2018-02-14
Wave summary:
There's nothing new to add here. We continue to look for a spike closer to the resistance in the 134.73 - 135.38 area to complete an X-wave and turn prices lower again for a decline to the strong support near 131.20.
That said, we are painfully aware of the possibility, that EUR/JPY will continue directly lower to the support near 131.20 before a larger sideways correction should be expected.
R3: 133.79
R2: 133.36
R1: 132.92
Pivot: 132.63
S1: 132.33
S2: 131.96
S3: 131.70
Trading recommendation:
We are looking for a new selling opportunity and will sell EUR at 134.50.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 14, 2018
2018-02-14
Wave summary:
There's nothing new to add here. We continue to look for a clear break above the minor resistance at 1.7023 and, more importantly, a break above the resistance at 1.7094 confirming that the next impulsive rally higher to 1.7479 is developing on the way higher to 1.7777.
Under this count, it's essential that the support at 1.6853 is able to protect the downside, or a slightly deeper correction towards 1.6837 and maybe even closer to 1.6783 could be seen, but that is not our preferred outlook.
R3: 1.7046
R2: 1.7012
R1: 1.6959
Pivot: 1.6930
S1: 1.6881
S2: 1.6853
S3: 1.6837
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6977 with stop placed at 1.6845.
Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for February 14, 2018
2018-02-14
Technical outlook:
The EUR/USD pair might have formed a bottom and terminated into wave 4 of one lesser degree as shown here. The pair is seen to be trading around 1.2370/80 levels for now and looking to carve an impulse. A push through 1.2430/40 levels would confirm that the pair has carved an impulse from 1.2205 levels and that it should be looking to push higher to terminate in wave (5) of a larger degree. It should be noted that the pair has found support from convergence points of fibonacci 0.382 support and also the Elliott Channel Support as depicted here. Initial price support is seen at 1.2160 levels while interim resistance is at 1.2537 levels respectively. A push through 1.2537 would be close to completing wave (5) of a higher degree and initiate a major bearish reversal.
Trading plan:
Please look to take short term profit on long positions taken earlier.
US Dollar Index:
Technical outlook:
The US Dollar Index seems to have terminated wave 4 around 90.50 levels earlier and should be on its way lower towards wave (5) of a higher degree. The US Dollar Index is seen to be trading around 89.50 levels at this point in time and should be looking to continue dropping lower below 88.40 levels at least to complete the 5th of 5th wave drop. Also note that the index has bounced off the Elliott Channel resistance and just shy of fibonacci 0.382 resistance of wave 3. Initial price resistance resumes from 91.00 levels while interim price support is seen at 88.40 levels respectively. Keeping the bigger picture in mind, looking for a drop and then going long should prove extremely beneficial trading strategy.
Trading plan:
Please book short term profits on the short positions taken earlier.
Fundamental outlook:
Watch out for the German and Italian GDP data to be out today in the next 2-3 hours.
Good luck!
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for February 14, 2018
2018-02-14
USD/CAD has been struggling at the edge of the 1.26 resistance area from where the price is expected to proceed lower in the coming days. USD was quite impulsive with the bullish gains after the release of the positive Employment Change report but could not sustain the impulsive bullish pressure to break above the 1.26 area. Ahead of the probable rate hike in March, USD is expected to be quite weaker for a certain period of time when CAD has good chance to recover its grounds. Today, USD CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%, Core CPI report is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Core Retails Sales report is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.4%, Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%, and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to increase to 2.8M from the previous figure of 1.9M. The economic reports are forecasted to have mixed results which might lead to a further losing of grounds against CAD in the coming days. On the other hand, CAD has been struggling with the economic reports recently having worse Employment Change report. This week on Friday, CAD Foreign Security Purchases report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 19.18B from the previous figure of 19.56B, and Manufacturing Sales is expected to have significant decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 3.4%. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to continue its gains further against CAD, but after a certain retracement or pullback which is expected to pull the price downward before an impulsive bullish momentum hits the price to create more highs in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure inside the volatile corrective structure bouncing off the 1.26 price area. Rejections off the 1.26 area has been quite strong and containing the price below the area that indicates a certain bearish pressure in the market. As the price remains below 1.26 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further with target towards 1.2450 in the coming days.
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