2018-08-03
EUR/JPY disappointingly moved back below support at 129.68, which has forced us to review the short-term count for the rally from the 124.59 low. This review leaves us with two possible scenarios.
1: We have seen wave i rally from 124.59 to 130.27 and wave ii was a simple deep correction to 126.61, that corrected 61.8% of wave i. The rally that followed wave ii from 126.61 to 131.99 is counted as wave i/ of one lesser degree and the ongoing decline is counted as wave ii/, which now is re-testing the 50 - 61.8% corrective target-area between 128.66 - 129.30. This count is slightly preferred, but only just.
2: The second count shows that wave i rallied from 124.59 to 130.27 and everything since the 130.27 is part of an expanded flat wave ii. If this count is correct, the support at 128.66 will be broken for a dip to 126.01 to complete wave ii and set the stage for a strong extended rally in wave iii.
We slightly prefer the first scenario, but it needs to prove itself.
R3: 131.15
R2: 130.53
R1: 130.32
Pivot: 129.62
S1: 129.30
S2: 129.09
S3: 128.66
Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 129.50 was hit for a 78 pips loss. We will buy EUR again at 128.95 and place our stop at 128.50.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 3, 2018
2018-08-03
EUR/NZD is finally showing some strength. A break above resistance at 1.7205 seems imminent and a clear break above this resistance confirms that red wave iii higher to 1.7510 is in motion. Longer term much higher levels remain expected.
Short-term support now is seen at 1.7180 and again at 1.7130 but they will likely not come into play.
R3: 1.7305
R2: 1.7268
R1: 1.7207
Pivot: 1.7180
S1: 1.7130
S2: 1.7116
S3: 1.7106
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above resistance at 1.7205 and use the same stop at 1.7110.
GBP/JPY Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!
2018-08-03
GBP/JPY is approaching its support at 144.72 (100%, 100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement x2, horizontal overlap support) where it is expected to bounce up to its resistance at 146.95 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 4.8% where a corresponding bounce is expected.
GBP/JPY is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.
Buy above 144.72. Stop loss 143.72. Take profit at 146.95.
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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Aug 03, 2018
2018-08-03
In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a medium to high volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 112.30.
Resistance. 2: 112.08.
Resistance. 1: 111.86.
Support. 1: 111.58.
Support. 2: 111.36.
Support. 3: 111.15.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Aug 03, 2018
2018-08-03
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Retail Sales m/m, Italian Retail Sales m/m, Italian Industrial Production m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Spanish Services PMI, and French Gov Budget Balance. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium to high volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1642.
Strong Resistance:1.1635.
Original Resistance: 1.1624.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1613.
Target Inner Area: 1.1586.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1559.
Original Support: 1.1548.
Strong Support: 1.1537.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1530.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 03, 2018
2018-08-03
As expected, the USD/CAD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.3048. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3048 to the bottom around 1.2974. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3094 followed by 1.3132, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.2974. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3048 and 1.2974; for that, we expect a range of 74 pips (1.3048 - 1.2974). If the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the minor resistance level of 1.3048, the market will decline further to 1.3048. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.2974 with a view to testing the daily major support. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.3094, then this scenario may become invalidated.
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