Forex analysis review |
- Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 5. James Bullard: it's time to end the anti-crisis policy and curtail QE!
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on August 5. Analysis of Wednesday. Getting ready for Thursday
- India may ban Bitcoin and other altcoins
- Wave analysis of GBP/USD for August 4. NIESR: UK inflation will rise to 3.9% by the end of 2021
- Silver Reversal Needs Confirmation
- Wave analysis of EUR/USD for August 4. ADP labor market data didn't upset the markets too much
- EURJPY supported.
- Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on EURUSD for August 4, 2021.
- Short-term technical analysis on Gold
- Short-term technical analysis on Bitcoin.
- NZD/USD Finds Strong Resistance! Is The Upside Movement Over?
- Bitcoin Buyers Attack!
- August 4, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan.
- August 4, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading options.
- August 4, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and key-levels.
- Trading Signal for BITCOIN for August 04 - 05, 2021: Buy above $ 37,500
- EUR/USD Takes Hit From US ISM Services PMI
- Trading Signal for GBP/USD for August 04 - 05, 2020: Key level 1.3916
- Trading Signal for USD/JPY for August 04 - 05, 2021: Buy above 108.59
- BTC analysis for August 04,.2021 - Breakout of the falling wedge
- Gold seeks protection from central banks
- GBP/USD: plan for the US session on August 4 (analysis of morning deals).
- EUR/USD analysis for August 04 2021 - Inside day formation and potential for the breakout play
- Analysis of Gold for August 04,.2021 - Critical test of the pivot resistance at $1.820
- EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Trading plan for novice traders for August 4, 2021
| Posted: 04 Aug 2021 07:29 PM PDT 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways. CCI: -220.8333 The EUR/USD currency pair continued its weak corrective movement on Wednesday and eventually worked out the moving average line. The volatility was still relatively weak, so the nature of the pair's movement did not change at all. It has been preserved as such for a fairly long period. Recall that we draw traders' attention to the low volatility of the euro/dollar pair and the nearly absent trend movement almost every day. At the same time, it should be clearly understood what a trend is and the absence of a trend. A trend is not necessarily a movement in which the pair is constantly moving in one direction. Such trends are often drawn in textbooks, but in practice, they are very rare. Usually, a trend is a long movement within the current timeframe in the same direction with corrections and pullbacks. Let's say in the case of the euro/dollar pair. It can be a movement of 100 points up, then 50-60 points of correction, and so on. In principle, the pair is quite often traded in this way. But now, when the volatility per day is 40-50 points, it becomes extremely difficult to trade this instrument. For example, catching a price reversal or a signal on the lower timeframes becomes extremely difficult because even a movement of 100 points can take a whole week. It turns out that intraday trading on the euro/dollar pair is impractical at this time. Recall that this was not always the case. A few months ago, the average volatility of the pair was at least 60 points per day, and signals were formed regularly. Naturally, for a 4-hour timeframe, the stronger the movement, the better. Therefore, in principle, it doesn't even matter which TF you are analyzing at this time. A weak movement complicates the trading process in almost any case, only if you are not working for the long term. Thus, the main conclusion is that the movements are now extremely weak, so it is difficult and problematic to work them out on almost any TF. Let's go further. Globally, all technical and fundamental factors remain unchanged. Thus, we continue to adhere to our forecasts in global terms, which we announced at the beginning of the year. Namely, the resumption of the global upward trend and the renewal of three-year highs. However, due to the same weak movement, this scenario is also delayed in its implementation. There is absolutely nothing to highlight from the pressing topics in the European Union right now. Therefore, all attention is now focused on the States - the number one supplier of important information. However, unfortunately, the markets do not always work out even this important information. Therefore, we can only draw the attention of traders to this news and topics, but at the same time, it should be recognized that they have practically no effect on the US currency at this time. For example, what impact does the topic of a possible technical default of the United States have on the dollar exchange rate since the government debt limit was reached? Nothing. What was the market's reaction when it became known that the Democrats and Republicans agreed on an "infrastructure" package worth $ 1 trillion? None at all. Even the Fed's meeting last week did not cause almost any reaction from traders. And this is why we deliberately overlook such important reports as GDP in the US and the EU, which were also ignored. It seems that now 90% of all political, macroeconomic, and fundamental information is ignored by the markets. The same situation was observed in 2020 when it was impossible to penetrate traders with anything. The dollar just got cheaper, and that's it. One of the Fed members, James Bullard, gave a big interview the other day. From his point of view, the economic regime in the United States is changing, and the central bank will have to adapt to all the changes and shocks that still await the economy in the future. Bullard has repeatedly criticized the Fed's actions for their excessive "softness," but at the moment, he sees excessive volatility in the economy and believes that it needs to be contained. Bullard has repeatedly stated in recent years that the US economy has been mired in low inflation and low growth rates in the last ten years. It is not surprising: after the 2008 crisis, many countries of the world could not achieve the necessary inflation and the necessary rates of economic growth. But now, Bullard noted increased inflation, rising wages, rising production, and a faster recovery than expected. According to Bullard, the Fed can beat itself on the issue of inflation. At the moment, Jerome Powell expects that inflation will begin to slow down by itself, which will allow maintaining a soft monetary policy. However, there will be very serious consequences after any crisis, whatever stimulating measures the government and the central bank would not take. "In the coming quarters, the recovery of the Eurozone economy may be faster than the US," Bullard believes. In light of these factors, the Fed's monetary policy should be more flexible, not more lenient. According to the Fed member, the Fed should already begin to wind down the QE program to fully complete it by the beginning of next year and start preparing for a key rate increase. "After the Fed failed to achieve 2% inflation for ten years, it decided to allow it to grow above 2% to compensate for periods of low price pressure, but at the same time, it risks running into "much more" than it wanted," Bullard believes. Many American economists at the same time point to the "overheating" of the American economy and believe that after the Fed begins to cool the economy, there will be a recession. In other words, when the Fed starts raising rates, it may be a shock to the US economy. In general, most likely, James Bullard is right that monetary policy should be flexible and respond as accurately and quickly as possible to any changes in the economy.