2018-12-28
USD/CHF has been quite volatile and indecisive recently after the impulsive bearish pressure leading the price towards 0.9700 area with a daily close. USD having worse economic reports recently lead CHF to gain momentum in the volatile indecisive price action despite the recent rate hike decision and hawkish statement from the Fed.
After the Christmas holiday, USD has been quite weak with its approach leading to certain gains on the CHF side due to underperforming economic reports. Recently, the US CB Consumer Confidence report was published with a decrease to 128.1 from the previous figure of 136.4 which was expected to be at 133.7. Worse-than-expected economic reports added to more weakness for the currency. Today the US Pending Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.9% from the previous value of -2.6% and the Natural Gas Storage is expected to increase to -50B from the previous figure of -141B.
On the other hand, CHF has been quite positive with the economic reports comparatively this week. Recently the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations report was published with a decrease to -22.2 from the previous figure of -42.3. Today, the KOF Economic indicator is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 98.7 from the previous figure of 99.1.
As of the current scenario, USD has been struggling with the recently published economic reports while CHF managed to sustain the positivity along with the gains in the process. Ahead of NFP next week, if USD underperforms in the process, further gains on the CHF side may be observed.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite volatile and indecisive recently between the range of 0.9850-0.9950. The price is currently pushing lower while being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is expected to lead the price much lower towards 0.9550 support area in the future. A daily close below 0.9850 is expected to ensure further impulsive bearish momentum in the coming days.
SUPPORT: 0.9550, 0.9850
RESISTANCE: 0.9950, 1.0050
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Fundamental analysis of NZD/USD for December 28, 2018
2018-12-28
NZD/USD has been quite impressive with the recent non-volatile bearish gains recently. As a result, the price resided at the edge of 0.6700 area. As of the holidays, NZD had no economic reports to support its counter momentum against USD which is being supported by the market sentiment against NZD due to recent rate hike and optimistic view of the Fed.
This week NZD did not have any impactful economic reports or events to deviate the market sentiment towards it. As NZD has been underperforming with the earlier economic reports, market bias is currently against the currency.
On the USD side, recently the US CB Consumer Confidence report was published with a decrease to 128.1 from the previous figure of 136.4 which was expected to be at 133.7. The worse economic reports added to more weakness for the currency in the process. Today the US Pending Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.9% from the previous value of -2.6% and the Natural Gas Storage is expected to increase to -50B from the previous figure of -141B.
As of the current scenario, despite having worse economic reports and mixed expectations of the upcoming economic reports results, USD gained momentum quite consistently against NZD which indicates the severe weakness of NZD in the process. Ahead of the NFP report next week, any worse economic reports on USD and positive economic reports on NZD may lead to certain bullish pressure in the process resulting in retracement.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently being held by the support of 0.6700 area along with the dynamic support area of Kumo Cloud which is expected to lead the price higher towards 0.6950-0.70 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.6700 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 0.6500, 0.6700
RESISTANCE: 0.6950, 0.70
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 28, 2018
2018-12-28
The ongoing correction from 125.33 has spiked above the 38.2% corrective target at 126.85 to a high of 127.09. We expect this correction to be near its completion for a final dip towards at least 124.89 and, ideally, closer to the long-term downside target for the wave (E) at 123.66.
In the short term, a break below support at 126.23 and, more importantly, a break below support at 125.98 will confirm the wave v is lowering towards 124.89 and below.
R3: 127.52
R2: 127.27
R1: 127.09
Pivot: 126.65
S1: 126.23
S2: 125.98
S3: 125.75
Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 127.05 was hit for a 100-pip profit. We will sell a break below 126.23.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 28, 2018
2018-12-28
Wave iv is extending and has tested the 50% corrective target at 1.7105. The unexpected rally to the 50% corrective target has been followed by divergence on the RSI, indicating near-term exhaustion of the rally in the wave iv.
In the short term, a break below minor support at 1.7000 will be the first good indication that the wave iv has completed, while a break below support at 1.6950 will confirm that the wave iv is complete and the wave v lower to at least 1.1615 is developing.
R3: 1.7288
R2: 1.7247
R1: 1.7165
Pivot: 1.7105
S1: 1.7043
S2: 1.7000
S3: 1.6950
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 1.6975 and has placed our stop at 1.7185
EUR/USD challenges important resistance levels
2018-12-28
The EUR/USD pair has managed to hold above the 1.1350 support once again and bulls are now trying to break above the important medium-term resistance levels. EUR/USD is once again above 1.14-1.1430 and this time, an upward breakout rather than another rejection is more likely.
Yellow rectangles - trading range
Green line - RSI support trend line
Red line -major trend line resistance
EUR/USD is trying to break above the upper boundary of the trading range for the fourth time, while at the same time, it touches the red downward sloping trend line resistance for the fifth time. As we noted in the previous posts, the Daily bullish divergence signs by the RSI increase the chance of an upward breakout. Our first target is the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire decline. Key support at 1.1350 has been held, so there are more signs of strength than that of weakness.
Technical analysis for Gold for December 28, 2018
2018-12-28
Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The price is approaching our Fibonacci target of 61.8% of the entire decline, as we mentioned in previous posts. There no warning signs for a major top.
Green line - RSI support trend line
Red line -major trend line resistance
EUR/USD is trying to break above the upper boundary of the trading range for the fourth time, while at the same time, it touches the red downward sloping trend line resistance for the fifth time. As we noted in the previous posts, the Daily bullish divergence signs by the RSI increase the chance of an upward breakout. Our first target is the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire decline. Key support at 1.1350 has been held, so there are more signs of strength than that of weakness.
Technical analysis for Gold for December 28, 2018
2018-12-28
Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The price is approaching our Fibonacci target of 61.8% of the entire decline, as we mentioned in previous posts. There no warning signs for a major top.
Green line - major trend line support
Blue line - short-term support trend line
Gold line - RSI support trend line
Gold price is approaching our $1,287 target where we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This is an important resistance area and I expect to see a pause to this upward trend. The Daily RSI has just entered the overbought levels. There is no bearish divergence. Short-term support and possible pullback area is at $1,260. Resistance is at $1,287-90 and the next one is at $1,308. The trend remains bullish. A break below the blue trend line support would be a bearish sign and something that bulls would not like to see as this would put the bullish scenario and bullish medium-term trend in danger.
Blue line - short-term support trend line
Gold line - RSI support trend line
Gold price is approaching our $1,287 target where we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This is an important resistance area and I expect to see a pause to this upward trend. The Daily RSI has just entered the overbought levels. There is no bearish divergence. Short-term support and possible pullback area is at $1,260. Resistance is at $1,287-90 and the next one is at $1,308. The trend remains bullish. A break below the blue trend line support would be a bearish sign and something that bulls would not like to see as this would put the bullish scenario and bullish medium-term trend in danger.
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