Analyst Articles – Forex News 24

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis
US Dollar, Stocks Eye Fed Financial Stress Test, Iran Tension
Stocks Rise on US-China Trade Truce? INR at Risk, Trump Eyes India
NZDUSD Rate Breaks Out of Monthly Opening Range Following RBNZ
USD/JPY Downtrend Dominates But Could Face Near-Term Test
NZD Slips As ANZ Survey Shows Business Confidence Hit Again
BRL, Ibovespa Eye Inflation Data
Yen Sunk on Mnuchin China Trade Deal Comment, USDJPY Downtrend Held
Bitcoin Price Plummets $2,000 in Minutes After Failing at Resistance
Nike Earnings to Influence Dow Jones Index

Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

Posted: 27 Jun 2019 01:36 AM PDT

S&P 500/Dow Jones/Nasdaq 100 Outlook:

S&P 500 pulling back from record levels
Dow Jones could consolidate before trading higher
Nasdaq 100 showing relative weakness
Bonus chart: Keep watching the Russell

See how the quarterly forecast has played out what it could mean for the big-picture – Q2 Equity Markets Forecast.

S&P 500 pulling back from record levels

The S&P 500 is reacting a bit from around record levels as was suggested might happen last week, and while the initial move lower has held a little bit of power we can't yet read too much into it from a bearish standpoint.

Seeing a snapback here and bit of consolidation may gear the market up for a move higher soon. The tone and trend are still favorable at the moment. What could change this, however, is if the S&P 500 turns back up towards the high at 2964 and posts a clear failure, resulting in a lower-high or double-top. A turn up and swift rejection a second time may do the trick for giving sellers the upper hand.

But conviction is lacking and which way the market wants to resolve itself is still very much up air at the moment; need to give the market a minute to breathe and provide better indications before running with a strong trading bias in either direction.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how retail traders are positioned and what it could potentially mean for various currencies and markets moving forward.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (watch how another turn higher unfolds)

Dow Jones could consolidate before trading higher

The Dow Jones is turning down from around record levels, but holding up a little bit better than the other indices. A period of consolidation would do the index some good before trying to launch through the 26952 level.

Dow Jones Daily Chart (consolidate before push to highs?)

Nasdaq 100 showing relative weakness

The down-move met support from June 11 at 7595, a good spot to see the Nasdaq 100 turn higher from. Overall there is still some lag as it has yet to trade to the record high levels from April. If it is to do so a move through 7770 will need to develop, first, then the 7852 can be challenged.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart (levels to watch)

Bonus chart: Russel 2k lag is concerning

Continue to monitor the Russell 2k, a barometer of overall market health I continue to focus on as it lags severely on all time-frames from short to long-term. Keep an eye on the head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern that is developing. A crossing below the trend-line of the December will quickly have he neckline in focus and potential break. If this pattern triggers it would be a bad omen for the market.

Russell 2000 Daily Chart (H&S forming…)

To learn more about U.S. indices, check out "The Difference between Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500: Major Facts & Opportunities." You can join me every Wednesday at 10 GMT for live analysis on equity indices and commodities, and for the remaining roster of live events, check out the webinar calendar.

Tools for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a beginning or experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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2019-06-27 08:00:00

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US Dollar, Stocks Eye Fed Financial Stress Test, Iran Tension

Posted: 26 Jun 2019 11:37 PM PDT

FED STRESS TEST, US DOLLAR FORECAST, IRAN TENSION – TALKING POINTS

Markets will be eyeing result of Fed annual bank stress test
Investors are nervously watching for signs of systemic risks
Iran is set to exceed its legally-mandated uranium stockpile

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

CORPORATE DEBT POSING RISK TO FINANCIAL MARKETS?

Ever since market participants started pricing in – what some might call an excessive amount – of rate cut bets, the US Dollar has suffered and broken through 13-month rising support. However, the results of the Fed's annual stress test may be a boon for the US Dollar if the central bank reveals that the financial system is more vulnerable than expected. Amid the prospective risk aversion, USD would likely catch a haven bid.

Conversely, if the results show strong resilience, it could push equities higher at the expense of the Greenback. However, it remains worth noting that politicians and Fed officials have expressed concern about rising corporate debt. The proliferation of collateralized loan obligations and reduced underwriting standards is becoming an ever-increasing risk that threatens the stability of the financial system.

Since the Great Recession in 2008 and the subsequent implementation of a loose-credit regime via lower rates and QE, global equity markets have surged to such a degree that analysts believe it may be a bubble. Using the iBoxx USD Leveraged Loan index – composed of "approximately 100 of the most liquid, tradable leveraged loans" – shows that since 2009 the market for this kind of debt has exploded.

