2017-11-20
EUR/USD has been quite bearish recently after bouncing off the event price area of 1.1850. Due to recent Germany political issue, the Eurozone has been affected which lead to volatility in the pair and weakness of EUR against USD recently. ECB President Draghi has been quite positive with the long-term growth and overcoming the current obstacles. Today EUR German PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3% and German Buba Monthly report is going to be published which will include the current and future analysis of the economy on a financial institutions viewpoint which is expected to be neutral in nature. Moreover, today ECB President Draghi is going to speak today as well on future policies and interest rates which is expected to be hawkish in nature. On the USD side, today we do not have any economic report or event to have an impact on the market but this week Core Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims and FOMC Meeting is going to be held which is expected to be in favor of the currency which may result to further gain against EUR in the coming days. To sum up, today ECB might be a positive push for the EUR if everything goes well as expected which might result to further correction in the pair or else any negative outcome will result to further gain on the USD side ahead of the upcoming interest rate hike on December.
Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA and showing some bearish pressure after being rejected off the 1.1850 resistance area. The price is currently expected to push lower towards 1.1660 and later towards 1.1300 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1850 with a daily close the bearish pressure is expected to continue further.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20, 2017
2017-11-20
Wave summary:
EUR/JPY has finally broken clearly below the short-term important support at 131.60 to confirm that the (D) of the huge triangle consolidation has completed at 134.50 and wave (E) now is developing towards the ideal target near 123.43.
The former support at 131.60 has now turned into resistance and will ideally cap the upside for more downside pressure towards 128.91 and below.
R3: 133.13
R2: 132.75
R1: 132.30
Pivot: 131.60
S1: 131.14
S2: 130.81
S3: 130.39
Trading recommendation:
We sold EUR at 133.10 and will move our stop to break-even.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 20, 2017
2017-11-20
Wave summary:
We have seen a nice rally above 1.7216, but something is not right... The momentum indicators are not confirming the rally, which had us review the rally from 1.5227. The rally from 1.5227 to 1.7408 could be counted as a complete impulsive rally (see above) If this is correct, then a deeper corrective decline closer to at least 1.6614 and possibly even closer to 1.6298 should be expected in wave ii before the next rally higher.
Short-term a break below minor resistance at 1.7100 will favor this outcome.
R3: 1.7408
R2: 1.7325
R1: 1.7217
Pivot: 1.7100
S1: 1.7058
S2: 1.6916
S3: 1.6805
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6770 and we will move our stop higher to 1.7085
Wave analysis of gold for November 20, 2017
2017-11-20
The Gold price has once again reached the upper boundary of the short-term trading range it is in since late October. The price action, however, does not look impulsive so far as the form of the rise is full of overlapping three-wave structures. This implies that this upward move is part of a bigger downward correction.
Blue lines - trading range
The Gold price has been making three-wave moves since late October lows. This is not a bullish sign. Support is at $1,277 and resistance at $1,294. Gold price could move towards $1,300 but I continue to believe that the downward correction from $1,350 is not over yet.
Red line - resistance
Blue line- support
Magenta line - long-term resistance
The Gold price has broken above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators and the downward sloping red trend line. However, the most important resistance is the Daily cloud. A rejection here will support my view that a new low towards $1,250 is needed in order to complete the corrective phase.
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