2017-12-20
Wave summary:
EUR/JPY remains locked in no man's land between the pivot support at 131.14 and pivot resistance at 134.50.
As long as resistance at 134.50 is able to cap the upside, we will stay slightly in favor of ultimate break below 131.14 confirming that wave (D) completed at 134.50 and wave (E) lower towards 123.43 is developing.
If, however, resistance at 134.50 is taken out, that will call for an extension of wave (D) towards 137.37.
R3: 134.50
R2: 134.38
R1: 133.89
Pivot: 132.70
S1: 132.10
S2: 131.70
S3: 131.14
Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 133.80 was hit for a small loss of 40 pips.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
Wave summary:
EUR/NZD has rallied nicely and more upside pressure is expected through resistance seen at 1.7107 for a retest of the 1.7479 high on the way towards 1.7770.
Support is now seen at 1.6943 and should ideally protect the downside for the expected rally higher, but even if this support is broken, then back-up support is seen at 1.6883.
R3: 1.7265
R2: 1.7167
R1: 1.7107
Pivot: 1.6943
S1: 1.6883
S2: 1.6802
S3: 1.6744
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6873 and we will move our stop higher to 1.6795.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
EUR/JPY has been quite bullish this week residing inside the corrective range of 131.40 to 134.40. EUR has been quite impulsive with the recent gains against JPY. EUR found support from the eurozone's upbeat economic reports whereas JPY is struggling to gain sustainable momentum. Today, Japan's All Industry Activity report was published with an increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.5% but it could not meet the expectation of +0.4%. The positive economic report helped the currency to gain some momentum over EUR but keeping this pressure is going to be a bit of a challenge for JPY. On the EUR side, today German PPI was published with a decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%, Current Account report is yet to be published which is expected to decrease to 33.4B from the previous figure of 37.8B, Belgian NBB Business Climate is expected to increase to 2.0 from the previous figure of 1.6, and German Buba President Weidmann is going to speak about the outlook for the monetary policy and interest rates decision. His rhetoric is expected to be quite neutral in nature. As for the current scenario, EUR has a lot to offer today despite the worse economic report from Germany. As the global trading day progresses, any positive economic report or event today will add up to the bullish gains in the pair. On the other hand, negative readings of economic reports today will help JPY to gain momentum in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA inside the range of 131.40 to 134.40 area. The price is following the bullish bias, aiming to move higher towards 135.50 as the price remains above 131.40 support level with a daily close. On the other hand, if the price breaks below 131.40 with a daily close, then the bears are likely to take over and push the price lower towards 129.80 support area.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
USD/CAD is currently trading below the resistance area of 1.29 after recent impulsive bullish pressure. The price has been trapped inside the corrective range of 1.27 to 1.29 for a few months. Meanwhile, bulls have been the most dominant side with consistent gains. Recently due to the Federal Funds Rate hike, USD gained good momentum over CAD, so that the price is expected to move much higher in the coming days. Nevertheless, any positive economic report from Canada this month may help to offset the impulsive bullish pressure. Today, Canada's Wholesale Sales report is expected to show an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 1.2% which is expected to have a minimal impact on the CAD progress in the coming days. On the USD side, today Existing Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 5.53M from the previous figure of 5.48M and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit to -3.6M from the previous figure of -5.1M. Additionally, on Thursday (tomorrow) US Final GDP report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 3.3%. Besides, Canada's CPI is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1% and Core Retail Sales is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.3%. As for the current scenario, the pair is likely to trade with higher volatility by tomorrow. So, we can have some decent understanding about the upcoming directional movement in the pair. Though USD has already have the upper hand over CAD, any positive economic report from Canada tomorrow may lead to strong CAD resilience inside the corrective range area.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has recently rejected off the resistance level of 1.29 which led to further bearish pressure which is currently visible today. The pair is trading above the dynamic level of 20 EMA inside the corrective range between 1.27 and 1.29. As the price remains below 1.29 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue to push the price towards 1.27 in the coming days. In any case, if the price breaks above 1.2900, the bullish pressure is expected to strengthen and push the price higher towards 1.30 and later towards 1.3250 resistance area in the future.
Remain long towards 114.29
20 December 2017, USD/JPY
Technical Observation:
Since the beginning of this week, the line 112.00 has contained the price above it and is not showing any signs of being breached any time soon. While the price is above this line, my interest lies only on possible buy orders towards 114.29. As it is on the daily chart above, long positions looks more ideal and can be advice. However, a breach below 112.00 may mean we're going short towards 108.32 which is a key daily demand line. My advice, remain long towards 114.29.
Technical Levels
Resistance levels
R1: 114.04
R2: 114.62
R3: 116.22
Pivot
112.52
Support Levels
S1: 109.82
S2: 111.42
S3: 112.44
Trade Signal
Remain long towards 114.29
Remain long towards 114.29
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