Forex News 24 |
- Thursday’s Vital Data: Intel, Netflix, and Freeport McMoRan
- FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: Australia Inflation; BOC Meeting; US GDP and More
- ACB Stock: Why Aurora Cannabis Is Issuing So Much Stock and Debt
- Q1’19 US GDP & EURUSD Price Forecast
- You don't want to miss this!
- Market Cycles | Phases, Stages, and Common Characteristics
- Bitcoin is about to drop – Analysis for April 19,2019
- Why the Valuation of Procter & Gamble Stock Looks High
- March US Durable Goods Orders & USDJPY Price Forecast
- CRON Stock: Cronos Stock Shrugs Off Negative Analyst Report
| Thursday’s Vital Data: Intel, Netflix, and Freeport McMoRan Posted: 19 Apr 2019 01:57 PM PDT Hits: 6 U.S. stock futures are rallying into the open this morning.  Source: Shutterstock Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 0.17% and S&P 500 futures are higher by 0.22%. Nasdaq-100 futures have added 0.18%. Resistance near last year's peak flexed its muscles Wednesday, thwarting the market rally. In the options pits, calls continued to dominate and overall volume climbed to above-average levels. Specifically, about 19.1 million calls and 14.6 million puts changed hands on the session. Meanwhile, over at the CBOE, the single-session equity put/call volume ratio fell to 0.55. The 10-day moving average continued hovering near 0.60. Options traders swarmed in the following stocks: Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX) Let's take a closer look:
Intel (INTC)In yesterday's vital data we highlighted the unexpected settlement between Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) that sent QCOM stock skyrocketing. It turns out Intel was another beneficiary to the news. With AAPL officially befriending Qualcomm for all of its 5G needs, Intel decided to abandon its efforts at developing cellphone modems designed for 5G internet. Rather than punishing Intel for the lost opportunity, investors are rewarding the chipmaker for exiting what was likely to be an unprofitable venture. With Wednesday's 3.26% gain, INTC stock closed at a fresh 19-year high. Its uptrend is on solid footing heading into next week's earnings announcement. On the options trading front, calls ruled the roost. Activity swelled to 447% of the average daily volume, with 280,589 total contracts traded. Calls claimed 63% of the day's take. The pre-earnings volatility ramp continued with a rise to 31% or the 44th percentile of its one-year range. Premiums are pricing in daily moves of $1.14 or 1.9%. Netflix (NFLX)Netflix entered its earnings release with the specter of Disney's (NYSE:DIS) Disney Plus hanging over its head. Fortunately for the streaming king, its quarterly numbers were sufficient to lay investor fears to rest for now. NFLX stock ended the day down 1.31%, which is an extremely quiet reaction compared to some of its monster gaps from past quarters. For the first quarter, Netflix earned 76 cents per share compared to analyst expectations of 57 cents. Revenue also came in above expectations at $4.52 billion versus 4.50 billion. On the options trading front, calls outpaced puts by a slim margin despite the day's descent. Total activity climbed to 241% of the average daily volume, with 392,668 contracts traded. Calls accounted for 55% of the sum. Traders were baking in an earnings gap of 6.5%, so the 1.31% slide came in well below expectations. Chalk this quarter up to a massive win for volatility sellers. Freeport McMoRan (FCX)FCX stock was percolating on Thursday as traders jockeyed for positions ahead of its earnings announcement. The copper and gold company traded up 5% before profit-taking slammed it back to unchanged on the day. This year's recovery has taken FCX shares up some 40% to reclaim the high side of its 200-day moving average. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are also rising loyally beneath to confirm buyers have wrested control of the short- and intermediate-term trends. Bulls shouldn't rest on their laurels, however. The past four earnings announcements have generated intense selling pressure. Here's to hoping next week's event doesn't undo this year's progress. On the options trading front, traders came after calls with a vengeance. Activity jumped to 385% of the average daily volume, with 192,024 total contracts traded. 86% of the trading came from call options alone. Implied volatility rallied to 47% placing it at the 36th percentile of its one-year range. Premiums are pricing in daily moves of 42 cents or 3%. As of this writing, Tyler Craig held neutral options positions in Disney. Check out his recently released Bear Market Survival Guide to learn how to defend your portfolio against market volatility. Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all. Can you get gilded from fx trading? The serve is if you go from canadian forex, and unchaste forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is locomote in forex 1 buck canadian, netdania forex, work chockablock advantage of the forex system indicators, and appraisal the programme fx strategy. We testament succeed win all.
