Overview:
On the one-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair bullish trend from the support levels of 1.1846 and 1.1895. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.1895, which coincides with a golden ratio (78.6% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.1895. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.1895/1.1846. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (1.1846) with the first target at the level of 1.1959 (the double top).We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.1959) to test it. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.1959, then the trend will continue towards the next targets of 1.1988 and 1.2031. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.0123.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for August 28, 2017
2017-08-28
EUR/USD has shown impulsive bullish move breaking above 1.1850 with a daily close recently. As of the recent bad economic reports of USD, EUR has gained quite a good momentum as well which helped the currency to climb much higher after a certain corrective volatile structure in place. Recently USD Core Durable Goods orders report was published with an increase at 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at 0.4% and Durable Goods Orders showed worse figure at -6.8% from the positive previous value of 6.4% which was expected to be at -6.0%. FED Chair Yellen also could not provide any more clues to signal hawkish sentiment of the economic decision which also leads to further weakness of the USD. In the weekend, Draghi had his speech where he explained how happy he is with the current economic condition of EUR and they are on the way to achieve the inflation target soon which leads to a GAP in the market in today's opening and powered the bullish bias of the market in this pair. Today EUR M3 Money Supply report was published with a decreased figure at 4.5% from the previous value of 5.0% which was expected to be at 4.9% and Private Loans report was published unchanged at 2.6% which was expected to increase to 2.7%. On the USD side, today Goods Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to show a greater deficit at -64.5B from the previous figure of -64.0B and Prelim Wholesale Inventories report is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.7%. To sum up, USD is expected to gain some grounds of EUR for a shorter term but overall EUR is expected to gain more in the coming days as of the current market sentiment and economic structure of the economies.
Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the support area of 1.1820-50. Currently, the price is expected to retrace towards the support area before pushing up much higher towards the recent resistance of 1.2140. As the price remains above the support area and dynamic level of 20 EMA the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 28, 2017
2017-08-28
NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The technical picture of the pair is positive as the prices recorded higher tops and higher bottoms since August 24. The bullish cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index is supported by the rising trend line.
To sum up, as long as 0.7205 holds on the downside, look for a further advance to 0.7260 and even to 0.7280 in extension.
The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 0.7260, 0.7280, and 0.7315
Support levels: 0.7185, 0.7160, and 0.7130
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 28, 2017
2017-08-28
Daily Outlook
In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).
However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested on August 16.
On the other hand, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal.
Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 28, 2017
2017-08-28
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.1850 and 1.2000-1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection can be anticipated.
On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 should be watched for a valid BUY entry if a bearish pullback occurs soon.
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