Forex News 24

Forex News 24


What Does AUDJPY Price Action Suggest for Risk Assets?

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 01:40 PM PDT

Hits: 4


AUDJPY IMPLIED VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS

The Australian Dollar has appreciated meaningfully against the Japanese Yen so far this year as recovering market sentiment and cratering volatility have supported 'risky' currencies such as the Kiwi relative to 'safe-haven' counterparts like the Yen.

In fact, AUDJPY has inked year-to-date spot returns in excess of 5 percent while the currency pair's 1-week implied volatility has dropped from 16 percent to 7 percent at the same time.

AUDJPY IMPLIED VOLATILITY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (OCTOBER 01, 2018 TO APRIL 12, 2019)

AUDJPY Price Chart Implied Currency Volatility

Moreover, AUDJPY 1-month implied volatility now sits at its lowest level in over a year. Aussie-Yen implied volatility has been on a steady decline since the Japanese Yen Flash Crash back in early January.

Subsequent to this event, AUDJPY has mirrored the rise in global equities with investor concerns over the slowing global growth getting pushed to the back seat following dovish monetary policy from central banks around the world aiming to restore market confidence. The Kiwi also received positive attention as the US-China Trade War progressively deescalated.

FOREX MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITIES AND TRADING RANGES

Forex Market Implied VolatilityCurrency Market Implied Volatility

Collapsing currency market implied volatility is not isolated to AUDJPY and has impacted several major currency pairs. While forex traders typically fiend for market volatility, the lack thereof has increased the relative attractiveness for currency carry trades.

Consequently, the demand for traders to go long high-yielding currencies like the Australian Dollar and take a short position on low-yielding currencies like the Japanese Yen has likely contributed to the strong advance of AUDJPY.

Furthermore, the Deutsche Bank G10 Currency Carry Trade Index has gained roughly 4 percent so far this year which outperforms spot returns across the major currency pairs. If volatility across markets continues to fall, the carry trade and risk assets could keep rising as a result.

AUDJPY TRADER CLIENT SENTIMENT

Australian Dollar Japanese Yen Price Chart Trader Sentiment Client Positioning

Check out IG's Client Sentiment here for more detail on the bullish and bearish biases of EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, Gold, Bitcoin and S&P500.

TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

– Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

– Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter


2019-04-12 20:00:00

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Q1’19 China GDP & USDCNH Price Forecast

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 01:28 PM PDT

Hits: 9


Talking Points:

– The Q1'19 China GDP report is due on Wednesday, April 17 at 02:00 GMT.

The US-China trade war will be blamed for the continued slowdown in the Chinese economy, even as the government guides growth to its weakest rate since 1990.

Retail tradersare starting to fade gains by AUDJPY and NZDJPY, suggesting that China-linked currency crosses may continue to gain ground in the week ahead.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/17 WEDNESDAY | 02:00 GMT | CNY China Gross Domestic Product (1Q)

According to a Bloomberg News survey, the Chinese economy is due to have grown by 6.3% annualized in the first quarter, a slight decline from the 6.4% annualized rate in Q4'18. The Chinese economy, according to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, is set to grow at a pace of 6% to 6.5% in 2019, a slower than the 6.5% growth target in 2018. As the Chinese government 'guides' growth rates lower as the economy matures, one can't dismiss the fact that growth readings are the lowest in three decades.

It’s also important to view the data through the lens of the US-China trade war. The Chinese economy is managed by the central government, and therefore, the targeted rates of decelerated growth are, in a sense, intentional. Unintentional negative consequences on growth can be 'explained away' by the US-China trade war tensions. At least that will be the view portrayed by Chinese government officials. Traders may find that FX markets prove more reactive around US-China trade war news than around the Q1'19 Chinese GDP report.

Pairs to Watch: AUDJPY, Gold, USDCNH

USDCNH Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (December 2017 to April 2019)

usdcnh price forecast, us-china trade war, us-china trade war talks

USDCNH has been a dull currency pair over the past several months. The Chinese government has exerted more control over Yuan settlement rates as the US-China trade war has raged, in effect, allowing the Chinese Yuan to weaken to offset the negative impacts of the dispute (read our notes from July 2018, US-China Trade War Enters New Phase amid Yuan Depreciation and August 2018, USDCNH Appreciation Not a Problem for China, Reserves Figures Show.)

That USDCNH depreciated steadily from November 2018 through February 2019 was a sign that the trade talks were nearing resolution suggests that traders may be wise to take the last six-weeks of sideways price action as an indication that not much progress has been made.

Traders may find that the area around 6.7368 is seen as a "turning point" for sentiment: if USDCNH is above this level, then the US-China trade war talks are worsening; if USDCNH stays below and moves further below this level, then the US-China trade war talks are moving towards resolution.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX





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5 Semiconductor Stocks to Buy … If You Have a Strong Stomach

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 01:22 PM PDT

Hits: 4


It's a tricky time to be adding semiconductor stocks to your portfolio.