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| FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: Australia Inflation; BOC Meeting; US GDP and More Posted: 19 Apr 2019 01:54 PM PDT Hits: 8 Talking Points: – The Q1'19 Australia inflation report will help keep the RBA on hold for now, but traders shouldn't dismiss rising odds of a rate cut later this year. – With oil prices continuing their rebound, the Bank of Canada is no longer expected to cut rates over the next six-months. – The initial Q1'19 US GDP report is expected to show that concerns over a recession induced by the US government shutdown were overblown. Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below. 04/24 WEDNESDAY | 01:30 GMT | AUD CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (1Q)Due in at 1.5% from 1.9% (y/y), the Q1'19Australia inflation report is expected to be another signpost for the RBA that necessitates neutrality in its policy stance in the near-term and perhaps more dovish considerations by the end of the year. Even though labor markets have continued to improve in recent months, a lack of wage growth and rising indebtedness of households (already at all-time highs) makes for a concerning future for consumption trends. Read the full report: Q1'19 Australia Inflation Report & AUDUSD Price Forecast 04/24 WEDNESDAY | 14:00 GMT | CAD BANK OF CANADA RATE DECISIONOvernight index swaps are pricing in a 7% chance of a 25-bps rate cut through July 2019. Through September 2019, odds of a rate cut only increase to 18.9%.As such, we're expecting the BOC to signal that it's firmly in a neutral policy stance, with the continued implicit understanding that oil prices will help guide the next rate move. Read the full report: April Bank of Canada Meeting & USDCAD Price Forecast 04/25 THURSDAY | ~01:00 GMT | JPY BANK OF JAPAN RATE DECISIONThe Bank of Japan remains mired in its three-decade war of attrition with deflationary pressures, and 2019 has yet to prove successful in getting topline inflation readings back towards the BOJ's medium-term target of +2%.The March National Japanese CPI report came in at a paltry0.5%, the core inflation reading (ex-fresh food) came in at 0.8%, and the core-core inflation reading (ex-fresh food and ex-energy) came in at 0.4% (y/y). It's fairly predictable that the BOJ will remain one of the world's most dovish central banks for the foreseeable future. Read the full report: April Bank of Japan Meeting & EURJPY Price Forecast 04/25 THURSDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (MAR P)The US economy revolves around consumption trends, given that approximately 70% of GDP is accounted for by the spending habits of businesses and consumers. As such, the Durable Goods Orders reportmake for an important barometer of the US economy. The preliminary March print is expected to show a gain of 0.6% after the 1.6% drop in February. Read the full report: March US Durable Goods Orders & USDJPY Price Forecast 04/26 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (1Q A)The Bloomberg News survey is calling for US GDP to come in at 2.2% annualized. Depending upon where you look, estimates vary. The New York Nowcast estimate for Q1'19 US GDP is only at 1.4%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is pointing at 2.8% growth. Regardless, it does appear that any near-term concerns about the US economy dippinginto a recession were overblown. Read the full report: Q1'19 US GDP & EURUSD Price Forecast FX TRADING RESOURCESWhether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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| ACB Stock: Why Aurora Cannabis Is Issuing So Much Stock and Debt Posted: 19 Apr 2019 01:20 PM PDT Hits: 4 Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) is having a busy year raising its cash on hand. It filed a $750 million mixed shelf offering at the start of the month. In mid-January, it filed a $250 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2024. What is the company doing with all this money? And if markets continued to accumulate shares throughout the year, will the stock reward loyal holders?
