Forex News 24

Forex News 24


AK Steel Earnings: AKS Stock Surges as Q1 Earnings, Sales Increase AK Steel Earnings: AKS Stock Surges as Q1 Earnings, Sales Increase

Posted: 29 Apr 2019 02:21 PM PDT

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AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) reported its latest quarterly results after hours today, amassing adjusted earnings that soared by more than doubling when compared to the year-ago quarter, while the company's revenue also posted gains, aiding AKS stock, which increased late on Monday.

AK Steel Earnings

The Ohio-based steelmaking business said that for its first quarter of 2019, it amassed a net loss of $4.5 million, or a penny per share, well below its profit of $28.7 million, or 9 cents per share, from the same period in its fiscal 2018. On an adjusted basis, the company's profit soared by about 156% to 23 cents per share.

AK Steel added that its net sales for the period arrived at $1.7 billion, a 2% gain year-over-year. This surge was partially attributed to an increase in selling prices for most products, as well as increased shipments to the distributors and converters market.

However, this figure was partially offset by lower shipments to the automotive industry. AK Steel saw flat-rolled steel shipments slide 3% when compared to the year-ago quarter, while the selling price of a flat-rolled steel ton was up 6% year-over-year.

For its fiscal 2019, the business reduced its net income forecast to now be between $76 million to $96 million–this guidance was previously in the range of $160 million to $180 million. The company now sees earnings at 24 cents to 30 cents per share, below the previous outlook of 51 cents to 57 cents per share.

The adjusted EBITDA estimate was slashed as well.

AKS stock was up about 2.9% during regular trading hours, then surged 4.5% after the bell off the heels of a strong quarterly earnings performance.

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ATVI Earnings Won’t Likely Impress, But Expect Improvements Over Time

Posted: 29 Apr 2019 01:46 PM PDT

Hits: 9


Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) stock might experience more volatility in its share price after it reports earnings. ATVI reports first-quarter results on May 2 after the market closes. With monthly video came sales numbers all over the place,  investors will have a tough time forecasting Activision's results.

Activision stock

Source: Shutterstock

In March, NPD reported an 11% drop in total video game sales — for all companies. Video game hardware sales fell 15% while PC and video game software sales fell 11%. For 2019, video game sales fell 2% to $3.152 billion. These figures suggest that Activision will not report a good quarter. And ATVI stock's trading action shows it.

Shareholders are still undecided with the company's prospects for the rest of the year. ATVI stock's trailing P/E is around 20, which is still high even after the stock lost over 40% of its value from 52-week highs.

Not Enough Hit Games

In March, Activision only had two game titles on the top sellers list. Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice came in second place while Call of Duty: Black Ops IV came in weak on the 10th place slot. Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: EA) also had two titles on the list. Take 2 Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) had Red Dead Redemption II, NBA 2K19, and Grand Theft Auto V.

CoD is usually a big money maker for Activision, so the game's placement is a disappointment. Conversely, with Sekiro on the number two slot, Activision still has a chance to beat estimates in the upcoming earnings report.

What to Look for In ATVI Earnings

Although it is unlikely, Activision management could raise its outlook for the year if it expects CoD sales to improve. Continued strong momentum in sales of Sekiro would also give 2019's result a lift.

But Activision's overall revenue momentum hinges on two things: unit sales and in-game up-selling. Gamers are becoming increasingly wary of paying the high upfront retail price for game titles like CoD. And when the refresh is hardly different from past releases, gamers get bored. Compounding these problems is the unwillingness to spend on in-game items. This could pose a problem at BlizzCon. Game titles like Warcraft, StarCraft, Diablo, Hearthstone, Heroes of the Storm and Overwatch might not make as much in in-game sales as management wants.

Activision's 755 layoffs — or 8% of staff 00 in the fourth quarter will lead to lower costs and better profit margins. The immediate savings could have long-term negative implications, however. Growing competition from freemium games could still pose a threat to Activision's business model. If game development slows over time from the loss of staff, the gaming quality could also worsen, accelerating a slowdown in game sales over the long-term.