IRAN TENSION PROJECTED TO ESCALATE

Today, Iran is set to officially breach the legal parameters outlined in the 2015 nuclear agreement by exceeding the limit of permissible stockpiles of uranium. Tehran also threatened to increase the enrichment purity beyond the legally-stipulated 3.67 percent limit. Not only doing this increases what are already high tensions with the US, but it also hurts Europe who may endure yet another blow to their diplomatic relationships.

Washington and Brussels have been at odds with each other when it came to policy towards Iran. The former shredded the deal while the latter wanted to preserve it and even created a Special Purpose Vehicle that circumvented US sanctions. The measure was created as a way to try to mitigate the economic impact of the US embargo and thereby incentivize Tehran to hold up its end of the bargain. It appears the efforts are futile.

Europe's stimulative measures are practically inconsequential when compared to the severity and economic contraction caused by US sanctions. The divergence in policy toward Iran put the US and EU at odds and even led to threats by Washington of imposing sanctions against Brussels for their cooperation with Iran. While attempting to lead with diplomacy, Europe has found itself holding the short end of the stick with both parties.

CHART OF THE DAY: IS GROWING CORPORATE DEBT, LEVERAGED LOAN MARKET THREATENING FINANCIAL STABILITY?

FX TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

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2019-06-27 06:30:00

Stocks Rise on US-China Trade Truce? INR at Risk, Trump Eyes India

Posted: 26 Jun 2019 10:24 PM PDT

Asia Pacific Markets Talking Points

US-China trade truce bets bolster Nikkei 225, Yen sinks
Trump turns trade war eye to India, INR risks weakening
US Dollar appears to be heading for near-term reversal

Find out what retail traders' equities buy and sell decisions say about the coming price trend!

The US Dollar, US government bond yields and equities traded higher during Thursday's Asia Pacific trading session. This followed reports from the South China Morning Post (SCMP) that the United States and China reached a "tentative truce" ahead of the G20 Summit in Japan.

The report went on to say that additional tariffs are anticipated to be delayed as markets eye a meeting between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping scheduled for June 29 at 2:30 GMT. The Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite rallied 0.94% and 0.89% respectively.

As markets rejoiced the potential for de-escalation in tensions between the world's largest economies, Trump turned his focus to India. He threatened Prime Minister Narendra Modi to withdraw recently raised tariffs against the US, opening the door to weakness in the Rupee.

How Far Can US-China Trade Truce Boost Stocks?

S&P 500 futures are pointing cautiously higher, opening the door to gains in equities during the European and US trading sessions. While there may be near-term strength to be had in stocks should US-China trade tensions cool, keep in mind that this may also impact the Fed's outlook.

As we are seeing in rising bond yields, bets of a trade truce could lessen the haste for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. A realization that cheaper credit conditions could be taken off the table could sink stocks and boost demand for liquidity havens such as the US Dollar.

Still, the central bank has mentioned that they are closely monitoring economic data. That turns the attention for equities to the final estimate of US first quarter GDP ahead. A softer outcome could fuel weakness in the S&P as we saw with disappointing durable goods orders yesterday.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

The US Dollar seems to be setting course for a reversal to the former rising trend line from September 2018. This follows a test of range support between 95.74 and 95.95. If 96.86 is breached, that threatens the near-term downtrend in DXY.

DXY Daily Chart

Charts Created in TradingView

FX Trading Resources

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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2019-06-27 05:00:00

NZDUSD Rate Breaks Out of Monthly Opening Range Following RBNZ

Posted: 26 Jun 2019 08:34 PM PDT

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZDUSD stands at risk for a larger correction following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting as the central bank appears to be in no rush to implement lower interest rates.

NZDUSD Rate Breaks Out of Monthly Opening Range Following RBNZ

The reaction to the RBNZ meeting keeps the topside targets on the radar as NZDUSD clears the monthly opening range, and it seems as though the central bank will stick to the sidelines at the next rate decision on August 7 as the committee notes that "domestic GDP growth had held up more than projected in the March 2019 quarter."

In turn, NZDUSD may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year as the RBNZ reverts back to a wait-and-see approach, but Governor Adrian Orr and Co. appear to be on track to further insulate the economy as "members agreed that more support from monetary policy was likely to be necessary."

Image of RBNZ interest rate

It seems as though the RBNZ will retain a dovish forward guidance as "the Committee agreed that the risks to achieving its consumer price inflation and maximum sustainable employment objectives are tilted to the downside," with the New Zealand Dollar at risk of facing headwinds over the coming months as officials insist that "a lower OCR may be needed over time."

