Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- UK Retail Actvity Picks Up Strongly, Points to Economic Recovery
- Euro Volatility Reignited, Deeper Losses on the Horizon
- Euro Catapults Higher vs SEK After Dovish Riksbank
- EURUSD Price Breaks Down as US Dollar Rides Roughshod
- FTSE Breaking Trend-line, Pulling the Rug; Chart Setting Up for More Losses
- KOSPI Falls, South Korea GDP Contracts. Euro Stoxx 50 Uptrend at Risk
- Gold, Crude Oil Prices at the Mercy of Corporate Earnings Flow
- Watch Nasdaq Versus Dow On US Open, Dollar Earns Its Break
- Will BOJ Monetary Policy be Pressured by US-Japan Trade Talks?
- Gold Price Outlook Mired by Head-and-Shoulders Formation
| UK Retail Actvity Picks Up Strongly, Points to Economic Recovery Posted: 25 Apr 2019 03:57 AM PDT Hits: 13 UK economy news and analysis:
UK retail sales risingUK retail sales likely improved strongly in April, according to the latest data from the Confederation of British Industry, with the trade body's monthly sales balance jumping to +13 from -18 in March – a much stronger recovery than the rise to zero predicted by economists. The improvement means that retail sales in the UK grew for the first time since last November in the year to April. Orders placed on suppliers also grew and are expected to pick up further in the month ahead, with sales volumes set to see somewhat faster growth too. However, the CBI also reported that a late Easter may have had an impact. "It's encouraging to see retailers with more of a spring in their step than in recent months. The recent pick up in real wages is a welcome support to the sector, making the Pound in people's pockets stretch that bit further, said Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI chief economist. "However, this month's sales growth will have been distorted by the later timing of Easter, and falling sales in clothing and department stores underline how challenging underlying conditions remain," she added. The data had limited impact on the Pound, with GBPUSD sliding in European trading hours Thursday. GBPUSD Price Chart, Five-Minute Timeframe (April 25, 2019)
Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image) Resources to help you trade the forex markets:Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you: — Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex
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| Euro Volatility Reignited, Deeper Losses on the Horizon Posted: 25 Apr 2019 03:19 AM PDT Hits: 8 Currency Volatility EURUSD Talking Points
Top 10 most volatile currency pairs and how to trade them For a more in-depth analysis on FX, check out the Q2 FX Forecast King Dollar Breathes Life into FX VolatilityAs investors remain on the hunt for yield, the USD has been among the major beneficiaries with the greenback making a topside break out of its multi-month range to reach its highest level since May 2017. Consequently, this looks to have breathed life into FX volatility with the 1-month implied volatility among G7 currencies appearing to have bottomed out from its multi-year lows.
Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX Further Losses in Euro on the HorizonEURUSD: Following the topside breach in the USD index, the Euro made a decisive break below 1.1176 to post a fresh 22-month low. Data out of the Eurozone has continued to disappoint with last week's PMI's and this week's German IFO failing to show a much needed rebound in the Eurozone economy. Consequently, the outlook remains a bleak one and with EURUSD breaking out of its narrow range, investors are now seeking downside protection, suggesting further losses are in store for the Euro, raising the prospect that EURUSD could see a 1.10 handle. As a reminder, the latest COT report, highlighted that speculators remain very bearish on the Euro with net shorts totalling $13.8bln. Today's Option Expiries: 1.1140 (800mln), 1.1170-75 (850mln), 1.1200 (700mln).
Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX — Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
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| Euro Catapults Higher vs SEK After Dovish Riksbank Posted: 25 Apr 2019 02:43 AM PDT Hits: 11 EURSEK Analysis and Talking Points
DailyFX Q2 2019 FX Trading Forecasts BOTTOM LINE: No Inflation, No Rate Hike The Riksbank provided a much more dovish message than the markets had expected, which in turn saw EURSEK catapult higher and is track for its biggest intra-day gains since October 2016. The central bank had lowered its repo-rate path, having noted that the rate will remain at current levels for a longer period of time than assumed in February. The main focal point behind the decision had been due to the soft inflation prospects with the Riksbank highlighting that inflationary pressures have been weaker than expected and is now seen to be lower over the next few years. As such, the Riksbank's view that the repo rate is expected to be raised again towards the year-end or beginning of next year looks to be somewhat hopeful. Riksbank Forecasts
EURSEK Price Chart: 1-Minute Timeframe (Intra-day)
Weekly Technical Analysis on SEK and NOK – Follow Currency Analyst Dimitri Zabelin FX TRADING RESOURCES: — Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
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| EURUSD Price Breaks Down as US Dollar Rides Roughshod Posted: 25 Apr 2019 02:05 AM PDT Hits: 12 EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:
Q2 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities EURUSD finally broke down late yesterday and touched a fresh 22-month low as US dollar strength took out noted EURUSD support levels. The US dollar continues to attract flows with the yield differential between 2-year US Treasuries (2.32%) and German Bunds (-0.60%) supportive of the greenback. The break lower had been expected over the last few weeks with official data pointing to a sharp economic slowdown in Germany and the Euro-Zone. Euro Fundamental Outlook: EURUSD Crumbles on Euro-Zone Growth Fears The US dollar is at, or close to, highs last seen nearly two years. The strength of the USD – the cleanest shirt in the laundry basket – comes despite a growing realization that the next move in US interest rates is likely lower. Central banks around the globe have been adopting a more dovish stance over the last few months as economies weaken and inflation stays stubbornly below target. The US dollar chart is showing signs that the recent bull surge is overdone with the CCI indicator showing the greenback at extreme overbought levels in the short-term. The overall set-up however remains positive with a cluster of higher lows and higher highs seen since the start of the year. US Dollar Basket (DXY) Daily Price Chart (June 2018 – April 25, 2019)
EURUSD is currently trading around 1.1140, the lowest level seen since late-June 2017. The next support zone is between 1.1020 and 1.1070 from mid-May 2017. The pair looks oversold in the short-term, using the CCI indicator. Coming up, two important US releases with durable goods orders later today and the first look at US Q1 GDP on Friday. Both releases have the ability to steer the US dollar in the short-term. EURUSD Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – April 25, 2019)
Retail traders are 70.0% net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish contrarian bias. We run several Trader Sentiment Webinars every week explaining how to use IG client sentiment data and positioning when looking at a trade set-up. Access the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to get all the times and links for a wide range of webinars. Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide. What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.
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| FTSE Breaking Trend-line, Pulling the Rug; Chart Setting Up for More Losses Posted: 25 Apr 2019 01:26 AM PDT Hits: 18 FTSE Technical Highlights:
For the recently released Q2 FTSE & GBP Forecasts, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page. FTSE broke above trend resistance, but now failingOn Tuesday, the FTSE broke out above the trend-line extending lower from the May 2018 high, but yesterday it quickly found opposition. Early in today's session we are seeing sellers step up and push price below the trend-line, which if holds through the course of the day is likely to lead to more losses in the days ahead. Losses may be contained, though, with support not far below. There is a trend-line from late January and then December running up through the area around the last swing-high seen last month. We could see some confluence there. Price weakness looks likely to last down to the 7350/25-area before another possible push higher develops. In the event a reversal develops and hold of the trend-line on a daily closing basis, amounting to basically a head-fake lower, then it will keep the FTSE intact for now and today's low can be used as a short-term guide from which to maintain a bias. Stay above then neutral to higher, below then more weakness expected. How today closes out is the key, again, as currently we are seeing a failure but with most of the session ahead of us that could easily change. As we discuss regularly in the Thursday Becoming a Better Trader webinar, candlesticks, or any bar type for that matter, can't be counted as one type or another until you get the final piece of information, which is the close. FTSE Daily Chart (failing below t-line, but waiting on closing print)