ATVI Valuation

Activision is debt-free and increased profits over the last decade. The recent bumps are a setback for the company but could represent a buying opportunity for investors. CoD sales are modest in 2019 but were strong in 2018. To top it off, the Destiny sale skews this year's weaker numbers. But by shedding weak titles and investing in strong ones, the company may potentially report better results in due time.

Your Takeaway

For now, Wall Street analysts are still bullish on Activision's prospects. 23 analysts covering ATVI stock have a $52.63 price target, according to Tipranks. Conversely, investors could choose from any number of Discounted Cash Flow models to calculate a fair value on the stock. Per finbox.io, the stock could be fairly valued in the $30 – $50 range.

Activision is still a compelling investment idea. The upcoming quarterly results will allow investors to evaluate the benefits of recent cost-cuts. And the outlook could change for the better if game sales improve better than thought.

Disclosure: As of this writing, the author did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

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09. Gaming Laptops review|
10. WiFi Routers review|

FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: EZ GDP and CPI; Canada GDP; FOMC; US NFP

Posted: 29 Apr 2019 01:36 PM PDT

Hits: 14


Talking Points:

– Soft growth and inflation readings are likely to renew speculation that the European Central Bank will change its Staff Economic Projections at the June ECB meeting.

– There is a possibility that the FOMC comes out with a more hawkish tone than what was previously deployed.

– Markets are expecting the rebound in jobs growth to continue, with headline NFP coming in at 185K.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

04/29 TO 05/07 | JAPAN GOLDEN WEEK – JAPANESE MARKETS CLOSED

It's the end of April, which means it's time for Japan's "Golden Week." The Golden Week is typically a period at the end of April/beginning of May that encompasses several holidays during a short timeframe, and due to the inefficiencies of frequently opening/closing businesses, many factories shutdown and offices work on skeleton crews. In turn, Japanese financial markets are also closed.

Read the full report: Japan Golden Week & AUDJPY Price Forecast

04/30 TUESDAY | 09:00 GMT | EUR EUROZONE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (1Q A), 05/03 FRIDAY | 09:00 GMT | EUR EUROZONE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (APR A)

The first look at Q1'19 Eurozone GDP on Tuesday should see growth rates remain tepid at best, with the quarterly rate due in at 0.3% from 0.2% while the yearly rate is set to hold at 1.1%. Consistently weak growth figures should serve to underscore the European Central Bank's Governing Council's view that risks have moved "to the downside." Elsewhere, the preliminary April Eurozone Consumer Price Index is due on Friday at 1.6% from 1.4% (y/y), a sign that weakness in the Euro in recent weeks coupled with the ongoing rebound in oil prices may be helped stabilize the price outlook.

Read the full report: Q1'19 Eurozone GDP and CPI & EURJPY Price Forecast

04/30 TUESDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (FEB)

The February Canada GDP report doesn't appear like to will help traders or BOC policymakers find any clarity over the near-term economic environment. It appears that February represented the low point in growth conditions across the world: Eurozone PMIs declined in February; US GDP estimates were lowest in late-February and early-March.

Read the full report: February Canada GDP & USDCAD Price Forecast

05/01 WEDNESDAY | 18:00 GMT | USD FEDERAL RESERVE RATE DECISION

The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday for its May meeting, and both economic and market conditions couldn't be more different than when the FOMC last met. In March, concerns were running rampant that the US government shutdown was going to have a significant negative impact on Q1'19 US GDP, which at this point in time, we know was overblown: 3.2% annualized growth was reported last week.

Read the full report: May Fed Meeting & USDJPY Price Forecast

05/03 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (APR)

The US labor market remains a pillar of strength for the US economy, and all signs pointed to another solid jobs expansion in April. Following the print of 196K in March, Bloomberg News' consensus forecast is looking for 185K jobs to have been added in the fourth month of the year. As a result, forecasts point to the unemployment rate staying on hold at 3.8%, a multi-decade and cycle low.

Read the full report: April US Nonfarm Payrolls & EURUSD Price Forecast

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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73.4% of Traders Remain Net-Long

Posted: 29 Apr 2019 01:32 PM PDT

Hits: 8


TRADERS REMAIN NET-LONG SINCE MARCH 26

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 73.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.75 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Mar 26 when GBPUSD traded near 1.31286; price has moved 1.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 7.5% higher than yesterday and 5.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% higher from last week.

