Forex analysis review |
- Technical analysis of weekly chart on EURUSD
- Technical analysis of weekly chart on Gold
- June 7, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- June 7, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- The euro rejoice in the expectation of $1.16
- Pound is waiting for the new British Prime Minister. Who will replace Theresa May?
- Weak NonFarm: the dollar's lifeline was blown away
- The dollar fell into disgrace
- May leaves, and the Brexit case lives: in the EU, they are talking about a new postponement
- Bitcoin analysis for June, 07.2019
- Analysis of Gold for June 07,.2019
- GBP/USD analysis for June 07,.2019
- Weak NFP values will put a lot of pressure on the dollar (we sell or buy EUR/USD and AUD/USD paris based on statistics)
- GBP/USD: plan for the US session on June 7. The inflation forecast did not affect the British pound much
- EUR/USD: plan for the US session on June 7. Traders ignore weak data on the German economy, but in vain
- Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement
- Markets play positive: USD/CAD and USD/JPY pairs are moving in different directions
- Wave analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for June 7. Bears are waiting for strong Nonfarmov
- Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement
- Fed can push the dollar down by reducing the interest rate
- Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY on June 7
- A review of EUR / USD, GBP / USD pairs on 07.06.2019: Do not forget the classics
- Indicator analysis. Daily review for June 7, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair
- Indicator analysis. Daily review for June 7, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair
- EURUSD: Report on the US labor market will keep the US dollar weak and lead to an increase in the euro
| Technical analysis of weekly chart on EURUSD Posted: 07 Jun 2019 01:36 PM PDT EURUSD as we mentioned in previous posts, has most probably made an important long-term bottom around 1.11 and has reversed to the upside. Having broken out of bearish channels, EURUSD pulled back during the week confirming the support at 1.12 and since then has resumed the up trend reversal to end the week near its highest levels.
Red lines - wedge pattern EURUSD has broken the wedge pattern to the upside after bottoming at the important Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8%. EURUSD has broken above recent highs at 1.1260 and is now trading above 1.13. Trend is bullish. Price continues to make higher highs and higher lows and over the next few weeks I expect EURUSD to move towards 1.17. As long as price is above 1.12, any pull back will be seen as a buying opportunity for a move at least towards 1.17. We are now bullish EURUSD. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis of weekly chart on Gold Posted: 07 Jun 2019 01:31 PM PDT Gold price ended the week close to its highest level and to new weekly closing highs, even above February highs. There is very important long-term resistance at $1,350 and it is very worrying the fact that we have bearish divergence signs.
Blue line - major resistance trend line Green line - support trend line Gold price has reached our second target of $1,350-60 area after breaking above $1,288. Gold price has respected the green trend line support and has managed to stay above it. Bulls remain in control of the trend, however we should not ignore the bearish divergence signs in the RSI. Gold price has resistance at $1,350-60 and bulls do not want to see a rejection at current levels. Bulls want to see price break out and above the major resistance trend line. Traders need to be very careful. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| June 7, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 07 Jun 2019 10:27 AM PDT
Since January 19th, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency. Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200 allowing further bullish advancement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15. For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23. Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1175 (a previous weekly bottom which has been holding prices above for a while) On the period between May 17th and 20th, a bearish breakdown below 1.1175 was temporarily achieved. As expected, further bearish decline was expected towards 1.1115. This is where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated bringing the EURUSD pair back above 1.1175. Recently, The EURUSD pair has maintained bullish persistence above the highlighted price level (1.1175). That's why, further bullish advancement was expected towards 1.1235 then 1.1320 which both failed to apply any significant bearish pressure on the EURUSD pair. Recent Bullish breakout above 1.1320 renders it a newly-established demand level to be watched for BUY entries when bearish pullback occurs. Please also note that Bullish persistence above 1.1320 enhances quick bullish advancement towards 1.1420 - 1.1450. On the other hand, re-closure below 1.1320-1.1300 would probably allow another bearish pullback to occur towards 1.1235 where recent price action should be considered. Trade recommendations : A valid BUY entry was suggested around the price levels of (1.1220-1.1235). It's already running in profits. Remaining Target levels to be located around 1.1380. Stop loss should be advanced to 1.1280 to secure some profits. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| June 7, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 07 Jun 2019 09:31 AM PDT
