Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- EURO and US Dollar May Continue Falling Against Swiss Franc EUR/CHF, USD/CHF Price Outlook
- Oil Prices Risk Larger Recovery as OPEC+ Leaders Meet at G20 Summit
- S&P 500 Topping? Stocks Eye US Durable Goods Orders for Volatility
- S&P 500 and Dow Extreme Quiet vs Record Highs, Dollar Continues Dive
- BRL, Ibovespa Fall on Copom Minutes
- NZDUSD Uptrend Holds as RBNZ Fails to Excite August Rate Cut Bets
- NZDUSD Rate to Eye Monthly High on Wait-and-See Policy
- MU Earnings to Prop up Nasdaq 100
- NZD/USD Implied Volatility Soars Ahead of RBNZ Rate Review
- US Dollar Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD
| EURO and US Dollar May Continue Falling Against Swiss Franc EUR/CHF, USD/CHF Price Outlook Posted: 26 Jun 2019 02:57 AM PDT Hits: 7 USD/CHF Price Outlook, Charts and Analysis
Find out more about EUR and USD price outlook through mid-year, download for free Q2 major currencies forecasts EUR and USD Trading Lower Against CHFSince May 10, a bearish move sent EUR/CHF to its lowest level in nearly 11 months at 1.1057 losing 1.0% of its value. Alongside, USD/CHF lost approximately 4.0% printing yesterday its lowest level in nine months at 0.9694. Today, the Relative Strength index (RSI) reading in both pairs is at 30 nearby the oversold territory, reflecting the sellers are still in charge. Just getting started? See our Beginners' Guide for FX traders USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (MAR 1, 2019 – June 26, 2019) Zoomed inUSD/CHF Daily Price Chart (Oct 5, 2016 – June 26, 2019) Zoomed Out
Looking at the Daily chart, we notice that USD/CHF closed on June 24 below the levels discussd in our pervious update at 0.9785 and failed yesterday to close above, eying a test of 0.9625 although, the weekly supports underlined on the chart need to be considered. Further bearish momentum may require a close below 0.9625. This mean USD/CHF could head towards 0.9540. See the chart to find out more about the weekly support levels to be watched along the way. In turn, a close above 0.9785 might lead USD/CHF towards 0.9860. Nonetheless, the weekly resistance zone from 0.9797 up to 0.9814 should be kept in focus. See the chart for more details if the rally continues beyond 0.9860. Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here's the #1 Mistake That Traders Make EUR/CHF Daily Price Chart (Feb 26, 2019 – June 26, 2019) Zoomed in
EUR/CHF Daily Price Chart (Jan 10, 2017 – June 26, 2019) Zoomed Out
Looking at the Daily chart, we notice that EUR/CHF closed on June 19 below 1.1190 eying a test of 1.1001. On the following day, the price found support at 1.1057 pausing the bearish move. The price rallied yesterday however, closed with a bearish Doji. See the chart to find out about the key levels if the price rallies towards 1.1190 and above. A continuation of the bearish trend might require EUR/CHF to close below 1.1057. This could see the pair trading towards 1.1001 although, the weekly support at 1.1023 would be worth monitoring. A close below 1.1001 could pave the way towards 1.0960. See the chart to know more about the weekly support to be watched. Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi 2019-06-26 09:27:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | ||||||||||||
| Oil Prices Risk Larger Recovery as OPEC+ Leaders Meet at G20 Summit Posted: 25 Jun 2019 10:55 PM PDT Hits: 14 Oil Price Talking PointsCrude looks poised for a larger rebound ahead of the Group of 20 (G20) summit as the price of oil extends the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week. Oil Prices Risk Larger Recovery as OPEC+ Leaders Meet at G20 SummitDevelopments coming out of the G20 summit may shake up the near-term outlook for crude as US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with China President Xi Jinping. Details of a US-China trade deal should keep oil prices afloat as it boosts the outlook for consumption, but the resolution may do little to deter the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies from regulating the energy market as the group warns of waning demand. OPEC's most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) highlights slower consumption for 2019, with the group noting that "world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.14 mb/d, lower than last month's assessment by 0.07 mb/d." In turn, comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman may have a greater impact on crude prices as the two leaders are slated to meet at the G20 summit, and the group may continue to curb production in 2019 in an effort to stave off a bear market.