Higher Debt and Share DilutionThe convertible notes issuance and mixed shelf offering will no doubt give Aurora plenty of cash to grow the business. But the cost to existing shareholders is more debt and share dilution. Now, this could still pay off for Aurora and its shareholders if the company puts the cash to good use. Also, its competitors either raised cash on the stock market or sold part of the company in return for a cash infusion. For example, Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) raised $435 million in October, while Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) got an investment from Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ). Executive Chairman Michael Singer said:
Dilution Could Pay Off for ACB StockAurora is not diluting investors if the company signs deals that add value to the business. So far, Aurora bought companies but paid fair value for them. Last year in May 2018, it bought MedReleaf for CAD$3.2 billion in an all-share transaction. Or it expanded its facilities through higher capital expenses. More recently, on Apr. 10, Aurora expanded the size of its marijuana production facility in Medicine Hat, Alberta, by 33%. The acquisitions and production facility investments increase the company's scale. This, in turn, increases Aurora's growth potential. So as markets willingly bid cannabis stock higher, the high valuation in ACB stock works in the company's favor. It may use its own stock to scale up its business. This will allow it to catch up to Canopy. However, it needs to keep showing results. Previously, Tilray enjoyed a higher valuation but weak quarterly results posted in March sent the stock on a downtrend. TLRY stock is down 30% in the last month. Cannabis companies are racing to beef up their size, scale and growth rates. Only a few of them will reach a big enough scale to become global leaders in the industry. So, that small debt offering could allow Aurora to leverage its balance sheet to go after growth. A word of warning: short-term risks are high for investors here. Aurora and other cannabis companies are not making any profits yet, and revenue growth trails mounting costs, so always proceed with caution. Opportunities for Aurora CannabisAurora leads in medical market share in Europe and Latin America. It is active in 5 continents and 24 countries. On top of the 15 strategic acquisitions made since Aug. 2016, it completed or is undergoing 40 clinical studies. The studies involve over 71,000 medical patients. Production capacity is currently 100,000 kg per year (as at the end of Q2/2019). By early 2019, it forecasts production of 150,000 kg/year and then over 500,000 kg/year by mid-2020. The cash raised could accelerate Aurora's lead in the Canadian market. Quarterly revenue is growing nearly exponentially, while competitors trail by a wide margin. As long as registered medical patients grow and production increases, expect the pace of revenue growth to continue. Aurora's addressable market may expand as it targets the Canadian medical, global medical, Canadian adult-use, and global adult-use markets. So far, margins are stable for the Canadian markets and in the case of adult use, strengthened through premium and innovative products. Globally, Aurora needs to leverage its early mover advantage, spend on R&D to develop high margin products. Your TakeawayAurora has tremendous global market growth potential, but it will not happen overnight. Near-term, the company now has the cash resources to invest strategically. Its value chain will benefit from higher cultivation and the opening of more distribution outlets. Although shares are holding up now, expect volatility increasing after the company reports quarterly results on May 13. As of this writing, Chris Lau did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all. Can you get gilded from fx trading? The serve is if you go from canadian forex, and unchaste forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is locomote in forex 1 buck canadian, netdania forex, work chockablock advantage of the forex system indicators, and appraisal the programme fx strategy. We testament succeed win all.
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| Q1’19 US GDP & EURUSD Price Forecast Posted: 19 Apr 2019 01:18 PM PDT Hits: 5 Talking Points: – The initial Q1'19 US GDP report is due on Friday, April 26 at 12:30 GMT. – Q1'19 US GDP expectations come in between 1.4% and 2.8%, but the trend is clear: the US government shutdown impact was limited, and the Fed isn't likely to cut rates anytime soon. – Retail traders are fading US Dollar gains, and the outlook for EURUSD has turned bearish. Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below. 04/26 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (1Q A)For much of the first quarter, there was great concern that the US government shutdown between December 23 and January 25 would have a significant negative impact on Q1'19 US GDP. And while the Congressional Budget Office estimated that a net $3 billion in wages would be lost, ultimately, it appears that the underlying strength of the US economy will have prevailed past the government's self-inflicted wounds. The Bloomberg News survey is calling for US GDP to come in at 2.2% annualized. Depending upon where you look, estimates vary. The New York Nowcast estimate for Q1'19 US GDP is only at 1.4%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is pointing at 2.8% growth. Regardless, it does appear that any near-term concerns about the US economy dipping into a recession were overblown.