On March 29, a visit towards the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) could bring the GBPUSD pair again towards the upper limit of the minor bearish channel around (1.3160-1.3180). Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850. On April 26, another bullish pullback was initiated towards the price zone of 1.3130-1.3170 where the depicted bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2980-1.3020. Hence, Bearish breakdown below 1.2980 allowed the recent significant bearish movement to occur. Initial bearish Targets were already reached around 1.2900-1.2870 (the backside of the broken channel) which failed to provide any bullish support for the GBPUSD pair. Further bearish decline was demonstrated towards the lower limit of the long-term channel around (1.2700-1.2650) where the GBPUSD pair looked oversold obviously. That's why conservative traders were suggested NOT to consider any SELL signals around those low price levels. As anticipated, bullish breakout above 1.2650 has already been achieved. This enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.2750 which prevented further bullish advancement Temporarily. For the bulls to remain dominant, another bullish breakout above 1.2750 is needed to extend potential bullish targets towards 1.2800 then 1.2890 if sufficient bullish momentum is demonstrated. Otherwise, the GBPUSD would have another bearish visit towards 1.2650 where a better BUY entry will probably be offered (demonstrating a bullish Head & Shoulders reversal pattern). Trade Recommendations: For Intraday traders, A valid BUY entry can be offered upon bullish breakout above 1.2750. T/P level to be located around 1.2820 & 1.2900. S/L should be placed below 1.2690. Conservative traders should wait for an extensive bullish movement towards 1.2870-1.2905 (newly-established supply zone) to look for valid long-term SELL entries. S/L should be placed above 1.2950. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| The euro rejoice in the expectation of $1.16 Posted: 07 Jun 2019 08:32 AM PDT
On Thursday, the euro rose to a 7-week high, as Mario Draghi's rhetoric turned out to be less "dovish" than expected. On Friday, after a slight slide down, the quotes of the main pair rushed up again, and the speed was much stronger than the day before. The catalyst, as expected by the market, was a negative report on employment in the United States, which exerted significant pressure on the dollar. It is expected that by the end of the year, economic growth in the US will slow down, and the EUR/USD pair will rise above the mark of $ 1.16. Note that a strong euro could be the next big risk for Europe's shares. Euro Stoxx components generate almost 60% of their revenue outside the block. If we pay attention to the level of purchasing power parity, which is now $1.37, then the euro is much lower than its equilibrium value. In case of a deterioration of economic prospects in the United States, the Fed will go to the easing of monetary policy, as repeatedly hinted the other day by its representatives. The farther, the stronger becomes the belief of the market in reduced rates. However, not everyone shares the opinion of investors. For example, Fitch still believes that the US Central Bank will not reduce the rate in 2019, as the country's economy will continue to grow. Of course, investments are reduced due to trade wars, their fall is not so catastrophic as to provoke a recession in America, according to the Agency. However, the Fed compared with the ECB can afford to lower rates. As for the European regulator, it seems that it will follow the American path and resort to policy adjustment if the situation requires it. Well, now the Central Bank threw a lifeline in the eurozone in the form of a generous LTRO under -0.4%. Low rates will remain at least until the middle of next year. So far, the ECB does not see the prerequisites for policy easing and remains "optimistic" about the future growth prospects of the economy. Draghi reported an increase in GDP and inflation forecasts for 2019 from 1.1% to 1.2% and from 1.2% to 1.3%, respectively. Of course, the uncertainty due to geopolitics and protectionism leaves its mark on business activity, but this problem is now faced by many countries of the world. Reuters experts predict the growth of the main pair to $1.17 in 12 months. There is a nuance that can confirm the development of such a scenario. We are talking about the limited potential to reduce the yield of government bonds in Germany compared to analogs from the United States. It is expected that the rates on "ten-year" by the end of the year will fall to a historic low of 1.25%, while on German debt securities – from -0.24% to -0.4%. The potential for a decline in the euro is limited, and if not for a new round of trade wars, the EUR/USD pair could be seen at higher levels. In favor of such a statement, the following indicators speak: the growth of German production orders, the improvement of external demand and exports of Germany – this is important for the recovery of the upward trend in the euro. To continue the rally of the single currency, disappointing statistics on American employment in May are needed. In this case, there is already a check mark. Now, we are waiting for the preservation of market participants' faith in the de-escalation of the US-China conflict after the meeting of leaders at the G20 summit. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Pound is waiting for the new British Prime Minister. Who will replace Theresa May? Posted: 07 Jun 2019 08:32 AM PDT