With that said, crude oil prices stand at risk of staging a larger recovery ahead of the OPEC meeting starting on July 1, but the broader outlookis no longer constructive as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the bullish trends from earlier this year. Crude Oil Daily Chart
Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups. For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Oil Additional Trading Resources Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-06-26 05:00:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | ||||||||||||
| S&P 500 Topping? Stocks Eye US Durable Goods Orders for Volatility Posted: 25 Jun 2019 10:19 PM PDT Hits: 6 Asia Pacific Markets Talking Points
Find out what retail traders' equities buy and sell decisions say about the coming price trend! Equities traded mixed during Wednesday's Asia Pacific session, though those that declined far outpaced ones that were positive or little changed. Most notably, the Nikkei 225 aimed about 0.6 percent lower heading into Tokyo's close. This follows a generally pessimistic day on Wall Street where St. Louis Fed President James Bullard cooled aggressive dovish bets for July's interest rate announcement. Meanwhile, the RBNZ failed to significantly bolster August rate cut expectations which boosted NZDUSD. China's benchmark stock index, the Shanghai Composite, weakened a little over 0.2 percent. Australia's ASX 200 traded little changed as financials, which compose about a third of the index, fell and health care stocks rallied. Stocks Eyeing US Data, G20 BuildupS&P 500 futures are little changed heading into European and US trading hours as markets await this week's G20 leaders summit for US-China trade war updates. In the near-term, softer-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders could rekindle dovish Fed support, boosting stocks. S&P 500 Technical AnalysisTaking a closer look at S&P 500, to show after-hours trade, the index closed under a rising support line from the beginning of this month. This follows a failure to breach resistance at 2961. A Double Top, which is a bearish reversal pattern, formed as a result. Confirmation of a reversal ought to need further closes to the downside. S&P 500 Futures Daily ChartCharts Created in TradingView FX Trading Resources— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | ||||||||||||
| S&P 500 and Dow Extreme Quiet vs Record Highs, Dollar Continues Dive Posted: 25 Jun 2019 08:59 PM PDT Hits: 8 Risk Trend Talking Points:
See how retail traders are positioning in S&P 500, Gold and Dollar-based majors along with the other key FX pairs, indices and oil intraday using the DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page. A Committed Reversal or Simple Loss of Momentum?It seems the markets are in the ‘fundamental irons’ – borrowing a nautical term referring to situation when the bow of the boat is heading into the wind and unable to maneuver. The motivation from the Fed’s shift to support dovish market speculation this past week seems to be loosening its hold and anticipation for the G-20 summit (for its trade war implications specifically) is building. In this thematic dead zone, the stretched position for speculators is laid bare. Is there enough fundamental backing for the recent gains for bulls to hold to or did momentum play a greater role in recent performance than genuine conviction? There was a broad reversal in risk-leaning assets through the past session from global indices to emerging market assets. For many markets and their respective benchmarks, the correction doesn’t seem particularly loaded. That isn’t the case for the S&P 500 and Dow Average. Having crested record highs, any subsequent development carries far greater meaning than perhaps is intended. Which milestone you use for your assessment of next steps – say S&P 500 or global yields – will likely color your expectations for market performance moving forward. Choose wisely. Chart of 9-Month Performance of S&P 500, Emerging Markets, Global Equities, Commodities (Daily) If we are looking to determine a tepid correction through stretched speculative positioning from the likes of the S&P 500 from a full-blown reversal, we should expect to find some reliable charge to fuel conviction. For the US indices, there was a significant scale of retreat this past session (the biggest drop since May 31st), but that seems to be more the product of a restrained climb in the preceding weeks than a full-blown retreat through Tuesday’s session. A closer look at the slump, that accounts for the stretched nature of certain pace-setters, suggests there is perhaps not the same level of committed deleveraging that falls outside the influence of those particularly stretched measures. Whether, we refer to the rest-of-world equity ETF (VEU), the EEM emerging market product or carry trade; there is nowhere near the sense of over-extended exposure as what we are registering for the benchmark US indices. It is always possible that an unexpected fundamental wind arises through geopolitical fallout or GDP seizure, but that is not something to bank on for a committed tumble for a benchmark like the Dow. Then again, diverting from record highs with meaningful support not coming into view until much lower can still foster range opportunities where reversals fall short. Chart of S&P 500 and 1-Day Rate of Change (Daily)