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of August 5 is 51 points and is characterized as "average." Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1788 and 1.1890. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will signal a possible resumption of the upward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.1841 S2 – 1.1780 S3 – 1.1719 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.1902 R2 – 1.1963 R3 – 1.2024 Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair has started a new round of downward correction. Thus, today, we should consider opening new long positions with targets of 1.1902 and 1.1916 if the price remains above the moving average. Sales of the pair will be possible not before the price is fixed back below the moving average line with targets of 1.1788 and 1.1780. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 04 Aug 2021 02:12 PM PDT Analysis of previous deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair finally moved the way we would like it to be every day. The movements were strong. The volatility of the day was 67 points, which is quite a decent result. So the moves were good... but only when looking at the 5 minute timeframe. However, everything is still very gloomy on the 30 minute timeframe. The sideways movement is clearly visible, and this despite the fact that the upward trend line is still relevant, which should push the pair up. But no, the pair is in a very limited price range for the fifth consecutive day, very narrow. Therefore, this movement is called a flat. And even today's movements did not manage to change anything. The only thing that needs to be noted is that the price has worked out the trend line. However, when the market is flat, usually all important levels and lines are no longer of special importance. Thus, formally, one should expect the price to rebound from the trend line and resume the growth of the pair's quotes, but in fact this may not happen. We also draw your attention to the fact that today almost all macroeconomic statistics have been worked out by the markets, which happens very rarely in recent months. Traders worked out the EU service business index, the US ADP report and the US service business ISM index. It was the latter that provoked a strong downward movement in the afternoon. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Six trading signals were formed on a 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, and most of them could bring profit to novice traders. The main thing is that they should have been properly worked out. Let's start to figure it out. The first signal was perfect in terms of accuracy - a rebound from the level of 1.1880, followed by a downward movement of 30 points and being able to reach the nearest level of 1.1851. Thus, short positions in any case should have brought profit, no matter how the deal was closed: by Take Profit or near the level of 1.1851. A minimum of 20 points of profit. This was followed by a buy signal when the price has settled above the level of 1.1851, which should also be worked out with a long position. The ADP report was published at the beginning of the US session, which provided support for the bull traders, however, to be on the safe side, it was possible to set Stop Loss to breakeven here. As a result, the price continued to move up, went beyond the level of 1.1880, and only after the last two reports in the United States were published did it sharply turn down and began a powerful fall. By that time, a long position should have already been closed, since the price reached the closest level, passed a total of 40 points in the right direction (which would be enough even for a large Take Profit). Therefore, in any case, a profit was made on a long position. Further sell signals, although they also turned out to be profitable, should not have been worked out, since they were formed immediately after important reports were published. That is, it was very difficult to enter the market in time. Trading tips for Thursday: The EUR/USD pair continues to remain in an upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe. However, it is very weak, as is the trendline, which has an extremely weak slope. Therefore, it is hardly worth expecting that the price will often fall to it or, on the contrary, show a strong upward movement every day. In general, the EUR/USD pair is still facing low volatility and the absence of trend movement, which greatly complicates the process of trading on the higher timeframe. Thus, formally, we can now consider buy signals from the MACD indicator, but this should be done with the utmost care. Unfortunately, this indicator rarely generates the required signals. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1802, 1.1831, 1.1851, 1.1880, 1.1897. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. On Thursday, the European Union will not publish a single important report, and in the US - only a completely secondary report on applications for unemployment benefits. Macroeconomic background will be extremely weak tomorrow. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| India may ban Bitcoin and other altcoins Posted: 04 Aug 2021 02:12 PM PDT
Not only are China and Turkey united. It seems that bitcoin may have a black streak again, which will not allow the cryptocurrency to settle at the level of $42,000 and go into a bullish trend. Another country is considering a complete ban on bitcoin and other altos, the work of cryptocurrency exchanges. India is thinking very carefully about banning bitcoin and other crypto assets. Indian Finance Minister Pankaj Choudhary said that no final decision has yet been made on how cryptocurrencies will be regulated in the near future on the territory of India and whether bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies will be banned in the future. So far, a special high-ranking government committee on this issue has not yet been established. If you look into the past, two years ago, an interdepartmental committee proposed to introduce a ban on bitcoin and other altcoins in India, which entails criminal liability for trading, hoarding and mining in India. The world-famous Reuters news agency has notified that India will be ready to adopt a law regarding the fate of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the very near future. Also, Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman mentioned that so far it is still just talk, since India wants to move with the times and a complete ban on bitcoin is not at all the path that a highly developed country wants to move along. In June, the Indian newspaper The New Indian Express wrote in the headlines of its news that the Indian government had softened its attitude with regard to crypto assets, and the Reserve Bank of India also decided that in June, the central bank had great concerns about the adaptation of cryptocurrencies in India and the gradual replacement of fiat. India, like China, does not want to have a currency in its country that cannot be controlled. It is creating its own digital national currency, similar to the digital yuan in China, which will use blockchain technology. Therefore, we can assume that bitcoin is unprofitable for the country and they will also want to get rid of it in the very near future. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Wave analysis of GBP/USD for August 4. NIESR: UK inflation will rise to 3.9% by the end of 2021 Posted: 04 Aug 2021 10:18 AM PDT