Check out this guide for 4 ideas on how to Build Confidence in Trading. You can join me every Wednesday at 9 GMT for live analysis on equity indices and commodities, and for the remaining roster of live events, check out the webinar calendar. Tools for Forex & CFD TradersWhether you are a beginning or experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. —Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
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| KOSPI Falls, South Korea GDP Contracts. Euro Stoxx 50 Uptrend at Risk Posted: 24 Apr 2019 10:15 PM PDT Hits: 13 Asia Pacific Markets Wrap Talking Points
Find out what retail traders' equities buy and sell decisions say about the coming price trend! Equities traded mixed during the Asia Pacific trading session following a lackluster performance on Wall Street. There, investors digested mixed earnings reports with foreign exchange markets showing signs of risk aversion. The Nikkei 225 traded more than 0.5% higher heading into the close, guided higher by communication service shares. Meanwhile, the ASX 200 was up about 1% with financials leading higher. This sector of the index makes up for about a third of its weighting. Stocks in China and South Korea fared worse on the other hand. The Shanghai Composite was down about 0.7% while the KOSPI dropped over 0.3%. South Korean GDP unexpectedly contracted according to preliminary estimates for the first quarter, likely souring sentiment. Looking at currencies, the anti-risk Japanese Yen was narrowly outperforming against its major counterparts despite the Bank of Japan trimming growth and inflation estimates. Meanwhile, the pro-risk Australian and New Zealand Dollars traded relatively flat. S&P 500 futures are pointing higher which suggests that there may be an uptick in overall optimism over the remaining 24 hours. US earnings are still in full swing with Amazon a notable contender ahead. Do watch for US durable goods orders which may disappoint given disappointing trends in economic data performance since February. Euro Stoxx 50 Technical AnalysisLooking at Euro Stoxx 50 futures to show after-hours trade, the index formed a doji candle at the recent peak. This is a warning sign of indecision below resistance at 3442. Meanwhile, the rising support line from late March is directly below it. Keep an eye out for a breakout in either direction which ideally needs confirmation. Euro Stoxx 50 Daily Chart
Chart Created in TradingView FX Trading Resources— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter
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| Gold, Crude Oil Prices at the Mercy of Corporate Earnings Flow Posted: 24 Apr 2019 09:39 PM PDT Hits: 21 GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices edged up as risk appetite cooled on global financial markets, weighing down bond yields and thereby bolstering the appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives. A move beyond the recent congestion range was not in the cards however. The US Dollar rose on the back of haven-seeking capital flows, capping gains for the anti-fiat yellow metal. Crude oil prices edged lower, with downside pressure from the broadly risk-off mood compounded by EIA inventory flow data. It showed that stockpiles added a hefty 5.5 million barrels last week, dwarfing expectations for meager 810.7k barrel rise. The outcome echoed API data published Tuesday that called for a larger inflow. COMMODITY PRICES FOCUSED ON CORPORATE EARNINGS DOCKETLooking ahead, the ongoing publication of first-quarter corporate earnings reports takes top billing. An eye-watering 62 constituent firms making up the bellwether S&P 500 index are set to release results. The tone has been somewhat downbeat. Preliminary results are sobering. Corporates are on pace for the weakest performance in at least a year, with negative earnings growth expected for the first time in two years. More of the same might amplify worries about the ongoing slowdown in global economic growth, inspiring renewed de-risking. That bodes ill for cycle-sensitive crude oil prices. As for gold it may find a bit of support as bond yields remain under pressure, but an offsetting rise in the Greenback is a likely headwind. In fact, the latter catalyst has proven to be a bit more potent than the former recently. See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter! GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices remain mired in digestion mode above supportin the 1260.80-63.76 area but the completion of a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) chart pattern argues for a major top in place. A break below the immediate downside barrier initially targets the 1235.11-38.00 zone but the H&S setup implies a measured objective at 1215.00. Alternatively, a move back above neckline support-turned-resistance at 1281.89 opens the door to test back above the $1300/oz figure.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices stalled after producing an admittedly awkward-looking Shooting Star candlestick below resistance in the 66.09-67.03 area. This coupled with negative RSI divergence hints a turn lower may be ahead. Trend line support is at 62.66, with a break below that confirmed on a daily closing basis initially exposing 60.39. Alternatively, a break above resistance sets the stage for a test of the $70/bbl figure.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter
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| Watch Nasdaq Versus Dow On US Open, Dollar Earns Its Break Posted: 24 Apr 2019 08:55 PM PDT Hits: 11 Volatility Talking Points:
Do you trade on fundamental themes or event risk? See what live events we will cover on DailyFX this week (Friday's US GDP) as well as our regular webinar series meant to help you hone your trading. Earnings Season Triggers Strong Speculative Emotions and Serious Fundamental QuestionsThe first quarter US earnings season hit full stride this past session with reports from key companies. The size of the corporations themselves makes the list important for investors and the closely related economic forecast. However, the implications for particular groupings of companies represents far greater insight into our future than even the top market cap stock could offer by itself. With over 200 firms reporting their performance, the first perspective to evaluate is the most rudimentary: speculative leaders and laggards. Starting with the latter, the healthcare sector has come under the greatest pressure these past weeks, so Anthem’s (ANTM) figures would draw atypical interest from the macro crowd. As it happened, their numbers were better than expected; so the threat of the banner bearers for the bears drawing greater scrutiny eased. On the other end of that speculative spectrum, the tech sector has maintained a comfortable lead and urged targeted markets ever higher even when risk was flagging everywhere else. Facebook’s (FB) figures were steeped in caveats and Tesla’s (TSLA) figures were simply bad, but these ‘disruptors’ have relinquished a significant portion of their responsibility for driving optimism lately – the FANG group is good evidence of this. Microsoft (MSFT) – the second largest public company in the world – on the other hand has climbed ever higher. Its quarter was impressive. These tech updates hit the wires afterhours Wednesday evening, so now the attention should be on the Nasdaq’s open Thursday. Market’s will decide their take and conviction, and keep the after-hours Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) releases in mind. Chart of Nasdaq and FAANG Index in Blue (Daily)
Nasdaq this past session took a notable pause in its pace-setting advance to record highs. Though it was only a modest step back, the index did avoid a fresh record high through Wednesday’s close. The question should be raised: what happens if this tech-leveraged index start sinking? The Nasdaq has clearly outpaced the broader S&P 500 – which once again failed to set a new intraday record – while the blue-chip Dow is still leering at record highs while just out of reach. US equities are themselves far outpacing global stocks, emerging markets, junk bonds, carry trade, and most other major asset classes. And so, the other fundamental issues stalking investors’ concerns should be evaluated through the earnings run Wednesday. Growth and trade wars in particular is of considerable interest. Industrial machines manufacturer Caterpillar (CAT) and airplane maker Boeing (BA) would tap both themes. CAT beat earnings per share estimates by 9 cents (at $2.94) but the concerns over trade wars and economic concern with China’s economy slowing highlighted specifically bearing a poor omen for general conditions. Boeing meanwhile was evaluated largely for the tragic technical issues for a particular model, but we shouldn’t forget that they are at the middle of a recent threat made by President Trump to apply $11 billion in tariffs on EU products in retaliation for subsidies paid to competitor Airbus. US 1Q GDP is due on Friday for a data grounding for growth concerns while trade wars is an ever-unfolding plague. Chart of Ratio Between Nasdaq and S&P 500 (Daily)
There is No Mistaking It: Dollar Broke ResistanceFrom systemic themes and the state of general risk trends, we turn to the world’s most liquid currency: the US Dollar. We have watched this currency make repeated attempts to jump start a bull trend sidelined for months…and repeatedly failing. Following three clear and differentiated rejections from 97.75 resistance stretching back to November, the trade-weighted ICE Index finally broke to highs not seen since May 2017 this past session. There is little disputing the commitment to the Greenback’s progress. My equally-weighted Dollar index realized a similar undisputed break to its own highs (which stretch back to January 2017). From its major crosses, the EURUSD’s tumble below 1.1200 was remarkable as it reflects intent of the Dollar against its most liquid counterpart – and slowly lifts us from measures of the narrowest medium-term range (40-week) since the extremes of Summer 2014. A similar USD charge was earned through GBPUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD; but progress was far more restrictive. There are times when a technical breach from a particular measure doesn’t generate the same degree of enthusiasm from its components or alternative measures, but this is not one of those cases. That said, one of my personal approaches to the market’s still holds: a break does not ensure follow through.