Two weeks have passed since British Prime Minister Theresa May announced her intention to resign. Today, she officially leaves the post of Chairman of the ruling Conservative Party in the country but will continue to serve as head of the Cabinet until her successor is determined. The election of a new Tory leader will be held in several stages. From June 13 to 20, conservative deputies must determine the two finalists, after which their fate will be decided by all party members. The vacant place is now claimed by 11 people. One of the favorites of the race – the former Foreign Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson, who warns about leaving the European Union, if Brussels refuses to negotiate. According to the latest polls, he can get more than 40% of the votes of the same party. However, as the experience of previous internal elections shows, those who are at the top of the list do not always win. On the heels of B. Johnson comes former Brexit Minister Dominique Raab, who is confident that the "hard" Brexit is better than a bad deal. He is followed by acting Minister of the Environment Michael Gove. It is known that on the eve of the referendum in 2016 on the membership of Albion in the EU, he campaigned for withdrawal from the Alliance, arguing that such a step will allow the country to become a beacon of progress for the whole world. Closes this four is Jeremy Hunt, head of the British Foreign Ministry. According to experts, J. Hunt has a serious chance to take the post of Prime Minister, because he is less controversial figure than B. Johnson, and may well unite the conservatives. "I have a plan to implement Brexit. I am sure that we will be able to reach an agreement, finding the right approach to negotiations with the EU, and conclude a deal before the end of October," J. Hunt said. It is expected that the name of the new Tory leader will be known on the 20th of July. It is assumed that the pound is waiting for a few difficult weeks, during which the "hard" Brexit scenario will be taken into account in the quotes. According to experts at Aberdeen Standard Investments, the probability of disordered exit of the United Kingdom from the EU is now 60% compared to 25%, recorded before the moment it became known about the resignation of T. May. Some analysts believe that whoever replaced T. May, with the current composition of the British Parliament, it will be difficult for the new Prime Minister to get support for any decision, and, most likely, Foggy Albion expects new parliamentary elections under the sign of Brexit. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Weak NonFarm: the dollar's lifeline was blown away Posted: 07 Jun 2019 08:32 AM PDT The fears of many experts have been confirmed today: for the first time in a long time, NonFarm "summed up" the dollar, being in the red zone. Almost all components came out worse than expected, reflecting the slowdown in the labor market. Only the unemployment rate remained the same, record-low, 3.6%, but this fact served as a weak consolation for dollar bulls. The unemployment rate does not react so quickly to the current situation – this indicator refers to lagging economic indicators. Therefore, traders had to ignore it, focusing on other components of NonFarm. By and large, traders were ready to reduce the labor market after the publication of an extremely weak report from the analytical agency ADP. According to them, the number of jobs in private US companies increased in may by only 27 thousand (with a growth forecast of 180 thousand) – this is the worst result in the last 9 years. It was a disturbing sign of weak NonFarm. For example, a month ago, the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector increased by 263 thousand (before the revision), while the ADP report showed an increase in the number of employed by 270 thousand. The high level of correlation of these indicators warned market participants that the official figures in May may be much lower than the forecast values. So it happened: instead of an increase of 190 thousand (consensus forecast), the indicator grew by only 75 thousand. The number of employed in the private sector of the economy increased by only 90 thousand, while the forecast was at the level of 174 thousand (previous value – 205 thousand). The share of the economically active population also decreased slightly to 62.8%. In this case, the decline is minimal but still played a role, given the dynamics of other indicators. The inflation component of NonFarm was also disappointed – the level of the average hourly wage. This is the most important indicator for the Fed increased by only 0.2% on a monthly basis and by 3.1% on an annual basis. In monthly terms, it comes out at the same level for the third month in a row, but in annual terms, the indicator fell for the first time since March. Such dynamics also corresponds with the weak growth of key inflation indicators. Core inflation in April remained near zero (0.1% m/m), and in annual terms – about two percent level, showing a downward trend. It is also worth recalling that the basic price index PCE in March rose by 1.6% year-on-year – this is the weakest growth in 14 months. As already noted, the labor market was a reliable tool for the dollar. On the background of fluctuations of other key indicators, NonFarm always supported dollar bulls. Even in February, when the indicator came out at an abnormally low level (+33 thousand), traders "did not believe" the statistics, as it was clearly distorted by numerous strikes of American