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Trade ideas thread - Friday 04 February 2022

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 01:48 PM PST

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

New Zealand - Building consents/permits for December 2021 +0.6% m/m ( prior +0.6% also)

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 01:48 PM PST

In the year ended December 2021, the actual number of new dwellings consented was up 24% from the December 2020 yearThe year ended December 2020 included the COVID-19 alert level 4 lockdown period in late March and April 2020, which disrupted consent issuance across many territorial authorities.The

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Euro jumps on hawkish turn from ECB

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 01:36 PM PST

ECB leaves key rates unchanged in February monetary policy meeting, as expected ECB's Lagarde opening statement: Inflation to remain elevated for longer than expected Lagarde Q&A: Inflation surprises causes unanimous concern on governing council ECB sources: Sizeable minority wanted

Head of the IMF says its too early to say world is facing an era of sustained inflation

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 01:34 PM PST

Georgieva remarks are mainly focused on Argentina (loans to etc.) but some are aimed more widely: says its too early to say if the world is facing an era of sustained inflation urges more efforts to combat the spread of COVID-19  urges meeting a global target of vaccinating 70% of all c

Worst day for the Nasdaq since October 2020, but Amazon earnings lift market after the close

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 01:10 PM PST

The US stocks are closing sharply lower, but Amazon beat on the EPS after the close.For the day, Dow industrial average fell 518.17 points or -1.45%S&P index fell 111.94 points or -2.44%NASDAQ index fell -538.72 points or -3.74%Russell 2000 fell 38.48 points or -1.90% 1991.03For Amazon:EPS $27.75 wh

Amazon, the last of the big cap stock bellweathers reports after the close, and boy is it important

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 12:55 PM PST

With Paypal yesterday and Meta today, two big names have taken a big fall  - like > 25% fall in one day after earnings and guidance disappointments. After the close, Amazon will not only be one of the last big cap names to report (the last of the FAANG), but it will also represent the broader "marke

The market hangs on Amazon earnings and non-farm payrolls

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 12:38 PM PST

Apple, Microsoft and Google certainly provided some optimism for big cap tech but the enormous falls in Facebook (Meta) and Netflix shares painted a different picture. To me, Amazon is the tie-breaker and will signal where the Nasdaq is going from here. There's certainly some pessimism int

Here's the bet if you think Russia won't invade Ukraine

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 12:16 PM PST

Here is a gap that can't be sustained. This chart shows brent crude at new highs while the ruble (inverted USD/RUB here) and Russian stocks sink.Either Russia will invade Ukraine or it won't. If war starts Russian assets are off limits until we find out what the sanctions are. I don't believ

WTI Crude oil futures settle at $90.27

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 12:00 PM PST

Crude oil raced above $90 today The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $90.27. That's up $2.01 or 2.28%. The high price reached $90.37 while the low price was way down at $86.75. Increase tension in Russia and Ukraine push the price above the $90 level for the first time sin

Boris Johnson's chief of staff quits

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 11:50 AM PST

Four of PM's closest aides have gone in a day, including Dan Rosenfield, who is leaving Number 10. BBC reports that he resigned this morning.Johnson will continue to limp along with a new staff. This all relates back to the lockdown parties his staff was having at the height of lockdowns.Between thi

US recirculates the false-flag Russian attack info, with new details

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 11:28 AM PST

We do have information that Russians want to fabricate a pretext for invasion, including staging a fake attack propaganda video US to allege that Russia plans to stage attack Russia considering producing propaganda video depicting staged fake explosion and blaming Ukranians or allied

WTI crude oil hits $90 as the drums of war sound in Ukraine

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 10:57 AM PST

WTI crude fell as low as $86.75 today on negative risk sentiment but it's completely turned around. The latest leg might have come on the reports that Russia is planning a false flag operation and propaganda video in Ukraine. This is a fresh seven-year high and another example of the insatiable appe

Pelosi: Russia/Ukraine situation is deadly serious. Rubio is convinced of a invasion

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 09:53 AM PST

Rep Nancy Pelosi is on the wires saying: Important to use US sanctions on Russia if they strike Ukraine Russia -Ukraine situation is deadly serious We want to move quickly on sanctions bill targeting Russia Meanwhile CNN is tweeting that Sen Marco Rubio the VP of Senate Intel is conv

European equity close: No help from Lagarde

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 08:38 AM PST

German DAX -1.5% UK FTSE 100 -0.5% French CAC -1.6% Spain IBEX -0.2% Italy MIB -1.0% German stocks finished on the lows, ending the recent bounce.