Dollar and Gold Are Not Responding to Risk But A Common Underlying DriverAs risk measures topple, it is tempting to bundle similarly abrupt reversals under the same umbrella of influence. However, when we misattribute a significant market move to the improper underlying motivation, we are naturally ill prepared for subsequent movements. One such disconnected move that seems to correlate to the slump in equities is the turn in the DXY Index and other Dollar measures. The Greenback unmistakably put in for its first advance in five trading days Tuesday. That turn would not be so noticeable if it weren’t for the fact that the preceding dive crashed through the floor of a 13-month rising trend channel support, the 200-day moving average and a possible ‘neckline’ to a drawn-out head-and-shoulders pattern. We could misinterpret the correction as a facile response from a safe haven asset, but the truth is more fulfilling. With the Fed’s influence from this past Wednesday rate decision flagging, the artificial lift from external policy support eases underneath risk benchmarks, but it also curbs the pressure on the Dollar’s fall from ‘rate advantage’ grace. If the theme tempers, a measure like the DXY may very well hover just below a critical technical milestone. Then again, there are pairs like the USDCHF which could take advantage of a directionless benchmark. Chart of Dollar Index and 200-Day Moving Average (Daily)
Another market leader that draws connection to recent developments outside of the traditional ‘risk’ cycle is gold. The precious metal managed to squeeze out a sixth consecutive gain through Tuesday’s close. It doesn’t mark the longest run in recent history, but the more-than 6 percent climb is exceptional. This past session’s gains were significantly smaller than previous day’s progress which already draws attention. In technical terms, the struggle occurs around the midpoint of the October 2012 to November 2015 slide. The intraday tail (or ‘wick’) that resulted from the about-face furthers a forest of significant interim corrections that speaks to growing volatility. The fundamental swell behind the precious metal is unmistakably the uniform devaluation of the major currencies which is far from resolved. Yet, here too, the commanding influence of the US central bank’s policy efforts matters, which gives leverage to headlines that signaled moderation from Chairman Jerome Powell and committed-dove James Bullard who argued against over-reacting to short-term sentiment swings and the wisdom of a 50 basis point cut respectively. Chart of Gold and Daily 'Tails' (Daily)
Political Risks That Venture Into Economics and Always Tying Back to GDPAs we move beyond the reach of monetary policy (until the next focused update) and we await the resolution on trade wars from the world’s largest economies at the scheduled Summit, there is still considerable potential for unexpected developments to sweep across the landscape. Even trade wars has its secondary venues to monitor. Tuesday headlines warned that three major Chinese banks may be under review by American authorities for dealing with North Korea – possible pretense to leverage pressure before the Trump-Xi discussions. Further, after the New York close this past session, there was some acute volatility through afterhours trade of Micron Technology and Fedex, two companies with direct exposure to ongoing trade wars. The former managed to beat consensus forecasts of a $0.79 EPS (earnings per share) with a $1.05 performance despite 13 percent of revenues attached to blacklisted Chinese firm Huawei. There were no caveats to the shipping logistics firm which announced it was suing the US government over its attempt to control exports. Chart of Micron Technology and Fedex Regular Hours (Daily)
As we measure the ebb and flow of monetary policy and trade war influence, it is important to remember these are means to an end. The catalysts will ultimately manifest in genuine economic activity and speculative repositioning. Trade wars continue to eat away at the growth potential that benefited so demonstrably from the expansive efforts of the world’s largest central banks. The reports that US consumer confidence took a dive this past month through the Conference Board’s survey amplifies the reports from businesses lobbying the White House this past week to turn away from its trade fight. The more tangible the collapse of economic health becomes, the sharper the collapse in effectiveness of monetary policy grows – perhaps the only deep well of potential recovery left.