Chart of the DXY Dollar Index (Daily) While there is little mistaking the technical break marked this past session, follow through for a wholesale breakout – much less committed trend – will require more than just the attention afforded to the breaking of a noteworthy level. This is not an environment where a chart-based move inspires an avalanche of repositioning. In fact, trend development is the rarity nowadays. If we are to see the benchmark currency capitalize on the progress made thus far, we will most likely need to find a fundamental lightening rod to draw speculative intent. What is motivating the USD to its current charge? There is little support to draw from relative monetary policy which is still significantly deflated from its peak 8 months ago. US indices are clear evidence that there is no panic revitalizing the Greenback’s ultimate havens status. Relative growth advantages for the US economy are also suspect given the downgrades in forecasts from reliable third-party observers (like the IMF and WTO). And, for those that continue to harbor belief that the source of trade wars can somehow benefit from the growth crippling policies, there is no convincing of the practical circumstances. So, where is the Dollar’s appeal originating if all of these outlets are lacking? As the most liquid currency in the world and a last-resort haven, there is an innate appeal for the Greenback when market participants flee other regions. With the Euro, Pound, Yen and Aussie all under pressure; that leaves only one liquid alternative. Having identified that motivation however, it is important to ask ourselves how long we believe the pressure can last. Chart of the DXY Dollar Index and VIX Index in Orange and Implied Fed Forecast in Red (Daily)
A Sharp Aussie Drop and Swiss Franc Rally Offer Appealing Contrast to Aimless Euro, Pound, YenWith the Dollar putting in for important technical developments, it is easy to lose sight of the key counterparts. Yet, as mentioned above, the US currency’s movements are more likely borrowed from the deeper speculative commitment of its major counterparts. Working down the line of liquidity, the Euro was notably lacking for fundamental motivation Wednesday. The docket offered up German business sentiment (IFO) which reported an unexpected contraction last month with a reading of 95.2. The ECB’s economic bulletin was itself interesting with stated concern over the impact of trade wars. That is still nothing new to regular Euro observers. As routine as the event risk may have been this past session, the result was still a critical break from EURUSD below 1.1200 – the 61.8% Fib of the late-2016 to early-2018 bull trend and the same Fibonacci sequence from the pairs historical range from 2000 to 2008. As long-overdue as this bearish break seems, there isn’t a strong fundamental wave to keep it running. Meanwhile, GBPUSD is still moving at the behest of Brexit updates. With Parliament back in session, it is clear that Prime Minister May’s own government is raising pressure on the leader to time her exit while commitment to the next steps necessary to extend negotiations to late October are flagging. From the Yen crosses, the natural interest is to follow risk trends via the carry trade course. However, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decision adds a new facet to the familiar landscape. The group is unlikely to alter course, but further easing would be the more likely outcome should change prove necessary. Making clear the limitations of the BOJ’s influence against the backdrop of a troubled financial system would be an unnecessary risk to take. In contrast to the restricted core ‘majors’, there was more remarkable movement to be registered amongst the second leg, most liquid currencies. The Australian Dollar came under severe duress this past session following the release of the first quarter (1Q) consumer inflation (CPI) data. An important proxy for the RBA’s plans, the headline figure dropped to a 1.3 percent pace (from 1.8) while core price pressures dropped back to 1.6 percent. While there were no rate hikes seen from the Aussie central bank through the foreseeable future, this news raises the probability of a cut from the group at next month’s meeting to near 50-50. Another quality movement outside the norm would come on behalf of the Swiss Franc. There was little on the docket the could reasonably be relied upon to move markets and there is spotty potential moving forward. Following it steady tumble through the past weeks, the currency finally put in for a significant rebound – its largest since February 28th when measured as an equally-weighted index. That would lead to a remarkable move from EURCHF and amplify the drop from the likes of AUDCHF. This is a currency that is more obviously playing the foil to active counterparts, so assumption of innate trends are held low. Learn what is most important for the session ahead, in today’s Trading Video. Chart of AUDUSD (Daily)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-04-25 02:45:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Will BOJ Monetary Policy be Pressured by US-Japan Trade Talks? Posted: 24 Apr 2019 05:44 PM PDT Hits: 13 TALKING POINTS – BOJ MONETARY POLICY, US-JAPAN TRADE TALKS, TRADE WARS
