2018-07-09
EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish gains. As a result, the price is holding above 1.1750 area with a daily close today. As the US posted nonfarm payrolls with a decrease in non-farm employment and also higher unemployment rate, this shattered the recent bearish expectation of the market.
On Friday, US Average Hourly Earnings report was published with a decrease to 0.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, non-farm employment change was published with better-than-expected growth to 213k which was expected to be at 195k but the indicator decreased from the previous figure of 244k, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.0%, confouding the forecast for the flat reading of 3.8%. This week, the economic calendar does not contain macroeconomic reports or events in the US. Thus, no fundamentals could inject gains on the USD side, so the greenback is expected to remain weak further.
On the EUR side, today ECB President Draghi is going to speak about the the key interest rate and further agenda for monetary policy. His speech is expected to be neutral, making no immediate impact. Amid USD weakness, EUR is likely to gain ground. Moreover, today the eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to show a slight decrease to 9.0 from the previous figure of 9.3.
As for the current scenario, EUR is expected to advance further against USD this week. On the other hand, USD is going to struggle further until the US comes up with any upbeat macroeconomic report to counter the impulsive EUR sentiment in the market.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently correcting itself above 1.1700-50 area which is currently expected to retest with certain bearish pressure before showing impulsive bullish momentum in the process with a target towards 1.1900 area. A daily close above 1.1700-50 area is needed to continue the bullish bias being formed currently.
NEAR TERM SUPPORT: 1.1700-50
NEAR TERM RESISTANCE: 1.1900
BIAS: BULLISH
CURRENT FORMATION: CORRECTIVE
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 9, 2018
2018-07-09
Daily Outlook
In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.
The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established. However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.
Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.
In June 2018, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered significant bearish rejection which led to bearish decline towards 1.1500.
The price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent bullish demand where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.
Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside a consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1800 until breakout occurs in either direction.
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 9, 2018
2018-07-09
The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.
Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.
The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why, bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.
As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.
Quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where temporary bearish breakdown occurred. This allowed further bearish movement towards 0.6680 where evident signs of bullish rejection were manifested.
Currently, the price zone 0.6770-0.6800 stands as a prominent demand zone to be watched for bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry.
GBP/USD analysis for July 09, 2018
2018-07-09
Recently, GBP/USD has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3362. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a broken resistance at the price of 1.3312, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3392 and at the price of 1.3445.
Resistance levels: R1: 1.3358R2: 1.3374 R3: 1.3385
Support levels: S1: 1.3331S2: 1.3320S3: 1.3304
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
USD/JPY analysis for July 09, 2018
2018-07-09
Recently, USD/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 110.45. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a potential end of the upward correction (abc flat), which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the support trendline to confirm further downward continuation. The downward target is set at the price of 109.40.
Resistance levels:
R1: 110.48R2: 110.50R3: 110.55
Support levels: S1: 110.40S2: 110.37S3: 110.35
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 09, 2018
2018-07-09
Overview:The AUD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7474 towards 0.7348. But, the price rebounded from the bottom of 0.7348 to trade around the spot of 0.7474 again. The resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7474, 0.7513 and 0.7554. Moreover, the price area of 0.7474/0.7513 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7474 and 0.7257. If the AUD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7474, the market will decline further to 0.7302 as the first target. This would suggest the bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7257 so as to test the daily support 3. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7554, then this scenario may become invalidated.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 09, 2018
2018-07-09
Overview:The pivot point : 0.9857.
The price is still trading above the pivot point is seen at the price of 0.9857. The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0053.
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