On one hand, the industry has seen sentiment improve dramatically over the past few months. Growth in technology looks likely to help keep the momentum going and a deal between the U.S. and China could add a tremendous pop to the sector. However, many analysts are cautioning against jumping into the sector with both feet, citing tepid smartphone sales and worsening macroeconomic conditions.

However, if you can stomach some volatility, here's a look at five semiconductor stocks to buy:

Intel Corp (INTC)

Here's Why New CEO Bob Swan Is Perfect for Intel Stock

Source: Shutterstock

It's been a troubling year for Intel (NYSE:INTC) stock investors — the tech firm has been undergoing a major shift from relying on its antiquated PC business to focusing on its data center arm, which makes processors for things like data centers and the Internet of Things. With the Data Center Group now making up more than half of Intel's overall revenue, the company's turnaround days are firmly in the rearview mirror. 

There are a few reasons Intel is a great bet right now — namely the fact that the firm is closely tied to China. Most are expecting to see the trade tensions between the U.S. and China resolved this year, which would be beneficial for semiconductor stocks overall, but Intel may be one of the biggest winners.

Intel sells roughly 40% of its products to China, so a positive outcome would be big news for INTC stock.

Plus, it doesn't hurt that Intel is one of the biggest, most stable firms on this list. Intel's dividend yields a respectable 2.26%, which could help investors stomach the volatility that comes along with investing in semiconductors.

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI) is another semiconductor stock on the rise as the U.S.-China trade tensions wind down, but what makes this company an interesting opportunity is its strength in the automotive sector. NXP has a strong position among carmakers — it is the largest semiconductor supplier in the industry and its automotive business makes up half of its overall revenue. That's a big deal because electronic advancement in the automotive market is all but certain over the next few years.

Cars are getting continuously smarter, and with autonomous driving becoming more of a reality it's not a stretch to imagine that the demand for semiconductors among automakers will be strong over the next 5 years. Carmakers will be reluctant to switch to competing products as they continue to build out connected technology for their vehicles and NXPI's stronghold in that industry means the shares will likely be long-term winners.

From a valuation standpoint, NXP makes sense considering it trades at a P/E of just 14.3- below the industry average and well below many of its peers.

Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)

NVIDIA Stock nvda stock

If you're looking for a semiconductor stock that's got a bit more of a risk/reward profile, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) could be your best bet. The GPU firm has made a solid recovery so far this year, but NVDA stock is still miles away from its all-time highs above $290. NVDA stock suffered when cryptocurrency demand nosedived, and that created an inventory issue that has weighed on the share price for months. Most are expecting NVDA to put out disappointing Q1 and Q2 figures (management has already guided for a revenue decline of 31% in the first quarter), but after that things look likely to improve.

The case for NVDA goes like this: investors have already digested the cryptocurrency issues and the results of that misstep are evident in the first half of the year. The second half, however, is where Nvidia's long-term growth story shines. The firm's growth potential in both the gaming sector and data center spaces is still strong, that narrative has never changed. 

That's where the risk comes in … if Nvidia is able to show that its growth potential is still intact in the back half of the year, NVDA stock should make its way toward its previous highs. However, a weak Q3 and Q4 could confirm bears' suspicions that the firm isn't able to deliver high growth without the cryptocurrency market propping it up.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)

How to Trade broadcom Stock After CA Acquisition

Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) impressed investors earlier in March when it reported better than expected revenue for the fiscal first quarter. The good news sent AVGO stock up roughly 10% in just 24 hours and the firm has managed to hold on to those gains for the past month. Not only has AVGO benefitted from improved sentiment in the semiconductor space, but analysts seem to love the stock which has helped boost shares. 

So can the rally continue? That depends on your outlook. AVGO is poised to benefit from the expansion of 5G smartphone connectivity as well as growth in the Internet of Things. Smartphone growth has been stagnant recently, which could put a damper on AVGO's results this year and in turn hurt sentiment surrounding the stock.

With that said, investors who are willing to stomach some peaks and valleys are rewarded with a 3.45% dividend yield, which sets the firm apart from its peers in the industry.

Keysight Technologies (KEYS)

Source: Shutterstock

Keysight Technologies (NYSE:KEYS) stock has been another impressive performer so far this year and the company has the potential to keep climbing if sentiment remains positive for the industry. One of the big reasons analysts are worried about semiconductor stocks has been 5G and whether or not smartphone sales will pick up to support the demand everyone has been expecting. 

