2017-11-21
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, the evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).
The bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, a significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied to the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
Trade Recommendations
Recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This scenario remains valid as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.
On the other hand, recent price levels around 1.1850 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if enough bearish momentum is maintained. (Note the shooting-star daily candlestick of Wednesday).
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 21, 2017
2017-11-21
Daily Outlook
A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why the further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 (Intraday Key-level).
Trade recommendations:
If the current bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.
S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 21, 2017
2017-11-21
Wave summary:
We continue to look for more downside pressure in wave (E) of the huge triangle consolidation. The ideal downside target for wave (E) is seen near 123.43.
Short-term, we expect minor resistance near 132.60 to be able to cap the upside for renewed downside pressure through support at 131.14 confirming the expected decline towards 128.91 on the way lower to 123.43.
R3: 133.13
R2: 132.75
R1: 132.32
Pivot: 131.80
S1: 131.14
S2: 130.81
S3: 130.39
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 133.10 with our stop placed at break-even
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 21, 2017
2017-11-21
Wave summary:
The most likely scenario remains, that wave i completed with the test of 1.7408 and wave ii lower to 1.6619 now is developing. Short-term a break below minor support at 1.7209 and more importantly a break below support at 1.7157 is needed to confirm that wave i has peaked and wave ii lower is developing.
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6770 and we will move our stop + revers higher to 1.7200 and we will place our take-profit + reverse at 173.25 - if this order is done our new stop will be placed at 174.15.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for November 21, 2017
2017-11-21
USD/JPY is currently trading inside the corrective range of 111.60 to 113.00 where the market is currently following a bearish bias. JPY has been dominating over USD for last few days. The pair is expected to be indecisive in the coming days as the market sentiment is currently quite USD biased amid the likelihood for the rate hike decision in December. This week, FOMC Meeting is due which is also expected to help in the gains of the USD against all the currencies in the market, whereas the JPY gains might get some interruptions along the way. Today, Japan's All Industry Activity report was published with a negative value of -0.5% decreasing from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.4%. The worse-than-expected economic report did not affect JPY's growth and the bearish bias is still intact. On the other hand, today US Existing Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 5.42M from the previous figure of 5.39M. If the economic report comes better than expected, then we might see some spikes in the market today which might lead to gains on the USD side. As of the current scenario, JPY is likely to gain some momentum in short term as worse economic report could not stop its gains. So any positive economic report from the US will have an impact on JPY gains which may change the current bias in the market. The market is still quite indecisive and any strong economic outcome on either side will have its upcoming directional move.
Now let us have a look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure, bouncing off the dynamic level of 20 EMA below the horizontal resistance of 113.00. This area has been quite corrective. The volatile phase of price action earlier is expected to continue its history as well in the coming days. The price is projected to proceed down towards 111.60 support area before it bounces off the level with a bullish pressure towards 113.00 and later towards 114.50 resistance area in the coming days. The 111.60 level has been quite strong earlier, showing some bullish pressure off the level which is expected to hold the price this time as well.
Corrective mode
21 November 2017, USD/JPY
Wave Analysis:
Yesterday, we saw a slight correction of the impulsive wave (E) to the upperside but this wave is still very bearish on the weekly chart. Today, we expect a possible extension of this correction to the upperside but should not go beyond the upper resistive trend line, where we'll be looking to resell the impulsive wave (E) with an ultimate target at 107.00. If the price can violated the immediate trend line, then we'll wait for a break above 114.00, to confirm a possible rally towards 116.00. This pair should be traded alongside CADJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY and CHFJPY. These pairs have a strong positive correlation and will move in the same direction today.
Trade Recommendations:
Wait for the current correction to end the short us dollar around the upper trendline
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