With that said, the broader outlook for NZDUSD remains tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the upward trends carried over from 2018, but recent price action raises the risk for a larger correction as the exchange rate breaks out of the monthly opening range following the failed attempt to test the 2019-low (0.6482).

NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart

NZDUSD may continue to retrace the decline from the April-high (0.6837) as the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6490 (50% expansion) to 0.6520 (100% expansion) offers support, with the exchange rate breaking out of the descending channel carried over from the same period.
The break above the 0.6600 (23.6% retracement) to 0.6630 (78.6% expansion) area brings the 0.6710 (61.8% expansion) to 0.6740 (23.6% expansion) region on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.6780 (100% expansion) to 0.6790 (50% expansion).

Additional Trading Resources

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Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

2019-06-27 03:30:00

USD/JPY Downtrend Dominates But Could Face Near-Term Test

Posted: 26 Jun 2019 07:56 PM PDT

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis Talking Points:

USD/JPY is still under clear pressure
However, USD bulls have managed to resist further falls
Whether they can build a base around current levels is a key question

Join our analysts for live, interactive coverage of all major Japanese economic data at the DailyFX Webinars. We'd love to have you along.

The Japanese Yen remains dominant over the US Dollar with USD/JPY's long daily chart downtrend channel still very much respected.

That channel has been in place since the peaks of late April. The Greenback has managed to tick higher in recent sessions. Moreover, on Thursday it was reported that Donald Trump will meet President Xi Jinping on Saturday in Osaka, where both leaders will be for the Group of 20 summit meeting. This prospect seems to have given risk appetite a broad lift, with investors hoping that here will be at least some opportunity to get vexed trade talks back on track.

So much for the fundamentals. Technically, USD/JPY bulls will probably need to break above the current channel top of 108.05 and keep the rate above that if they are to try and release some of the recent pressure.

It's worth pointing out that that channel top has been respected to the upside quite clearly, so any clear upside break would be a significant statement of intent from those bulls. However the Dollar is essentially back to lows we haven't seen against the Yen since early April, 2018 on its daily chart, if we tune out the 'flash crash' lows of January this year.

The pair bounced this month very close to the 106.77 level. Probably not at all coincidentally that is also the fifth, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the rise up from the lows of March 2018 to the peaks of October the same year. They haven't been topped since. It's probable then that this level is extremely significant and that any fall through it confirmed by a weekly or monthly close is likely to put focus on complete retracement. That would take the pair all the way back to 104.64.

The Australian Dollar meanwhile has managed to pull itself up at last above the long downtrend which had previously capped the AUD/JPY market since mid-April. Fundamentally this action is probably rooted in AUD/USD strength, with markets moving to price in lower US interest rates even as Australia's authorities seem to be wavering a little when it comes to big domestic reductions.

It will be interesting to see whether the Aussie can retain this poise against the Japanese unit beyond month end. If it can then the last significant peak will be back in play. That's June 9's 76.06. Conversely and slide back below the downtrend line will put the year's lows back in uncomfortable focus for Aussie bulls who still have much to prove.

Japanese Yen Resources for Traders

Whether you're new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There's our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There's also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they're all free.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

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2019-06-27 02:06:00

NZD Slips As ANZ Survey Shows Business Confidence Hit Again

Posted: 26 Jun 2019 06:41 PM PDT

New Zealand Dollar, Australian and New Zealand Bank Business Confidence Survey, Talking Points:

ANZ's confidence measure fell to -38.1
This was much worse than the previous -32.0 and extends a long negative run
NZD/USD took a hit but remains well supported

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the New Zealand Dollar's prospects right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page.

The New Zealand Dollar headed lower Thursday as a snapshot of domestic business confidence weakened once again.

The index from Australia and New Zealand Bank (ANZ) came in at minus 38.1, for June, worse than the minus 32 print seen in May

This indicator has long been a source of anxiety to economic policymakers in New Zealand, having been stuck in negative gloom since the end of 2017. Obviously uneasy businesses don't make big investment or hiring decisions, with lack of confidence acting as a major economic drag.

The overall activity marker was lower too, coming in at 8 when it had been 8.5 in the previous month.

NZDUSD slipped on the release, although overall risk appetite (which usually supports the Kiwi) may have been boosted just before the data by reports that Donald Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Saturday in Osaka at the Group of 20 leaders' summit.

The currency pair remains well supported on its broader daily chart after an impressive run of gains. Most of those came as a result of general US Dollar weakness as global markets have moved to price in lower interest rates from the US Federal Reserve.