To gain more insight in how we use sentiment to supplement a strategy, join us for one of our weekly webinars on how to "Identify Trends with Sentiment":

Wednesday 12:30 GMT

Thursday 21:00 GMT

Tuesday 15:00 GMT

Wednesday 00:00 GMT

(click on one of the above times to enroll)

GBPUSD: RECENT SUGGESTS A BEARISH TRADING BIAS

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall.Though traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week, these changes are relatively small. As a result, the current sentiment suggests a bearish trading bias.

— Written by Nancy Pakbaz, CFA, DailyFX Research

Follow Nancy on Twitter @NancyPakbazFX

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Trader: Congrats! Reactivated for you

Posted: 29 Apr 2019 01:25 PM PDT

Hits: 6



You need to claim your trades today. This opportunity expires at midnight!

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Good afternoon, Trader,

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  • $2,865 profit on 4 contracts of Facebook, Inc. – a 154% GAIN
  • $1,235 profit on 4 contracts of J.P. Morgan Chase – a 115% GAIN
  • $1,600 profit on 4 contracts of Roku, Inc. – a 105% GAIN
  • $1,659 profit on 6 contracts of C.F. Industries Holdings – a 105% GAIN
  • $2,126 profit on 2 contracts of Boeing – a 113% GAIN
  • $1,787 profit on 6 contracts of Carnival – a 119% GAIN
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Chairman & CEO
Schaeffer’s Investment Research
service@sir-inc.com
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com
1-800-448-2080
1-513-589-3800 International

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Divider Bar

Dear Trader,

The weather may be getting warmer, but that doesn’t mean your portfolio needs a vacation.

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Are you ready to get in on the action, and make yourself part of our historic success?

Put the Power of Weeklies to Work for You!

Today’s volatile stock market can rise or fall hundreds (or even thousands) of points in just a single day.

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Many investors view these sharp ups and downs over periods of a week or two as disruptive to their portfolios.

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  • $2,846 profit on 2 contracts of FedEx – a 165% GAIN
  • $1,425 profit on 2 contracts of F5 Networks – a 116% GAIN
  • $2,865 profit on 4 contracts of Facebook, Inc. – a 154% GAIN
  • $1,235 profit on 4 contracts of J.P. Morgan Chase – a 115% GAIN
  • $1,600 profit on 4 contracts of Roku, Inc. – a 105% GAIN
  • $1,659 profit on 6 contracts of C.F. Industries Holdings – a 105% GAIN
  • $2,126 profit on 2 contracts of Boeing – a 113% GAIN
  • $1,787 profit on 6 contracts of Carnival – a 119% GAIN
  • $1,984 profit on 4 contracts of Continental Resources – a 150% GAIN

That’s $17,527 in profit from just 9 trades!

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Weekly options trade just like calls and puts that follow monthly expiration cycles, except they’re created on each Thursday and expire weekly – some as early as the following Friday.

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Don’t worry if you’ve never traded weekly options before. With Schaeffer’s Weekly Options Trader, it’s easy.

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My Weekly Options Trader subscribers receive an average of 6 trade recommendations every month, and now you can get in on this action for just $10.

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Isn’t it Time You Give Weekly Options a Try?

Before weekly options hit the big time in 2010, they accounted for less than 1% of all option trading volume. And you could trade them only on a few ETFs and individual stocks.

But TODAY, they’ve become the hottest, fastest-growing options available!

They now trade on seven indexes… 65 ETFs… and 342 individual stocks – making up a whopping 35% of all option volume on the CBOE.

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These “weekly wonders” are perfect for trading short-term spikes, dips, and adjustments foreseen by those with the right market approach and the right indicators.

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And much more research…

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But I must warn you…

My next hot “weekly wonder” trade may be released at any moment, so you must act quickly.

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Act Now!

Sincerely yours,

Bernie Schaeffer
Chairman & CEO
Schaeffer’s Investment Research
service@sir-inc.com
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com
1-800-448-2080
1-513-589-3800 International

P.S. This is your chance to get in on one of our hottest trading programs and reap the rewards for the next 30 days! This program gives you an average of six handpicked weekly option recommendations each month, and targets 100% or better gains! Don’t let this opportunity pass you by – you must let me know by tonight if you want in!