The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument has become a little clearer and understandable recently. The instrument continues to build a new upward wave, which now looks very convincing and definitely does not fit into the wave counting of the previous downward trend section. Therefore, I believe that the downward section of the trend is completed. Moreover, it took a five-wave form. Thus, I expect the formation of at least three upward waves now. If this assumption is correct, then the increase in the quotes of the instrument will resume after the construction of a corrective downward wave, the beginning of which could have already been laid. However, at the moment, wave b does not look complete yet, so the decline may still resume. The targets of the entire upward section of the trend are located near the maximum of the wave e. Therefore, I expect the instrument to increase by another 200-250 points at least. I would also like to draw your attention to the new upward section of the trend which may turn out to be impulsive since its first wave already looks very impressive. The Pound/Dollar instrument increased by another 40 basis points on Wednesday. The news background during the day was not very strong, but it should be recognized that the markets themselves were not eager to analyze the received economic information and trade in accordance with it. If there are practically no questions according to statistics from the UK, then the ADP report was poorly worked out and only the ISM index caused a really good movement by 50 points down. The index of business activity in the services sector of Britain in July increased from 57.8 to 59.6 points. Since both of these values are considered high, there was no increase in demand for the pound. The markets already seem to be fully focused on the meeting of the Bank of England, the results of which will be announced tomorrow. I have already said that there is a high probability that there will be no changes in monetary policy. Thus, the main question is when will the British regulator complete the QE program? Given that the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) believes that inflation will rise to 3.9% by the end of the year, the Bank of England may give any signals about reducing the asset purchase program in the coming months. However, most analysts agree that such actions will be taken no earlier than the Fed. The latest meetings of the Bank of England showed that only one of the nine MPC members is ready to change the QE program. And he has already resigned from his position. At this time, the wave pattern has become more understandable. The construction of the downward trend section is completed. I continue to count on the construction of a new upward trend section, so at this time it is possible to buy the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4240 mark, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "up". The instrument could start building a corrective wave 2 or b, so the instrument may decline for some time.
The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has already acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Silver Reversal Needs Confirmation Posted: 04 Aug 2021 10:07 AM PDT
Gold dropped in the last hours and now is retesting the broken downtrend line. It has increased as much as 25.892 where it has found resistance. Staying above the downtrend line and jumping above 25.892 today's high could really signal a potential upside reversal. Technically, only dropping and stabilizing under the downtrend line could invalidate the upside scenario. Silver could move somehow sideways in the short term if it stays above the downtrend line. Trading Conclusion!Staying above the downtrend line and jumping through the 26.000 psychological level may signal further growth in the upcoming period. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Wave analysis of EUR/USD for August 4. ADP labor market data didn't upset the markets too much Posted: 04 Aug 2021 10:01 AM PDT
The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument looks quite clear and unambiguous around this moment. The instrument continues to increase quotes but continues to do so with a minimum amplitude. This movement is very similar to an independent wave, which may be the first part of a new upward trend section. Thus, at the moment, the expected wave c and the entire downward section of the trend are considered completed. If this assumption is correct, then the price increase will continue with the targets located near the 20th figure and the level of 1.2065, which corresponds to 50.0% and 38.2% Fibonacci. The final targets of the entire upward trend segment are located near the highs of the previous upward trend segment. However, given the current amplitude of the instrument, it can move to its targets within a few months. I am not considering the option of complicating the downward trend section yet. The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument slightly strengthened on Wednesday compared to Monday and Tuesday. In the eurozone, the business activity index for the services sector was released, which fell from 60.4 base points to 59.8. The composite index was also released, which fell from 60.6 points to 60.2. In addition, a report on retail trade was released in June, which only fell 0.1% short of market expectations. Thus, in general, all these reports can be considered almost completely neutral. And the lack of market reaction to them is a logical combination of circumstances. Now, unto the much important economic data. In the US, a report on the change in the number of employees from ADP was released, which many pay close attention to. This report rarely correlates with Nonfarm Payrolls, so its low value does not mean that the next Nonfarm report in two days will also be weak. However, the markets did not pay due attention to the ADP report, although it turned out to be more than 2 times worse than expectations. The markets, of course, responded with an increase in demand for the instrument, which led to an increase of 30 points, but can this be called a reaction? The ISM index unexpectedly caused a much stronger reaction, as it amounted to 64.1 points against expectations of 60.5. Thus, the European reports were neutral, and the American ones were followed by a reaction, but strong only on the ISM index. The markets are waiting for other, more important information, but in the calendar of events for this week, only Nonfarm Payrolls reports and the unemployment rate in the United States are planned. Nothing else is important. So now all the attention is on Friday. Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the descending wave c is completed. Thus, as I said earlier, it is now possible to buy the pair with targets located near the nearest Fibonacci levels. These levels are 1.1919 and 1.1983, which corresponds to 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci. I recommend making purchases for each new MACD signal "up". An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 76.4% Fibonacci level indirectly indicates that the markets are not ready for new sales.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. This gives reason to assume that the last downward trend section is really completed. If this is true, then we can expect an increase in the quotes of the instrument in the coming weeks by 200-300 basis points. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 04 Aug 2021 09:34 AM PDT In our analysis yesterday on EURJPY we mentioned that at the 129.34 we prefer to be bullish because the risk reward ratio is in favor of the bullish reversal scenario. Price is now trading at 129.60. Price is turning higher.
