Analyst Articles – Forex News 24

Sterling (GBP) Manages to Continue its Recovery Despite Dismal UK Manufacturing PMI
Crude Oil Price Outlook Remains Fragile
Gold Prices Eye ISM Data as USD Weighs Fed Outlook, Haven Demand
Japanese Yen Outperforms on Rising Trade Tension, Falling US Yields
USD May Rise as Singapore Dollar Falls, Philippine Peso Eyes CPI
CAD at Risk After US-Mexico Trade War Fears Erupted, US Dollar Sunk
Outlook Bolstered as Global Equities Falter, Gold Volatility Rises
How Will Risk Trends and Dollar Fair as Trade Wars Escalate?

Sterling (GBP) Manages to Continue its Recovery Despite Dismal UK Manufacturing PMI

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 02:14 AM PDT

Sterling Talking Points:

The Pound was trading marginally higher against most major currencies
The race to become the new leader of the Conservative party will play a key role on the future of the Pound
Despite a strong month of May for the Dollar as a safe-haven asset, economic outlook downgrades and falling bond yields have put downward pressure on the currency

The Pound continued its recovery in the morning session despite worse than expectedUK Manufacturing PMI figures. EURGBP remained subdued after the release following its 17-pip trading range in the overnight session. The pair was trading around 0.8838 after the release of the data, a strong push from the Pound coming back from the EURGBP high of 0.8875 seen last Friday May 31. The lack of volatility in the Pound points to the markets expecting the figures to be below forecast on the back of the wind down of stockpiling as Brexit is pushed back.

GBPUSD was pushing higher past 1.2640 trying to recover from its continued sell-off throughout the month of May. The pair was trading stronger as increasing belief that the Fed will cut rates by the end of the year brought in the Dollar bears.

The UK IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for the month of May came in at a new 34-month low of 49.4, well below last month's reading of 53.1 and expectations of 52.2. The figure shows the sector is in contraction following increased difficulties in convincing clients to commit to new projects in the month of May. It is the biggest contraction in the industry since the July 2016 reading of 49.1 right on the back of the Brexit referendum. PMIs are considered to be forward-looking estimates of growth with a figure below 50 indicating economic contraction in the market.

UK Services PMI is released on Wednesday with an expectation of an increase from 50.4 in the previous month to 50.6 for the month of May. These figures have a greater potential to impact the Pound as services account for 80% of the UK's economic activity.

Key Events to Look Out For

Sterling will continue to pay close attention to British politics and Brexit as a state visit from Donald Trump is likely to draw attention from the markets. The US President has been increasing his involvement in British politics in the last few weeks as he has shown continued support for hard-line Brexiteers Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson. Mr. Trump is very critical of the UK's divorce deal with the EU, which would leave the UK unable to create any trade deals with non-Europeans until 2021, by which time the next US President will be in office.

The future of the currency will be dependent on the stance on Brexit of future leaders of the Conservative Party. If Mr. Johnson manages to get through the first round of voting in Parliament and is put forward as one of the two remaining candidates, he is likely to win, which would continue to put downward pressure on the Pound as he pledged to take Britain out of the EU on October 31 with or without a deal.

On the Dollar side, focus will shift towards commentary from Federal Resave chairman Jerome Powell who is expected to give his outlook on the Fed policy in an event to take place in Chicago on Tuesday and Wednesday. Despite the Fed continuing to support a wait-and-see stance, markets are now pricing in at least two 0.25% rate cuts by the end of the year. Part of the downgrade in expectations on the future of the US economy is that yield curves have inverted signalling that a recession may be nearing. Of key importance to the Fed's decision on rates will be non-farm payrolls and wages figures to be released on Friday.

Crude Oil Price Chart and Analysis:

Crude oil hits support – will it hold?
Oil looks heavily oversold in the short-term.

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How to Trade Oil: Crude Oil Trading Strategies & Tips.

Crude Oil Slump

The price of a barrel of crude oil fell by over 12% last week as trade fears heightened, undermining global growth concerns. Oil also fell through noted support levels, including the 200-day moving average, which accelerated the move lower and took oil to a five-month low. We warned two-weeks ago that chart support looked weak with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level breached in subsequent days.

Oil has now bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and this may hold in the short-term, unless trade war rhetoric increases. The crude oil chart is also flashing an extreme oversold signal with the CCI indicator at once stage hitting -250, a level not seen since mid-December last year when the price of oil touched $50.0/bbl.

