2017-11-20
Overview
Silver price succeeded to reach our first target at 17.43, reinforcing the expectations of a further bullish trend on the intraday- and short-term basis. We are waiting until this level is breached to confirm that the bullish wave is extended towards 18.30. Please be aware that the EMA50 provides the positive support to the price. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions, conditioned by the price stability above 16.56. The expected trading range for today is between 17.00 support and 17.43 resistance.
Daily analysis of Gold for November 20, 2017
2017-11-20
Overview
Gold price succeeded to reach our first expected target at 1,299.20, showing that a slight bearish bias is now affected by stochastic negativity. The metal is waiting to gain enough positive momentum to push the price to breach the mentioned level and open the way towards 1,321.50 that represents our next main target. In general, we still suggest the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions on condition that the price holds above 1,281.17. Breaking this level will push the price to test 1,263.15 areas again before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 1,281.00 support and 1,305.00 resistance.
Daily analysis of USD/JPY for November 20, 2017
2017-11-20
Overview
The USD/JPY pair resumed its trading lower after confirming a break of 23.6% Fibonacci correction level at 113.00 to reach the second correctional level at 111.90 which represents 38.2% Fibonacci correction level for the rise from 107.31 to 114.73. This urges caution from the nearest trading as breaking this level will push the price to decline deeper with a downward target of 111.00 directly. The EMA50 forms continuous negative pressure against the price, which supports the chances of extending the bearish wave in the upcoming sessions, especially after breaking the correctional bearish channel's support that appears on the chart. This gives us an idea of the bearish trend for today. We take into consideration that breaching 113.00 will stop the current negative pressure and push the price to regain its main bullish track again. The expected trading range for today is between 111.00 support and 113.00 resistance.
Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for November 20, 2017
2017-11-20
Overview
The GBP/JPY pair lost its positive momentum, which forces it to provide new sideways trading, approaching the support at 147.35. The stability of the moving average 55 near this support increases its strength against the current trading, which decreases the possibility of suffering new unexpected losses. Therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering new positive momentum that allows it to renew the bullish attempts, targeting 150.00 level initially reaching to 151.50 in the upcoming period. The expected trading range for today is between 147.40 and 150.00
Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 20, 2017
2017-11-20
Technical outlook:
The EUR/USD pair is still into its corrective rally that began from 1.1550 levels earlier. It has clearly bounced right at the back side of the trend line resistance as seen here and producing a morning star since then. The overall wave count is still offering 2 probable scenarios. Higher probability scenario suggests the pair has produces a 5 waves leading diagonal from 1.2092 through 1.1500 levels, terminating into wave (1). The subsequent rally is been working to terminate into wave (2), which could potentially reach 1.1975 or 1.2050 levels as shown here (red lines). An alternate scenario suggests that the entire drop from 1.2092 through 1.1500 levels could be corrective (ABC-X-ABC, double zigzag) and that leaves doors open through new highs or another ABC corrective rally before dropping sharply. In both the above scenario, a common point could be a rally at least through 1.1900/50 levels. We would recommend a short term change in the trading plan.
Trading plan:
1. Remain short with a risk above 1.1860 and target 1.1700.
2. Then go long with risk at 1.1550 and target 1.1950.
US Dollar Index chart setups:
Technical outlook:
The US Dollar Index is supposedly still providing a simple wave count as compared to its counterpart EURUSD. The rally from 91.00 through 95.00/20 levels was unfolded into 5 waves and hence impulse. The subsequent drop after that has found support at the fibonacci 0.382 of the entire rally as seen here. The pair could still extend its rally through 94.50 levels before finding strong resistance and then drop towards 92.60 levels which is fibonacci 0.618 support of the earlier rally. Looking at the entire structure, the US Dollar Index is producing a probable down gartley, within the larger up gartley and hence a classic example of trends and counter trends. Price resistance should be strong around 95.00 levels while support is strong around 92.60 levels respectively.
Trading plan:
1. Remain long from last week with risk below 93.40 targeting 94.50/60
2. Then short with risk above 95.20, targeting 92.80.
Fundamental outlook:
Please watch out for Mr Draghi's speech at Brussels at 09:00 AM and 1100 AM EST today.
Good luck!
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 20, 2017
2017-11-20
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
Trade Recommendations
Recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This scenario remains valid as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.
On the other hand, the current price levels around 1.1850 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if enough bearish momentum is maintained. ( Note the shooting-star daily candlestick of Wednesday).
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 20, 2017
2017-11-20
Daily Outlook
A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).
Trade recommendations:
If the current bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.
S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.
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