Another variable outlet of far-reaching influence to monitor in this transitional period is the growing weight of political risk. Much of the attention remains on the war-of-words between Iran and the United States – and rightfully so. Wars between Middle Eastern countries and the world’s largest military is familiar prose these past decades. This past session, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said there was no reason to carry on with the nuclear deal unilaterally while President Trump responded to “insulting” remarks by warning “overwhelming force” would be used in response to any attacks on US assets. For its part, WTI crude oil was forging a moderate advance this past session. This is a good barometer for this particular front, more so for its gauge of intensity rather than a simple assessment of improvement or deterioration. And, while this particular story tends to override many other concerns, reports that the US President is considering the end of support for the Japanese defense treaty for cost concerns should not be overlooked. Chart of US Crude Oil and CBOE Oil Volatility Index (Daily)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-06-26 03:49:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | ||||||||||||
| BRL, Ibovespa Fall on Copom Minutes Posted: 25 Jun 2019 08:20 PM PDT Hits: 6 TALKING POINTS – IBOVESPA, BRL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, COPOM MEETING MINUTES, PENSION REFORM VOTE
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! HEATWAVE FROM COPOM MINUTESThe Brazilian Real and Ibovespa found themselves swimming in a sea of red by the end of Tuesday's trading session. The index extended an almost-two percent decline that was primarily being dragged down by Brasil Bolsa Balcoa's 5.1 percent drop. Prior to that, the benchmark had risen by over four percent since June 18, breaking past its previous landmark-high at 100,000 points. How Much Further Will the Decline Extend? The release of the Copom meeting minutes along with conflicting news on the government's pension reform bill almost certainly contributed to a volatile day. As anticipated, policymakers emphasized how important these structural reforms are for future inflationary pressure and growth prospects. Officials also stressed how crucial the passage of this bill is to boosting confidence and stimulating investment. Analysts are expecting the benchmark Selic rate to be lowered to 5.75 percent by the end of the year and policymakers removed the reference to "symmetrical" inflationary pressure. The absence of such a phrase, along with commentary on the underutilization of industrial capacity and higher-than-desired unemployment suggests inflationary risks are tilting to the downside and could prompt an adjustment in monetary policy. After the minutes were published, central bank President Roberto Campos Neto held a press conference in Brasilia where he warned of deteriorating global growth prospects and frustration with the uncertainty about the passage of the pension reform bill. He underscored the importance of how the perception of the reforms are affecting the economic outlook, expectations for future price growth and risk premium for Brazilian assets. KEY EXCERPTS FROM MEETING MINUTES"The Copom emphasizes that the evolution of reforms and necessary adjustments in the Brazilian economy is essential for the reduction of its structural interest rate and for sustainable economic recovery" "[Copom members] stressed that the persistence of uncertainties regarding fiscal sustainability tend to be contractionary." "By reducing fundamental uncertainties about the Brazilian economy, these reforms tend to stimulate private investment. This potential expansionary effect should, to some extent, offset the impact of short-term fiscal adjustments on economic activity, as well as mitigate the risk of episodes of large risk premium increases, as witnessed in 2018." PENSION REFORM VOTESGiven that the central bank is essentially forming monetary policy around the outcome of the reforms – much like the BoE and Brexit – traders will likely be watching every political development with greater scrutiny. The Brazilian government is expecting for the lower house of Congress to vote on the bill before July 18, though protests by lawmakers may still be able to induce short-term risk aversion and volatility. BRL Crosses Fall After Party Leader Announces He is Seeking to Delay the Vote
Prior to the plenary vote, the special committee in Congress will be voting on it this week. The signature reform will be subject to a rigorous process and numerous votes, possibly past the initial August deadline. The worry is along the way the reforms will lose some of their potency, especially after a recent amendment changed the projected savings over the course of a decade from 1.237 trillion reais to now 914 billion. FX TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | ||||||||||||
| NZDUSD Uptrend Holds as RBNZ Fails to Excite August Rate Cut Bets Posted: 25 Jun 2019 07:42 PM PDT Hits: 6 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | ||||||||||||
| NZDUSD Rate to Eye Monthly High on Wait-and-See Policy Posted: 25 Jun 2019 05:48 PM PDT Hits: 10 Trading the News: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate DecisionThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision may fuel a larger rebound in NZDUSD as the central bank is expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.50%. In fact, the record of the May meeting suggests the RBNZ is in no rush to implement another rate cut and will revert back to a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as "the Committee agreed that the projections adequately captured the observed global slowdown and its impact on domestic employment and inflation." With that said, fresh comments coming out of the RBNZ may keep NZDUSD afloat over the remainder of the week if the central bank tames speculation for lower interest rates. However, the RBNZ may endorse a dovish forward guidance as officials insist "a lower path for the OCR over the projection period was appropriate," and the policy statement may rattle the near-term rebound in the New Zealand Dollar if the RBNZ shows a greater willingness to implement another rate cut in 2019. Sign up and join DailyFX Analyst David Cottle LIVE to cover the RBNZ interest rate decision Impact that the RBNZ rate decision had on NZD/USD during the previous meeting