Support on the chart is seen at $60.63/bbl. – the previously mentioned Fibonacci retracement level –ahead of a cluster of highs/lows around the $59/bbl. area. Crude oil will need to consolidate around current levels, or higher, to start rebuilding some confidence in the market, which has fallen nearly 20% in less than six weeks. To the upside, the gap created on last Fridays (May 31) candle between $61.6/bbl. and $64.9/bbl. will be the bulls first target.

Crude Oil Price Collapses Through Key Supports: More to Go?

WTI vs Brent: Top 5 Differences Between WTI and Brent Crude Oil

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – June 3, 2019)

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on crude oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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2019-06-03 08:00:00

Gold Prices Eye ISM Data as USD Weighs Fed Outlook, Haven Demand

Posted: 02 Jun 2019 11:40 PM PDT

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

Gold prices soar as risk aversion stokes Fed rate cut speculation
ISM data now in focus as USD weighs policy outlook, haven flows
Crude oil prices slide as US threatens Mexico with import tariffs

Gold prices shot higher Friday as bond yields dropped in risk-off trade, boosting the appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives. The market mood soured as US President Donald Trump threatened to introduce tariffs on imports from Mexico, which might derail the fledgling USMCA trade pact meant to replace NAFTA.

The US Dollar was unable to find a familiar haven bid amid the turmoil as the move bolstered Fed interest rate cut speculation. That added an anti-fiat element to gold's appeal, helping to drive the metal upward. Cycle-sensitive crude oil prices plunged alongside stocks.

GOLD EYES US ISM DATA AS US DOLLAR WEIGHS FED OUTLOOK, HAVEN FLOWS

Looking ahead, the US manufacturing ISM survey is in focus on the economic calendar. It is expected to show that the pace of factory-sector activity growth held broadly steady in May after hitting an almost three-year low in April.

US economic news-flow has tended to undershoot baseline forecasts in recently, warning a downside surprise. If such a result reinforces a dovish Fed policy bets, it is likely to be gold-supportive. Data warning that the heretofore resilient US economy is succumbing to global headwinds may also hurt overall risk appetite.

An especially bout of de-risking may see liquidity overshadow returns as investors' top priority however, reviving the Greenback's fortunes and capping gold's advance. The response from crude oil is likely to be more straight-forward, with prices falling in step with shares yet again.

Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices thundered past resistance capping gains since late February, challenging the 1303.70-09.12 area. A break above that confirmed on a daily closing basis exposes the 1323.40-26.30 zone next, followed by the February 20 high at 1346.75. A substantive bearish change in prevailing positioning calls for a close below rising trend support set from mid-August 2018, now at 1274.85.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices crashed through support in the 55.37-75 area to target the 50.31-51.33 region next. A daily close below that sets the stage for a decline toward support prevailing since September 2016 in the 42.05-43.00 zone. Alternatively, a move back above 55.75, now recast as resistance, targets the 57.24-88 price band.

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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2019-06-03 06:30:00

Japanese Yen Outperforms on Rising Trade Tension, Falling US Yields

Posted: 02 Jun 2019 10:53 PM PDT

Japanese Yen Talking Points

USDJPY finally snaps the range-bound price action from the previous month, and the Japanese Yen may continue to benefit from the current environment as there appears to be a material change in risk-taking behavior.

Japanese Yen Outperforms on Rising Trade Tension, Falling US Yields

The Japanese Yen outperforms its major counterparts as President Donald Trump tweets that “the United States will impose a 5% tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico,” and the ongoing shift in trade policy may keep USDJPY under pressure especially as U.S.Treasury yields slip to fresh yearly lows.

It remains to be seen if the Federal Reserve will respond to the weakening outlook for global growth as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) insists that 'consumers in the US and China are unequivocally the losers from trade tensions,' and the central bank may start to alter the forward-guidance for monetary policy in an effort to insulate the economy.

Fed Fund futures now show a greater than 90% probability for a December rate-cut, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may come under increased pressure to reestablish its easing cycle as the central bank plans to wind-down the $50B/month in quantitative tightening (QT) over the coming months.

However, the FOMC may find it difficult to abandon the rate hiking cycle as higher tariffs are seen feeding into consumer prices, and Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may continue to project a longer run interest rate of 2.50% to 2.75% at the next quarterly interest rate decision on June 19 as “many participants viewed the recent dip in PCE inflation as likely to be transitory.”