What's good about KEYS is that the company has big bets in the defense market-making it a more defensive play than some of the others on this list. Of course, KEYS is also dependent on the 5G market as the firm is heavily involved in R&D for 5G infrastructure, but it has solid footing in the defense space means there's some cushion if the 5G optimism starts to fade.

As of this writing, Laura Hoy was long INTC stock.

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Q1’19 New Zealand CPI & NZDUSD Price Forecast

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 01:03 PM PDT

Hits: 5


Talking Points:

– The Q1'19 New Zealand Consumer Price Index is due on Tuesday, April 16 at 22:45 GMT.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has taken on a more dovish tone in recent months, with rates markets leaning towards a 25-bps rate cut in June.

Retail tradersare net-long NZDUSD but recent positioning changes point to more losses.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/16 TUESDAY | 22:45 GMT | NZD Consumer Price Index (1Q)

Q1'19 New Zealand inflation data are due to underscore the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent concerns about a sluggish economy, according to Bloomberg News surveys. Following the collapse of both agricultural and energy commodity prices in Q4'18, the prevailing trend of low inflation across the developed economic world is expected spread to New Zealand's shore. Quarterly price pressures are expected in at +0.3% after having gained +0.1% in Q4'18, while the yearly reading is due in at +1.7% from +1.9%.

rbnz rate expectations, reserve bank of new zealand rate expectations, rbnz rate cut

Despite the expected decline in inflation readings, traders may want to be alert for potentially better than expected price pressures. New Zealand Terms of Trade likely rebounded in Q1'19 because of a sharp rebound in milk product prices. The New Zealand Global Dairy Trade (GDT) Price Index was up nearly 17% in the first quarter, which should have helped inflation readings stabilize.

As such, even if inflation remains below the RBNZ's medium-term target of +2%, a 'beat' on the data may see rates markets fail to become any more dovish than they currently are priced. After all, rates markets are pricing-in a 54.9% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by June 2019. Simply pushing back the timing of the first expected hike to September 2019 could provoke a short-term rally by the New Zealand Dollar.

Pairs to Watch: AUDNZD, NZDJPY, NZDUSD

NZDUSD Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (June 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

nzdusd price chart, nzdusd price forecast, nzdusd forecast

Since bottoming out of its 2018 downtrend in early-November, NZDUSD has spent most of 2019 consolidating in a symmetrical triangle. In April so far, price has broken down through the March low at 0.6745 and temporarily broken through the February low at 0.6720, culminating in a break of the uptrend from the October 2018 and January 2019 lows.

But as price action on Friday, April 12 drew to a close, the NZDUSD daily price candle was working on a bullish outside engulfing bar, suggesting that the recent breakdown lower may indeed me a false breakout. In the coming days, a return back within the symmetrical triangle would validate this point of view, and in turn suggest that the odds of return back towards symmetrical triangle resistance (coming in near 0.6900) would increase materially; a better than expected Q1'19 New Zealand CPI report could be the catalyst required.

IG Client Sentiment Index: NZDUSD (April 12, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs nzdusd, ig client sentiment index, nzdusd price chart

Retail trader data shows 70.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.34 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since April 2 when NZDUSD traded near 0.67513; price has moved 0.3% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 11.9% lower than yesterday and 2.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.5% lower than yesterday and 17.9% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZDUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger NZDUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX


2019-04-12 19:30:00

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FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 12:36 PM PDT

Hits: 7


Forex Talking Points:

– DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts for Q2 have been recently released, and are available directly from the following link: DailyFX Trading Guides, Q2 Forecasts.

– For trading ideas, please check out our Trading Guides. And if you're looking for something more interactive in nature, please check out our DailyFX Live webinars.

– If you'd like more color around any of the setups below, join in our live DailyFX webinars each week, set for Tuesday and Thursday at 1PM Eastern Time. You can sign up for each of those sessions from the below link:

Tuesday: Tuesday, 1PM ET

Thursday: Thursday 1PM ET

Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

EURUSD: Support Bounce Builds Bullish Channel – Bear Flag Potential

In the latter-portion of last week, matters didn't look very positive for the Euro. EURUSD had started to re-test a key zone of support in the opening days of Q2, and a considerable amount of grind developed in this area last week. But, as looked at in FX Setups, this kept the door open for bullish strategies in EURUSD with the expectation for the multi-month range to hold, and both targets were met as buyers pushed-higher after the ECB/FOMC Minutes releases on Wednesday of this week.

At this point, that support bounce has built into a bullish channel, and given the prior bearish move, this could be called a bear flag formation. This would be a shorter-term observation in the midst of a longer-term range; and this sets a fairly interesting table for short-term strategies around EURUSD.

For next week, bullish short-term potential remains, looking for prices to hold higher-low support above the 1.1280-1.1300 area that exhibited resistance on Thursday. A hold of support here through the Monday open keeps the potential for prices to test deeper within the longer-term range formation, targeting 1.1400 and then 1.1448.