workers at that time. Now, the situation is radically different. In particular, the US Department of Labor today revised downward and previous figures – all figures were below the forecast of economists (in particular, April data were revised from 263 thousand to 240). In other words, we cannot talk about a temporary and momentary decline (as it was in February) – apparently, we are talking about a negative trend. In addition, traders are concerned about other alarming signals that are harbingers of a slowdown in US GDP. We are talking about weak reports in the areas of the housing market, retail sales, factory orders. All this suggests that the American economy feels all the hardships of the trade war, the pace of which is only gaining momentum. Despite all the assurances of Donald Trump that America is the beneficiary of the situation, the figures suggest otherwise. And the Fed, in turn, will not be able to ignore this fact. Let me remind you that Jerome Powell during his last speech admitted the possibility of a rate cut, although he had previously ruled out such a scenario. I believe that after today's figures, the Fed's rhetoric will soften even more: it will prepare the markets for monetary policy easing. In other words, the data released today will only strengthen rumors that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates in the foreseeable future (most likely in the fall). And this fact will exert background pressure on the dollar throughout the market, including in the pair with the euro. From a technical point of view, the situation is as follows. On the daily EUR/USD chart, the Ichimoku indicator's "Parade of lines" signal operates, and the pair is above the Kumo cloud and on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The first level of support is the upper limit of the cloud, corresponding to the level of 1.1280. The main resistance level is at 1.1420 – this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart, coinciding with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud. If the rate of growth of the pair will continue next week, then achieving the above resistance level will be only a matter of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Jun 2019 08:30 AM PDT The two leading central banks of the world exchanged curtsies, after which a weak report on US employment allowed the "bulls" on EUR/USD to inflate quotes to a 10-week high. It is so briefly possible to sum up the first week of summer on Forex. Indeed, the statements of Lael Brainard, Jerome Powell, and John Williams that if the macroeconomic situation deteriorates in the States, the Fed will have to adjust monetary policy, hit the US dollar hard. In contrast to the beginning of the year, when the testimony of the derivatives market was contrary to the statements of FOMC officials, in May-June, everything changed. The Central Bank seriously thought about lowering the rate, and disappointing statistics on the labor market only added fuel to the fire of correction of the USD index. In May, employment outside the agricultural sector grew by a modest 75 thousand, which is worse than the average for January-April (190 thousand), and forecasts of Bloomberg experts (185 thousand). The effects of the US government shutdown in late 2018 are finally beginning to manifest themselves, however, this is not the only reason for the slowdown of the indicator. If we consider its structure, the main problems are related to the production sphere. It is he who feels the greatest negative consequences of trade wars. Donald Trump's protectionism strikes not only the global but also the American economy, forcing the Fed to think about the weakening of monetary policy. This circumstance, paired with the increased risks of recession, forces investors to buy bonds. At the end of the week, by May 31, the inflow of net capital into debt-oriented high investment grade ETF funds reached a historic high of $18.5 billion. The yield of 10-year US securities fell to its lowest level since 2017 and, according to Commerzbank, will fall to 1.25% by the end of this year. Rates on German bonds will not fall so seriously that will narrow the yield differential and will contribute to the growth of EUR/USD. Dynamics of the yield of US bonds For a long time, the market has grabbed the US dollar with two hands and now intends to sell it. Against this background, the ECB's attempts to drown the euro look like a waste of time. Mario Draghi at a press conference following the June meeting of the Governing Council made every effort to save the "bears" on EUR/USD: he hinted at a rate cut and resuscitation of the asset purchase program. It did not help. Investors are well aware of the pain caused by negative rates to European banks. As for QE, if it did not produce results in the form of achieving the inflation target of 2% earlier, why should it be effective now? In my opinion, the market still hopes for the de-escalation of the conflict between the US and China after the meeting of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit, believes that the current tariffs will soon be canceled, which will have a positive impact on the economies of China and the Eurozone. Technically, the expanding wedge pattern was activated on the EUR/USD daily chart. Pullbacks in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave allowed to form a long position. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| May leaves, and the Brexit case lives: in the EU, they are talking about a new postponement Posted: 07 Jun 2019 08:30 AM PDT Today, Theresa May is leaving the post of leader of the Conservative Party, fulfilling her promise, announced at the end of May. However, for the time being, she has lost only her political position – until the moment when her successor is determined, May will serve as the acting Prime Minister of Britain. The pound played this fact two weeks ago, so today it calmly and phlegmatically reacted to predictable changes. Traders are now concerned about another question: who will replace May and how will he (or she) build relations with Brussels, taking into account the coming "X hour" on October 31? Despite the summer period, the political struggle is in full swing, although the election campaign will officially begin only three days after the resignation of the Prime Minister from the post of leader of the ruling party, that is, on June 10. Nevertheless, there are already unconditional favorites of the political race and obvious outsiders. Among the first – Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab. They take a rather tough position on further relations with Europe and allow the option of "hard" Brexit. In addition, they oppose the extension of the negotiation period after October 31. In particular, Johnson has repeatedly stated in his speeches that the country will, in any case, withdraw from the Alliance on the last day of October – with or without a deal. This fact has a strong background pressure on the GBP/USD pair – even taking into account the weakening dollar, the price fluctuates in the range of 25-27 figures. However, the question of a possible (next) delay is being discussed now, despite Johnson's categorical stance on this matter. Both in Europe and Britain understand that the most likely candidates for the Prime Minister's post are not ready to make significant concessions to Europeans, while the Europeans themselves refuse in principle to revise the terms of the agreed deal. That is, in the autumn, the situation will again go into a political impasse, where there are two ways out: either a hard Brexit or a new delay. Johnson's pre-election bragging about being ready for a chaotic scenario can be replaced by a certain caution when it comes directly to the implementation of this option. Theresa May once say in the same way that "the absence of a deal is better than a bad deal", but in the end, she did not dare to send the country down the slope by hard Brexit. And there are not so many "hawks" in the Parliament who are ready to admit such an option – the results of the signal votes that were held at the beginning of this year, eloquently testify to this. That is why experts are now discussing a burning question: how long will Britain be in limbo, and how long the European Union agrees to tolerate the British under its wing. According to the British press, most EU governments believe that Britain should leave the Alliance no later than June 2020. This is due to the fact that next summer, the EU will discuss a 7-year budget plan. Until January 1, 2021, all key authorities of the European Union must finally accept and approve this document. However, not all EU countries are ready to provide such a long delay. Initially, the Germans opposed this option. Members of the Bundestag said that Germany will veto another Brexit delay if Britain does not hold a general election or a second referendum. Immediately, it is worth noting that neither Johnson nor Raab will not agree to the implementation of this ultimatum. Another country of the European Union – France – voiced the same conditions, however, in a somewhat veiled form. French President Emmanuel Macron recently said that the deadline is the deadline for the implementation of Brexit, and he personally opposed the provision of any new delays. Here, it should be emphasized that such harsh public statements by politicians of the first-tier cannot be taken at face value. Such threats and ultimatums have been heard before. The purpose of this rhetoric – to spur British politicians to action and increase the pressure on them. Although in fact, the British and Europeans believe hard Brexit to be "economic suicide". So, according to one influential British newspaper, in fact, the European Union is ready to give London a new delay if the British authorities cannot approve the terms of the transaction until October 31. As assured journalists of their information sources, at least 25 EU member states agree to provide the country with such an opportunity. This publication today provided support to the British currency – the GBP/USD pair was able to gain a foothold in the 27th figure. Although the information is unofficial, the market decided that "there is no smoke without fire". By the way, such rumors find a response among British politicians. In particular, the candidate for the post of leader of the Conservative party (and thus the Prime Minister) Michael Gove yesterday told Cabinet members that he was ready to postpone Brexit from October this year until the end of next year. Gove is not a favorite of the political race, so the pound actually ignored his words. But if such an idea is expressed by Boris Johnson (or Raab), the British currency will get a reason for a more significant correction – up to the level of 1.2860, where the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart coincides with the Kijun-Sen line. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin analysis for June, 07.2019 Posted: 07 Jun 2019 07:05 AM PDT BTC has been trading upwards and it started to establish the short-term uptrend. Our advice is to watch for buying opportunities.