Blue line - Bullish divergence Green line - expected path We continue to be bullish EURJPY. If price breaks above the red resistance trend line at 130 we will have an important bullish signal. So far we only have a bullish divergence by the RSI. The RSI is respecting its support trend line and is turning higher together with price. That is the main reason we wanted to turn bullish yesterday. The risk for bulls remains at 128.75. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on EURUSD for August 4, 2021. Posted: 04 Aug 2021 09:30 AM PDT EURUSD is trading around 1.1835 after getting rejected earlier today at 1.19. Daily trend remains bearish according to the Ichimoku cloud indicator as price is still below the Kumo (cloud). Our technical analysis of previous posts noted a reversal to the upside when price was trading below 1.18.
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| Short-term technical analysis on Gold Posted: 04 Aug 2021 09:26 AM PDT Gold price continues to trade above $1,800 but still trapped between $1,834 and $1,790. Today price tested the resistance and confirmed the importance of the $1,834 level. Price got rejected. This is important price action because it gives increased importance at our resistance.
Red line - support Gold price today visited the resistance at $1,830-34 area and got rejected. This is not a good sign for bulls but if price eventually breaks above $1,834, we will be more sure of the validity of the bullish signal. Support remains key at $1,790. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Short-term technical analysis on Bitcoin. Posted: 04 Aug 2021 09:20 AM PDT Bitcoin got rejected at the key resistance area of $41,000-$42,000 and pulled back towards $37,400 where we find the first important Fibonacci retracement.
Red lines - resistance trend lines Blue lines - Fibonacci retracements Bitcoin has reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement and is bouncing off this support level. This price level is now confirmed support and a break below it will push price towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $34,200. If bulls manage to hold above the 38% Fibonacci level, then we should expect another push and try to break above the key resistance of $41,000-$42,000. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| NZD/USD Finds Strong Resistance! Is The Upside Movement Over? Posted: 04 Aug 2021 09:17 AM PDT NZD/USD plunges at the moment of writing as the Dollar was boosted by the DXY's rally. Fundamentally, the greenback was helped to increase by the ISM Services PMI. The indicator has registered a strong growth to 64.1 from 60.1, exceeding the 60.5 estimates. Its further growth indicates further expansion. Today, NZD/USD has increased as much as 0.7088 level. The Kiwi has dragged the pair higher as the New Zealand Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate have reported better than expected data. It remains to see what will really happen as the current decline could be only temporary. As you already know, the US is to release the Unemployment Claims tomorrow, and the NFP, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate on Friday. Some poor US figures till the end of the week could push the pair higher again. NZD/USD Upside Was Paused!
NZD/USD has found resistance at the R1 (0.7084) and now is located at 0.7039 below the ascending pitchfork's median line. It's also back below the 38.2% retracement level. The next downside target is seen at the R1 (0.7026). A minor consolidation above the R1 and below the median line of the ascending pitchfork may signal a new upside movement. The bias is still bullish in the short term, but a larger upside movement could be validated only by a new higher high, if NZD/USD jumps and closes above 0.7088 today's high. Forecast!This could still be a temporary decline. NZD/USD could only test and retest the R1 (0.7026) before jumping higher again. Jumping and stabilizing above the ascending pitchfork's median line signals further growth towards the upper median line. Maybe the 23.6% retracement level is seen as critical support. Dropping below this level could signal that the upside is over and that NZD/USD could go towards new lows. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 04 Aug 2021 09:15 AM PDT Bitcoin rallied in the last hours and now it stands at 39,298 far above 37,481 today's low. The cryptocurrency was into a corrective phase in the short term after an amazing swing higher. The retreat was natural and now it seems ready to come back higher. It has increased by more than 5% from today's low and it continues to pressure immediate resistance levels. Taking out these obstacles and stabilizing in the buyer's territory may announce further growth. I've told you in my previous analysis that we cannot exclude a temporary retreat on Bitcoin after reaching a resistance area and after its strong rally. BTC/USD Correction Is Over!
