Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- Gold Net Longs Slashed, Copper Shorts Peaking, Oil Bulls Scale Back
- Market Sentiment Continues to Deteriorate
- GBPUSD Shorts Surge on Brexit Turmoil
- Bitcoin (BTC) Price Soars to One-Year High, More to Come?
- Crude Oil Prices at Risk as EU Mulls New Leadership, Italy Budget
- Japan Trade Hopes Eclipse US-China Freeze, Boosting Asian Stocks
- Will it Bounce or Break?
- Gold Price Rebound Vulnerable to Upbeat US Economic Data
- Dow Holds Back from Trend Reversal, Euro and Pound Pulsating
| Gold Net Longs Slashed, Copper Shorts Peaking, Oil Bulls Scale Back Posted: 28 May 2019 05:07 AM PDT Hits: 15 COT Report: Analysis and Talking Points
The Predictive Power of the CoT Report Oil: In light of the weaker economic environment, hedge funds have continued to scale back on their bullish positioning for Brent crude oil, which in turn has seen the ratio of long/short positions drop to 13:1 (Prev. 15.5:1). Gold / Silver: Gold net long positioning had been slashed by 41k lots to 24k lots as investors closed out gross long positions. Elsewhere, with silver prices remaining within its 2019 downtrend, bearish positioning in the precious metal jumped to the highest since November 2018 as net shorts rose by 15k lots. Copper: Another rise in net short positioning for the base metal with gross shorts now approaching the peaks seen in 2018 (87.9k) and 2019 (88k) at 84k lots. Consequently, as concerns over the trade war tensions between the US and China mount, sentiment remains bearish on copper.
FX COT REPORT GBPUSD Shorts Surge on Brexit Turmoil KEY TRADING RESOURCES: — Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Market Sentiment Continues to Deteriorate Posted: 28 May 2019 04:31 AM PDT Hits: 8 Market sentiment analysis:
Trader confidence ebbsThe results of the European Parliament elections have failed to restore confidence in the financial markets despite a poorer showing for the far right than some traders had expected. The overall picture remains one of waning support for mainstream parties, with a possible confrontation between the EU and Italy a particular concern for Euro bulls. EURUSD Price Chart, One-Hour Timeframe (May 13 – May 28, 2019)Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image) That has damaged risk sentiment, increasing the demand for havens such as German Bunds and resulting in Bund yields hitting their lowest levels since September 2016. Concerns about who might become the next President of the European Central Bank are also a background worry, outweighing talk of more monetary stimulus from China. By contrast, stock markets remain well off their highs while the Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc and Bitcoin are benefiting. Sterling remains under pressure from Brexit. GBP Price Outlook: Downtrend Still in Place After European Elections In this webinar, I looked at the charts of all the major assets, at the forthcoming confidence figures that might move the markets and at the latest IG Client Sentiment data. Resources to help you trade the forex markets:Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you: — Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| GBPUSD Shorts Surge on Brexit Turmoil Posted: 28 May 2019 02:42 AM PDT Hits: 2 COT Report: Analysis and Talking Points
The Predictive Power of the CoT Report
Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to May 21th, released May 24th) GBPUSD Shorts Soar, AUD Shorts Highest Since November 2015 After last weeks reduction in USD long positioning, speculators had reversed course having increased their bullish bet on the greenback. This had largely been led by the $1.8bln rise in net short positioning in GBP, as investors raised their gross shorts, while also cutting back on their gross longs. The bearish sentiment on the Euro had also increased as speculators raised their net short positioning by $750mln. Safe-haven currencies (JPY & CHF) saw net short positions cut amid the dampened risk appetite. However, short positioning on the Swiss Franc is beginning to look stretched given that shorts outnumber longs by 8:1. Elsewhere, AUD net shorts saw a marginal increase with gross shorts now at the highest since November 2015, which in turn raises the risk of a short squeeze. IG CLIENT POSITIONING:
IG client datashows 80.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.15 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBPUSD traded near 1.31656; price has moved 3.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.8% lower than yesterday and 8.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.1% higher than yesterday and 4.8% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBPUSD trading bias. US Dollar
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
KEY TRADING RESOURCES: — Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Bitcoin (BTC) Price Soars to One-Year High, More to Come? Posted: 28 May 2019 01:25 AM PDT Hits: 15 Bitcoin (BTC) Price Outlook, Chart and Analysis:
IG Client Sentiment Datashows how retail are positioned in a variety of cryptocurrencies. See how daily and weekly positioning can affect our trading bias. Bitcoin (BTC) trade data shows 76.3% of traders are net-long, a strong contrarian bearish signal. However, recent daily and weekly changes in sentiment suggest a mixed trading bias. A Guide to Day Trading Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) Rallies over the Long WeekendAnother sharp move higher for the largest cryptocurrency (56.8% market dominance) with prices making a fresh one-year high and looking likely to move higher again. Increased turnover continues to back the validity of the move, pushing Bitcoin's market capitalization back above $150 billion.