As a result, the FOMC may reiterate that 'if the economy evolved as they expected, the Committee would likely need to firm the stance of monetary policy to sustain the economic expansion and keep inflation at levels consistent with the Committee’s objective,' and the lack of urgency to alter the forward-guidance may heighten the appeal of the U.S. Dollar as it curbs bets for an imminent Fed rate-cut.

Nevertheless, the recent pickup in USDJPY volatility appears to be shaking up market participation, with retail sentiment sitting at an extreme reading.

The IG Client Sentiment Report shows 74.0% of traders are now net-long USDJPY compared to 66.5% last week, with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.85 to 1.In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 3 when USDJPY traded near 111.40 even though price has moved 2.8% lower since then.The number of traders net-long is 3.1% higher than yesterday and 4.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 28.5% lower than yesterday and 25.7% lower from last week.

The drop in net-short position points to profit-taking behavior as USDJPY fails to retain the range-bound price action from the previous month, but the ongoing buildup in net-long interest offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment especially as USDJPY fails to fill the gap from the previous month.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets.

USD/JPY Rate Daily Chart

The USDJPY correction following the currency market flash-crash may continue to unravel as price and the RSI snap the bullish trends from earlier this year, with the break/close below the 108.30 (61.8% retracement) to 108.40 (100% expansion) zone raising the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate.
Next downside area of interest comes in around 106.70 (38.2% retracement) to 107.20 (61.8% retracement) followed by the 105.40 (50% retracement) region.
Recent developments in the RSI suggest the bearish momentum is gathering pace as the oscillator extends the downward trend from the previous month and pushes into oversold territory.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q2 2019 Forecast for the Japanese Yen

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

2019-06-03 05:30:00

USD May Rise as Singapore Dollar Falls, Philippine Peso Eyes CPI

Posted: 02 Jun 2019 08:33 PM PDT

ASEAN Fundamental Outlook

US-Mexico trade war fears fueled Fed rate cut bets as USD fell versus ASEAN FX
Some ASEAN PMI data on tap, with Caixin up as well. PHP eyes Philippine CPI
The Greenback may appreciate versus the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We'd love to have you along.

US Dollar and ASEAN FX Recap

The US Dollar ended this past week little changed, wiping out gains that it accumulated throughout the week in the final moments. Markets priced in higher probabilities of a Fed rate cut by year-end as US President Donald Trump turned his attention towards Mexico, threatening to impose tariffs across the board. Equities sunk as sentiment soured, the S&P 500 had its worst week this year (-2.49%).

The highly-liquid Greenback tuned in on a more-dovish Fed, allowing ASEAN currencies to hold their ground in "risk-off" trade. A notable outperformer was the Indonesian Rupiah. It was bolstered as S&P Global Ratings raised the nation's credit rating to BBB from BBB- while the central bank kept intervening to uphold the currency. The Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index extended gains.

As anticipated, broad weakness in crude oil prices helped to mitigate weakness in the Philippine Peso as the Bangko Sentral np Pilipinas (BSP) warned of further cuts down the road. As the Malaysian Ringgit traded relatively flat, the Singapore Dollar strengthened to its highest point against the US Dollar in over two weeks.

Week Ahead: Asia Pacific PMIs, Philippine CPI Data

The week ahead contains a solid round of Asia Pacific event-risk. In the early stages of the week, regional markets will be weighing May Malaysian and Philippine PMI data after respective Indonesian data clocked in at 51.6 from 50.4. Readings above 50 indicate expansion and confidence could be soured after US-China trade talks recently stalled, creating further uncertainty for global growth.

We will later in the week get Chinese Caixin PMI data which may follow last week's disappointment in official estimates. That may increase worries over global growth. On Wednesday, the Philippine Peso will look to local inflation data where CPI is expected to tick down to 2.9% y/y in May, away from the mid-point of the BSP's target. The roughly 16% drop in oil last month may even cool local inflation further.

External Event Risk

Given how vulnerable markets are with the pickup in volatility, more declines in equities could be in store unless there is a path forward to avoiding an escalation in trade wars. Beijing is reportedly mulling whether or not to ban rare-earth metals to the US. While risk aversion may inspire more Fed rate cut bets, potentially weakening the US Dollar, its status as the world's reserve currency could end up working in its favor.

Given this backdrop, all eyes will turn to a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will be discussing monetary policy strategy on Tuesday. The central bank has stressed a data-dependent approach, with the Fed's preferred measure of inflation cautiously disappointing last week. Though markets seemed to pay more attention to softer University of Michigan sentiment and US-Mexico tariff threats.

