2018-07-12
USD/CAD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently after breaking above the 1.3120 area with a daily close. Despite the recent rate hike by the Bank of Canada, CAD failed to gained momentum over USD that might lead to further bullish gains.
Yesterday, the Bank of Canada's policy statement and overnight rate report was published. The regulator increased the key policy rate to 1.50% from the 1.25% as expected. After certain volatility during the event, CAD lost momentum against USD leading to a bullish daily close above 1.3120 area. Citing BoC officials at the press conference, the central bank has been quite positive about economic growth. On the back of growing tensions due to the trade war between the US and Canada, export sales are being affected that led to a shift in trading sentiment despite the rate hike.
On the USD side, the economic reports published recently were quite positive and helped USD to sustain the bullish momentum in the process. However, the trade war might also undermine USD in the coming days. Today, US CPI and Core CPI reports are going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, Unemployment Claims are expected to decrease to 226k from the previous figure of 231k, and Natural Gas Storage is expected to decrease to 55B from the previous figure of 78B.
As for the current scenario, economic forecasts are quite mixed for the US reports, so such expecftations are going to inject certain volatility in trading. Though the Bank of Canada has been quite optimistic about economic prospects on the grounds of the recent economic reports, analysts expect some correction of USD/CAD. To sum up, USD is expected to gain certain momentum over CAD in the process.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains yesterday that led to a daily close above 1.3120 area but today CAD is struggling for gains. As the price broke above the 1.3120 along with dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line the price is expected to head higher with a target towards 1.34 resistance area in the future. As the price remains above 1.3050 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
NEAR TERM SUPPORT: 1.3050
NEAR TERM RESISTANCE: 1.3400
BIAS: BULLISH
CURRENT MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE AND VOLATILE
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 12, 2018
2018-07-12
Daily Outlook
In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.
Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.
This was followed by bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.
On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.
Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside a consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1800 until breakout occurs in either direction.
Early weak signs of bearish rejection around 1.1800 were already manifested on the chart. That's why, further bearish movement towards was anticipated towards 1.1670 initially.
Please note that any bullish breakout above 1.1750 will probably enhance further bullish advancement initially towards 1.1850 where price action should be watched.
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 12, 2018
2018-07-12
The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.
Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.
The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why, bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.
As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.
Quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred. This allowed temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.
On July 7, significant bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again. This enhances the bullish side of the market.
Trade Recommendations:
Currently, the price zone 0.6750-0.6800 constitutes a prominent demand zone to be watched for BUY entries with potential bullish targets around 0.6900-0.6980.
Please be cautious if any breakdown below 0.6680 occurs as this invalidates the previous bullish scenario.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 12, 2018
2018-07-12
Overview:The USD/CHF pair is still trading above the pivot point of the price 0.9857. The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0050.
Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for July 12, 2018
2018-07-12
AUD/USD has been quite volatile with the bearish trend it had started till it bounced off 0.8150 area with a daily close. Despite recent struggles on the USD side, AUD failed to gain momentum against USD.
Recently, after the worse-than-expected NFP report, USD failed to sustain the momentum it had over AUD. However, despite the positive economic reports from Australia, AUD lost ground again leading to bearish pressure in the pair. Recently, Westpac Consumer Sentiment report was published with a significant increase to 3.9% from the previous value of 0.3% and Home Loans increasing to 1.1% from the previous negative value of -0.9%. Today, AUD MI Inflation Expectation report was published with a slight decrease to 3.9% from the previous value of 4.2% which is currently helping AUD to gain certain momentum in the process.
On the other hand, today US CPI and Core CPI reports are going to be published and the indices are expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, Unemployment Claims are expected to decrease to 226k from the previous figure of 231k, and Natural Gas Storage is expected to decrease to 55B from the previous figure of 78B.
At present, AUD has been quite firm with the recent economic reports but failed to gain momentum because pending US economic reports are also well forecasted. So, better than expected readings may lead to further gains on the USD side in the coming days. The likelihood of another rate hike in the US is bullish for USD. Nevertheless, AUD may struggle to sustain its gains.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently showing certain bullish pressure at the edge of 0.7350 area from where it is expected to push lower towards 0.7050 area in the coming days. The trend is still bearish but volatile which might lead to certain correction along the way down towards 0.70 area. As the price remains below 0.75 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 0.7250, 0.7050
RESISTANCE: 0.7500-50
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 12, 2018
2018-07-12
Overview:The pivot point is seen at the point of 1.3190 on the H1 chart. Right now, the price is still trade around the point of 1.3190. The USD/CAD pair probably continues to move downwards from the level of 1.3190, which represents the double top on the H1 chart. The pair dropped from the level of 1.3190 to the bottom around 1.3130. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3227 followed by 1.3190, while daily support is seen at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3093. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still trapping between the levels of 1.3227 and 1.3093. Thus, we expect a range of 137 pips in coming hours. The first resistance stands at 1.3227, for that if the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3227, the market will decline further to 1.3130. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.3093 in order to test the second support (1.3093). On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.3224 (50% Fibonacci retracement levels), then this scenario may become invalidated.
Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 12, 2018
2018-07-12
Overview:The major resistance is seen at the level of 0.7474. The AUD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7474 towards 0.7348. But, the price rebounded from the bottom of 0.7348 to trade around the spot of 0.7474 again. The resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7474, 0.7513 and 0.7554. Moreover, the price area of 0.7474/0.7513 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7474 and 0.7257. If the AUD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7474, the market will decline further to 0.7302 as the first target. This would suggest the bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7257 so as to test the daily support 3. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7554, then this scenario may become invalidated.
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 12, 2018
2018-07-12
Overview:The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1752. This week, the pair has dropped from the level of 1.1752 to the bottom around 1.1678. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.1694, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.1752, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.1694, the market will decline further to 1.1623 in order to test the weekly support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1752 with the first target at 1.1663 and further to 1.1566. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 1.1810 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels).
GBP/USD analysis for July 12, 2018
2018-07-12
Recently, EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1665. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a potential bearish flag pattern in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities if you see a valid breakout of the flag pattern. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1600 and at the price of 1.1530.
Resistance levels: R1: 1.3260 R2: 1.3315 R3: 1.3350
Support levels: S1: 1.3177 S2: 1.3145 S3: 1.3090
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
USD/CHF analysis for July 12, 2018
2018-07-12
Recently, USD/CHF has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 0.9978. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a breakout of the bullish flag, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.0000 and at the price of 1.0050.
Resistance levels:
R1: 0.9980
R2: 1.0004
R3: 1.0040
Support levels:
S1: 0.9920
S2: 0.9885
S3: 0.9860
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
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