EURUSD Two-Hour Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd two hour price chart

For short-strategies, there are a few possible ways of moving forward. The first, and bigger-picture approach, would be looking for a break of range support around the 1.1175 level that was looked at last week. Alternatively, should buyers remain in-control long enough to allow for an inflection at range resistance, from 1.1448 up to 1.1500, the short-side theme can re-open for range continuation. And for traders with shorter-term approaches that do want to look for a bear flag break, a push below the 1.1250 level could re-open the door for support tests at 1.1212, followed by 1.1187, and perhaps even a bearish breakout below the 1.1175 level that's currently marking the 21-month low in the pair.

EURUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart

eur/usd eurusd eight hour price chart

GBPUSD: Bearish Potential Below 1.3200

A similar setup had presented itself in GBPUSD last week, in which longer-term support was helping to hold the lows in the midst of a shorter-term case of digestion.

GBP/USD closed last week after yet another test of the 1.2962-1.3000 support zone. This marks the fourth separate iteration of support tests in this zone since mid-February, and that support has held up through some rather aggressive fundamental themes. But, also as seen in EURUSD above, bearish potential remained should that support give way, and in terms of the British Pound, this equated to a descending triangle formation when incorporating that horizontal support with a trend-line taken from lower-highs produced in March.

For next week, I want to look at bearish strategies in the pair and I'm even willing to accept a topside break of that bearish trend-line; instead focusing in on the confluent zone of Fibonacci resistance that previously held the April swing-highs. This takes place from 1.3181-1.3187; and a hold of resistance at-or-below this zone early next week keeps the door open for short-side strategies in the pair. Initial targets could be sought out at 1.3035, followed by the big zone of support that runs from 1.2962-1.3000; and if bears can pose a downside push, then the longer-term descending triangle will be filling-in, at which point additional short-side targets could be sought out around the 1.2900 zone.

GBPUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

gbpusd gbp/usd four hour price chart

USD/JPY Potential Bullish Breakout on Build of Inverse Head and Shoulders

I had focused-in on this one in the Thursday webinar as themes of Yen-weakness have re-appeared with prominence in the early days of Q2. USD/JPY had built into an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, and as I shared there, traders would likely want to look at the resistance level around 112.00 before staging longer-term bullish strategies.

That area has come back into play as USD/JPY makes a push towards fresh 2019 highs. For next week, this theme can remain as attractive; but entry may remain as a challenge given that the breakout has already started to take place.

Traders can look for resistance a little higher at a key level on the chart of 112.34. This is the 76.4% retracement of the November, 2017 to March, 2018 major move; and this level has already functioned as support over a month in Q4, when it helped to set the swing-low just before the big bout of risk aversion showed up in the Yen. This Fibonacci study has also been usable through 2019 trade, with all of the 38.2, 50, and 61.8% retracements functioning as resistance-turned-support.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart

us dollar usd daily price chart

A resistance test at this level can open the door for an element of higher-low support, and that could keep the door open for bullish trend continuation strategies. For higher-low support after a 112.34 test, traders can look to the 111.50 level that produced a short-term evening star earlier this week, extended up to last week's swing-high at 111.81. A second possible area remains for support should a pullback drive through that first zone, and this runs from 111.13 up to 111.29. IF prices are unable to hold above the 110.86 area that marks this week's swing low, the bullish near-term theme in USDJPY would be invalidated.

USD/JPY Two-Hour Price Chart

usdjpy usd/jpy two hour price chart

USDCAD: Bearish on Hold Below 1.3450

I had looked at the short-side of USD/CAD coming into this week, largely predicated on the basis of resistance holding at a big zone of long-term interest. That resistance has held through this week's trade, keeping the door open for short-side strategies in the pair. This could fit especially well with themes or strategies based around USD-weakness, with the expectation that the longer-term ascending triangle in USD may take some time to fill-in.

In USD/CAD, a revisit to the resistance zone that runs from 1.3161-1.3185 opens the door for short-side swings, with target potential around 1.3300 followed by 1.3250.

USDCAD Four-Hour Price Chart

usdcad usd/cad four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers a plethora of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at.

If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX





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10 Screaming Buys That Are the Best Stocks to Buy Right Now

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 12:35 PM PDT

Hits: 4


[Editor's Note: This story originally appeared on March 2018 but has since been updated and republished. Some of the picks may no longer be recommended by the original author.]

For investors prepared to put in the work, there are plenty of gems to be found. I set out to pinpoint the best stocks to buy right now using the best analysts on Wall Street as guidance. TipRanks tracks and measures the performance of over 4,700 analysts enabling investors to identify consistently outperforming experts.

