

Matt

 

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