The weekly price chart continues to show Bitcoin in a positive light with the recent rally continuing unabated. The CCI indicator does show Bitcoin as heavily overbought, but the recovery from the December 2018 lows looks sustainable although a small sell-off in the short-term should not be discounted. The recent break above $8,481 needs to be consolidated and closed above on the weekly chart to allow bulls a run at $9,957, just ahead of the psychological level at $10,000. Above here, three previous highs between $11,670 and $11,968 will likely attract attention. Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Price Chart (May 2017 – May 28, 2019)
Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide. What is your view on Bitcoin (BTC) – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.
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| Crude Oil Prices at Risk as EU Mulls New Leadership, Italy Budget Posted: 27 May 2019 11:56 PM PDT Hits: 12 CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:
Crude oil prices are hovering near the top of their near-term congestion range as traders brace for the return of full participation after holidays kept key US and UK markets offline Monday. Bellwether S&P 500 futures are pointing higher, hinting at a risk-on tilt that may be cautiously supportive. This may not be lasting. An EU leaders' summit gathering in Brussels will discuss new leadership for the European Commission, the European Council and the ECB. They may likewise address rumored plans to trigger a disciplinary penalty of €3.5 billion against Italy for failing to meet its budget obligations. Traders will assess commentary emerging from the sit-down to see if front-runners for regional leadership appear more or less inclined in favor expansionary policy. Candidates coming from Southern Europe are likely to be seen as relatively more dovish vs Northern European alternatives. The threat of another destabilizing spat between Rome and Brussels is also worth considering. It might amplify already widening fissures within the regional bloc and portend political instability that spills out as broader risk aversion. News-flow warning as much may weigh on cycle-sensitive energy prices. How gold prices respond against a risk-off backdrop is a bit clouded. Lower bond yields might be supportive in this scenario, but gains could be checked if the US Dollar reclaims support from haven demand. That seems to hinge on the degree of anti-risk liquidation. Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out! GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices continue to probe falling trend line resistance set from late February. Breaking its upper layer – now at 1296.47 – on a daily closing basis targets the 1303.70-09.12 price band next. Alternatively, move below the 1260.80-63.76 zone would hint at bearish trend change and expose the 1235.11-38.00 region. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are digesting last week's aggressive downswing above support in the 57.24-88 area. Breaking below it on a daily closing basis exposes the 55.37-75 zone. Alternatively, a push above resistance in the 60.39-95 region targets the 63.59-64.43 price band next.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Japan Trade Hopes Eclipse US-China Freeze, Boosting Asian Stocks Posted: 27 May 2019 10:03 PM PDT Hits: 9 Asian Stocks Talking Points:
Find out what retail foreign exchange investors make of your favorite currency's chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page Asia Pacific stock investors went back into the markets Tuesday across the board, with some rare trade optimism discernible, not between the US and China where relations remain in deep freeze, but between the US and Japan. US President Donald Trump is in the country on a four-day state visit at which he said on Monday that he hopes to announce a trade deal soon. There remains no sign of any rapprochement with China, where Beijing has rebuffed US demands that the state-run system be reformed, but investors clearly chose to focus on Japan. With there apparently no sign whatever of the China deal many had hoped for by the end of this month, it may be that they are looking for crumbs of comfort elsewhere. The Nikkei 225 added 0.5% as its afternoon wound down. Semiconductor player Tokyo Electron made big gains after announcing a share buyback. Shanghai's mainboard added 0.9% with Australia's ASX 200 up by 0.5%. Regional foreign exchange markets felt the lack of both New York and London Monday for holiday breaks. The Euro lost some of the composure it had hitherto retained as investors looked to the results of European Parliamentary elections and the inevitable increasing fragmentation they will bring. The US Dollar traded narrow ranges against its other major traded rivals. Heightened risk aversion can make foreign exchange markets something of a 'haven battle' between the Japanese Yen and its US counterpart, and that trend has been seen often this year. The Yen has had the better of the contest in recent weeks, with USD/JPY sliding to lows now seen since February. However, the bears seem to have been driven off for the moment, with the pair apparently building a base above May's lows. The rest of Tuesday's session offers plenty of scheduled economic data points, with consumer confidence indicators from Germany and, more importantly, the US, likely to garner most attention. Resources for TradersWhether you're new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There's our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There's also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they're all free. — Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch! http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Posted: 27 May 2019 08:49 PM PDT Hits: 10 NORDIC FX, NOK, SEK WEEKLY OUTLOOK
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! USDNOK TECHNICAL ANALYSISUSDNOK broke below the lower lip of the 8.6937-8.7883 range (solid yellow lines), and meaningful follow-through could be a major risk and could usurp optimism over the pair's upward trajectory. The rising support (red parallel channel) has been active for over 14 months. A break below this with follow-through would mark a significant turn for the pair's movement. USDNOK – Daily Chart Despite USDNOK coming dangerously close to breaking below the over-one year rising support, the pair appear to be determined to continue higher. This comes despite a comparatively more hawkish outlook from the Norges Bank relative to the Fed. Unless the pair break below this upward-sloping support with follow-through, the current trajectory is expected to continue at least until year-end. USDNOK – Weekly Chart