As such, rate expectations have evolved in a manner to suggest that market participants no longer feel the Federal Reserve will embark on a dovish policy course in the imminent future. In fact, at the end of March, Fed funds futures were pricing in greater than a 50% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by July 2019; now, markets are favoring the Federal Reserve to stay on hold for the rest of 2019. Such a dramatic shift in expectations in just the span of a few weeks has proven helpful to the US Dollar as it tries to work off a six-month long consolidation (via the DXY Index), mirroring the multi-month consolidation seen in EURUSD. Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold EURUSD Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (January 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)
EURUSD rates weakened meaningfully by the end of the week, with the uptrend from the April 2 low busted by the breakdown on April 18. Momentum has started to shift more to the downside, now that EURUSD price is below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope. Similarly, daily Slow Stochastics have started to swing lower, while daily MACD has narrowed and nearly flipped to the downside. Given rising European growth concerns, a strong Q1'19 US GDP report could reinvigorate US Dollar bulls and help breakout of the multi-month ranges trapping price action. After all, the last six-months of trading in EURUSD has been the tightest six-month range seen since the inception of the Euro on January 1, 1999. IG Client Sentiment Index: EURUSD (April 19, 2019) (Chart 2)
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 60.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.52 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 10.8% higher than yesterday and 6.2% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 22.7% lower than yesterday and 14.1% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias. FX TRADING RESOURCESWhether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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| Posted: 19 Apr 2019 01:13 PM PDT Hits: 4
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| Market Cycles | Phases, Stages, and Common Characteristics Posted: 19 Apr 2019 12:48 PM PDT Hits: 3 Market Cycles: What You Need to KnowA market cycle is the process in which bull markets mature from beginning to end and then reverse into a bear market where excesses from the bull market are corrected. These cycles have been unfolding in comparable fashion since market speculation began. While no two market cycles have ever looked identical or had the exact same underlying drivers, they generally exhibited similar characteristics during each portion of the cycle primarily due to human nature and market psychology. A majority run their course and fall in the 'normal' bull & bear market cycle category while some have morphed into full-blown bubbles or manias which resulted in crashes. The difference between the two is the magnitude at which the underlying asset price climbs and the pitch at which investor sentiment rises. In any event, the following will help provide a guide for those who want to learn about the differing phases of a market cycle to help better navigate them. A market cycle has five main phases: Discovery, Momentum, Blow-off, Transition, and Deflation. A full market cycle may last only a few years or a couple of decades, depending on whether it is a cyclical (short-term) or secular (long-term) trend. Typically, shorter, cyclical trends also develop within the context of the longer, secular trends. Bull Market
Discovery PhaseThis phase marks the beginning of an emerging bull market trend and goesunnoticed by the majority of market participants. It's during this period when the last bear market officially ends and the new bull market begins, however; this doesn't become apparent until later in the cycle. Stages & Characteristics:
Momentum PhaseIn this phase the trend draws in an increasingly larger market participation base as awareness spreads. Growing participation and excitement builds, accelerating the trend and creating strong momentum. Stages & Characteristics:
Blow-off PhaseThis is the most violent phase of the bull market as it speeds ahead with maximum participation with the least informed (every day investors) joining in. Market participants' behavior becomes increasingly irrational, and in the case of bubbles/manias it becomes highly irrational. Eventually the trend becomes unsustainable and typically in an abrupt fashion. Stages & Characteristics:
Bear Market
Transition phaseThis is where a major turning point takes shape in market psychology, as the cycle shifts from bullish to neutral to bearish. There is still optimism that the market will continue to trader higher, but enough skepticism at this juncture to prevent it from doing such. In short, it's a push-pull process between buyers and sellers. Stages & Characteristics:
Deflation phaseThis is really nothing more than the market moving into reverse, or a bear market, and typically unfolds quickly, purging excesses built up during the bull market. Stages & Characteristics:
*Durations can vary greatly, only rough estimates. To Conclude, further reading…Market cycles have been going on forever and will continue to play out in a similar manner long into the future. To see how these cycles played out during some of the most extreme times in market history, check out "A Brief History of Major Financial Bubbles, Crises, and Flash-crashes". Having a sound understanding of the various phases which make up a market cycle can provide a blueprint for navigating future cycles. To further help you, we have beginner and advanced tutorials related to market cycles (Elliot Wave Principle) and quarterly trading forecasts; these can be found on the DailyFX Trading Guides page. Can you get prosperous from fx trading? The serve is if you go from river forex, and promiscuous forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is farm in forex 1 symbol canadian, netdania forex, buy increase vantage of the forex scheme indicators, and account the mean fx strategy. We present follow win all.