US Factory orders for December -0.4% versus -0.4% estimate

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 07:00 AM PST

US factory orders for December -0.4% US factory orders for December 2021: Nondefense capital expenditures ex air for December 0.3%Prior month +1.6% revised to 1.8% Factory orders come in as expected at -0.4%. The prior month was at 1.8%. Durable goods revision -0.7% versus

US January ISM non-manufacturing 59.9 vs 59.5 expected

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 06:59 AM PST

Lowest since Feb 2021 Prior was 62.0 New orders 61.7 vs 61.5 prior Prices paid 82.3 vs 82.5 prior Employment 52.3 vs 54.9 prior Business activity 59.9 vs 67.6 prior Full report This is a slightly better reading on the headline and prices paid. It's a good thin

Facebook drop on track to be the largest one-day wipeout in history

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 06:41 AM PST

There are more than $200 billion in losses floating around today due to the 25% decline in shares of Facebook. That's the largest one-day decline in market cap in history, presuming it holds until the close. About 14% of that decline belongs to Mark Zuckerberg, who will lose upwards of $25 billion i

US fourth quarter non-farm productivity +6.6% vs +3.2% expected

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 05:31 AM PST

Prior was -5.2% (revised to -5.0%)US Q4 unit labor costs +0.3% vs +1.5% expectedPrior unit labor costs +9.6% (revised to +9.3%)These numbers are very difficult to measure but there's some good news here.

US initial jobless claims 238K vs 245K estimate

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 05:30 AM PST

Initial jobs claims dip in the current week Initial jobs claims 238K vs 245K estimate 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 255K vs 247K last week Continuing claims 1.628M vs 1.62M estimate 4- week moving average of continuing claims 1.619M vs 1.651M. This is

Watch: ECB president Lagarde press conference at 1330 GMT

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 05:03 AM PST

The statement earlier offered no major hints of any change to policy as the ECB continues to try and buy as much time as they can in hopes that inflation pressures will subside. The pressure is on. And Lagarde will have some answering to do at the bottom of the hour. You can watch the press conferen

US January Challenger layoffs 19.1k vs 19.1k prior

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 04:29 AM PST

Prior 19.1kJob cuts were seen at 19,064 in January, up slightly from the 19,052 announced in December. Of note, at least the layoffs seen were 76% lower than the same month in 2021. Challenger notes that:"Omicron likely slowed the numbers of jobs added in January. Though the Supreme Court decision o

Watch: BOE governor Bailey press conference at 1230 GMT

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 04:22 AM PST

You can watch it live here:

EUR/GBP tests waters below critical support as BOE hypes up rate hikes

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 04:15 AM PST

In an odd twist of fate, the market is now playing catch up to the BOE.The rates market is now bringing forward BOE rate hike bets, with the bank rate seen at 1% by May after the more hawkish turn by the central bank from the decision earlier here.There vote to hike rates was 5-4 today but the mi

ForexLive European morning FX news wrap: Dollar higher, equities struggle; BOE, ECB up next

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 03:52 AM PST

Headlines:Will the ECB shake things up later today?What to watch out for going into the BOE decision later today?Pound rally stalls ahead of the BOEGerman 2-year yields near six-year highs ahead of the ECB laterUK January final services PMI 54.1 vs 53.3 prelimEurozone January final services PMI 51.1

Will the ECB shake things up later today?

Posted: 03 Feb 2022 03:02 AM PST

Not even a record consumer inflation reading will make today's ECB meeting any more interesting than one might expect. Don't get me wrong. The pressure is certainly on for Lagarde & co. to do something. But in trying to phase out PEPP purchases and introduce more bond buying after March, they are pu
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