Bitcoin has found support on the 38.2% retracement level and now is pressuring the weekly pivot point (39,238) after closing above the third warning line. It has also reached the 23.6% level again. Closing and consolidation above 23.6% and above 39,483.15 today's high could signal further growth. Ending its correction at the 38.2% level could indicate a potential comeback towards the 43,000 psychological level. Outlook!The bias is bullish in the short term. The bullish scenario could be invalidated only by a new lower low, by a drop below 36,386.19. Jumping and closing above the 40,000 psychological level may announce more gains. A larger upwards movement may be activated by a valid breakout above the 43,000 level. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| August 4, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan. Posted: 04 Aug 2021 09:00 AM PDT
Bearish persistence below the price zone of 1.2050-1.2000 was needed to establish a short-term downtrend. Shortly after, Bearish re-closure below 1.2100 then 1.2050 allowed more bearish domination. Initial bearish targets were located around 1.1940 then 1.1800 which offered some bullish rejection for sometime before another bearish movement could take place towards 1.1780. Recently, the EURUSD pair has been moving downwards within the depicted bearish channel while the price level of 1.1780 stood as a prominent demand level that prevented further bearish decline. That's why, a bullish breakout above 1.1830 is needed to enable further bullish advancement towards 1.1970 initially. Any upcoming bullish pullback towards 1.1985 should be considered for bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| August 4, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading options. Posted: 04 Aug 2021 08:59 AM PDT
Earlier in June, one more upside movement was demonstrated towards 1.2175 which failed to offer sufficient bearish pressure for a while. Breakout above 1.2175 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.2250 as an initial target. Further upside movement was expected to pursue towards the backside of the broken trend line. However, the pair has failed to do so. On the other hand, re-closure below 1.2175 was needed to turn the short-term outlook into bearish again. Recently, Persistence below the depicted price zone of 1.1990 indicated further downside movement towards 1.1840 and 1.1780 where some bullish recovery has originated. During last week, the EURUSD pair has been trapped within a narrow consolidation range between the price levels of 1.1780 and 1.1840. A bullish breakout was executed above 1.1840 shortly after. The current Upside pullback towards 1.1990 should be watched for SELLING Pressure with special attention if the price level of 1.1990 is bypassed as this indicates further upside movement towards 1.2100. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| August 4, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and key-levels. Posted: 04 Aug 2021 08:57 AM PDT
Since March, the GBPUSD pair has been moving sideways within a wide consolidation range extending between 1.3670 up to 1.4250 which acted as a prominent SUPPLY that prevented further bullish advancement. On the other hand , the GBPUSD pair has been contained above the demand level of (1.3660) a few times while Bearish breakout below 1.3600 was needed to enhance further bearish decline. Recently, Failure to maintain bearish pressure below 1.3670 (100% Fibonacci Level) has enhanced another bullish movement for retesting of the price level of 1.3880. Further bullish advancement is to be expected towards 1.4025. Please note that the current bullish rally was initiated around 1.3570 where the GBPU/USD pair found considerable bullish support earlier last month. Currently, the nearest SUPPLY level is located around 1.4025 where bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry should be anticipated. Otherwise, a bullish breakout above 1.4025 will probably enable further bullish advancement towards 1.4100-1.4150. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for BITCOIN for August 04 - 05, 2021: Buy above $ 37,500 Posted: 04 Aug 2021 08:13 AM PDT
BTC / USD has reached the key level of $37,500 which is a strong support. A technical bounce above this level could give momentum to the resistance zone located at $39,280. Having reached the resistance level of $42,187 and having formed a double-top pattern at this level, BTC made a technical correction. Now, we believe that it will be a good time to buy. The bottom line is to watch that the price of Bitcoin stays above $37,500. You will be able to buy above these levels with targets of $40,625 and $42,187. The technical reading of the eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal which confirms our bullish outlook. Support and Resistance Levels for August 04 - 05, 2021 Resistance (3) 41,451 Resistance (2) 40,569 Resistance (1) 39,294 ---------------------------- Support (1) 37,086 Support (2) 36,219 Support (3) 34,904 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD Takes Hit From US ISM Services PMI Posted: 04 Aug 2021 07:55 AM PDT EUR/USD plunged in the last 20 minutes as the Dollar Index rallied after the ISM Services PMI data. The economic indicator was reported unexpectedly higher, at 64.1 in July versus 60.5 expected and versus 60.1 in June. Moreover, the Final Services PMI increased from 59.8 to 59.9 points. Later on in the trading day, EUR/USD rallied in light of the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change as the indicator was reported at 330K far below the 695K estimate. The pair has erased today's gains and now is challenging a support area. EUR/USD Sell-Off!