Analysts are ranked based on two crucial factors: success rate and average return-per-recommendation. Following top analysts is an easy way to identify stocks that experts believe have strong investing potential. That's why I'm only including companies with a 'Strong Buy' top analyst consensus based on the past three months of ratings.

Using this consensus, investors can be reassured that these stocks are the crème-de-la-crème as far as the Street is concerned.

Bearing this in mind, let's dive in and take a closer look at the top 10 best stocks to buy right now:

10 Stocks That Are Screaming Buys: Facebook (FB)

Best Stocks to Buy: Facebook (FB)

Source: Shutterstock

Social media giant Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) is one of the best stocks to invest in right now. Shares are trading at $1. And now we have a clear buying opportunity on our hands according to two top analysts.

Looking at TipRanks best-performing analysts, FB stock is expected to see more upside, despite tremendous growth already, with prices spiking to $194.26.

Meanwhile, top-100 analyst KeyBanc analyst Andy Hargreaves adds, "We believe this provides an opportunity to purchase above-average growth at Facebook for a price that is well below average."

He believes investors are heavily discounting FB's growth prospects and extraordinary core momentum. His $245 price target suggests even greater upside potential with FB rising to $195.

Boeing (BA)

Best Stocks to Buy: Boeing (BA)

One of the world's largest aerospace companies, shares in Boeing (NYSE:BA) slipped last year on trade war fears, and BA dropped again after one of its planes — the 737 Max — malfunctioned. But Head of Research at Fundstrat Tom Lee believes the market overreacted.

He has calculated that Boeing actually has a trade war exposure of just 35.2%. To calculate this figure, Lee looked at the company's overseas sourcing as a percentage of cost of goods sold and exports as a percentage of sales. A percentage under 40% means the company has a low trade war exposure, according to Lee.

And in this case, despite all the trade war noise, I would recommend carefully considering Boeing right now. After all, BA stock has received 11"buy" ratings in the past four months, with three analysts on the sidelines. With a $436 average price target, upside potential stands at 38%. But some analysts are much more bullish than consensus.

For example, five-star Cowen & Co analyst Cai Rumohr singles out BA as one of the best stocks to buy. He has a bullish $445 price target.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)

Best Stocks to Buy: Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)

Source: Alexion Pharmaceuticals

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ALXN) is a U.S. pharma company best known for its development of Soliris, a drug used to treat rare blood disorders. And top Oppenheimer analyst Hartaj Singh selected ALXN as his top stock to buy for February-March. Bear in mind this is a five-star analyst with a top-200 ranking on TipRanks (out of over 4,700).

Singh is confident that Alexion can explode more than 40% from just $116 to $165. He says the stock's risk/reward profile is oriented to the upside making this a top stock to invest in right now.

He concludes: "With a robust rare disease platform, a slowing yet cash-generating asset in Soliris, and two newly launched products in Strensiq and Kanuma, we believe that it is not a question of if, but rather when, the shares positively re-rate."

In total, Alexion has scored seven buy ratings and only two hold ratings from best-performing analysts in the past three months. These analysts predict that Alexion will rise roughly 41% to reach $164.44.

Pioneer Natural (PXD)

Best Stocks to Buy: Pioneer Natural (PXD)

Source: Shutterstock

Texas-based Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) is on the cusp of great things. The company is divesting all non-Permian assets. This asset sale should raise PXD about $1 billion and it transforms PXD into a pure-play on the Permian Basin. Given that this is one of the world's most lucrative oil fields, that's no bad thing.

B. Riley FBR analyst Rehan Rashid applauds the company's "strategic realignment." He says the move will enable PXD to ramp up its investment in its Permian assets.

"We believe this platform and the substantial resource base it has to offer are simply not replicable. We reiterate our 'buy' rating and $305 price target and add PXD to the B. Riley FBR Alpha Generator list" says Rashid. He calculates "new" resource potential of nearly 20 billion BOE (barrels of oil or equivalent).

TipRanks shows that Pioneer has received 11 buy ratings and one hold ratings from analysts. Considering that the stock is now at $151, analysts are projecting (on average) upside potential of 58%.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)

Best Stocks to Buy: Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)

Source: Shutterstock

Global biotech stock Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) is a prime investing pick right now with a growing portfolio of cystic fibrosis (CF) drugs. This is a genetic disorder that causes severe damage to the lungs, digestive system and other organs in the body.

The company scored a key approval from the FDA for its third CF drug, Symdeko, earlier this year. The approval came two weeks earlier than expected and "potentially speaks to the FDA's growing comfort with the suite of VRTX medicines" says JP Morgan's Cory Kasimov.

"We continue to believe that VRTX's dominance in the CF space, compelling bottom-line growth trajectory (43% CAGR through 2022), and significant free cash flow generation could potentially allow the company to substantially expand the breadth of its investor base" cheers Kasimov. So watch this space.