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5151 Pfeiffer Rd
Cincinnati, OH 45242

If you didn’t create an account using this email address, please ignore this email or unsubscribe.

To ensure delivery of this email to your inbox and to enable images to load in future mailings, please add enews@schaeffer.com to your e-mail address book or safe senders list.

Although there is significant profit potential associated with buying options, there is also the risk of losing one’s entire investment in any individual trade. In any option buying approach, it is expected that losing trades will be more numerous than winning trades. The goal is for the average gain to be significantly greater than the average loss so that the bottom line is profitable. Prior to purchase, ensure that you have a broker that allows the trading of options and that you are approved to trade options.

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2019-04-29 18:34:18



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Top 10 problems you may need in life:

01. Espresso Machines review|
02. Gaming Keyboards review|
03. Gaming Headsets review|
04. Virtual Reality Headsets review|
05. Cordless Drills review|
06. Electric Keyboards review|
07. Gaming Mouse review|
08. Gaming Monitors review|
09. Gaming Laptops review|
10. WiFi Routers review|

5 Top Stock Trades for Tuesday: GOOGL, BAC, ADBE, JNJ

Posted: 29 Apr 2019 01:07 PM PDT

Hits: 7


In another sleepy trading session, U.S. stock bumbled along through morning trading before drifting higher into the close. Last week was full of big earnings reports, but this week is also loaded, with Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and others all reporting. Here are the top stock trades we're watching going into Tuesday.

Top Stock Trades for Tuesday #1: Alphabet

top stock trades for GOOGL

On Monday after the close we'll hear from Alphabet. I like this company as much as the next investor, but it's hard to get overly bullish going into the report when it's up so much.

While lagging many of its FAANG peers, shares are still up almost 20% from the January lows. The stock is up 12 of the last 13 sessions and is up more than $100 per share in less than a month. With an RSI reading of 77, it doesn't help matters either.

That said, I'm not bearish on GOOGL as a company. We could get similar action to what we saw in Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) last week, which was a muted open and a 2.5% rally by day's end. GOOGL could certainly climb on good numbers, but I expect the rally to be modest, likely toward channel resistance.

On a pullback, I want to see $1,260 hold as support. If it can't, GOOGL can pullback to the 20-day moving average and/or channel support without breaking its uptrend.

Top Stock Trades for Tuesday #2: Bank of America

top stock trades for BACtop stock trades for BAC

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has been consolidating near $30, but finally made a move to $31 on Monday.

I love that this name is above long-term downtrend resistance and the action on Monday is promising. However, I can't blame anyone who wants to lighten up on their longs (I did), as BAC moves into a potential area of resistance.

$31 put a lid on BAC from July to September. If it pushes through, the next level of resistance is at $32-ish. I don't hate BAC after Monday's rally, as it could continue rallying this week. But keep in mind that there's an FOMC announcement on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.

Could BAC rally into the Fed event? It's possible, but expect some volatility either way.

Top Stock Trades for Tuesday #3: Adobe

top stock trades for ADBEtop stock trades for ADBE

Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) exploded higher on Monday, but pulled back off the session highs. Adobe looks tired right now and with an elevated reading on the RSI, a new long position does not favor the bulls looking for a solid risk/reward.

Instead, see how ADBE does on a pullback. I want to see how it handles the backside of prior channel resistance near $280. If it can't support the stock, look for a retest of a big prior resistance zone at $275.

Top Stock Trades for Tuesday #4: Johnson & Johnson

top stock trades for JNJtop stock trades for JNJ

I'm not sure which trade is more boring, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) or the one below, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA). In both scenarios though the stocks look attractive, despite the snail-like pace they're moving at.

Up until last Friday, $140 had kept a fairly tight lid on JNJ stock. On Friday, the stock closed north of this mark and on Monday, shares are bobbing near this mark.

As discouraging as it would be for JNJ to fall below $140 now, it's safe as long as it holds the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Should it maintain this level, look for a possible run to $143 and possible a gap fill up to $146.

