The stock market is in full bloom right now, with bright growth in every corner of the flower bed. Yet the market can be a delicate flower, too, poised to wither and droop at the faintest hint of bad news. That's particularly the case in markets like the current one, in which valuations - the ratio of what stocks cost to the earnings they're generating - are so stretched. You can see this in the chart of the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio below. Stocks are more expensive today relative to earnings than they have ever been, with the fraught exception of the height of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. So investing today and absorbing all the information that can impact stock prices - from earnings announcements and company news to economic data, Federal Reserve policy and politics - is akin to studying an encyclopedia while walking a high wire. Yet the stock market at the moment seems relatively confident. The S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were all at or very near all-time highs this past week. Collectively, investors seem to be confident of two bullish factors that are crowding out any bad news. First, corporate earnings growth is robust. By mid-August, some 87% of S&P 500 companies reported second quarter earnings that beat market estimates, according to FactSet. That's extremely strong. It's true that companies often manipulate market sentiment and manage earnings expectations down so that they can end up beating them and see a boost in stock price. But that practice typically produces a 65% "beat" rate. Clearly, corporate earnings right now are exceeding historical trends by a lot. And second, the Fed seems to have successfully convinced markets that it will only very gradually start to remove monetary stimulus from the economy. There has been a great deal of worry that the Fed will shock the market and produce temper tantrums that send stocks stumbling. So far, however, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have set the right tone. Still, there is much information that can and will rock markets in coming weeks and months. Finally, if you find yourself concerned about the current market environment or what the COVID-19 delta variant may mean for economic recovery, look no further than The Oxford Club's upcoming Private Wealth Seminar, taking place from September 9-10. At this exclusive event, our top experts will be sharing their ideas and solutions - both live and online - as well as trends you can expect to see play out in the coming months and years. If you're interested in attending from the comfort of your couch, just click here to register for the livestream. Invest wisely, Matt | 
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