2018-01-16
Wave summary:
We continue to regard the rally from 133.01 as corrective and is looking for a break below minor support at 135.36 and more importantly a break below support at 135.00 as confirmation that this correction has completed and a new decline 131.11 is developing.
At no point should a break above 136.64 be seen under this count.
R3: 137.37
R2: 136.64
R1: 136.32
Pivot: 135.36
S1: 135.00
S2: 134.80
S3: 134.35
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 134.75 with our stop placed at 136.75. Upon a break below 135.00 we will lower our stop to 136.15.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 16, 2018
2018-01-16
Wave summary:
EUR/NZD continues to display a impulsive pattern from the low at 1.6518. Short term, we are looking for more upside pressure towards at least 1.6891 and possibly even closer to 1.6972 to complete this first impulsive rally from 1.6518. This next rally should set the stage for a corrective decline towards at least 1.6800 and likely even closer to 1.6690 before turning higher again.
R3: 1.6972
R2: 1.6941
R1: .6891
Pivot: 1.6781
S1: 1.6741
S2: 1.6709
S3: 1.6690
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6670. We will raise our stop to 1.6735 and we will take half profit at 1.6875 and close our position at 1.6950.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 16, 2018
2018-01-16
In Asia, Japan will release the Tertiary Industry Activity m/m and PPI y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Empire State Manufacturing Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 111.43.
Resistance. 2: 111.22.
Resistance. 1: 111.00.
Support. 1: 110.73.
Support. 2: 110.52.
Support. 3: 110.30.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 16, 2018
2018-01-16
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Italian Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance, German WPI m/m, and German Final CPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Empire State Manufacturing Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2321.
Strong Resistance:1.2314.
Original Resistance: 1.2302.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2290.
Target Inner Area: 1.2262.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2234.
Original Support: 1.2222.
Strong Support: 1.2210.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2203.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for January 16, 2018
2018-01-16
Technical outlook:
We present the bigger picture again for the EUR/USD pair. If you look closely here, the 5th wave also might be complete above 1.2200 handle. The pair has completed an impulse from January 2017 through January 2018, and if the above count holds to be true, the pair is likely to drop lower in 3 waves at least to correct the entire rally. On the flip side, the current impulse could be a part of the overall corrective rally that began in 2015. If that is the case, EUR/USD should resume its long term down trend from nearby levels. In both cases presented here, the common point is a corrective drop at least and hence one should be preparing to go short. We shall be presenting a short very soon on confirmation.
Trading plan:
Prepare to go short again.
US Dollar Index chart setups:
Technical outlook:
The US Dollar index bigger picture has been presented here on its daily chart view. The index seems to have completed 5 waves impulse from 103.80 levels through 90.30 levels respectively. There could be a bottom formed very close to where prices are right now and trigger a bull run going forward. There are two scenarios, presented here. If 5 wave impulse is complete around these levels, the index should at least produce a corrective rally (3 waves) which could push prices through 98.50 levels at least. If the current impulse is a part of the larger correction that began in 2015, then the larger uptrend should resume and push prices above 93.80 levels going forward. In both scenarios, the US Dollar Index should be poised to stage a rally through 98.50 levels at least. We shall present a case here to initiate long positions once confirmed.
Trading plan:
Please prepare to go long.
Fundamental outlook:
GBP Consumer Price Index to be out at 0430 AM EST.
Good luck!
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for January 16, 2018
2018-01-16
Recently, USD/JPY has been trading in an impulsive manner with retracements that made the price reside below 111.00 price area. Despite worse economic reports this week, JPY managed to maintain the bearish pressure against USD since the pair has bounced off the 113.50 area. Today, Japan's PPI report was published with a decrease in value to 3.1% from the previous value of 3.6% which was expected to be at 3.3% at least, but the worse result has not quite changed the market sentiment. Ahead of high impact upcoming economic reports from the US this week, JPY momentum is currently signalling an opposite price action in the coming days. Today, US Empire State Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 18.5 from the previous figure of 18.0. Though the economic report is expected to have less impact in the growth of USD, investors await a series of economic data to be published on Thursday, including Building Permits. As for the current scenario, JPY is expected to keep good momentum against USD in the future, as USD has less to offer to increase its gains in the coming days whereas the economic reports are also forecasted to have a negative impact on the USD growth. Moreover, good momentum in JPY over USD explains the severe weakness of USD in the process.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently holding below 111.00 resistance area. The USD/JPY pair is expected to decline much lower towards 109.20 support area in the coming days. A bit of correction along the way will not come as a surprise but a bearish bias is indeed quite strong. As the price remains below 111.00 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
Technical analysis of gold for January 16, 2018
2018-01-16
Gold price is trading near its 4-month highs and below long-term resistance of $1,350-60. A rejection at current levels could push price towards $1,290 or even towards $1,270 if the first support fails to hold. Trend is bullish.
Gold price is making higher highs and higher lows. Trend is bullish as price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Support is at $1,326. Resistance is at $1,346. Next important support is at $1,315-$1,305. If this support fails, price is likely to move towards $1,270-80.
Magenta line - long-term resistance
Blue line - long-term support
Gold price bounced off the weekly cloud support and is now testing the long-term resistance trend line. There are warnings for bulls by the divergence signs, but so far all weekly candles remain bullish, implying trend remains up. The steepness of the rise however should make traders cautious as a sharp pullback should follow.
Blue line - long-term support
Gold price bounced off the weekly cloud support and is now testing the long-term resistance trend line. There are warnings for bulls by the divergence signs, but so far all weekly candles remain bullish, implying trend remains up. The steepness of the rise however should make traders cautious as a sharp pullback should follow.
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