2018-01-16
Overview:
The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9745. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9745 (this level of 0.9745 coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracment levels) to the bottom around 0.9602. Today, the trend had rebounded from the bottom of 0.9602 to climp toward the level of 0.9650. Moreover, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9691 followed by 0.9745, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9602. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving br, tetween the levels of 0.9691 and 0.9553; for that we expect a range of 138 pips (0.9691 - 0.9553). If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9691, the market will decline further to 0.9553. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9553 with a view to test the daily pivot point. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9745, then this scenario may become invalidated.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 16, 2018
2018-01-16
Overview:
Pivot point : 0.7253.
The NZD/USD pair continues to climp from the price of 0.7234 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7234 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart.
The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7234. So, buy above the level of 0.7234 with the first target at 0.7277 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7310.
Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.7310 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top.
On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7234, a further decline to 0.7173 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for January 16, 2018
2018-01-16
Recently, GBP/USD has been trading in the impulsive manner with bullish gains that led the price towards 1.38 area. Today GBP is currently struggling to sustain gains due to mixed economic reports published, which undermines the bullish momentum against USD. Today, the UK CPI report was published with a slight decrease to 3.0% as expected from the previous value of 3.1%, PPI Input decreased to 0.1% from the previous value of 1.6% which was expected to be at 0.5%, RPI report showed an increase to 4.1% which was expected to be unchanged at 3.9%, Core CPI report showed a decrease to 2.5% from the previous value of 2.7% which was expected to be at 2.6%, HPI report showed value of 5.1% decreasing from the previous value of 5.4% but it was better than expectation of 4.2%, PPI Output report was unchanged at 0.4% from a decrease to 0.2% earlier, and CB Index report is yet to be published which previously was at -0.2%. On the USD side, the US is due to release several high impact economic reports including Building Permits report to be published on Thursday. But today, Empire State Manufacturing Index report is scheduled which is expected to increase to 18.5 from the previous figure of 18.0. As for the long-term scenario, GBP is expected to advance further, but at present some retracement and correction are expected in this market before the bulls hit back in the future.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently quite bearish in nature showing bearish momentum after an impulsive bullish breakout above 1.36 support area. The pair is likely to retrace back towards the support area before showing any bullish intervention to push the price much higher towards 1.40 resistance area in the coming days. If the price remains above 1.36, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
EUR/USD analysis for January 16, 2018
2018-01-16
Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.2201. According to the 30M time – frame, I found a broken 3-day upward channel, which is a sign that buying looks risky and that sellers are in control. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator in the background, which is another sign of weakness. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential downward targets. I got FR 38.2% at the price of 1.2158, FR 50% at the price of 1.2115 and FR 61.8% at the price of 1.2075.
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.2310
R2: 1.2359
R3: 1.2420
Support levels:
S1: 1.2203
S2: 1.2140
S3: 1.2095
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
Trading plan for gold and silver for January 16, 2018
2018-01-16
Technical outlook:
We have presented a weekly chart to represent a multi year consolidation of gold prices. It began in November 2015 with lows at $1,047.00 and has unfolded into 5 waves within a contracting triangle, with each wave sub dividing into 3 waves a-b-c as labelled here. The triangle might be terminating into its last wave E with the recent highs at $1,344/45 levels touched yesterday. For this A-B-C-D-E contracting triangle structure to remain intact, prices should stay below $1,357/58 levels and broadly below $1,375 levels. If the above outlook holds true, we should see prices dropping lower and breaking below $1,236 levels as the first soft target. On the flip side, a break above $1,357 levels would open doors for a test above $1,400/20 levels at least.
Trading plan:
Aggressive traders may want to remain short with stop above $1,357 levels; the target is open.
Silver chart setups:
Technical outlook:
The weekly chart setups for silver also indicate movement similar to a contracting triangle that has been since November 2015. The underlying trend has completed 5 waves as labelled here as A,B,C,D and E, with each wave sub dividing into 3 waves each. Furthermore, wave E has also tested the consolidation line of resistance at $17.40 levels before pulling back. Please note that for this wave count to hold true, prices should stay below $18.21 levels going forward. If this condition remains, we should see silver prices dropping much lower in the weeks to come. The first soft target remains at $15.60 levels though, before pulling back. From the trading point of view, it is good to prepare short positions.
Trading plan:
Aggressive traders would want to remain short with stop above $18.21 levels.
Fundamental outlook:
There are no major fundamental events for the rest of the day.
Good luck!
GBP/USD analysis for January 16, 2018
2018-01-16
Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3744. According to the 30M time – frame, I found a broken 3-day upward channel, which is a sign that buying looks risky and that sellers are in control. I also found a broken upward trendline and a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which are signs of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential downward targets. I got FR 38.2% at the price of 1.380, FR 50% at the price of 1.3640 and FE 61.8% at the price of 1.3600.
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.3835
R2: 1.3875
R3: 1.3930
Support levels:
S1: 1.3740
S2: 1.3685
S3: 1.3640
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
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