EUR/USD has increased as much as the 1.1899 level and now is trading at 1.1844 above 1.1836 today's low. It has failed to come back above the 1.19 psychological level and now is testing the weekly pivot point (1.1846). Closing and stabilizing below the pivot point could signal a deeper drop. Technically, it remains to see where the current H4 candle will close. A false breakdown with great separation through the pivot point (1.1846) could signal that EUR/USD could still climb. Outlook!1.1841 - 1.1824 area is seen as a support zone. EUR/USD could rise further as long as it stays above it. The immediate major target is seen at the upper median line (UML). A temporary consolidation here could bring a new upside movement and a new long opportunity. Dropping and closing below 1.1824 signal a further decline towards the S1 (1.1784). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for GBP/USD for August 04 - 05, 2020: Key level 1.3916 Posted: 04 Aug 2021 07:38 AM PDT
The British pound continues to trade with a bullish outlook. GBP/USD is still consolidating in a relatively tight range. The key level is the area where the 21 SMA and the 4/8 Murray converge. The GBP / USD pair is consolidating in the 4/8 murray zone around 1.3929 ahead of ADP employment report in the US which is expected to show an increase in jobs greater than 600,000. If the published data is negative for the US dollar, we expect an upward momentum towards the 1.3977 resistance zone. So, the currency pair could reach the psychological level of 1.40. 1.3916 is the key level to watch. As long as GBP / USD remains above this level, we expect a price increase towards 1.3977 and towards the 6/8 murray zone around 1.4038. According to the 4-hour chart, you can see that the British pound is trading within an uptrend channel. If the channel is not broken, GBP/USD is likely to carry on with the upward movement in the next few hours. Conversely, a sharp breakout and consolidation below the key 1.3916 level will be a good selling opportunity with targets in the 1.3835 area of the 200 EMA. Tomorrow, on Thursday, GBP/USD is set to trade under strong volatility. The Bank of England (BoE) is due to unveil its monetary policy update. The overall rhetoric is likely to be cautious and it could weaken the British pound. The key point to watch is the 1.3916 area and the uptrend channel. Above this area, we will continue to buy. Below this area, GBP/USD is likely to fall towards the 4/8 murray around 1.3793(2/8). Support and Resistance Levels for August 04 - 05, 2021 Resistance (3) 1.4005 Resistance (2) 1.3971 Resistance (1) 1.3941 ---------------------------- Support (1) 1.3877 Support (2) 1.3843 Support (3) 1.3817 *********************************************************** Trading tip for GBP/USD for August 04 - 05, 2021 Buy above 1.3916, with take profit at 1.3977 (5/8), stop loss below 1.3880. Sell if breaks below 1.3905 (4/8), with take profit at 1.3835 (EMA 200), stop loss above 1.3940. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for USD/JPY for August 04 - 05, 2021: Buy above 108.59 Posted: 04 Aug 2021 06:51 AM PDT
The Japanese Yen is trading within a downtrend channel. Before opening of the American session, USD/JPY is consolidating in the 3/8 murray zone around 108.98 ahead of ADP employment report in the US which is expected to show an increase in jobs greater than 600,000. USD / JPY is looking strong and is likely to continue its bearish cycle to the strong 2/8 murray support zone located at 108.59. The US dollar is expected to extend weakness that could contribute to the yen's advance. The dominant short-term outlook for USD / JPY remains bearish, so a pullback to the top of the bearish channel around 109.37 will be a good opportunity to sell. On the other hand, in case of a break below the 3/8 murray line, the downward pressures would again intensify and push the price towards the 2/8 murray support at 108.59. At the 2/8 murray level, it will be a good opportunity to buy as this is the level where USD / JPY is expected to enter the overbought zone and there could be a good technical rebound. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair still has space to decline as the eagle indicator is approaching the 10-point zone, to mark an oversold level. Falling US Treasury yields and risk aversion make investors take refuge in the Japanese Yen. So, they are selling the US dollar and buying the yen, waiting for it to strengthen. This activity has been going on for a lengthy period. The technical reading of the eagle indicator, which measures market strength and a trading volume, is generating a bearish signal pointing to a decline in the Japanese yen towards support levels of 108.59. Support and Resistance Levels for August 04 - 05, 2021 Resistance (3) 109.74 Resistance (2) 109.54 Resistance (1) 109.27 ---------------------------- Support (1) 108.80 Support (2) 108.60 Support (3) 108.34 *********************************************************** Trading tip for USD/JPY for August 04 - 05, 2021 Buy if rebound 108.59 (2/8), with take profit at 109.37 (4/8), stop loss below 108.25. Sell below if pullback 109.37 (4/8), with take profit at 108.98 and 108.59 (2/8), stop loss above 109.72. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| BTC analysis for August 04,.2021 - Breakout of the falling wedge Posted: 04 Aug 2021 05:24 AM PDT Technical analysis:
BTC has been trading upside and there is the breakout of the falling wedge. More upside potential is in play.... Trading recommendation: Watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacksdue to the breakout of the falling wedge. Potential for the upside targets at $39,700 and $40,500 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Gold seeks protection from central banks Posted: 04 Aug 2021 05:18 AM PDT Despite the seemingly favorable external background in the form of high inflation, record low real rates on US debt, and fears of the COVID-19 delta variant, investors are in no hurry to invest in gold-backed ETFs. According to the World Gold Council, capital outflow from specialized exchange-traded funds of 129 tons in the first half of the year became the main driver of the decline in XAU/USD quotes. Neither the recovery in demand for jewelry nor the increased appetite for precious metals on the part of central banks saved the bulls. In January-June, regulators bought 333.2 tons of gold, which is 39% higher than the five-year average for this period. The central banks of Thailand, Hungary, and Brazil were especially active. Central bank gold purchases