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| Bitcoin is about to drop – Analysis for April 19,2019 Posted: 19 Apr 2019 12:41 PM PDT Hits: 11 India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has unveiled its framework for a fintech regulatory sandbox. While blockchain and smart contracts are welcomed, the bank stated that cryptocurrency and related services “may not be accepted for testing.”. Price action still confirms indecision. Technical picture:
According to the H4 time-frame nothing changed since our yesterday’s analysis. We found that there is rounding top formation in creation, which is sign that BTC is under the distribution process. Probably some bigger traders are looking to sell larger amount so the distribution is underway. Support at the price of $4.900 is very important for swing traders since the breakout of this level may confirm downward movement. Key resistance is seen at the price of $5.445. Keep in mind that period of low volatility is expected on Friday and Monday due to holidays.
On the Futures market we found that after the strong push higher in the background and climatic action, there is the decreasing in the volume on the upside, which is sign that there is no big interest on the upside so selling may be a good option going further. Pay attention on the supports at $4.646 and $4.130, since these levels may be a very good levels to scale out our potential sell positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.
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| Why the Valuation of Procter & Gamble Stock Looks High Posted: 19 Apr 2019 12:38 PM PDT Hits: 4 Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) will announce its earnings next Tuesday before the opening bell. Despite the venerable personal-care products maker's reputation as a defensive dividend payer, PG stock has rallied massively over the last year.  Unfortunately, the rally may have left new investors with less incentive to buy PG stock. With the multiples of PG stock having risen to multi-year highs and its profit growth remaining moderate at best, investors should probably think twice about buying Procter and Gamble at these levels. Expect Slight Earnings, Revenue IncreasesFor PG's fiscal third quarter, analysts' consensus earnings per share estimate is $1.03. That's 3% higher than Q3 of 2018 when the company earned $1 per share of PG stock. Analysts on average predict revenues of $16.32 billion, a slight gain from the $16.28 billion the company generated during last year's Q3. On the surface, PG appears to be performing well. Trading near its all-time highs, PG stock is 50% above its levels of one year ago. That seems unusual for a stock that traders tend to buy for its dividend. After the company raised the dividend of PG stock this year, the payout has risen for 63 straight years, the fourth-longest streak on Wall Street. PG has paid a dividend every year since 1890. Currently at $2.87 per share, the payout yields 2.75%. Will Investors Continue to Buy PG Stock After the Surge?The impressive rally of PG stock has made it less appealing. The dividend yield of PG stock was about 3.5% this time last year, versus 2.75% now. Moreover, PG's price-earnings (PE) ratio has risen to 25.74. In fairness, Procter & Gamble's peers such as Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL), Kimberly Clark (NYSE:KMB), and Clorox (NYSE:CLX) trade at comparable or higher multiples. Still, the current PE ratio of PG is above its average PE over the last five years of 23.5. It's also well above the mid-teen multiples Procter & Gamble was awarded in the early part of the decade. Also, Wall Street expects PG to report solid, but unimpressive, profit increases. On average, analysts forecast 5.2% profit growth for this fiscal year and 7% next year. Those increases appear too low to justify the current PE ratio of PG stock. Furthermore, even after spinning off numerous brands in the middle part of the decade, PG stock remains vulnerable. For all of its accolades, the competitive moat of Procter and Gamble begins and ends with brand recognition and store-shelf space. Consumers know and love PG's brands such as Tide laundry detergent and Bounty paper towels. However, thanks to e-commerce, consumers can more easily find comparable products at lower prices. I do not think the increased competition will wipe out PG stock. I also do not believe that the rising dividend of PG stock will be threatened. Still, the company may have difficulty growing its revenue, making PG's current valuation difficult to justify. Going into earnings, few investors have an incentive to buy Procter and Gamble at these levels. Final Thoughts on PG StockGiven the recent