For its part the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its own monetary settings alone this month, so that the Official Cash Rate remained at the 1.50% record low in place since June. It did say, however that lower rates may be necessary in the months ahead, but its statement was clearly less dovish than the market and NZDUSD continued to gain.

Technically speaking NZ bulls are probably now eying mid-April's peaks in the 0.6775 region. However the charge higher has been quite rapid and a period of consolidation may well be in order first.

New Zealand DollarResources for Traders

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

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2019-06-27 01:30:00

BRL, Ibovespa Eye Inflation Data

Posted: 26 Jun 2019 05:26 PM PDT

USDBRL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, PENSION REFORM VOTE, BRAZIL DEBT – TALKING POINTS

Brazilian Real and Ibovespa keenly eyeing FGV inflation data
Will a poor reading fuel more rate cut expectations from BCB?
Timeline for pension reform vote persists as major uncertainty

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

The Brazilian Real and benchmark Ibovespa equity index will be closely watching today's release of the FGV inflation report. Year-on-year price growth is expected to show 6.39 percent print, though it will likely fall short of forecasts due to the economy's persisting weakness. The release of the Copom meeting minutes revealed that inflation expectations remain broadly tepid with expectations of a 75 bp rate cut by year-end.

The main driver of price action in Brazilian markets continues to be President Jair Bolsonaro's pension reforms. Brazil spends over four percent more on pensions than the eight percent average found in almost all OECD countries. The bloated system continues to pose a threat to Latin America's largest economy with fears that unless it is redesigned and written into law, a recession may ensue and put the financial system at risk.

A major source of anxiety for investors is the exact timeline for votes on the pension bill. There is a motion to postpone the committee vote by five days. While the ballot was initially planned for this week, there are speculations that it could be pushed back to Monday, though this may not be a problem according to Brazilian Congresswoman Joice Hasselmann. There is no guarantee investors will necessarily be at ease with a delay.

USDBRL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

After retreating from an 8-month high in May, USDBRL subsequently fell over six percent and may now start trading in a new range between 3.8504-3.8959 (red dotted lines). Prior to this, the pair may temporarily trade sideways within the 3.7935-3.8113 area (yellow dotted lines). However, due to the relative illiquidity of emerging market FX, BRL's moves may be more sporadic relative to its G10 counterparts.

Furthermore, the Real's price action since the election of Bolsonaro has been primarily tied to volatile political developments that continue to roil local financial markets. An increasingly ambivalent global geopolitical backdrop amplifies the unpredictability of the USDBRL's trajectory because there is no telling when a flood of capital may start rushing into the US Dollar as a result of risk aversion.

USDBRL – Daily Chart

BRL TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

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2019-06-27 00:00:00

Yen Sunk on Mnuchin China Trade Deal Comment, USDJPY Downtrend Held

Posted: 26 Jun 2019 04:38 PM PDT

Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin failed to excite markets for G20 talks
USDJPY downtrend remains intact despite best day since April, eyes resistance
Markets anxiously awaiting G20 US trade talks with China and India

Trade all the major global economic data live as it populates in the economic calendar and follow the live coverage for key events listed in the DailyFX Webinars. We'd love to have you along.

Anti-Risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc Underperform

The anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc underperformed against their major counterparts on Wednesday despite a lackluster performance in global stock markets. Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 futures soared during the European trading session as US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who ahead of this week's G20 Summit, said that "we were about 90% of the way" regarding a trade deal with China.

He added that he is "hopeful that we will see a deal" and that Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping "have a close working relationship". Yet, the upside momentum in equities was unable to be maintained and the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 ended the day cautiously lower. Given pronounced weakness in JPY and CHF earlier in the day, they were unable to fully retrace their steps.

This isn't the first time Mr Mnuchin commented about rosy progress in trade talks. Back in April, he noted that the two nations were nearing the final round. Then, Trump went ahead with raising more tariffs on Chinese imports in May. Also, momentum in equities fell apart today as worse-than-expected US durable goods orders crossed the wires, underpinning concerns about the health and vigor of the economy.

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

USDJPY clocked in its best day since April 11, rising over 0.55 percent these past 24 hours. But, the dominant downtrend from April still holds, guided lower by a falling trend line (blue line below). This also follows a break under a rising trend line from June 2016. The pair needs further progress to the upside to argue of a technical reversal. Meanwhile, its recent bottom at 106.78 looks to be psychological support.

USDJPY Daily Chart

*Charts Created in TradingView

Thursday's Asia Pacific Session

S&P 500 futures are little changed, pointing to a mixed start for equities during Thursday's Asia Pacific trading session. A lack of critical economic event risk places the focus for currencies on sentiment. Markets are awaiting the G20 Summit later this week. US President Donald Trump will talk trade with not just China, but also India where USDINR could reverse due to the risk of escalating trade tensions.

