Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- S&P 500 Shapes Head-and-Shoulders Reversal, Pound Ends Tumble on May Resignation
- Bullish Wave 3 Could Carry to 1.35
- XAU Defends Yearly Lows– Breakout Levels Defined
- Boris as UK Prime Minister Might be Good for Sterling
- US Dollar Price Outlook in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD
- GBPUSD Choppy, Theresa May Resigns, What Next?
S&P 500 Shapes Head-and-Shoulders Reversal, Pound Ends Tumble on May Resignation Posted: 24 May 2019 11:33 PM PDT Hits: 13 Risk Trends Talking Points:
See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar. After a Full-Tilt Risk Reversal is Averted, Trade Wars Remains the Most Pressing Market ThreatThe markets were perched on a technical cliff through the closing session of this past week and there were some heavy fundamental winds threatening to push us over the edge. Ultimately, however, a crisis was averted and the day of reckoning was pushed out into the future. Taking stock of our troubled positioning on the charts, the S&P 500 and Dow reflected the most overt threat to the speculative landscape. Both indices forged a strong bearish wedge break on Thursday which would in turn drive bears to the extremes of much larger head-and-shoulders support levels (‘necklines’). Below 2,800 for the S&P 500 or 25,250 on the Dow, we would have breaks on fairly overt reversal patterns. While technicals alone often fall short of charging self-sustaining momentum, it is not like we are lacking for fundamental charge to convert a spark into a full-fledged fire. Further, we have seen a general willingness across the financial system to deflate markets where value has been absent. As we wait to see whether the US indices return to their past three month range or break into a true reversal of 2019’s bullish wave, I will be keeping close track of the disparity rising out of risk assets with a traditional growth dependency. The tumble in aggregate government bond yields is my relative preferred mirror to the S&P 500 – and it is still dropping. Chart of S&P 500 and Aggregate 10-Year Yield from Largest Gov't Bonds (Daily) As we track the threats circling the markets, there is a tendency to prioritize the most familiar risk. However, we shouldn’t lose sight of those issues that simply lack an unforeseen catalyst to sweep the markets lower. The health of the global economy and the prospect of an eventual recession remains a smoldering concern that simply awaits reignition. The May PMIs for Asia, European and the US this past week made clear we are still facing a bearish trajectory. While there are a few ancillary GDP readings due in the week ahead, this matter would more likely find its charge from an unforeseen event. Monetary policy is much the same. Through the end of the week, research from the Fed Board found that tightening by the group could risk a banking crisis for a country that has direct exposure to the US (rather than broad diversification) like much of the Emerging Markets. The true threat in my estimation is the scenario where a failed economic trajectory puts the central banks as last resorts to stave off crisis and their lack of policy tools will be made bare. Then there are political risks. The rise of nationalism isn’t just a social shift. A drive to secure faster domestic growth at the expense of trade is a way to ensure stunted global growth. Then of course there is the risk the US and Iran tipping off an active economic or even military engagement. Chart of Crude Oil and the CBOE's Oil Volatility Index in Red (Daily) When the comparison is made from abstract theme to abstract theme, the most likely fracture in any future market calm is likely to follow trade war developments. Officially, we are not expecting the next move that materially escalates the economic burden until at least a few weeks in the future – the timeline offered by the Trump administration to their Chinese counterparts to compromise or find the steep tariff placed on $200 billion in the country’s exports to the US expand to the balance of its goods – another $300 to 325 billion depending on the estimates you rely on. Much of the deterioration in relationships over the past week has been in moves to threaten the other country’s access or supply chain – the US banning Huawei and President Xi making a not-so-subtle threat to the rare-earth materials market are designed to be provocative. In the meantime, data keeps stacking up that the trade wars are undermining growth and there is much more of that ahead. Chart of USDCNH (Daily) The British Pound Posted its First Gain in 15 Trading Days After the PM’s ResignationFor top mover this past week, it was clear that the British Pound easily earned the status. The worst performing major currency by a mile, the Sterling managed to finally earn a bounce through Friday’s session. That was a long overdue bounce from an absolutely battered major. In fact, the late-in-the-week jump for the single currency represented the first time in 15 trading days that the EURGBP slipped – ending a record-breaking run. What is ironic is that this corrective effort occurred on the day that Prime Minister Theresa May announced her resignation. She will officially relinquish her position on June 7th. And, while there are certainly plenty of people that are relieved by the political turnover, this certainly wouldn’t count as a market improvement. This is added uncertainty and markets detest the unknown. Chart of EURGBP with 200-day Moving Average and Consecutive Candle Count (Daily) As we assess the Sterling’s intent in the week ahead, it is necessary to evaluate its unusual response this past week the May update. There is no small element of ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’ to this situation. The pressure for the PM to resign had built through the week and seemed to hit a fever pitch after she sought the opposition party’s support for her frequently-rejected withdrawal bill in exchange for a second referendum vote. The latter sessions of tumble from the Pound were no doubt a