On the whole, economic data in the world's-largest economy is still tending to disappoint relative to economists' expectations as of late. This could open the door to downside surprises in US ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data. Keep an eye at too on the jobs report on Friday. In the end, a focus on liquidity may send USD higher against the Malaysian Ringgit and Singapore Dollar.Expect the Bank of Indonesia to step in to tame a selloff in its currency should that be the case.

FX Trading Resources

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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2019-06-03 03:30:00

CAD at Risk After US-Mexico Trade War Fears Erupted, US Dollar Sunk

Posted: 02 Jun 2019 04:12 PM PDT

Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points

Trade all the major global economic data live as it populates in the economic calendar and follow the live coverage for key events listed in the DailyFX Webinars. We'd love to have you along.

US-Mexico Trade War Fears Sink Sentiment

The anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc easily outperformed their major counterparts, benefiting from a bout of risk aversion. This was triggered by US President Donald Trump threatening to impose tariffs on Mexico, potentially opening up a new front on the trade war in addition to China and potentially with Europe. A couple of weeks ago, Mr Trump postponed a decision to impose auto tariffs on the latter.

Due to the unfortunate timing, this raised concerns over the future of ratifying the USMCA, which is the replacement to NAFTA. While acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney noted that the tariffs are "completely separate from trade", top Democrat Nancy Pelosi said that Trump was "sowing chaos" regarding the levies. For the USMCA to be approved, it must pass through the US Congress.

Doubts over the trade deal sapped demand for the Canadian Dollar, and it was the worst-performing major as sentiment-linked crude oil prices capped their worst month (~ -16%) since November. The S&P 500 meanwhile ended the week 2.5% to the downside in its worst 5-day performance this year thus far. Meanwhile, the US Dollar fell as Fed rate cut bets rose, boosting gold prices as anticipated.

Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis

Against the Canadian Dollar, USD underperformed. USD/CAD left behind a Shooting Star candlestick on Friday, which is a sign of indecision. This follows persistent consolidation since the end of April and raises uncertainty over upside follow-through. Negative RSI divergence also warns of ebbing upside momentum. Near-term support appears to be at 1.3469 with resistance at 1.3521.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Monday's Asia Pacific Trading Session

As the new week begins, all eyes will be on how sentiment unfolds and whether or not risk aversion may end up working in the US Dollar's favor given a rate cut from the Fed. China Caixin Manufacturing PMI is up next, but the Australian Dollar may struggle to find follow-through given the proximity of the RBA rate decision where markets are anticipating a cut in early Tuesday trade.

FX Trading Resources

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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2019-06-02 23:00:00

Outlook Bolstered as Global Equities Falter, Gold Volatility Rises

Posted: 02 Jun 2019 01:09 PM PDT

Gold Price Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Bullish

Gold prices turned sharply higher in the last week of May, with gold gaining ground in terms of every major currency.
With risk appetite deteriorating amid rising trade war concerns, sovereign bond yields have dropped around the developed world, creating a fundamentally bullish situation for gold prices: falling real yields.
The IG Client Sentiment Index shows that gold prices could continue to trade higher in the days ahead.

See our long-term forecasts for Gold and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides.

Gold Prices Week in Review

Gold prices had a strong week across the board to finish out May, but it's clear based on both the weekly and monthly performances over various XAU-crosses that risk appetite is continuing to erode. Amid the backdrop of falling global sovereign bond yields and as well as global equity markets, gold prices rose in every major denomination.

Gold in GBP-terms (XAUGBP 2.26%) led the way higher as the British Pound came under renewed pressure around the latest Brexit developments, while gold in CAD-terms (XAUCAD 2.20%) was bolstered by the Canadian Dollar's drop alongside the slide in crude oil prices. Ahead of the upcoming June European Central Bank rate decision, gold in EUR-terms (XAUEUR +1.93%) the third-best performer overall.

Overall, the demand for safe haven currencies is evident even among the gold-crosses: three of the worst performing gold-crosses in the past week were gold in JPY-terms (XAUJPY 0.66%), gold in CHF-terms (XAUCHF 1.51%), and gold in USD-terms (1.59%).

Gold Price Month in Review

The overall performance of gold over the past month was strong, although similar to the last week of May where the safe haven currencies proved to be resilient, the monthly performance among the various denominations illustrates a quickly deteriorating state of global market sentiment.

Only two gold-crosses fell during May, gold in CHF-terms (XAUCHF -0.13%) and gold in JPY-terms (XAUJPY -1.18%). Meanwhile, the currencies hit by central bank rate cut concerns, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, saw gold in AUD-terms (XAUAUD 3.35%) and gold in NZD-terms (3.89%) gain significant ground since the start of May. The best performing gold-cross over the past month was gold in GBP-terms (XAUGBP 4.95%).