increases in its price, PG stock will probably struggle to move higher in the near-term. As a result, I see no reason to buy PG 's shares ahead of its earnings. Procter and Gamble enjoyed an unexpected but impressive run over the last year. However, consumer defensive stocks better known for paying dividends rarely have such rallies. Despite increasing competition and analysts' belief that the company's revenue growth was anemic last quarter, I think the stock's dividend will continue to rise. However, other stocks feature annual dividend hikes and lower valuations. For now, income-oriented investors will probably find higher overall returns elsewhere. As of this writing, Will Healy did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned stocks. You can follow Will on Twitter at @HealyWriting.
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| March US Durable Goods Orders & USDJPY Price Forecast Posted: 19 Apr 2019 12:37 PM PDT Hits: 4 Talking Points: – The preliminary March US Durable Goods Orders report is due on Thursday, April 24 at 12:30 GMT. – Q1'19 US GDP expectations have rebounded considerably after reaching as low as 0.2% in the early-March; the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is up to 2.8%. – Retail traders have started to fade US Dollar gains, although the outlook for USDJPY is mixed. Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below. 04/25 THURSDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD Durable Goods Orders (MAR P)The US economy revolves around consumption trends, given that approximately 70% of GDP is accounted for by the spending habits of businesses and consumers. As such, the Durable Goods Orders reportmake for an important barometer of the US economy. Durable goods are items with lifespans of three-years or longer – from refrigerators and washing machines to cars and airplanes. These items typically require greater capital investment or financing to secure, meaning that traders can use the report as a proxy for business' and consumers' financial confidence and health. The preliminary March print is expected to show a gain of 0.6% after the 1.6% drop in February.
The Durable Goods Orders reportcould help solidify the rebound in US growth expectations seen since early-March. Based on the information received thus far about Q1'19, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is looking for growth at 2.8% after hitting a low of 0.2% in the second week of March. The next update to the Q1'19 forecast will be released after Tuesday's US economic data. Pairs to Watch: DXY Index, EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold USDJPY Technical Forecast: Daily Price Chart (January 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)
Price action in USDJPY has been constructive since breaking the downtrend from the March swing highs. Likewise, USDJPY prices were able to clear out the March 20 bearish outside engulfing bar high at 111.69, suggesting that pressure is building for a more substantive topside move. A near-term resistance band comes into play between 112.14, the March high, and 112.30, the swing lows from November and December 2018. IG Client Sentiment Index: USDJPY (April 19, 2019) (Chart 2)
USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 34.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.92 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Mar 31 when USDJPY traded near 110.83; price has moved 1.0% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.8% lower than yesterday and 11.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.7% lower than yesterday and 25.8% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias. FX TRADING RESOURCESWhether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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| CRON Stock: Cronos Stock Shrugs Off Negative Analyst Report Posted: 19 Apr 2019 12:03 PM PDT Hits: 5 April may bring spring showers, but it still feels like winter for marijuana stock investors. This month has rained almost entirely bad news down on the cannabis sector, and investors haven't spared Cronos Group (NASDAQ:CRON) from the selling deluge.  