2017-12-20
All our targets which were predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair is still expected to trade in a lower range. The pair is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is bearish and calls for further downside.
Therefore, as long as 0.6995 holds on the upside, look for a further drop with targets at 0.6940 and 0.6920 in extension.
The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 0.7015, 0.7030, and 0.7060
Support levels: 0.6940, 0.6920, and 0.6875
Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
AUD/USD has been impulsively bullish recently after bouncing off the 0.75 support area. Despite the recent USD Federal Funds Rate hike, AUD was unstoppable with its gains which is proceeding optimistically towards 0.7750-0.7800 resistance area. AUD has been quite positive with the recent economic reports and events including Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The employment change has been a remarkable positive report for AUD which helped the currency to gain good momentum over USD resulting in more bullish pressure. Today AUD MI Leading Index report was published with an unchanged value of 0.1%, which was not quite helpful for the currency to strengthen the bullish momentum but could help to sustain it well by now. On the USD side, today Existing Home Sales report is going to be published with an increase to 5.53M from the previous figure of 5.48M and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit to -3.6M from the previous figure of -5.1M. Moreover, tomorrow USD Final GDP report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 3.3%, where any positive change can lead to bullish counter by the end of the week. As of the current scenario, AUD has been the dominant currency in the pair despite the recent USD rate hike which was expected to inject volatility in the market. As there are certain high impact economic reports on USD yet to be published, there are certain chance of an upcoming counter in the impulsive bullish trend by the end of the week.
Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently quite corrective with the gains after an impulsive bullish move bouncing off the 0.75 support area. The price is residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well which is expected to push the price higher towards the resistance area of 0.7750-0.7800. The price has already breached the recent lower high which as a result opened the doors for more bulls in the market taking it as an established bullish trend. As the price remains above 0.75 support area the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. Despise of recent pullback, the pair is still trading above its rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is mixed with a bullish bias. The downside potential shoulder is limited by the key support at 150.85.
Hence, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a further upside to 151.90 and even to 152.25 in extension.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 150.85 with the target at 150.40
Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 150.85, Take Profit: 151.90
Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 151.90, 152.25, and 152.70
Support levels: 150.40, 150.15, and 149.60
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
Overview:
The trend of NZD/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.6927 and 0.7034. Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 0.6927 and 0.6872 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. Last week, the market moved from its bottom at 0.6927 and continued to rise towards the top of 0.7034. Today, in the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.7034, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 0.7034 (the level of 0.7034 coincides with the double top too). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.7034 with the first target at 0.6927. If the trend breaks the support level of 0.6927, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.6872 in order to test the daily support 2. Also, it should be noted that the double bottom is seen at the point of 0.6822.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
Overview:
The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 1.0037 or higher. The price is still trading around the spot of 0.6948 and 0.7026. The NZD/USD pair will continue to rise from the level of 0.6948. The support is found at the level of 0.6948, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 0.6948, while immediate resistance is seen at 0.7026. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 0.6948. So, buy above the level of 0.6948 with the first target at 0.7026 in order to test the daily resistance 1. Also, the level of 0.7026 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the NZDUSD pair to climb from 0.7026 to 0.7065 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6948, a further decline to 0.6820 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
We will retain our yesterday's outlook of the pair. The pair retreated from the key resistance at 0.9885 and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.
Therefore, as long as 0.9885 holds on the upside, look for a return to 0.9835. A break below of this level would trigger a new decline to 0.9815.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9885, Take Profit: 0.9835
Resistance levels: 0.9905, 0.9935, and 0.9975
Support levels: 0.9835, 0.9815, and 0.9795
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
Daily Outlook
A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.
Moreover, further bullish advance should be expected towards 0.7150 if enough bullish momentum is expressed above the price level of 0.7050.
Trade Recommendations:
An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the chart indicating high probability of bullish reversal.
That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 was considered for a short-term BUY entry. Bullish persistence above 0.6950 (neckline) is mandatory to pursue towards next bullish targets.
S/L should be moved to 0.6900 to secure some profits. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050 and 0.7110.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.1900.
Trade Recommendations
The price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 were suggested for a valid short-term SELL entry. It's already running in profits.
S/L should be lowered to 1.1870 to offset the associated risk. Remaining T/P levels to be located at 1.1700 and 1.1590.
EUR/USD analysis for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1858. According to the 15M time – frrame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of 1.1848, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1825, 1.1817 and at the price of 1.1809.
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.1867
R2: 1.1895
R3: 1.1940
Support levels:
S1: 1.1795
S2: 1.1750
S3: 1.1723
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
GBP/USD analysis for December 20, 2017
2017-12-20
Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3413. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frrame, I found a successful rejection of pivot resistance 1 at the price of 1.3415, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential sleling opporunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3345 and at the price of 1.3302.
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.1415
R2: 1.3444
R3: 1.3486
Support levels:
S1: 1.3345
S2: 1.3302
S3: 1.3370
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
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