Top Stock Trades for Tuesday #5: Alibaba

top stock trades for BABAtop stock trades for BABA

The setups look pretty similar, huh? Alibaba continues to put in a series of higher lows, with resistance near $188. A break over $188 and after clearing $190, Alibaba stock could fly to $200.

On a close below uptrend support and the 20-day, a decline to the 50-day is on the table. This is one we've had our eye on, and as often times is the case, keeping it simple works best.

Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell is long JNJ, BABA, GOOGL, AMZN and AAPL.

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Prices May Continue to Fall

Posted: 29 Apr 2019 01:06 PM PDT

Hits: 9


73.7% OF TRADERS ARE NET-LONG

Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 73.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.8 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.9% higher than yesterday and 8.8% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.6% higher than yesterday and 7.1% lower from last week.

To gain more insight in how we use sentiment to supplement a strategy, join us for one of our weekly webinars on how to "Identify Trends with Sentiment":

Wednesday 12:30 GMT

Thursday 21:00 GMT

Tuesday 15:00 GMT

Wednesday 00:00 GMT

(click on one of the above times to enroll)

GOLD: SENTIMENT SUGGESTS A BEARISH TRADING BIAS

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.

— Written by Nancy Pakbaz, CFA, DailyFX Research

Follow Nancy on Twitter @NancyPakbazFX

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2019-04-29 19:40:00

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Net-Short Positions Increased by 20.4% from Last Week

Posted: 29 Apr 2019 12:59 PM PDT

Hits: 8


TRADERS REMAINED NET-LONG SINCE APRIL 12

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 67.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.07 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 12 when EURUSD traded near 1.12763; price has moved 0.9% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% lower than yesterday and 14.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.2% higher than yesterday and 20.4% lower from last week.

To gain more insight in how we use sentiment to supplement a strategy, join us for one of our weekly webinars on how to “Identify Trends with Sentiment”:

Wednesday 12:30 GMT

Thursday 21:00 GMT

Tuesday 15:00 GMT

Wednesday 00:00 GMT

(click on one of the above times to enroll)

EURUSD SENTIMENT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MIXED TRADING BIAS

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Nancy Pakbaz, CFA, DailyFX Research

Follow Nancy on Twitter @NancyPakbazFX

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April 29, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Posted: 29 Apr 2019 12:54 PM PDT

Hits: 0


analytics5cc7231832ef0.jpg

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed few days ago.

Conservative traders were advised to wait for a bullish pullback towards the newly-established supply zone around 1.1235 for a valid SELL entry.

On the long-term, bearish persistence below 1.1235 enhances further bearish decline towards 1.1170 then 1.1115 if enough bearish momentum is expressed.

The current price levels are quite risky for having new sell orders.Moreover, a recent bullish head and shoulders pattern is being demonstrated on the H4 chart.

That’s why, conservative traders should be waiting for another bullish pullback towards 1.1230-1.1250 for a valid SELL entry.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
2019-04-29 16:19:20



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Why Zoom (ZM) Stock May Not Be Overvalued at These Levels

Posted: 29 Apr 2019 12:31 PM PDT

Hits: 6


Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM), which recently launched an IPO of its stock, seems like the perfect reflection of the broader battle over equity valuations. Investors who are skeptical of this stock market which has reached all-time highs will see ZM stock as the pinnacle of absurdity. On the other hand, those who see stocks in general and tech stocks in particular going higher will rave about the opportunity offered by Zoom stock.

Zoom Is A Great Company, But Post-IPO Pop Valuation Looks Full

Both sides can make a strong case.The valuation of ZM stock does look close to obscene. But the company's capabilities in videoconferencing – a technology that literally could change the world – suggest that it has a massive addressable market.

For some time, then, it seems likely that market sentiment will move Zoom stock. ZM stock will be the ultimate trade on the "risk-on" versus "risk-off" attitude that has defined market trading over the past few years.

Is Tech Overvalued?

There's no shortage of investors who see U.S. equities in general, and tech in particular, as overvalued. The same risks that led stocks to tumble in December still exist, yet equity markets have risen above their previous levels. Unprofitable or barely profitable software companies trade at massive valuations. For instance,  Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) trades at 20 times its revenue and 250 times next year's consensus earnings per share estimate. As impressive as that company's opportunity is, at some point valuations have to matter, as I wrote earlier this month.