FX Trading Resources

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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2019-06-26 23:00:00

Bitcoin Price Plummets $2,000 in Minutes After Failing at Resistance

Posted: 26 Jun 2019 02:47 PM PDT

Bitcoin Price Outlook:

Bitcoin Price Plummets $2,000 in Minutes After Failing at Resistance

Shortly after the close of the US markets, Bitcoin plummeted roughly $2,000 in just 10 minutes as the cryptocurrency fluctuated between two Fibonacci levels. As I warned yesterday, the meteoric rise in price is reminiscent of the crypto mania in late 2017 that saw violent price swings as the coin climbed to $20,000. To that end, current price action is displaying serious signs of mania, as Bitcoin looks to outlast the recent gold price surge.

Bitcoin Price Chart: 1 – Minute Time Frame (June 26) (Chart 1)

The extreme price action has taken the Coinbase exchange offline, stalling orders in a day which experienced the highest trading volume through the exchange since November 20, 2018. Should the remaining orders process before the session ends, Wednesday trading volume could easily post the largest volume since February 6, 2018 when Bitcoin traded around $7,000. Still, the fear of missing out has caused retail traders to pour into the coin.

Bitcoin Price Plummets $2,000 in Minutes After Failing at Resistance

According to IG Client Sentiment Data, retail traders have only increased their exposure to the cryptocurrency despite the seemingly unsustainable climb. Retail trader data shows 72.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.58 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Feb 13 when Bitcoin traded near 3555.35. The number of traders net-long is 5.9% higher than yesterday and 28.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 42.0% higher than yesterday and 64.0% higher from last week.

Bitcoin Price Chart: 1 – Hour Time Frame (June 2019) (Chart 2)

That said, traders hoping to ride the Bitcoin wave will look to negotiate the two Fib levels that resulted in today's price action and will likely have to weather the resurgence of extreme volatility. For support, BTCUSD will enjoy the 50% Fib level around $11,500. The technical landmark stalled Wednesday's plummet, which is an encouraging sign.

On the other hand, the 61.8% Fib at $13,500 is now the price to beat after it delivered a strong blow to bulls. Despite the precipitous 13% decline in the afternoon, Bitcoin is still on pace to close in the green after a quick rebound to $12,000. Across a broader timeframe, sentiment remains similarly intact with the coin boasting a 40% climb in June and a 210% gain in the year-to-date.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

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2019-06-26 21:15:00

Nike Earnings to Influence Dow Jones Index

Posted: 26 Jun 2019 11:36 AM PDT

Dow Jones Index Talking Points:

Stock Market Forecast: Nike Earnings to Influence Dow Jones Index

The Dow Jones surged higher at Wednesday's open following a series of bullish events. The first of which was a surprisingly strong earnings report from semiconductor stock, Micron (MU), which I forecasted would lift the Nasdaq 100. Secondly, a series of optimistic comments from US officials regarding the state of trade negotiations ahead of this weekend's meeting. Together, the developments helped the Dow Jones to drive at resistance near 26,700.

Dow Jones Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January 2019 – June 2019) (Chart 1)

With Thursday fast approaching, the Industrial Average will look for its next catalyst and Nike (NKE) earnings could provide such a spark. Due Thursday after the close, Nike is expected to report earnings of $0.66 a share on $10.16 billion in revenue for the quarter. The retailer has expressed concern regarding the US-China trade war and a notable headwind from a strong US Dollar. Thursday's earnings will likely provide specific metrics on the expected impact of these considerations and given the company's size – price action is likely to spill over into other retail stocks.

Stock Market Forecast: Nike Earnings to Influence Dow Jones Index

That said, the combination of Nike's size and industry result in a relatively subdued earnings implied price move at 5%. Thus, the implied price range for Nike in Friday trading is roughly $79 to $87.50 – with the stock enjoying confluent support around $80. Barring a massive disappointment, the 200-day moving average, ascending trendline and Fib level should refute any attempted moves lower. Follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for more technical and fundamental updates on Nike and other companies during earnings season.

Nike Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (September 2018 – June 2019) (Chart 2)

To the topside, NKE will look to surmount recent swing highs around the round $85 mark and slightly higher around $86.35. Given Nike's weight in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (2.11%), an earnings surprise and drastic price reaction could directly influence the Index – whereas takeaways for industry peers can impact larger swaths of the US equity market as we saw with Micron on Tuesday.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

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2019-06-26 18:30:00