May 2019 Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision NZD/USD 10-Minute Chart
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced the official cash rate (OCR) to a fresh record-low of 1.50% in May as "members agreed that given the recent weaker domestic spending, and projected ongoing growth and employment headwinds, there was a need for further monetary stimulus to meet its objectives." It seems as though the RBNZ will keep the door to further insulate the economy as "trade concerns remain," but the bank central bank appears to be in no rush to implement a series of rate cuts as the committee discussed "the relative benefits of holding the OCR and committing to a downward bias." The New Zealand dollar tumbled to a session low of 0.6525 following the 25bp rate cut, but the initial reaction was short-lived, with NZDUSD paring the losses to close the day at 0.6575. Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News. NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart
Additional Trading ResourcesNew to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide. Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-06-26 00:30:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | ||||||||||||
| MU Earnings to Prop up Nasdaq 100 Posted: 25 Jun 2019 03:14 PM PDT Hits: 9 Stock Market Forecast:
Stock Market Forecast: MU Earnings to Prop up Nasdaq 100Against all odds, Micron Technology (MU) delivered an earnings beat Tuesday afternoon as shares rocketed higher on the unexpected result. In immediate after-hours trading, MU boasted an 8% gain – narrowly within the implied price move derived from options pricing. If they are to continue higher, Micron shares must now negotiate confluent Fibonacci resistance around $36.70. Despite sourcing 13% of their revenue from Huawei in the first half of their fiscal year, Micron generated $4.79 billion in revenue for the quarter, beating out market expectations of $4.69 billion. Consequently, earnings per share also impressed – $1.05 versus the $0.79 forecast. With a beat of this magnitude – from a company with considerable exposure to the US-China trade war and Huawei blacklisting – industry peers could enjoy some respite. Micron (MU) Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January – June) (Chart 1)That said, the SOX ETF has already enjoyed a boost from the news, trading 1.5% higher in post-market price action. Therefore, it could be expected the boisterousness of a key stock in a high-growth industry could transition to strength for the Nasdaq 100. The report may have arrived at the nick of time with the tech-heavy Index trading narrowly above a 60-point gap. Nasdaq 100 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January – June) (Chart 2)
Closing at 7,591, the Nasdaq 100 is teetering on a knife's edge following a series of comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell which saw stocks sell off alongside Gold. Aside from Tuesday's closing price – which has provided spotty technical influence at best – the Index lacks nearby support which could result in a quick decline to 7,500. Should bears take control, expect minor technical support at that level before another area of weakness from 7,466 to 7,421. If, on the other hand, Micron's beat and the implications for the sector it brings with it are enough for bulls to see a buying opportunity, look for the Nasdaq to run into resistance around 7,700. Follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for more updates on tech stocks and equities. –Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX Read more:AUDUSD & Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook: Huawei Offers Opportunity http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | ||||||||||||
| NZD/USD Implied Volatility Soars Ahead of RBNZ Rate Review Posted: 25 Jun 2019 01:20 PM PDT Hits: 9 NZD/USD CURRENCY VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS
Overnight swaps are pricing in a mere 20.5 percent chance that the June RBNZ meeting this Wednesday at 2:00 GMT will reveal a 25 basis point cut to the central bank's policy interest rate.Low rate cut expectations for tomorrow are likely driven largely by the relatively upbeat trade balance data report released on Monday and considering the RBNZ just cut rates at its last meeting back in May. Although rate traders are expecting the RBNZ to leave its overnight cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.5 percent, elevated readings on New Zealand Dollar implied volatility measures suggest that tomorrow's monetary policy update will largely impact the anticipation of another rate move at the August 6 meeting. NZD/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 05, 2018 TO JUNE 25, 2019)Judging by NZD/USD overnight implied volatility of 15.6 percent, which is the highest reading since May 7, the currency pair is estimated to fluctuate within a 1-standard deviation trading band between 0.6596 and 0.6704. The calculated lower and upper barriers of the 109-pip range surrounding spot NZD/USD closely aligns with the 23.6 percent and 50.0 percent retracement levels of the 2019 trading range. Sharpen your skills as a trader with this free educational guide covering How to Trade Forex News If the RBNZ and Governor Orr take a relatively hawkish stance on Wednesday, markets could begin to reducing bets that the central bank cuts again in August which will likely boost the kiwi and threatens to push spot NSD/USD toward the 0.67 handle. Although, upside must first overcome technical resistance posed by the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement. Conversely, if the RBNZ and Governor Orr choose to tee up a near-certain rate cut in August with dovish language tomorrow, it is probable that the New Zealand Dollar will swoon in response. In this case, NZD/USD threatens to push lower towards support around the psychologically-significant 0.6600 price level. SPOT NZD/USD TRADER SENTIMENT