Overall, this "strong buy" stock scored 13 top buy ratings and just one "hold" rating in the past few months. Meanwhile, the average analyst price target of $211 works out to 15% upside from current share levels.

Raytheon (RTN)

Best Stocks to Buy: Raytheon (RTN)

Source: Shutterstock

Defense giant Raytheon Company (NYSE:RTN) is the world's largest producer of guided missiles. As with Boeing, you may be concerned that this stock would suffer in the event of a trade war. However, you can rest easy.

According to research firm Fundstrat, it actually has a trade-war exposure percentage of 35.2% (again, anything under 40% is considered low). And from a Street perspective, the outlook on RTN is also very bullish right now.

"Strong broad order momentum, a large Patriot backlog, and untapped financial firepower give RTN extended EPS and cash flow per share growth potential" cheers five-star Cowen & Co. analyst Cai Rumohr.

With a strong outlook for 2019 and the subsequent years, RTN has received four buy ratings from the best analysts in the last three months. In this same period, two analysts have remained on the sidelines. The average analyst price target indicates 7% upside potential from the current share price.

Alibaba (BABA)

Best Stocks to Buy: Alibaba (BABA)

Source: Shutterstock

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has a "strong buy" analyst consensus rating with big upside potential of 11%. The Street is unanimous in its take on BABA as one of the best stocks to invest in right now.

I say that because in the last ten months, this stock has received no hold or sell ratings from the Street. Just 100% buy ratings.

Key growth drivers to keep a close watch on include rural/cross-border/cloud/logistics. For example, AliCloud (Alibaba's answer to Amazon Web Services) revenue is soaring with triple-digit year-over-year growth.

Skechers USA (SKX)

Best Stocks to Buy: Skechers USA (SKX)

Source: Shutterstock

Skechers (NYSE:SKX) is primed for significant expansion. Even after a 60% rise last year, the company remains notably undervalued compared to its athletic retail peers.

Following a blowout fourth-quarter earnings report, Poser is confident that the stock's solid momentum is here to stay. "Another significant earnings beat reinforces our belief that SKX is at the beginning of a multiyear run of superior earnings growth and outsized investor returns," he said.

According to Poser, SKX is now seeing strength in "all its businesses." The company's domestic wholesale business is inflecting while the potential for growth in international markets is robust. He predicts that strong Chinese growth will enable management to meet its targeted $6 billion in revenue by 2020. This suggests an impressive CAGR rate of roughly 13%.

"A premium multiple is warranted as we are confident that the SKX business is on the verge of a material positive inflection," Poser concludes in his Feb. 9 report. On Skechers specifically, Poser has a 75% success rate and 37.6% average return across 43 stock ratings.

In the last three months, Skechers has received five buys and five holds, and an average price target of $31.

2U Inc (TWOU)

Best Stocks to Buy: 2U Inc (TWOU)

Source: Shutterstock

Online education platform 2U (NASDAQ:TWOU) received a slew of price target increases from the Street this year. On May 3, the company reported Q4 results ahead of expectations. This marks its sixteenth consecutive quarter of outperformance. 2U's Q4 organic revenue growth accelerated to about 30% year-over-year, and guidance implies another year of "Tier 1" industry revenue growth.

"We believe long-term investors will be rewarded over the years as 2U disrupts and transforms the post-secondary education landscape with little credible threat over the medium term" states Schwartz. This top-10 analyst has a $70 price target on TWOU.

In the last three months, this stock to buy boasts five buy ratings from the Street's best analysts.

MasTec (MTZ)

Best Stocks to Buy: MasTec (MTZ)

Source: Shutterstock

Last but not least of all the best stocks to invest in, we have Florida-based specialty contractor engineer MasTec (NYSE:MTZ). The company's work spans electric power infrastructure, oil and natural gas pipelines, renewable energy facilities and wireless networks. Strength across the board has resulted in 100% Street support with four top analysts publishing recent buy ratings. These analysts spy near-60% upside potential for MTZ.

The company has released very strong Q4 results last month. Notably, cash flow and liquidity remained strong, giving MTZ flexibility for organic and acquisitive growth.

Which best stocks to buy are the top 25 analysts recommending right now? Find out here.

TipRanks offers investors the latest insight into eight different sectors by tracking the activity of 4,500 analysts, 5,000 financial bloggers and even 37,000 corporate insiders. As of this writing, Harriet Lefton did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

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April 12, 2019 : shall the GBP/USD respect the current confluence of supply levels around 1.3150-1.3170.

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 12:15 PM PDT

Hits: 3


analytics5cb0c9ae909bd.jpg

On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend managed to initiate two successive bullish waves towards 1.3200 (Jan. 25) then 1.3350 (Feb. 27) before the bearish pullback brought the GBPUSD pair towards the uptrend on March 8th.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 – 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection. This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair.