reflection of the escalating probability of her imminent departure. With a deadline to her leaving, Parliament in recess this week and the new leader likely to take some time to get up to speed; it is reasonable to expect the market could curb its climb and perhaps resort to range swings. That said, this path makes the troubling ‘no deal’ Brexit outcome more likely as the new leader of the Conservative Party is likely to be more aggressive, not less. Keep an eye on the Sterling and Brexit headlines. There is Volatility Risk for the Dollar and Loonie but Beware the EuroAmong the other currencies with fundamentally-derived market moving potential, the Dollar is perhaps the least overt in its intent. While there are some noteworthy data points – like consumer confidence and trade – the productive movement has resulted from systemic issues. Recognition of the United States’ position at the center of the trade war web is starting to sink in, but we are not yet to the point it is imminently recognizable and thereby overtly sensitive. In the absence of a deeper fundamental swell, the Greenback will likely resort to its roll as a primary counterpart to its liquid and active peers. The Canadian Dollar is more interesting for its targeted event risk. While the USCMA progress is of course important, the Bank of Canada (BOC) rate decision on tap is more reliable. The group has wavered in its policy commitment, but we haven’t see the hard turn to shilling rate cuts that we’ve seen from the RBNZ. If that is in the cards for the near future, the Loonie’s resilience will crumble. Chart of USDCAD (Daily) There is further considerable potential from the Australian Dollar and Chinese Yuan owing to trade wars as well as the Japanese Yen as wayward carry interest conforms to risk trends. However, the most remarkable potential in the FX market in my mind rests with the Euro. The world’s second most liquid currency has been carving out a trading range (on a trade-weighted basis) that is comparable only to the lulls of activity back to Summer of 2014. This is not comfort but rather anticipation. We are due results from the EU Parliamentary elections by Sunday evening. If this vote sees a significant rise in nationalist interests across Europe, it could raise the concerns over faltering collective growth that we have seen elsewhere. The more concentrated risk though would rest with the Euro itself. Nationalist interests general align or include a perspective that is anti-Euro. Even if there is no immediate pursuit of undermining the shared currency, the threat that it is a possibility under strain – say during a market wash where coordination is critical – trust in second most liquid currency will plunge. It would not be a stretch to believe a drop below parity (1.0000) for EURUSD could soon follow such an occasion. We discuss all of this and more in this weekend Trading Video. Chart of Equally Weighted Euro Index and 20-day ATR (Daily) If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-05-26 06:04:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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Bullish Wave 3 Could Carry to 1.35 Posted: 24 May 2019 12:28 PM PDT Hits: 12 GBP/USD Elliott Wave Talking Points:
The technical patterns on GBP/USD have been elusive for the past several months. A small bread crumb of clarity was created as we discovered the potential Elliott wave diagonal pattern forming from the January 2019 low into the March 2019 high. These diagonals either begin a new larger wave or terminate the larger degree trend. Since this diagonal began at the lowest levels GBPUSD has seen in two years, the higher probability scenario is this pattern is a leading diagonal. Therefore, we await the finishing touches of a partial retracement corrective move. The current Elliott Wave for GBPUSDEarlier this week, we tweeted about the confluence of tight wave relationships taking place in the 1.26 handle. The a-b-c corrective pattern has slightly overshot the extreme of the price channel. Additionally, wave 'c' is equal to wave 'a' near 1.2659…this is a common wave relationship within a corrective Elliott wave zigzag pattern. Secondarily, the 78.6% retracement level for the rally from the January 2019 low to the March 2019 high crosses near 1.2618. This creates a tight zone of wave relationships which may buoy GBPUSD higher. From an Elliott wave perspective, it appears the recent wave lower is wave (2) or (B). If correct, then wave (3) or (C) would carry higher with wave relationships appearing at 1.35 and 1.41. The structure and length of the advance will provide us further clues as to the development of the larger Elliott wave pattern. This view is valid so long as GBP/USD remains above 1.2435. Below 1.2435 means there is another wave pattern at play. Learn more about Elliott Wave Theory with the beginner and advanced Elliott wave guides. —Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M Jeremy Wagner is a Certified Elliott Wave Analyst with a Master's designation. These articles are designed to illustrate Elliott Wave applied to the current market environment. See Jeremy's bio page for recent Elliott Wave articles to see Elliott Wave Theory in action. Discuss this market with Jeremy in Monday's US Opening Bell webinar. Follow on twitter @JWagnerFXTrader . Other Elliott wave reports you may be interested in…http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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XAU Defends Yearly Lows– Breakout Levels Defined Posted: 24 May 2019 09:44 AM PDT Hits: 7 Gold prices are poised to close higher on the week after yet another failed attempt to break below long-term technical support. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts heading into next week. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more. New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide Gold Daily Price Chart (XAUUSD)Technical Outlook: In my latest Gold Price Weekly Outlook we noted that the, "immediate focus is on the weekly close in relation to the 1275/76 zone." – a region defined by the yearly opening-range low, the 38.2% retracement of the 2018 advance and the August trendline. XAU/USD briefly tested the yearly low-day close at 1270 before reversing sharply with the advance taking price back into the May open at 1283. Gold is poised to close above this long-term support zone for a sixth consecutive week and keeps the broader short-bias vulnerable while above- focus remains on a break of the monthly opening-range. Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading Gold 120min Price Chart (XAUUSD)Notes: A closer look at price action shows Gold trading within the confines of an embedded ascending channel formation off the weekly lows. Initial support rests with at 1280 with near-term bullish invalidation now raised to the weekly open at 1277. Topside resistance objectives are eyed at the highlighted trendline confluence around ~1288 and the 61.8% retracement of the monthly decline at 1290 – look for a reaction there. Ultimately a breach / close above the upper parallel / May high-day close at 1296 would be needed to validate a larger reversal in price targeting 1302. Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide Bottom line: Gold prices have responded to multi-month slope support – the focus remains on a break of the recent consolidation range for broader guidance. From a trading standpoint, the immediate threat is for a larger rebound while above 1277 but look for possible near-term exhaustion near 1290 for a pullback. Ultimately a breach above 1296 is needed to suggest a more significant low may be in place. Weakness below the yearly low-day close at 1270 would mark resumption and shift the focus back towards the 100% extension at 1258.Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices. For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy Gold Trader Sentiment
See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment! — Active Trade Setups– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2019/05/20/Weekly-Trade-Levels-for-US-Dollar-Euro-Sterling-Loonie-Gold-Oil-MBCS5.html?ref-author=Boutros http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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Boris as UK Prime Minister Might be Good for Sterling Posted: 24 May 2019 08:31 AM PDT Hits: 14 GBP price, Boris Johnson and Brexit:
Theresa May Resigns as PMIt’s official: Theresa May has announced her resignation as UK prime minister, which will trigger new Tory party leadership elections (and potentially a general election). The news comes just as the European parliamentary elections are getting started, which could very likely see a pro-Brexit party serve as the UK’s largest representative bloc entering the new term. Boris, Brexit and the British PoundFormer British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has become the clear favorite to replace May as both Tory party leader and prime minister. For many traders, that would be a strong signal to sell the British Pound as he is widely seen as a hard-line Brexiteer who would take the UK out of the EU without a deal. Leaving without an agreement, and reverting to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, is seen widely as negative for Sterling. However, Johnson – known countrywide simply as Boris – has changed his mind on Brexit before and might not be as committed to no-deal as he is sometimes seen. As the Conservative-leaning magazine The Spectator asked: "Would he govern as a reckless populist, delighting the Tory membership by driving Britain out of the EU without a deal? Or would he carry out a 'Nixon to China' reverse-ferret, pivoting to a softer Brexit position by way of a second referendum or even revoking Article 50 and starting again?" Indeed, Johnson himself has written: "We who are part of this narrow majority [in favour of Brexit] must do everything we can to reassure the Remainers. We must reach out, we must heal, we must build bridges – because it is clear that some have feelings of dismay, and of loss, and confusion." What Johnson might mean for GBPHis commitment to a no-deal Brexit is therefore not as strong as sometimes portrayed and another "reverse-ferret" – British newspaper slang for reversing your position – cannot be ruled out, meaning there is no guarantee that if he becomes Prime Minister the Pound would extend its recent sharp decline. GBPUSD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (December 27, 2018 – May 22, 2019)Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image) For sure, there are plenty of reasons why GBP could weaken further, as I pointed out here. However, my recent Twitter poll on which possible successor to May would be best for Sterling put Johnson in second position, just behind the Opposition Labour Party's Jeremy Corbyn. To reiterate, selling GBP on a possible Johnson premiership is risky. Who could become UK Prime Minister?Turning to the other runners and riders, the chart below shows that Johnson is not just ahead of the field but increased his lead sharply in May. Source: Michael McDonough, Bloomberg, on Twitter According to the Oddscheker website at the time of writing, many betting companies are now quoting Johnson at 2/1 to take over from May. Here are the approximate odds on her other likely Conservative successors:
Further down the field, two other potential candidates have launched campaign groups: former Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey has unveiled a hardline Brexit group Blue Collar Conservatism (GBP negative) while her successor Amber Rudd has launched a centrist Remain group called One Nation (GBP positive). More to read:British Pound: What every trader needs to know Using News and Events to Trade Forex Resources to help you trade the forex markets:Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you: — Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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US Dollar Price Outlook in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD Posted: 24 May 2019 06:41 AM PDT Hits: 10 EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD Talking Points:Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. US Dollar Rip and DipIt was a climactic day across global markets on Thursday, extending what's become a very active week. European Parliamentary elections are currently taking place, and this morning brought the announcement that British PM Theresa May will be stepping down on June the 7th. Outside of these very key drivers, a number of price action themes availed themselves, driven in-part by the release of FOMC minutes on Wednesday. As looked at yesterday, the US Dollar rallied up to the two-year-high after the release of FOMC meeting minutes. And prices in USD did pose a topside push to establish a fresh two-year-high. But, that's where the music stopped, and following the release of some poor PMI's from yesterday, prices quickly reversed and pushed right back to a key area of support. This comes-in around 97.70, which was the prior yearly high, helping to set resistance in the longer-term ascending wedge pattern that punctuated the backdrop coming into Q2. US Dollar Daily Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley EURUSD Prone to Gap Risk Around Euro ElectionsGoing along with that reversal from fresh highs in the US Dollar, EURUSD put in a reversal after tip-toeing down to a fresh low. The 1.1100 area on the chart remains unfettered as sellers were unable to elicit a test-below this week. As looked at in yesterday's webinar, a key area of chart resistance remains of interest, taken from prior range support that printed in EUR/USD from 1.1187-1.1212. Price action remains in this area ahead of this morning's US open, but traders would likely want to move forward with a bit of caution here as a big theme of weekend risk could elicit outsized gaps to start next week's trade. EURUSD Four-Hour Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley GBPUSD Back DownIt's been a busy morning in the UK as markets finally got word of Theresa May's resignation, set to take place on June the 7th. The likely successor, Boris Johnson, has already been speaking around Brexit this morning, threatening to take the UK out of the EU without a deal by October 31st of this year. After an initial bounce of strength on Ms. May's resignation announcement, prices have found resistance and started to move-lower again, taken from a key area of prior support in GBP/USD. Deeper support potential exists around the 1.2603 level that helped to set the five-month-low in the pair earlier this week. And a bit lower, around 1.2525 is another level of interest, followed by the 1.2442 'flash crash' low that came into play earlier this year. We are likely in for some continued volatility around UK markets, so traders would like want to remain cautious on both sides of the matter for the foreseeable future. GBPUSD Hourly Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley USDCAD Retains Range as 1.3500 Holds the HighsWhile the US Dollar has been on the move this week, so has its Canadian cousin. This amounts to a continued range in USDCAD that became especially interesting in the latter-portion of this week, as a quick dip to support was followed by a strong push up to resistance. That resistance has since held and the range continues, leading into next week's Bank of Canada rate decision. USDCAD Four Hour Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley Will next week's BoC finally be the catalyst that USDCAD needs to move back into trend? The Bank of Canada has been noticeably dovish of recent, removing hints of future rate hikes at the bank's last rate decision in April. But – will they commit to cuts, something that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve appear reticent to do? From the Daily chart, bullish biases can remain attractive given the higher-lows that have printed since the January swoon in the pair. A topside break above the 1.3500 zone exposes resistance potential around 1.3567 followed by 1.3640. USDCAD Daily Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley To read more:Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at. If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. — Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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GBPUSD Choppy, Theresa May Resigns, What Next? Posted: 24 May 2019 05:28 AM PDT Hits: 21 MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GBPUSD Choppy, Theresa May Resigns, What Next? DailyFX Q2 2019 FX Trading Forecasts GBP: The Pound has traded in choppy fashion after Theresa May announced her resignation. In an immediate reaction to the news GBPUSD had saw a modest lift higher towards Wednesday high at 1.2720, before quickly retracing, while EURGBP tested the 0.88 handle. (Full story) What Next?
Whoever the next Prime Minister is, the divided opinion in the political landscape remains the same and while it is difficult to predict the near term outcome in UK politics, there is an increased risk of a general election by the autumn, potentially leading to another extension to A50 (currently set to expire by October 31st). At the time, the risk of a no deal has been increased once again. GBP Bears Beware: Boris as UK Prime Minister Might be Good for Sterling Oil: Following yesterday's plunge in the energy complex, oil prices are set for its largest weekly loss in 2019 as concerns over a global slowdown raises fears over reduced demand. However, given the overextended drop in yesterday's price action, Brent and WTI crude futures have recouped some losses. Alongside this, the backwardation (typically a bullish signal) in the oil curve has steepened, which in turn places the focus on potential supply outages stemming from rising geopolitical tensions. Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters DailyFX Economic Calendar: – North American Releases How to use IG Client Sentiment to Improve Your Trading WHAT'S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY
— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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