2018-08-13
The decline in wave c of ii has exceeded the expected target of 126.01 and it looks like more downside pressure will be needed after a correction towards 127.30. We do not expect this final decline to move much below 125.20 and it must stay above the start of wave i at 124.59. If this low is broken that will invalidate our bullish count and a re-count will then be needed.
Short-term a break above 126.23 will confirm that wave iii/ of c has completed and a corrective rally to 127.30 is developing in wave iv/ of c before the final dip to just below 125.20 to complete wave v/ of c and the expanded flat correction in wave ii.
R3: 127.30
R2: 126.81
R1: 126.23
Pivot: 125.75
S1: 125.22
S2: 124.97
S3: 124.59
Trading recommendation:
We bought EUR at 126.26 and we will start by placing our stop at 124.50.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 13, 2018
2018-08-13
It's a bit disappointing that the correction from 1.7487 has been as deep as it has. That said, only a break below support at 1.7117 will invalidate our bullish count.
Short-term, we do expect a little more downside pressure towards 1.7230 from where we expect the next bullish rally to take place to above 1.7487 on the way higher to 1.7924 and 1.8369 as the next important upside target.
Our long-term target remains seen at 1.9848.
R3: 1.7487
R2: 1.7417
R1: 1.7355
Pivot: 1.7322
S1: 1.7267
S2: 1.7230
S3: 1.7187
Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.7275 was hit for a 49 pips profit. We will look to re-buy EUR at 1.7245 or upon a break above 1.7405.
Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Aug 13, 2018
2018-08-13
In Asia, Japan today will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data such as Mortgage Delinquencies. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 110.91.
Resistance. 2: 110.69.
Resistance. 1: 110.47.
Support. 1: 110.21.
Support. 2: 109.99.
Support. 3: 109.27.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 13, 2018
2018-08-13
When the European market opens, there will be no Economic Data released, but the US will release the Economic Data such as Mortgage Delinquencies, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1451.
Strong Resistance:1.1444.
Original Resistance: 1.1433.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1422.
Target Inner Area: 1.1395.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1368.
Original Support: 1.1357.
Strong Support: 1.1346.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1339.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
USD/CAD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For Reversal!
2018-08-13
USD/CAD is approaching its resistance at 1.3162 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.3053 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected.
USD/CAD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.
Sell below 1.3162. Stop loss at 1.3219. Take profit at 1.3053.
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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for August 13, 2018
2018-08-13
EUR/USD has recently broken below the important price area of 1.15 with a strong daily close which does indicate further bearish momentum in the pair for the coming days. While EURO struggling with the recent economic, political, trade war and Brexit tensions, USD has been meeting expectations which lead to certain impulsive gains in the process.
Though today EURO do not have any impactful economic reports to be published this week EURO Flash GDP report is going to be published on Tuesday which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% and on Friday EURO Final CPI is going to be published which is also expected to be unchanged at 2.1%. ECB being silent for the time being about the economy does inject more weakness for the currency in the market against other majors as well.
On the other hand, having no economic report or event today to impact the market on the USD as well, this week on Wednesday, Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% and Core Retail Sales report is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%. Moreover, on Thursday, USD Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 1.31M from the previous figure of 1.29M in the process.
As of the current scenario, EUR is expected to struggle further to sustain its gain against USD in the process whereas USD is expected to dominate further in the coming days. Despite the upcoming economic reports results, the market sentiment is currently biased towards USD in comparison to the EURO at this moment.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price started the week with a gap lower than the previous close, which is currently expected to retrace towards 1.1450-1.1500 area before pushing lower again with the target towards 1.1300 to 1.1100 area with a daily close. As the price remains below 1.15 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
SUPPORT: 1.1300, 1.1100
RESISTANCE: 1.1450-1.1500
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for August 13, 2018
2018-08-13
USD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bearish momentum recently which lead the price to open below 110.50 today. As the break below 110.50 was with a gap, the breakout cannot be taken as optimum for further bearish pressure in the pair.
This week JPY Trade Balance report is going to be published on Thursday, which is expected to decrease to 0.02T from the previous figure of 0.07T. The pessimist forecast of the JPY's only impactful news this week may lead to certain weakness on the JPY side this week against USD in the process.
On the other hand, having no economic report or event today to impact the market on the USD as well, this week on Wednesday, Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% and Core Retail Sales report is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%. Moreover, on Thursday, USD Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 1.31M from the previous figure of 1.29M in the process.
As of the current scenario, though JPY has been leading with certain gains recently, the bearish momentum is expected to fade away if USD performs better than expected in the upcoming economic reports to be published this week which is more likely to take place.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 110.50 and also at the edge of Kumo Cloud support whereas a daily close above 110.50 is expected to lead the price towards 112.00 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 108.50-109.20 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
SUPPORT: 108.50-109.20
RESISTANCE: 112.00
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 13, 2018
2018-08-13
Overview:The EUR/USD pair continues moving in a bearish trend from the resistance level of 1.1553 to 1.1368.
Currently, the price is in a bearish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market.
The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 1.1300 and 1.1283. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.1425 levels, which coincides with the weekly pivot.
Moreover, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1425. So it will be good to sell at 1.1425 with the first target of 1.1300. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1283. The strong weekly support is seen at 1.1283.
However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.1425, then this scenario may be invalidated.
Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 13, 2018
2018-08-13
Overview:The GBP/USD pair hit the weekly support 1 last week. So, it dropped down in order to bottom at the point of 1.2780. Today, the pair is trading below its pivot point (1.2780). It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains below the level of 1.2780. Hence, the minor resistance was already set at the level of 1.2780. Moreover, the weekly resistance is also coinciding around the major support around the area of 1.2837. Additionally, the RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market as well as the current price is also below the moving average 100. Therefore, it will be advantageous to sell below the current level of 1.2780 with the first target at 1.2700. From this point, if the pair closes below the dily support of 1.2700 on the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair may resume its movement to 1.2670 in order to retest the weekly support 2. However, stop loss should always be taken into account, accordingly, it will be beneficial to set the stop loss below the last bullish wave at 1.2837.
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