The same can be said of other high-flyers like Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY), MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB), or Twilio (NYSE:TWLO). Their opportunities for growth are enormous. But that was true for Internet stocks , and it took even Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) years to reclaim its dot-com bubble peaks. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) didn't reclaim its highs for well over a decade. Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) dominates the networking space, and it's still below its 2000 highs.

And those are the winners. Many losers have long since gone bankrupt or lost huge chunks of their peak valuations.

ZM Stock Is the Most Expensive Name in the Market

What's perhaps amazing about ZM stock is that even in this market, it looks like the most expensive stock out there. Per its most recent S-1, there are some 269 million diluted shares of Zoom stock  outstanding. That suggests a market capitalization for ZM stock of nearly $18 billion. Yet Zoom generated just $330 million in revenue in its fiscal 2019 which ended on Jan 31. That's a price-sales multiple of 55.

That's an enormous price-sales multiple. MDB, which has also sparked valuation concerns, has a price-sales ratio of under 30. Zoom's sales are growing quickly, as they more than doubled in FY19. But assume they rise another 100% in FY20. ZM stock would still trades at something like 27 times its sales. And it's not as if other high-flyers aren't growing rapidly.

To many investors, 55 times revenue on its face is simply absurd. It's a multiple that makes Zoom stock untouchable. Zoom is modestly profitable. But the amount of growth priced in at its current level almost by definition suggests that investors are expecting perfection.

And, at the least, it seems like a multiple that cannot be supported if the bull market ends. If investors start fleeing risk – as they did at the end of last year – Zoom stock would seemingly be one of the first to plunge.

Is There a Case for ZM Stock?

All that said, as prohibitive as the valuation of Zoom stock appears to be, investors might not want to dismiss ZM stock so quickly. An $18 billion valuation might seem ridiculous against $330 million in sales. But ZM has a real opportunity.

Zoom's videoconferencing platform, and the pending introduction of its Zoom Phone, create an enormous addressable market. The S-1 estimates that market at $43.1 billion in 2022. Software-as-a service communications providers RingCentral (NYSE:RNG) and 8×8 (NYSE:EGHT) combined are worth over $10 billion alone.

Both companies trade at much lower valuations: 8×8, in fact, has modestly higher revenue than ZM and a valuation of just $2.25 billion. But if Zoom can transform videoconferencing and take share in the UCaaS (unified communications as a service) market, it will have the opportunity to generate billions of dollars of revenue annually.

Meanwhile, its profit margins should be enormous if that scenario materializes. Its subscription revenue should be sticky. If Zoom can take 20% of its market, which would equate to- some $8 billion of revenue and generate 30% EBITDA margins, it could easily be worth $50 billion. That process would likely takes a decade, at least,  but a stock that triples over ten years provides a solid, annualized return of 12%.

Skeptics might say that  ZM would need to grow at an enormous  annualized rate of 38% for that scenario to unfold. Many of the conditions that would have to happen for Zoom stock to reach that valuation may not occur. In that context, 12% returns for a bet on a bullish scenario might not seem worth it.

Watch the Market

But the point right now is that the numbers can work. And for now, that's all that really matters. SHOP stock looked overvalued to many at half its current price. Pretty much any trader who has tried to short SaaS stocks on valuation in the last few years has been run over. In contrast, those who have paid attention to the companies' opportunities, and not to their multiples, have been handsomely rewarded.

But  market skeptics say valuations can't just keep moving higher forever. And ZM stock, trading at a multiple double that of "expensive" stocks just days after its IPO, will be the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

Perhaps. But what the market has shown in 2019, and indeed for the last few years, is that a stock with the potential to transform and dominate its industry is going to find buyers. Even in the ugly market of Q4, SaaS stocks actually did well: WDAY, MDB, and TWLO all rose in that quarter. At some point, valuations may just get too high. Until then, however, there's no reason Zoom stock can't move even higher.

As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned.

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08. Gaming Monitors review|
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10. WiFi Routers review|

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