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will be paying unusually close attention to trade talks between Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Aso will be arriving in Washington on Thursday to discuss trade relations to avoid entering into an economic spat with the US. Currency manipulation is widely anticipated to be discussed and may be point of concern that puts both powers at odds with each other. For thirty years, Japanese policymakers have struggled to maintain inflation consistently above the central bank's two percent target. The BOJ has launched several policy measures aimed at boosting inflationary pressure – the titles of which grew to grammatically monstrous lengths. The current program is called: Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Negative Interest Rates and Yield Curve Control. Consequently, the stimulative measures have resulted in a weaker Japanese Yen and this is where the cross-roads between US trade policy and Japanese monetary policy may come into conflict. Mnuchin has stated that in any trade deal reached with Japan that there be a provision put in place to inhibit currency manipulation. The idea being to avoid a situation where one country keeps a currency weak in an effort to boost exports. The White House is looking to close the gap on the US trade deficit with Japan and has leveraged threats of auto tariffs – a similar tactic used against Germany. This is part of the White House's broader campaign of redesigning 21st century global trade relations with an aim at reducing the US's trade deficit on all trading fronts including China and Europe. Following the talks between Aso and Mnuchin, on Friday there will be a summit held at the White House between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Donald Trump. The trade negotiations between the two representatives may then set the stage for higher-level negotiations between the two leaders. For Trump, these trade talks have multi-dimensional consequences. A factor that may complicate the negotiations is the USs unilateral decision to end all Iranian oil-importing waivers to countries that were previously clients. Japan has dramatically reduced its consumption of oil coming out of Iran. The cooperation may be used as leverage in trade talks, showing that Tokyo has already made concessions to the White House's oil policy toward Iran. On the one hand, with the 2020 election coming up, proclaiming victory in trade deals would surely be a feather in his cap and would reinforce his image as a master dealmaker. If he reaches an agreement with China, this might then reinforce his method of employing tariff techniques in achieving trade deals. This could then put the Japanese economy – and global financial markets – at risk of another trade-related headwind. In the event of a US-Japan trade war, the Japanese Yen and US Dollar may rise as a result of increased demand for haven assets at the expense of sentiment-linked assets. These would include the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, Nordic and emerging market assets as well as other currencies that are tied to export-driven economies that rely on global demand. AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Emerging Markets ETF, SEK/USD – Daily Chart Height of the US-China Trade War in 2018
Note: Swedish Krona-US Dollar crosses are conventionally quoted as USD/SEK. Conversely, with the global economy showing greater weakness and financial vulnerability, another trade war may weigh on growth and hurt his constituents that are reliant on healthy global demand for US goods. Trump will have to tip toe this line carefully, and global markets will be waiting with baited breath to see how or if "Tariff Man" will strike again. FX TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter
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| Gold Price Outlook Mired by Head-and-Shoulders Formation Posted: 24 Apr 2019 03:19 PM PDT Hits: 8 Gold Price Talking PointsGold attempts to retrace the decline following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, with the price for bullion bouncing back from a fresh yearly-low ($1266), but there appears to be a broader shift in market behavior as a head-and-shoulders formation starts to unfold.
Gold Price Outlook Mired by Head-and-Shoulders Formation
Gold fails to preserve the opening range for 2019 as Federal Reserve officials talk down the risk for a looming recession, and it seems as though the central bank is in no rush to alter the forward-guidance for monetary policy as Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, a 2019 voting-member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), insists that 'the pace of growth in economic activity will be enough to bring further reductions in the unemployment rate in the near term.' It appears as though the FOMC will stick to the sidelines at the next interest rate decision on May 1 as 'theCommittee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes,' and the central bank may largely promote a wait-and-see approach over the coming months as 'a majority of participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year.'
It remains to be seen if Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. will continue to project a longer-run interest rate of 2.50% to 2.75% amid the inversion in the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and the FOMC may face increased accusations of a policy error as Fed Fund Futures reflect bets for a December rate-cut. Nevertheless, the lack of urgency to alter the forward-guidance may keep the U.S. dollar afloat even though the FOMC plans to wind down the $50B/month in quantitative tightening (QT) over the coming months as 'some participants indicated that if the economy evolved as they currently expected, with economic growth above its longer-run trend rate, they would likely judge it appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate modestly later this year.' With that said, little to no evidence of a U.S. recession may continue to drag on the price for gold as it raises the scope for higher interest rates, and failure to retain the yearly opening range may indicate a broader shift in market behavior as a head-and-shoulders formation starts to unfold. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.
For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Gold Additional Trading ResourcesAre you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-04-24 22:00:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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