Currently, the price zone of 1.3140-1.3170 currently corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel where another bearish movement may be initiated.

Bearish rejection is still anticipated around the current price levels (1.3140-1.3170).

Further bearish decline is expected towards 1.2920-1.2900 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Any bullish pullback towards 1.3150-1.3170 should be considered for another SELL entry. TP levels to be located around 1.3100, 1.3020 then 1.2950 – 1.2920.

S/L to be located above 1.3190.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
2019-04-12 17:27:54



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Friday Apple Rumors: AAPL Patent Mentions Face ID on Mac

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 11:59 AM PDT

Hits: 6


Leading the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) rumor mill today is details from a recent patent. Today, we'll look at that and other Apple Rumors for Friday.

Friday Apple Rumors: AAPL Patent Mentions Face ID on MacMac Face ID: A new patent from Apple mentions a system similar to Face ID working on a Mac, reports 9to5Mac. The patent describes how a camera on a Mac could be used to identify a person and automatically wake the computer up for them if it is in sleep mode. The use of this camera specifically mentions if the device is in Power Nap mode. This same patent seems to suggest that Magic Keyboards may be getting the Touch Bar.

App Subscriptions: Apple is changing how users sign up for subscriptions to apps, MacRumors notes. The company is now requiring users to go through an extra step of confirmation when purchasing an app that has a renewing subscription. This includes a popup that explains how subscription apps work. It also highlights how users can cancel subscriptions to help avoid unwanted renewals.

iPhone Assembly: Foxconn is preparing to start assembling another AAPL smartphone in India, reports AppleInsider. This will have the company making the iPhone X in the country. Foxconn will reportedly start making the iPhone X in India in July. This assembly is going to take place at its plant in Chennai.

As of this writing, William White did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2019/04/apple-patent-mentions-face-id-on-mac/.

©2019 InvestorPlace Media, LLC

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S&P 500 Grasps at New Highs as Retail Traders Fear Past Declines

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 11:48 AM PDT

Hits: 3


S&P 500 Outlook Talking Points:

S&P 500 Grasps at New Highs as Retail Traders Fear Past Declines

As the S&P 500 looks to retest all-time highs, market participants may be more sensitive to risk this time around. With the S&P 500 approaching levels that preceded prior declines in January and September of 2018, investors are keen to investigate each threat to the rally.

One such threat may be the emerging market bond ETF (EMB). The fund saw its largest outflow since February 5, 2018 and the S&P 500 subsequently slumped about 1%. After the streak of outflows was finished and the fund registered its next net inflow (10 days later) the S&P 500 had sunk 4.4%. During the streak, the fund saw nearly $2.2 billion leave its coffers.

Despite the considerable risk-off mood that swept over markets during this period, the S&P 500 rebounded by roughly 2.8% over the following four weeks. It is important to note that previous outflows for the fund trailed declines in the S&P 500 which reduces the efficacy of the fund as a leading indicator and with that in mind, the cause for concern due to the outflow is seriously mitigated.

S&P 500 price chart and EMB ETF

Further, EMB flows were largely unbothered by the index's decline in September and recorded net inflows through the end of 2018. In fact, Tuesday's outflow from EMB may be due to a report from the IMF which highlighted emerging market debt as an area of global weakness. While the longer-term implications of emerging market weakness are certainly worrisome, it seems a stretch to pin the outflow as a precursor to another S&P 500 retracement.

Similarly, mutual fund flows – typically indicative of retail trader funds – have seen roughly $9.70 billion in outflows last week, with the vast majority from equities. The data gathered by the Investment Company Institute bolsters a bullish case – as we typically take a contrarian view to retailer sentiment. This research is compounded by our own findings at IG.

S&P 500 price chart and sentiment

Over the past few weeks, IG retail traders have only increased their short exposure to the S&P 500. During this time, the S&P 500 has climbed relatively unbothered. With the advent of earnings season, a string of positive earnings from JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and PNC Bank have set high standards for upcoming reports. Follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for equity insight and earnings season updates.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: S&P 500 Trading Volume: A Black Hole Around Fed Minutes

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.


2019-04-12 18:30:00

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Why Valuation Worries Could Hurt Twilio (TWLO) Stock

Posted: 12 Apr 2019 11:22 AM PDT

Hits: 6


One of the market's best-performing stocks over the past several quarters has been software giant Twilio (NASDAQ:TWLO), and with good reason.

Twilio Stock Is Ready to Top Out, but Keep Your Eyes Peeled for a Big Dip

Twilio stock is up more than 300% over the past two years. The company has pioneered a new market called Communication Platforms-as-a-Service (CPaaS), which essentially gives enterprises the ability to communicate in real-time via voice, text, and video with their customers.