Trade War Concerns Swirl with the US at the Center

Global market sentiment has eroded sharply in recent weeks for no reason more significant than the prospect of trade wars initiated by the United States becoming wars of attrition. The US-China trade war appears to have no immediate end in sight as both sides ramp up rhetoric and policy responses; the next week should be noteworthy as the long-threatened 25% tariffs on $200 billion of imported Chinese goods goes into effect.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is proving that he really is a "tariff man" as he has threatened fresh tariffs on Mexico as he seeks to push forth immigration reform efforts along the southern border of the US. Regardless of the efficacy of using tariffs as a tool to negotiate on immigration, the fact is that the Trump administration has shown a willingness to go to places that other US presidential administrations have not, so it's too soon to say if these 'barks' will result in 'bites.'

With trade war concerns around the globe swirling with the US at the center, there has been a steady shift towards safe haven assets like developed countries' sovereign bonds in recent weeks. Amid a stable inflation backdrop, the drop in nominal bond rates like German Bunds, UK Gilts, and US Treasury yields has produced an environment of falling real yields, which is one of the more fundamentally bullish developments that could happen for gold prices. Overall, volatility moving up across asset classes should prove supportive for gold prices as well.

Brexit News Developments Remain Closely Watched

Elsewhere, the UK remains embroiled in domestic political turmoil as the lack of progress on Brexit has ended the tenure of UK Prime Minister Theresa May. While jostling for the next Tory party leader continues as former London mayor and Brexiteer Boris Johnson has emerged as a clear frontrunner, the rise of the Brexit party around the European parliamentary elections has raised concerns that, if there were to be a second referendum for either the (1) EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement, or (2) a no deal, "hard Brexit," the UK electorate might opt for the latter. As hard Brexit concerns rise, so too has gold in GBP-terms (XAUGBP).

Top FX Events in Week Ahead

The upcoming economic calendar is densely populated with significant economic data, meaning that traders will have to contend with event risk beyond the day-to-day developments along the overarching thematic influences like Brexit and trade wars.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is poised to cut rates at its June meeting which may continue to help gold in AUD-terms (XAUAUD), while the preliminary May Eurozone inflation report will underscore the soft growth and inflation environment helping gold in EUR-terms (XAUEUR).

Gold in AUD-terms (XAUAUD) is back in focus on Wednesday with the release of the Q1'19 Australia GDP report, and gold in EUR-terms (XAUEUR) takes center stage again on Thursday during the June European Central Bank meeting.

At the end of the week, gold in CAD-terms (XAUCAD) and gold in USD-terms (XAUUSD) will draw attention with the dual releases of the May Canada jobs report and the May US jobs report.

Gold Futures Positioning Remain Net-Long

Finally, looking at positioning, according to the CFTC's COT for the week ended May 28, speculators increased their net-long Gold positions to 86.7K contracts, up from the 84.6K net-long contracts held in the week prior.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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2019-06-02 19:00:00

How Will Risk Trends and Dollar Fair as Trade Wars Escalate?

Posted: 02 Jun 2019 09:19 AM PDT

Weekly Trading Forecast: How Will Risk Trends and Dollar Fair as Trade Wars Escalate?

AUD/USD Rate Outlook Hinges on RBA Amid Bets for 25bp Rate Cut

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision is likely to shake up the near-term outlook for AUD/USD amid bets for a 25bp rate-cut.

S&P 500 DAX Fundamental Forecast: ECB, NFP and Fed’s Powell in Focus

Sell in May and go away was evident with global indices on the backfoot as trade war tensions escalated. Equity markets will be looking to ECB, NFP and Fed's Powell for a change in fortune.

Japanese Yen Remains Biased Higher But Could Struggle This Week

These are good times for haven assets like the Japanese Yen, but the coming week's events may just see some revival of risk appetite, short term though it will probably be.

US Dollar Biased Higher as Haven Flows Trump Fed Rate Cut Bets

The US Dollar seems biased higher as haven-seeking demand overwhelms Fed interest rate cut speculation amid escalating trade wars.

Euro Nervously Eyes ECB Rate Decision, Turmoil in Italy, Trade Wars

Euro traders will find themselves hot under the collar as the ECB announces its rate decision and will likely revise its growth outlook downward.

2019-06-02 16:00:00