Smaller white lines – Bullish flag (broken) Larger white line – Resistance trendline (broken) Gray rectangle – Resistance and upward objective We found strong push and new momentum on the upside on the MACD indicator, which is sign of the strong demand. Most recently, there was breakout of the 30M bullish flag and rejection of the middle Bolinger band, which is great sign of the upward continuation. Support levels are found at $7.880 and $7.777. Projected upward target is set at the price of $8.280. We recorded the new momentum on the MACD oscillator and flip up on Stochastic, which are great signs for further upward continuation. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis of Gold for June 07,.2019 Posted: 07 Jun 2019 06:54 AM PDT Gold has been trading upwards exactly like we expected. The price tested the level of $1.344. The momentum is still very strong and we expect more upside to come. Watch for buying opportunities.
White lines – Trading range with the resistance at $1.344 Red horizontal line– Projected upward target in case of the upward break We found strong push and new momentum on the upside on the MACD indicator, which is sign of the strong demand. The Gold didn't have power for any larger downward correction, which is another sign of the underlying strength on the Gold. Daily support level is found at the price of $1.324 Projected target is set at the price of $1.361. Watch for buying opportunities on the potential break of $1.344. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD analysis for June 07,.2019 Posted: 07 Jun 2019 06:41 AM PDT GBP/USD did trade strong upward after the Non-Farm employment change numbers. We see potential new push up till end of the day. Watch for buying opportunities.
Gray rectangle – support 1.2726 Red middle line – Middle of the Bolinger band Yellow lines – Fibonacci expansion (resistance levels) We found strong push and new momentum on the upside on the MACD indicator, which is sign of the strong demand. The middle of the Bolinger Bands seems like a good support to establish new long posiitons (1.2730). Projected targets are set at the price of 1.2758, 1.2780 and 1.2813. Watch for buying opportunities. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 07 Jun 2019 06:04 AM PDT The final decision of the ECB on monetary policy was to maintain the level of interest rates and the determination to start a program of targeted long-term lending to banks TLTRO-3 in September of this year. First, on this news, the single currency received significant support in tandem with the US dollar but then retreated when it became known that the regulator intends to extend the current monetary rate not until the end of this year, as previously thought. But, it should be before the end of at least the first half of 2020. In addition, it was decided that in a critical situation that the ECB could go for a new rate cut. In fact, assessing the outcome of the meeting of the European regulator, we can say that he will continue to make attempts to stimulate inflation growth by any available means. As for the important event of today, this will be the publication of data from the US labor market. According to the presented consensus forecast, it is expected that the US economy received 185,000 new jobs in the non-agricultural sector last month against the April value of 263,000. The unemployment rate should maintain its previous value of 3.6%. In addition to these important data, the average hourly wage will also be released, which is expected to grow by 0.3% in May against a 0.2% increase in April. Expecting a possible market reaction to economic statistics from the United States, we note that the market currently assumes that the Fed will have to start lowering interest rates this year in the wake of large-scale trade wars that Donald Trump initiated and the risk of a slowdown in the growth of the American economy. Some of Fed members and the manager Jerome Powell himself have already hinted at this at length. This means that weaker values of indicators will be perceived as a signal to buy risky assets and to dollar sales since they will force the regulator to take precisely these monetary mitigation measures. Summing up, we note that a noticeable decrease in the number of new jobs may cause a strong weakening of the dollar and stimulate growth in demand for companies' stocks and not only in the US. Forecast of the day: The EUR/USD pair is trading above 1.1255, pending the publication of US employment data. If they turn out to be higher than the forecast, we should expect a breakthrough of the level of 1.1250-55 and a fall in the price to 1.1180. In this case, the pair will realize the "double top" reversal pattern. However, if the values turn out to be noticeably below expectations, this will stimulate the growth of the pair. It will rush to the local maximum of 1.1350 and then to 1.1400. The AUD/USD pair forms a pennant shape, from which the price can break both up and down, based on employment data in America. Negative values will lead to an increase in prices to 0.7025, while positive to its fall towards 0.6935.  |
