2017-11-28
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
However, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hinders further bearish decline as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.
Trade Recommendations
The current price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if signs of bearish rejection are maintained.
S/L should be placed above 1.2030. T/P levels to be located at 1.1850, 1.1700 and 1.1590.
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 28, 2017
2017-11-28
Daily Outlook
A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 provided that bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).
Otherwise, further bearish decline would be expected towards 0.6680.
Trade recommendations:
If the recent bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.
S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 28, 2017
2017-11-28
Overview:
Last week, the USD/CHF pair fell from the level of 0.9870 towards 0.9800. Today, the pivot point of the USD/CHF pair is seen at the price of 0.9831. It should be noted that the currently price is seen at the daily pivot. Volatility is very high for that the USD/CHF pair is still moving between 0.9831 and 0.9783 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.9831 and 0.9870, which coincides with the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 0.9831. Thereupon, the price spot of 0.9831 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the USD/CHF pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.9831, sell below 0.9831 with the first targets at 0.9783 and 0.9743. However, the stop loss should be set above the level of 0.9910.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for November 28, 2017
2017-11-28
EUR/USD has been impulsively bullish recently after bouncing off from 1.1700 price area which led the price to climb higher above 1.1850 resistance area. Currently, the price is showing some bearish pressure in the bullish trend which is expected to push the price lower in the coming days. Due to the dovish rhetoric in the recent FOMC meeting, USD weakened which encouraged EUR to gain momentum despite having a weak status in the market currently. Today, German Import Prices report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.9%, M3 Money Supply is expected to be unchanged at 5.1%, Private Loans are expected to have a slight increase to 2.8% from the previous value of 2.7%, and German GfK Consumer Climate report is expected to have a slight increase to 10.8 from the previous figure of 10.7. The forecast of the eurozone's economic reports today is quite mixed whereas any negative result will result in further weakness and gains on the USD side. As for USD, today FOMC officials Dudley, Harker and FED Chair nominee Powell are going to speak about the nation's key interest rates and future monetary policy where December Rate hike possibility will be discussed. Currently, Fed officials are expected to make hawkish remarks as a December Rate hike was quite confirmed earlier. Additionally, CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 123.9 from the previous figure of 125.9, Richmond Manufacturing Index report is expected to increase to 14 from the previous figure of 12. As of the current scenario, the economic events in the US are expected to have a benign impact on the market's upcoming directional movement where the expectations are quite positive, but any negative outcome may lead to further weakness of USD against EUR in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price was bearish yesterday having a good amount of bullish rejection along the way. The price is currently residing above 1.1850 price level which is expected to push below 1.1850 area towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA. As the price remains below 1.1960 price area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for November 28, 2017
2017-11-28
USD/JPY has been quite bearish recently after bouncing off the 114.50 resistance area and is currently residing at support area of 110.80 to 111.70. Currently the price is quite indecisive inside the range showing no directional bias. Recently, JPY gained over USD despite a worse economic report of SPPI published with the value at 0.8% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.9%. The gain of JPY amid the weak economic report explains the weakness of USD ahead of the upcoming Rate Hike possibility in December. Recent dovish rhetoric in FOMC minutes shifted the market sentiment against USD that resulted in further weakness against JPY. On the USD side, today FOMC Members Dudley, Harker and FED Chair nominee Powell are going to speak about the upcoming key interest rates changes and monetary policies. Following their remarks, a possibility of the December Rate hike will be discussed. At present, the Fed officials are expected to be hawkish in nature as the December Rate hike was confirmed earlier. Additionally, CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 123.9 from the previous figure of 125.9, Richmond Manufacturing Index report is expected to increase to 14 from the previous figure of 12. To sum up, today there are several high impact economic reports and events in the US yet to be published that are likely to provide a hint about upcoming moves in this pair. As the pair is quite indecisive now, any impulsive break above or below the range will lead to a further movement on the preferred direction.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing between the support area range of 110.80 to 111.70. As the pair is trading sideways, the consolidation and indecision is likely to unfold. As of the current situation, if the price breaks above 111.70 with a daily close, then we will consider buy positions with a target towards 114.50. Otherwise, if the price breaks below 110.80 with a daily close, then we consider sell positions with a target towards 108.50 support area.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 28, 2017
2017-11-28
Overview:
On the four-hour chart, the NZD/USD pair bullish trend from the support levels of 0.6830 and 0.6880. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.6880, which coincides with a golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.6880. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.6880. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.6880) with the first target at the level of 0.6993. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.6993. We should see the pair climbing towards the next resistance (0.7043) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.6830.
USD/JPY analysis for November 28, 2017
2017-11-28
Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 111.30. According to the 30M time - frame, I found that price is testing an upward trendline (resistance), which is a sign that buying looks risky.Also, I found a hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 111.73 (pivot support 1) and at the price of 110.36 (pivot support 2).
Resistance levels:
R1: 111.57
R2: 112.06
R3: 112.42
Support levels:
S1: 110.73
S2: 110.36
S3: 109.87
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
Resistance levels:
R1: 111.57
R2: 112.06
R3: 112.42
Support levels:
S1: 110.73
S2: 110.36
S3: 109.87
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
Get Bonus No Deposite in your Trading Account now and add this currency pair to your forex portfolio, enjoy your trading with us!
No comments:
Post a Comment