Want to know what are the fundamental themes driving Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone price action? Follow me on Twitter at @ZabelinDimitri to keep up to date on all-things Nordic. KRONA TECHNICAL ANALYSISUSDSEK appears to be retreating from the sugar high it experienced in late April when the pair jumped approximately 2.5 percent. The break above resistance at 9.3110 (solid red line) with follow-through marked a significant bullish landmark as USDSEK continued to trade at a 17-year high. However, the pair may have now found a new temporary range between 9.5323-9.5767 (red dotted parallel lines). USDSEK – Daily Chart
The prospective congestion may be a repeat of what had occurred earlier in the year when the pair spiked, cooled and traded sideways before resuming its broad uptrend. The period of relatively-lateral price movement could be thought of as a digestive interim where market participants take a moment to reevaluate their position and determine if the prevailing trend will continue along its current trajectory. A monthly chart shows the uptrend has continued along its steep incline since January 2018. The prevailing trend will likely continue and will be supported by fundamental tailwinds that will put a premium on liquidity and a discount on risk. In this environment, the almighty US Dollar's unparalleled liquidity will redirect capital away from risk-oriented assets like the Swedish Krona. USDSEK – Monthly Chart
SWEDISH KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Gold Price Rebound Vulnerable to Upbeat US Economic Data Posted: 27 May 2019 05:06 PM PDT Hits: 8 Gold Price Talking PointsThe recent rebound in gold appears to have stalled going into the end of May, with the price of bullion at risk of facing range-bound conditions as the U.S. economy is anticipated to show little to no signs of an imminent recession. Gold Price Rebound Vulnerable to Upbeat US Economic DataGold prices may continue to consolidate following the failed attempt to test the monthly-low ($1266), but fresh developments coming out of the U.S. may drag on bullion if the data prints encourage the Federal Reserve to retain a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy. An uptick in the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey along with signs of sticky price growth should keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the sidelines as the 'information received since the Committee met in March indicated that the labor market remained strong and that economic activity had risen at a solid rate.' It seems as though the FOMC is in no rush to alter the forward guidance for monetary policy as 'many uncertainties affecting the U.S. and global economic outlooks had receded,' and it remains to be seen if Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. will continue to project a longer-run interest rate of 2.50% to 2.75% at the next interest rate decision on June 19 as Fed officials are slated to update the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
With that said, the FOMC may continue to insist that 'if the economy evolved as they expected, the Committee would likely need to firm the stance of monetary policy to sustain the economic expansion and keep inflation at levels consistent with the Committee’s objective,' and more of the same from Fed officials may produce headwinds for gold as it dampens speculation for a change in regime. Keep in mind, there appears to be a broader shift in market behavior as the price for bullion snaps the opening range for 2019, and the precious metal remains at risk of giving back the advance from the 2018-low ($1160) as a head-and-shoulders formation remains in play. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets. Gold Price Daily Chart
For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Gold Additional Trading ResourcesAre you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-05-28 00:00:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Dow Holds Back from Trend Reversal, Euro and Pound Pulsating Posted: 27 May 2019 08:11 AM PDT Hits: 12 Weekly Technical Forecast: Dow Holds Back from Trend Reversal, Euro and Pound PulsatingWhile volatility readings are still remarkably restrained, we are seeing a host of critical markets pressuring or overtaking key technical levels. Whether the Dow's eyeing 25,200, the Sterling on the verge of reversing its longest tumble on record or looking to leverage its biggest single-day loss of 2019, there is remarkable technical risk and opportunity in our markets. Gold Price Weekly Outlook – Looking to Break a Tightening Range Gold is trapped in a short-term range and price action is building for a potential breakout next week. EUR/USD, EUR/NZD Chart Outlook Bearish with EUR./JPY Bottoming EUR/USD and EUR/NZD may find themselves aiming lower in the medium-term as the Euro depreciates. Against the Japanese Yen, EUR/JPY is facing key support and bullish reversal warnings. Dow Jones, FTSE 100, DAX Technical Forecast The Dow Jones is on course for its longest weekly losing streak in 8-years, while losses in the FTSE 100 is eased by the drop in the Pound. Pound Collapse Building Pressure for Reversal or Mere Liquidity Pause? After a near-relentless dive from the British Pound these past three weeks, there was a break in the clouds Friday with a Sterling bounce on the same day the Prime Minister announced her resignation. Is this the first step for a reversal? Oil Weekly Price Outlook: Crude Collapses as WTI Searches for Support Crude prices posted an outside weekly reversal off the monthly highs and risk further losses into the May close. These are the levels that matter on the WTI weekly chart. US Dollar Forecast: Can Volatility Rise Alongside Trade Weighted USD? A sharp turn lower in the US Dollar may provide a short reprieve to the strangling of a strong US Dollar on the global economy, but the long-term trends continue to favor a stronger US Dollar Index. 2019-05-27 14:00:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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