Nevertheless, aggregate demand for precious metals in the first half of this year fell by 10% YoY to 1,833 tonnes, and Commerzbank believes that in order to raise XAU/USD quotes, it is necessary to return ETF fans to the market. In my opinion, they follow prices, not form them. As for the favorable external background, this impression is misleading. When the Fed's balance sheet expanded from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion in 2008-2014, markets were confident that inflation would be accelerating. However, the Federal Reserve, with the help of loans in the form of reverse repo in the amount of $2.6 trillion, reduced the growth rate of the money supply to an average annual 7% and brought inflation to its knees. Over the past three months, the volume of bond buyback transactions increased from $272 billion to $1.2 trillion, reducing the growth rate of the M2 money supply to 4%. The bulls on XAU/USD should not flatter themselves about the record low real rates on US bonds. There was too much talk at the start of the year that a successful vaccination would spur US GDP and inflation and force investors to ditch these securities. Excessively inflated speculative net shorts resulted in higher prices and a drop in yields. This cannot go on indefinitely. Positioning is coming back to normal, and positive statistics on the US labor market will raise debt rates. Dynamics of gold and US bond yields
If we add to this the optimistic prospects of the US dollar, on the side of which divergences in the economic growth of the US and the eurozone and in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB play, then the future of gold begins to play with gray colors. However, not everyone is sure about the fall in XAU/USD quotes. According to the Quadriga Igneo fund, central banks were so aggressive in the monetary expansion that they created several bubbles in the asset markets at once. To prevent them from bursting, regulators will have to get rid of the stimulus at a snail's pace, and at the first signs of regression, they will increase the scale of QE. This will allow gold to bounce to $3,000 per ounce. Technically, the "Splash and Shelf" pattern was formed on the daily chart of the analyzed asset. The exit of quotes beyond the lower boundary of the consolidation range of $1,793-$1,830 per ounce is a reason for selling. On the contrary, a breakout of the resistance at $1,830 is a signal for the formation of long positions in gold. Gold, Daily chart
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| GBP/USD: plan for the US session on August 4 (analysis of morning deals). Posted: 04 Aug 2021 05:02 AM PDT To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the resistance of 1.3935 and recommended that you make decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry points. The data on activity in the service sector pleased traders, as once again, there was an increase in the indices to the highs. Immediately after that, it was possible to observe the pair's recovery to the resistance area of 1.3935. However, the bulls did not have enough strength to stay above this range - if the buyers restrained the first pressure, then on the second attempt, the bears still returned the pair to the level of 1.3935, forming a false breakdown and a signal to open short positions. When writing the forecast, the situation had not changed much, and trading continued around the area of 1.3935, which forced us to revise the technical picture for the pair for the American session. The buyers' focus is now shifted to the resistance of 1.3951, which was formed on July 30 of this year. Only a breakout and a test of this level from top to bottom will lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions in the continuation of the pound's growth. However, we all remember that tomorrow there will be a meeting of the Bank of England. Changes in monetary policy are unlikely to be adopted, which significantly limits the upward potential of the pair and the bull market. Therefore, be extremely careful with purchases under monthly highs. In the growth above 1.3951, the nearest target of the bulls will be the resistance of 1.3980. A similar breakout of this level with a top-down test forms another entry point into long positions based on the update of 1.4019, where I recommend fixing the profits. With the option of a decline in GBP/USD in the second half of the day against the background of strong data on the US service sector, buyers will have to think carefully about protecting the support of 1.3902, above which the moving averages are playing on the side of the bulls. Only the formation of a false breakdown will lead to a signal to open long positions in the hope of restoring the pair and continuing the upward trend. In the absence of active actions on the part of the bulls in the area of 1.3902, it is best to postpone long positions until the low of 1.3846 is updated, where you can buy the pound immediately for a rebound with the aim of an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: As we can see, a large seller pushes his order a little higher and higher every day but quickly rebuffs buyers as soon as the price goes beyond the level of 1.3935. Thus, we can assume that the players are gaining short positions before tomorrow's meeting. Now the task of the bears is to protect the new resistance of 1.3951, and we need strong data on the American economy. The formation of a false breakdown forms a signal to open short positions to reduce the pair to the support of 1.3902, for which a real active struggle will unfold. A breakdown of this level and a test from the bottom up will hit the bulls' stop orders and push the pound to the next support of 1.3846, where it is worth thinking about profit-taking. The longer-term target remains the area of 1.3807. However, this is only after tomorrow's speech by the governor of the Bank of England, who should disappoint investors with his passive behavior. In the absence of active sellers in the area of 1.3951, I advise you to postpone sales until the next major resistance of 1.3980 or open short positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.4019, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.
