2018-12-13
With the break above minor resistance at 128.67 EUR/JPY is challenging resistance at 129.05, which it ideally will respect to complete wave e of B and set the stage for a decline towards the ideally long-term target at 123.66.
Short-term, we need a break below 128.68 and more importantly a break below support at 128.56 to confirm that wave B has completed and wave C lower is developing.
At no point can a break above resistance at 129.29 be accepted under this count. A break above 129.29 will invalidate the B-wave triangle count and call for a rally towards 130.15 and above.
R3: 129.29
R2: 129.05
R1: 128.90
Pivot: 128.81
S1: 128.68
S2: 128.50
S3: 128.15
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 128.05 and will move our stop+revers to 129.35.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 13, 2018
2018-12-13
EUR/NZD rallied nicely from support near 1.6425 and should be headed closer to the strong resistance-area between 1.6694 - 1.6760.
Short-term minor resistance near 1.6536 will be able to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.6614 that calls for the rally into the 1.6694 - 1.6760 area to complete wave iv and set the stage for the next decline in wave v towards 1.6169.
R3: 1.6694
R2: 1.6665
R1. 1.6614
Pivot: 1.6558
S1: 1.6536
S2: 1.6513
S3: 1.6480
Trading recommendation:
We bought EUR at 1.6480 and will raise our stop to Break-even. We will take profit at 1.6675.
Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for December 13, 2018
2018-12-13
AUD/USD managed to climb higher bouncing off the 0.7200 area with a daily close after pushing lower impulsively off the 0.7300 area earlier. Despite mixed economic reports from Australia, AUD managed to gain momentum over USD. Recently, USD growth is capped by softer rhetoric of Federal Reserve and downbeat US non-farm payrolls for November.
This week Australia Home Loans report was published with an increase to 2.2% from the previous negative value of -1.0% which was expected to be at -0.5%, HPI decreased to decreased to -1.5% as expected from the previous value of -0.7%, NAB Business Confidence decreased to 3 from the previous figure of 5, and Westpac Consumer Sentiment also decreased to 0.1% from the previous value of 2.8%. Today MI Inflation Expectation report was published with an increase to 4.0% from the previous value of 3.6% and RBA Bulletin was quite positive with the Merchant payment surcharges. Today's positive economic reports provided the required momentum to AUD to sustain its gains over USD.
On the other hand, traders prefer to sell USD which has been hurt by the recent economic reports. Recently US CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.3% which made USD lose ground. Today US Import Prices report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -1.0% from the previous value of -0.5% and Unemployment Claims is expected to decrease to 226k from the previous value of 231k. US Retail Sales report is due tomorrow which is also expected to show a decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.7%.
To sum it up, USD could not assert strength due to the latest economic reports and weak expectations for the upcoming economic reports. Though AUD has managed to gain certain momentum over USD, the aussie is expected to extend gains until the US comes with solid economic results or events to trigger USD counter-move in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 0.7200 area with a daily close while being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance. The price is still under certain bearish bias and expected to continue pushing lower as the price breaks below 0.7200 area with a daily close in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.7300 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue with a target towards 0.7050 support area in the future.
SUPPORT: 0.7050, 0.7200
RESISTANCE: 0.7300, 0.7400
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis for EUR/USD for December 13, 2018
2018-12-13
EUR/USD remains trapped inside the triangle pattern below critical resistance of 1.14-1.1420 and above the 1.13 support. So far break outs to the upside have failed to materialize and resulted in pull backs towards 1.13. Nevertheless each time we saw price pull back towards 1.13 support was respected.
Red line -major resistanceGreen line - major support
Black dots -resistance
Red dots -trend change level
EUR/USD has been in a down trend since February. For the last month price has shown stabilization and has stopped the decline. There are bullish divergence signs in the RSI on the Daily time frame. Moreover EUR/USD has reached and bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 1.0340 to 1.2555. This an important Fibonacci area of support and a good candidate for a trend reversal.
Technical analysis for Gold for December 13, 2018
2018-12-13
Gold price is stabilizing above $1,240. This is good news for bulls. Gold is making higher highs and higher lows so far supporting the bullish scenario for a move higher towards $1,250-60 area.
Green line - trend line support
Green rectangles- support levels
Red rectangles - resistance levels
Gold price is now above the recent high at $1,243.50 made in October. Price is moving higher and is expected to reach $1,255-60 area over the coming weeks. Support is found at $1,230 area. The medium-term bullish trend that started back at the August lows will be canceled if price breaks below all green support areas and the green trend line currently at $1,210.
Green rectangles- support levels
Red rectangles - resistance levels
Gold price is now above the recent high at $1,243.50 made in October. Price is moving higher and is expected to reach $1,255-60 area over the coming weeks. Support is found at $1,230 area. The medium-term bullish trend that started back at the August lows will be canceled if price breaks below all green support areas and the green trend line currently at $1,210.
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