2018-09-13
We still would prefer a second corrective dip closer to 128.57 before the next impulsive rally through short-term important resistance at 129.98 that will confirm red wave (3) being well underway towards 136.50 and higher.
It's possible that EUR/JPY breaks directly above resistance at 129.98 and skips the second dip. We think it comes down to the Market having enough patience or not.
R3: 130.49
R2: 129.98
R1: 129.75
Pivot: 129.23
S1: 129.09
S2: 128.74
S3: 128.57
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 129.10 with our stop placed at 127.75. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 128.57 or upon a break above 129.98 and use the same stop at 127.75.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 13, 2018
2018-09-13
The break below minor support at 1.7716 indicates that red wave iii completed at 1.7825 and red wave iv towards 1.7605 is developing. Once this correction is complete, renewed upside pressure towards 1.8030 and possibly even closer to 1.8369 is expected.
Short-term, we expect minor resistance at 1.7791 will cap the upside for the decline closer to 1.7605.
R3: 1.7954
R2: 1.7900
R1: 1.7825
Pivot: 1.7791
S1: 1.7736
S2: 1.7700
S3: 1.7650
Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.7730 was hit for a nice 400 pips profit. We will wait for a dip to 1.7615 before buying EUR.
Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for September 13, 2018
2018-09-13
NZD/USD has managed to push higher, having bounced off the 0.6500 support area with a daily close. So the pair is going to trade higher in the coming days. Despite soft economic reports from new Zealand this week, yesterday NZD managed to counter the preceding bearish trend in the pair.
Today New Zealand FPI report was published with a decrease to -0.5% from the previous value of 0.7% which triggered certain pullbacks in the process. Tomorrow Business NZ Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which previously was at 51.2 and a positive actual result of the economic report is expected to inject further bullish momentum in the process. Besides, RBNZ is not considering rate hikes as they want to stabilize their economy for better in the short and medium term.
On the other hand, amid a series of worse-than-expetced economic reports published recently, USD is quite weak against NZD in the process. Today US CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.2% and Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%. Moreover, Unemployment Claims report is expected to increase to 210k from the previous figure of 203k, Natural Gas Storage is expected to increase to 65B from the previous figure of 63B, and FOMC Members Quarles and Bostic are going to speak today regarding the upcoming interest rate decision and future monetary policies.
Meanwhile, USD has been struggling to gain momentum in the market due to recent worse economic reports whereas any positive figure in pending economic reports is expected to inject some pressure against NZD in the process. Otherwise, NZD may remain having an upper hand over USD.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has pushed higher from a strong support area of 0.6500 area having Bullish Divergence in place which does indicate certain bullish momentum in the pair with target towards 0.6720 resistance area in the coming days before pushing lower with the trend again. As the price remains below 0.6720 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 0.6500
RESISTANCE: 0.6720, 0.6850
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 13, 2018
2018-09-13
Overview:
As expected, the USD/CAD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.2982 and 1.3088. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3088 to 1.2982. The level of 1.3088 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3041 and 1.3088. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3041 and 1.3088; because the price is in a bearish channel now.
Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3088 and 1.3041. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.3041. Furthermore, if the USD/CAD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2989, the market will decline further to 1.2934 (daily support 2). Moreover, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2887 to test it again. The level of 1.2887 will form a double bottom. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.3088, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.3100;
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 13, 2018
2018-09-13
As expected, the USD/CAD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.2982 and 1.3088. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3088 to 1.2982. The level of 1.3088 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3041 and 1.3088. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3041 and 1.3088; because the price is in a bearish channel now.
Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3088 and 1.3041. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.3041. Furthermore, if the USD/CAD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2989, the market will decline further to 1.2934 (daily support 2). Moreover, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2887 to test it again. The level of 1.2887 will form a double bottom. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.3088, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.3100;
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 13, 2018
2018-09-13
Overview:
The market is still trading above the pivot point (0.9689). It continued to move downwards from the level of 0.9689 to the bottom around 0.9651. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9728 followed by 0.9776, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9651. The USD/CHF pair broke support which turned to strong resistance at 0.9776. Right now, the pair is trading below this level. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the support (0.9698) which is expected to act as major support today. This would suggest a bearish market because the moving average (100) is still in a negative area and does not show any signs of a trend reversal at the moment. Amid the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9689 and 0.9600, so we expect a range of 89 pips in coming hours. Therefore, the major resistance can be found at 0.9728 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 0.9651. If the trend breaks the minor support at 0.9651, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 0.9600 in order to test the daily support 2. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the spot of 0.9728.
The market is still trading above the pivot point (0.9689). It continued to move downwards from the level of 0.9689 to the bottom around 0.9651. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9728 followed by 0.9776, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9651. The USD/CHF pair broke support which turned to strong resistance at 0.9776. Right now, the pair is trading below this level. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the support (0.9698) which is expected to act as major support today. This would suggest a bearish market because the moving average (100) is still in a negative area and does not show any signs of a trend reversal at the moment. Amid the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9689 and 0.9600, so we expect a range of 89 pips in coming hours. Therefore, the major resistance can be found at 0.9728 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 0.9651. If the trend breaks the minor support at 0.9651, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 0.9600 in order to test the daily support 2. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the spot of 0.9728.
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