Source: Shutterstock Aphria's (NASDAQ:APHA) dour earnings report further damaged the mood, casting a wide shadow over other industry players. Companies like Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) and Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) saw their share prices wilt as people began to adjust their outlook for this earnings season downward. And there was the latest short seller target as well, with Village Farms (NASDAQ:VFF) losing as much as 15% of its value following a negative report from Citron. On Wednesday, all signs pointed to even more trouble for CRON stock in particular. That's because BofA/Merrill Lynch launched coverage of several leading marijuana stocks. It gave favorable coverage to two, while slapping CRON stock with an underperform rating. Normally, you'd expect CRON stock to slump on the news. Instead, shares dipped a bit and then rallied, actually closing the day in the green. It could be a positive sign for the company going forward that it could rebound following bad news. Worried About Valuation for CRON StockBofA's report was hardly all that negative on Cronos as a company. They like its prospects, but the share price is a hang-up. They wrote: "We initiate coverage of Cronos, a Canada based cannabis company, with an Underperform rating and […] $13 price objective". They arrived at this price target in large part on an enterprise value to sales metric. They plugged in their 2020 estimate for sales and slapped a 23x multiple on said figure, which worked out to a $13 price target. As I said, BofA isn't down on the company. Their analysts added that, "Cronos is a compelling fundamental value in our view, but we are unable to get comfortable with the valuation." That's fair. The marijuana stocks are all highly valued and require some faith in the overall cannabis story to get behind. On the other hand, it's not like BofA views the whole sector as overvalued. At the same time that it panned Cronos on valuation, it gave a buy rating to Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) suggesting that it will be one of the "few truly global" companies in pot. Interestingly, even using just a 17x EV/sales multiple, they got to an $11 price target for ACB stock. BofA was even more optimistic for Canopy Growth, suggesting it is worth 24x EV/sales, which gets to a price objective of $52. So, for as fundamentally bullish as BofA may be on Cronos, they like some of its competition a whole lot more. Need A Better Earnings ReportCRON stock owners come into this earnings season with an extra dose of trepidation. That's because, arguably, Cronos delivered the single worst earnings report of all the marijuana majors during the last quarterly earnings report cycle. Given that APHA stock is now down 25% in recent days following its clunker of an earnings release, the market is saying companies need to shape up or their share prices will get leveled. Turning back to Cronos, its last report showed some flaws in the business model. Remember that Citron Research had previously blasted Cronos for having tiny distribution deals compared to rivals. Cronos' last earnings showed minimal recreational marijuana revenues. While overall revenues grew sharply, it appears that Cronos is still reliant on medicinal for the time being. Anyone who was thinking Cronos would see business results soar on Canada's legalization has been disappointed — at least for the time being. Cronos also appears to be suffering from the same margin compression that has hit its rivals. Over the past three quarters, its gross margin has fallen from 63% to 55% and now just 45% during the most recent one. As the flood of marijuana supply comes online, they will have to demonstrate that they can keep their profit margins up. Otherwise, it could be rough days ahead for CRON stock. CRON Stock: Don't Forget About AltriaThat said, the bears risk claiming victory too early here. Sure, CRON stock has slumped from a high of $25 to $16 now. The marijuana sector as a whole is in a bit of a slump. But we're arguably still in the early innings of the marijuana stocks story playing out. Some folks have said that Canada's legalization was the top for the sector, and that it's all downhill from here. But I think we'll see a different path. Yes, a lot of marijuana companies are going to go out of business. There are way too many companies fighting over what is still a small and new market at the moment. There will be consolidation. Businesses will fail. This is great news for the sector leaders, however. As there are more mergers and acquisitions, the leaders will become more and more powerful. Cronos, along with Canopy, are set to be those industry leaders. By virtue of having the biggest backers and access to cheap and plentiful capital, Canopy and Cronos have the best chance of taking leadership in the marijuana industry. Sure, Cronos has a lot to fix based on its recent earnings reports. But with Altria's (NYSE:MO) help, there's no reason to count out CRON stock yet. At the time of this writing, Ian Bezek owned MO stock. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek. Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all. Can you get gilded from fx trading? 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