2017-11-30
Wave summary:
EUR/JPY has bounced back and is again trading near resistance at 133.24. A clear break above this resistance, will call for a new rally closer to 133.71 before renewed downside pressure should be expected. The top at 134.50 should remain safe.
Only a direct break below minor support at 132.78 we add renewed downside pressure towards 131.14 and below.
R3: 133.71
R2: 133.46
R1: 133.24
Pivot: 132.78
S1: 132.46
S2: 131.95
S3: 131.70
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 132.55 with stop placed at 133.35.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 30, 2017
2017-11-30
Wave summary:
EUR/NZD tried to break below short-term important support at 1.7100, which failed and the result is a bounce back to near the top at 1.7393. We expect this resistance will continue to protect the upside for renewed downside pressure towards 1.7100 and a clear break below will call for a decline towards 1.6615 to complete wave ii.
Only a direct break above important resistance at 1.7408 will force a revision of our long-term count a call for a direct rally towards 1.8000.
R3: 1.7408
R2: 1.7394
R1: 1.7355
Pivot: 1.7300
S1: 1.7270
S2: 1.7213
S3: 1.7158
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 1.7200 with our stop placed at 1.7400.
Fundamental analysis of NZD/USD for November 30, 2017
2017-11-30
NZD/USD has been quite bearish recently as expected. It was supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA which keeps the price low along the way. According to the RBZ Financial Stability report published recently the New Zealand economy is stated as stable by RBNZ Governor Spencer but there are certain international risks related to growing asset prices and high levels of debt in several countries. On the other hand, USD has been in a quite indecisive mode with the upcoming rate hike in December due to lower inflation rate which confused the market sentiment. However, the recent economic reports and events had been quite hawkish resulting to further gains on the USD side. Today in New Zealand the ANZ Business Confidence Report was published with a greater deficit at -39.3 from the previous figure of -10.1 which helped USD to gain better momentum over NZD. On the USD side, Yellen was quite positive with her speech about development in employment and expecting to have consistent growth in the coming months as well. Today the US Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 241k from the previous figure of 239k. Besides, the Core PCE Price Index report is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Personal Spending is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 1.0%. Furthermore, the Personal Income is also expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.4%. Chicago PMI report is forecasted to decrease to 62.2 from the previous figure of 66.2 and the Natural Gas Storage is expected to be published with a decrease in deficit at -37B from the previous figure of -46B. Additionally, FOMC Member Quarles is going to speak today about the upcoming interest rate decisions and monetary policy which is expected to be quite hawkish in nature. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to gain over NZD despite having mixed forecast for the economic reports to be published today. The growth of the US economy seems quite slow but in comparison to New Zealand it is quite strong to dominate the further momentum in the pair.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently in the process of breaking below the 0.6850 support level with a daily close which is expected to lead to further bearish momentum in the pair with target towards 0.6670 support area. The price has been quite responsive with the dynamic level along the way since it bounced off the 0.7450 area and as the price is contained by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance, the impulsive bearish pressure is expected to continue further.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 30, 2017
2017-11-30
Overview:
As expected, the USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9818. Since the price is above this level, the market is still in an uptrend. Furthermore, the trend is still strong above the moving average (100). The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.9818 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.9882. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.9882, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.9910 in order to test the daily resistance 2. On the other hand, if the USD/CHF pair succeeds to break through the support level of 0.9818 today, the market will decline further to 0.9778 in order to retest the doubl bottom on the H1 chart. Also, it should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.9946.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 30, 2017
2017-11-30
Overview:
The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6881. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6881 (this level of 0.6881 coincides with the double top) to the bottom around 0.6830. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6881 followed by 0.6909, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6819. Also, the level of 0.6843 represents a daily pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6862 towards the first support level at 0.6819 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6819, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6819 towards the next targets of 0.6799 and 0.6780. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6909, then this scenario may be invalidated.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for November 30, 2017
2017-11-30
USD/CHF has been quite bullish recently after bouncing off the 0.98 support area. The bullish move was quite corrective in nature showing no impulsive momentum. The pair is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance, willing to push the price lower. Today, several positive economic reports were published in Switzerland which helped the currency to gain momentum against USD. Today Switzerland's GDP report was published with an increase to 0.6% as expected from the previous value of 0.4%, KOF Economic Barometer was published with an increase to 110.3 from the previous figure of 109.8 which was expected to decrease to 109.5 but Retail Sales report was quite a setback publishing with a negative value of -3.0% from the previous positive value of 0.5% which was expected to have a slight decrease to 0.3%. Despite the worse Retail Sales report, the Swiss currency gained good momentum against USD recently which indicates that CHF is starting to recover its losses once again. On the USD side, recent economic reports and events were quite positive for the economy which helped the currency to gain ground against CHF, though sustaining the consistent gain is a big question here. Today, US Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 241k from the previous figure of 239k, Core PCE Price Index is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Personal Spending is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 1.0%, Personal Income is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.4%, Chicago PMI report is expected to decrease to 62.2 from the previous figure of 66.2, and Natural Gas Storage is expected to reveal a smaller deficit to -37B from the previous figure of -46B. Moreover, FOMC Member Quarles is due to speak today about interest rate decisions and monetary policies. He is likely to be quite hawkish in nature. As of the current scenario, USD has mixed forecasts because of the upcoming economic reports and events. So, any positive readings of the economic reports will lead to gains on USD with an indication of further dominance over CHF in the coming days. Otherwise, CHF may take the lead further.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the 0.9860 price level having the dynamic level of 20 EMA holding the price as resistance. The price has been quite bullish recently which is expected to continue with the bearish trend if the price breaks below 0.9800 support area with a daily close with a target towards 0.9450. On the other hand, if the price remains above the 0.9800 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further and price may surge higher with a target towards 1.01 resistance area in the coming days.
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