2017-11-29
USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. the pair keeps trading on the upside while approaching the overhead resistance at 111.70 (around the high of November 27). Extra support is provided by the ascending 20-period moving average, which stands above the 50-period one. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is well directed in the 60s, indicating continued upward momentum for the pair. Strong intraday bullishness persists, and the pair should target 111.90 upon reaching 111.70. Key support is located at 111.10.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 111.10 with a target of 111.70.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 111.10, Take Profit: 111.70
Resistance levels: 111.70, 111.90 and 112.30 Support Levels: 110.80, 110.55, 110.30
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for November 29, 2017
2017-11-29
USD/CAD has been quite corrective recently even though USD has been quite weak due to recent dovish economic reports and events. Recently CAD has been struggling with the gains having lower oil prices along with worse economic reports published. Today on the USD side, Prelim GDP report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 3.3% from the previous value of 3.0%, Prelim GDP Price Index is expected to be unchanged at 2.2%, Pending Home Sales report is expected to increase to 1.1% from the previous value of 0.0%, Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show greater deficit at -2.5M from the previous figure of -1.9M and FOMC Member Dudley and Yellen is going to testify today about the upcoming interest rates decision and inflation challenge being faced by the economy which is expected to be quite neutral in nature. On the CAD side, recently BOC Governor Poloz spoke about the challenges being faced by the economy including household debt increase, low ratio mortgage and long-term growth with another Rate hike in coming few months which is expected to help the currency gain stronger over USD. Moreover, CAD Current account report is going to be published tomorrow which previously was negative at -16.3B and High impact economic reports to be published on Friday which includes Employment Change, GDP and Unemployment Rate. There are a lot of high impact economy reports and events to be published in both currencies of this pair which is expected to inject a good amount of volatility in the market this week. As of the current scenario, CAD is expected to gain good momentum by the end of the week which is expected to help the currency to gain against USD in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 200 EMA whereas the price had bearish regular divergence recently which is expected to push the price much lower in the coming days towards 1.2450 support area. The bearish impulsive is expected to be in effect as the price breaks below 1.2750 area with a daily close. On the other hand, if the price breaks above 1.3010 resistance level with a daily close the bias is expected to change to bullish and proceed higher with the target towards 1.3220 resistance area. As the price remains below the 1.3010 and the dynamic level of 200 EMA the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for November 29, 2017
2017-11-29
AUD/USD has been quite bearish recently rejecting off the dynamic level of 20 EMA after bouncing off from 0.75 support area. Despite the recent dovish economic reports and events, USD has been stronger than AUD which does explain the severe weakness of AUD in comparison to other currencies in the market. Recently FOMC Member Kaplan spoke about how the lower inflation and rapid rate hike can effect the growth of the economy in the long term and lead to Recession. USD has been quite dovish about the upcoming rate hike in December though it is quite confirmed. Today, USD Prelim GDP report is going to be published which is expected to show a growth to 3.3% from the previous value of 3.0%, Prelim GDP Price Index is expected to be unchanged at 2.2%, Pending Home Sales report is expected to show an increase to 1.1% from the previous value of 0.0%, Crude Oil Inventories is expected to have greater negative figure of -2.5M from its previous figure of 1.9M and FOMC Member Dudley and FED Chair Yellen is going to speak about the upcoming interest rate issues and policies whereas any positive outcome is expected to help with the gains of USD against AUD in the coming days. On the AUD side, today there were no economic events or reports to impact the market momentum but tomorrow AUD HIA New Home Sales report is going to be published which previously was at -6.1%, Private Capital Expenditure is expected to show an increase to 1.1% from the previous value of 0.8%, Building Approvals is expected to decrease to -0.9% from the previous value of 1.5% and Private Sector Credit is also expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.3%. Most of the economic reports are expected to be quite positive in nature, whereas if the results meet expectations or do better then we might observe some corrective price action above the support area of 0.75. To sum up, USD is going to have some high impact economic reports and events today which is expected inject some volatility in the market whereas upcoming AUD economic reports are also quite positively forecasted which may help AUD to regain its momentum against USD. Currently, the market bias is quite neutral in nature but USD may have an edge of AUD if today's economic events result in any positive outcome with the upcoming rate hike decision in December.
Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA with confluence having lower highs along the way which is expected to reach 0.7500 support area soon. If the price breaks below 0.7500 support area with a daily close then further bearish pressure with the target towards 0.7350 is expected. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.7600 area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 29, 2017
2017-11-29
Wave summary:
We continue to look for a break below short-term important support at 131.14 confirming that wave (D) has completed and wave (E) lower to the ideal downside target at 123.43 is developing.
Short-term resistance is seen at 132.41 and again at 132.55 that should be able to cap the upside for a break below 131.70 towards 131.14.
R3: 133.24
R2: 132.55
R1: 132.41
Pivot: 131.70
S1: 131.14
S2: 130.55
S3: 129.86
Trading recommendation:
We sold EUR at 132.55 and has placed our stop at 133.35.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 29, 2017
2017-11-29
Wave summary:
EUR/NZD spiked below support at 1.7096 yesterday, but failed to follow through. We expect another test of this short-term important support soon will be seen. This time a successful break below is expected for a continuation lower towards 1.6615 in wave ii.
That said, we must allow for the correction from 1.7077 to extend closer to 1.7272 before turning lower again.
R3: 1.7272
R2: 1.7234
R1: 1.7210
Pivot: 1.7139
S1: 1.7077
S2: 1.7045
S3: 1.7000
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 1.7200 with stop placed at 1.7400.
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