The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for July 27 recorded a reduction in long positions. However, sellers also did not insist and partially reduced their volume of positions. The growth of the pound throughout the week allowed the GBPUSD pair to return to monthly highs. However, it was not possible to gain a foothold higher. The panic after lifting all quarantine restrictions in the UK has receded, and now the main focus this week will be placed at the meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy. The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve System did not change anything. Most likely, the Bank of England will also do the same. Before abandoning the stimulus measures, the Bank of England committee members will surely wait for accurate data on how things are going on in the labor market. It is expected that a large-scale government program to support the labor market will be completed as early as September of this year. It may force the regulator to take a longer wait-and-see position since the central bank is not experiencing any special problems with inflationary pressure yet. If the Bank of England representatives start talking more about plans to reduce the bond purchase program, this will provide significant support to the pound. I advise you to stick to the strategy of buying the pair with each significant decrease in it, as the big players do. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from 44,223 to the level of 41,194. In contrast, short non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 47,720 to the level of 46,878, indicating a cautious approach to sales at current highs. As a result, the non-commercial net position remained negative and amounted to -5,684 against -3,496 a week earlier. The closing price of last week jumped from the level of 1.3668 to 1.3826. Moving averages Trading is conducted just above the 30 and 50 daILy averages, indicating the bulls' attempt to intercept the market. Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands In case of a decline in the pair, the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.3902 will provide support. Description of indicators
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| EUR/USD analysis for August 04 2021 - Inside day formation and potential for the breakout play Posted: 04 Aug 2021 04:58 AM PDT Technical analysis:
EUR is still trading inside of the tight range at the price of 1,1865. My advice is to watch for potential breakout. Trading recommendation: Watch for the breakout of the tight consolidation to confirm further direction. Upside breakout of resistance at 1,1905 can lead EUR towards 1,1980 Downside breakout of support at 1,1850 can lead EUR towards 1,1782 Weekly high impact events can bring more volume and potential breakout.... The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis of Gold for August 04,.2021 - Critical test of the pivot resistance at $1.820 Posted: 04 Aug 2021 04:54 AM PDT Technical analysis:
Gold is approaching important pivot level at $1,820 and the price action around this level will be critical for further diction. Trading recommendation: In case of the rejection of the pivot at $1,820, watch for the downside movement towards $1,806 In case of the breakout upside and price above $1,820 on high volume, watch for buying towards $1,831 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Trading plan for novice traders for August 4, 2021 Posted: 04 Aug 2021 04:35 AM PDT Details of the economic calendar from August 3 The producer price index in Europe for June was released on Tuesday, August 3, where the indicators coincided with the forecasts, which did not affect the market in any way. We study and analyze Producer price index is the change in the price of goods produced within the European Union and sold on the domestic market in the reporting month compared to the same month of the previous year. The data is prepared by the statistical office of the European Union (Eurostat), which collects statistics from all countries every month by surveying a sample of several thousand manufacturing enterprises. Analysis of trading charts from August 3 The Euro/Dollar currency pair has been in the range of 1.1850/1.1900 for 48 hours, which is very similar to the process of accumulation of trading forces. Please note that this stagnation occurred at the peak of the corrective course of 1.1750 - - - > 1.1900, which may signal a change of trading interests in the market. Thus, market participants consider price stagnation as leverage. The trading plan of August 2 and 3 was a scenario that came from the boundaries of 1.1850/1.1900 momentum and could well indicate a movement in the market. The Pound/Dollar currency pair during the corrective movement from the psychological level of 1.4000 reached the level of 1.3900, where first there was a price stagnation, and then a pullback. The trading plan of August 3 showed a further weakening of the pound sterling, where the quote needed to keep market participants below the 1.3900 mark, otherwise, a rebound could occur, which happened as a result. We study and analyze • The process of accumulation of trading forces is a price fluctuation in a closed amplitude, where at the moment of a breakdown of one or another stagnation boundary, a local acceleration in the direction of breakdown occurs. • Psychological levels are round values (1,2000,1,3000, 1,4000,1,5000, etc.) that serve as key coordinates in the market and which traders pay special attention to. These levels are often used as support or resistance.
Economic calendar for August 4 Today, in terms of the economic calendar, data on retail sales in Europe will be published, where their volume in June may decrease from 4.6% to 1.7%. Publication time: 09:00 UTC We study and analyze • The volume of retail sales is one of the main economic indicators, which is an indicator of changes in the volume of sales in the context of retail trade. Thus, this indicator reflects the purchasing power of the population. The growth in retail sales is a positive signal for the economy and, as a result, the growth of the national currency. The decline in retail sales is a negative signal that leads to a weakening of the national currency. During the US trading session, the ADP report in the United States for July is expected, where the employment rate in the private sector is expected to rise, which positively affects the entire economy and is a good signal for the forthcoming report of the Department of Labor. Publication time: 12:15 UTC We study and analyze • The ADP Employment Report shows the change in the number of workers in the United States. The growth of the indicator has a positive effect on the unemployment rate in the country, as well as on consumer activity, which, in turn, has an impact on economic growth. Trading plan - EURO/DOLLAR (August 4) Analyzing the current Euro/Dollar trading chart, you can see that the price range of 1.1850/1.1900 is still relevant in the market, trading tactics for a breakdown of one or another border of the established stagnation is considered the most optimal in a given period of time. The trading plan considers two possible scenarios. The first scenario considers the subsequent downside movement, where holding the price below 1.1850 will open the way in the 1.1800 direction. The second scenario considers the prolongation of the corrective move, in which case the quote must hold above 1.1900, which will open the way towards the psychological level of 1.2000.
Trading Plan - POUND/DOLLAR (August 4) Analyzing the current Pound/Dollar trading chart, you can see how market participants are squeezed between two reference levels, putting pressure on both long and short positions. In this situation, you can work by the method of rebounding from a particular level, depending on where the quote came up, and how to use the breakout method as the most profitable trading tactic. When considering trading tactics for a breakout, the following point should be taken into account: when working for a fall, the price should be kept below 1.3870, which will open the way in the direction of 1.3800. When considering buy positions, the price should be held higher than 1.4000 over a four-hour period.
What is reflected in the trading charts? The candlestick chart view is represented by white and black graphic rectangles with lines at the top and bottom. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time period: open price, close price, high and low prices. Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or price reversal may occur. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance. Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of history has reversed. This highlighting in color indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future. The up/down arrows are indications of the possible direction of the price in the future. IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER Golden Rule: Before you start trading with real money, you need to figure out what you are dealing with. Training to trade is important for novice traders because the market is constantly in dynamics and it is important to understand what is happening on it. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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