Enterprises love this market, and Twilio is the king of the market. Consequently, as the CPaaS market has exploded higher over the past two years, so has Twilio's revenue and customer base, causing Twilio stock to soar.

This trend should continue in the long-run. TWLO is the unrivaled king of a non-cyclical growth market with huge potential. The company also has healthy gross margins, and significant room for operating-spending leverage. As a result, Twilio is clearly poised to generate robust revenue and profit growth over the next several years. That combination will ultimately drive Twilio stock meaningfully higher in the long-run.

But in the short-term, valuation concerns related to TWLO stock are warranted, and that may put a lid on Twilio stock in the near-term.

Valuation concerns are nothing new for Twilio stock. Bears were concerned about valuation when Twilio was a $30 stock. No,it's a $125 stock. Clearly, TWLO stock has been able to shrug off valuation concerns in the past. That may very well continue to happen as investors concentrate on the  long-term outlook of TWLO stock.

Nonetheless, investors should be cautious about TWLO. Twilio stock is a long-term winner. But  in the near-term, investors will be concerned about the stock's valuation at its current levels, and as a result, on any operational hiccup, TWLO stock could be weak.

The Long Term Outlook Is Promising

The CPaaS market is the future, and that bodes well for TWLO stock's long term potential.

We live in a world in which everyone is connected via phones, and phones are used primarily for real-time communication (think texts, push notifications, and the like). Consequently, it is increasingly important for enterprises to reach their customers through real-time communication, in order to maximize reach and awareness.

CPaaS enables enterprises to do that by giving them real-time communication tools they can use to reach their customers via messages, voice, and video. For example, Uber can text its customers when their rides are close, and Postmates texts its customers when their food is close to being delivered.

CPaaS is all about consumer-facing companies communicating directly and dynamically with their customers, in order to personalize and enhance their customers' experience.

That is the future. And TWLO is pioneering this future with the industry's best CPaaS solution. That's why this company has consistently reported revenue growth north of 50%, customer growth north of 30%, and retention rates north of 95%.

But TWLO only has roughly 60,000 customers. There are well over 100 million businesses globally. Not all of them will tap into the CPaaS market, but it's clear that Twilio is in the first inning of a huge growth opportunity. Indeed, IDC thinks that the CPaaS market is just getting started. Revenues across the space in 2017 were  $2 billion, and its revenues in 2022 are expected to come in at $10.9 billion.

Consequently, as long as Twilio remains the leader of the  CPaaS market, this company should grow rapidly for a long time. That huge growth will power TWLO stock higher over the long-run.

The $125 Price Tag  Is a Stretch for Now

Although  TWLO's long-term growth outlook is powerful, in the near-term,  concerns about the valuation of Twilio stock are warranted. That's because, even if we assume that TWLO  will grow a great deal over the long-term, the current price of Twilio stock seems stretched.

Using numbers from IDC and Twilio, it's easy to see that Twilio's share of the CPaaS market has dropped as the market has matured over the past few years. That makes sense.

Back in 2015, TWLO was largely the only real player in the market. Since then, multiple companies have entered the market , and as those new players have jumped onto the scene, Twilio's market share has dropped. That's natural and nothing to worry about.

Based on the latest available data, from 2017, Twilio controls about 20% of the CPaaS market. In a best-case scenario, as the market matures and the number of new players drops, Twilio will be able to increase its market share to 25%.

IDC thinks this market will be worth over $10 billion by 2022, up more than 500% from 2017. Assuming growth slows but remains robust, the CPaaS market could easily double between 2022 and 2025 and hit $20 billion.

If TWLO's market share reaches  25% when the market is worth $20 billion,  its top  line would reach $5 billion. Assuming its gross margins expand towards 60%, and its operating-spending rate normalizes lower to 35%, then 25% operating margins seem doable by 2025. In that scenario, its operating profits would be $1 billion.

That could easily result in earnings per share of $5   That's up dramatically from this year's projected EPS of 10 cents. But, it's still not enough to warrant a price per share of $125 . Based on a forward price-earnings multiple of 37, which is average for application software companies, that implies a reasonable 2024 price target for Twilio stock of $185. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a 2019 price target of under $115.

The Bottom Line on Twilio Stock

TWLO stock is a long-term winner. But near-term concerns about its valuation are very well-founded, and will likely limit the advances of TWLO stock for the foreseeable future.

As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. 

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01. Espresso Machines review|
02. Gaming Keyboards review|
03. Gaming Headsets review|
04. Virtual Reality Headsets review|
05. Cordless Drills review|
06. Electric Keyboards review|
07. Gaming Mouse review|
08. Gaming Monitors review|
09. Gaming Laptops review|
10. WiFi Routers review|

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