Check out IG's Client Sentiment here for more detail on the bullish and bearish biases of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, Bitcoin and S&P500. According to IG Client Sentiment data, 70.7 percent of retail traders are net-long spot NZD/USD resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 2.41. Yet, relative to last week, the number of traders net-long is 31.0 percent lower while the number of traders net-short is 7.3 percent higher. As retail trader positioning data is generally interpreted with a contrarian lens, recent changes in spot NZD/USD positioning could hint that the New Zealand Dollar's climb since June 14 may soon reverse lower. Sign up for a live webinar on IG Client Sentiment hosted by DailyFX analysts for additional information on interpreting trader positioning data and incorporating it into a trading strategy. – Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX – Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | ||||||||||||
| US Dollar Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD Posted: 25 Jun 2019 12:44 PM PDT Hits: 9 US Dollar Price Action Talking Points:This is a walk-through of the charts being discussed during the live price action webinar. Upon conclusion of the webinar, the archive will be available from the video box above. Below are charts of markets to be addressed during this session. US Dollar Grasps for Support at 96.00 HandleIt's been a brutal month of June so far for the Greenback. The currency had come into the month clinging to a bullish theme that had started last February. The Q2 open presented an ascending triangle formation, which will often be approached for bullish breakouts. That bullish breakout took place in April and again in May, but in both instances, buyers were met with resistance at the 98.33 area on the chart; helping to create another candlestick formation, but this time pointing south. A rising wedge will often be approached with the aim of bearish reversals, and the short-side of that formation has already given way on the heels of last week's FOMC rate decision. At this point, USD appears oversold, and a prior zone of support remains as resistance potential around the confluent price of 96.47. US Dollar Daily Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley EURUSD Rally Gets Caught at 1.1400 – Top or Not?Perhaps most surprising from last week was the topside ramp in EURUSD. While Mario Draghi echoed a familiar dovish tone in a speech last week, this was more than offset by the dovish flip at the Fed. And perhaps more importantly, the short-side move in EURUSD has been rather pronounced since last year, leading to a longer-term oversold situation that was ripe for a short-squeeze scenario. That's likely the primary culprit behind the move, but there may be more room yet for it to go. At this stage, resistance is showing off of the 1.1400 handle. The big question is whether buyers return to offer higher-low support around the prior group of swing highs in the 1.1325-1.1350 area. EURUSD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley GBPUSD Support Bounce Runs into 2750 ResistanceLast week saw a similar move of strength in GBPUSD, however this was a bit tamer than what had shown in EURUSD above. In GBPUSD, a long-term Fibonacci level and a trend-line projection came into play to help hold the lows. But, the corresponding advance has been met with sellers at the 2750 psychological level. A close today below the 1.2705 level keeps the door open for short-side strategies, looking to strike on a bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. GBPUSD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley USDJPY Crosses 107: Time for a Bounce?I've been following the short-side of USDJPY for over a month now, looking to the pair for themes of USD-weakness with the added potential of additional Yen-strength on the back of risk aversion flows. The risk aversion flows haven't really shown-up, but USD-weakness certainly has. The target at 107 was crossed earlier today, but the pair has oversold tonalities and may soon be due for a bounce. This places emphasis on the prior support level around 108.00 for lower-high resistance potential. USDJPY Eight-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley USDCAD Retains Attractiveness for Short-Side USD ThemesLast week also brought a big inflation print out of Canada ahead of that FOMC rate decision. This added a bit of CAD-strength to go along with that USD-weakness, allowing for USDCAD to fall out of the bottom of a longer-term symmetrical wedge pattern. USDCAD Weekly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley This can keep the door open for short-side breakout appeal for themes around a continuation of USD-weakness. A Fibonacci level lurks below around the 1.3132 area on the chart, and a push below that opens the door for a test of the level at 1.3066. Alternatively, a pullback to the prior support zone that ran from 1.3250-1.3300 can open the door for short-side trend strategies in USDCAD. USDCAD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley AUDUSD Pushing Back Towards .7000It's been a busy month in the Aussie. The pair found support in May and trended-higher into the opening days of June, even as the RBA cut rates to a record low. The pair eventually found resistance in a zone that runs from .7000-.7019; after which a reversal followed as AUDUSD pushed down to fresh five-month-lows. But, since last week's emergence of USD-weakness, the pair has clawed-back a large portion of those prior losses and is heading back to that key area of resistance. Can the .7000 area hold another topside advance? This can keep the pair as attractive for themes of USD-strength for those looking to play a bounce in the US currency. AUDUSD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley To read more:Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at. If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. — Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
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