| Posted: 07 Jun 2019 05:07 AM PDT To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Trading remained in a narrow side channel in the morning, and the inflation forecast in the UK allowed the bulls to get above the middle of the channel of 1.2705. While trading over this range, the demand for GBP/USD will remain, which may lead to an update of the maximum of 1.2739. However, going beyond this range will be possible only after a weak report on the US labor market, which is expected in the afternoon. The breakout of 1.2739 will lead to the level of 1.2770 and 1.2800, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the downside scenario, support will be provided at 1.2668 and 1.2644. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: Sellers of the pound will expect a return to the level of 1.2705, which will increase the pressure on the pair and lead to a decrease in the support area of 1.2668, and then to an update of the minimum of 1.2644, where I recommend taking the profits. If the demand for the pound continues after the report on the US labor market, it is best to open short positions on a false breakout from the resistance of 1.2739 or on a rebound from a larger maximum of 1.2770. Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt of bulls to build a new upward trend. Bollinger Bands The breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator leaves the market on the side of the pound buyers. Description of indicators
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| Posted: 07 Jun 2019 05:06 AM PDT To open long positions on EURUSD, you need: Today, reports were published that showed a slowdown in the German economy, but buyers of the euro are not particularly confused. Bulls still need to get to the resistance level of 1.1273, which will lead EUR/USD to the highs of 1.1304 and 1.1336, where I recommend fixing the profit. However, the whole emphasis will be shifted to the report on the US labor market, which can further strengthen the position of the European currency to the highs of 1.1358 and 1.1388. In the scenario of the euro decline in the afternoon, it is best to return to the long positions in the euro on the rebound from the low of 1.1200. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need: Sellers ignored the weak statistics on Germany and are still standing on the sidelines, waiting for data on the US labor market. An unsuccessful breakout and a return to the level of 1.1273 will be the first signal to open short positions in the euro, the purpose of which will be the support of 1.1241 and 1.1200, where I recommend taking the profits. However, good data will strengthen the bearish sentiment in the euro, which will lead to an update of the low of 1.1163. In the scenario of further growth of EUR/USD above 1.1273, you can look at the short positions on the rebound from the resistance of 1.1336, as surely the level of 1.1304 will be broken from the third time. Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the uncertainty of the market before important data. Bollinger Bands Volatility plummeted before an important report. Description of indicators
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| Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement Posted: 07 Jun 2019 03:44 AM PDT For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 102 points, resulting into a large amplitude of oscillation, which is not so common. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that after a brief recovery, the quotation again shot at the range of 1.1300, where, according to the regularity, resistance was found. Looking at the trading chart in general terms, we see that due to the recent V-shaped oscillation, the quotes have appeared relatively new boundaries in the form of the current level of 1.1300, the same ceiling at 1.1210 bottom in the form of clusters in earlier periods. The focus of the entire news background, no doubt, was the ECB meeting followed by a press conference. The day before the event, in narrow circles of bank analysts, the topic of a possible resumption of the quantitative easing program, as well as a reduction in the interest rate, was actively discussed. The day has come "X", Mario Draghi comes out and declares that the key rate will remain at the current level until at least mid-2020, but the ECB's action plan remains the same. Naturally, disappointed traders with short positions began to draw a chamber, limited to the level of 1.1300. Mario Draghi, in turn, added that the board raised the issue of reducing the rate and resuming the quantitative easing program, but this is only at the review stage, and the ECB is currently following the initial plan of action. Today, the key event of the day is the report of the United States Department of Labor, which will publish data on changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector in May, where it was predicted that 185 thousand new jobs were created in comparison with the previous period of 263 thousand. Recall that ADP report was published on Wednesday, and there we saw a significant decline. The current data may be even worse. As a result, the dollar may again be under pressure. The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar begins, to put it bluntly, with a day off in Europe, Germany celebrates the national holiday "Spirit Day". In terms of statistical data, The week is rather modest. The most interesting events are shown below ---> Monday, June 10 United States 14:00 UTC+00 - Number of vacancies in the JOLTS labor market (Apr): Prev. 7.488M ---> Forecast 7.240M Tuesday, June 11 United States 13:45 UTC+00 - Producer Price Index (PPI) (y / y) (May): Prev. 2.2% ---> Forecast 2.0% Wednesday, June 12 United States 12:15 UTC+00 - Basic Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (May): Prev. 2.1% Friday, June 14 United States 12:30 UTC+00 - Volume of retail sales (m / m) (May): Prev. 3.1% These are preliminary and subject to change. Further development Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that at this time there is another rollback from the level of 1.1300 with a deceleration within the value of 1.1265, a point of the previously passed mid-term outset. It is likely to assume a temporary talk about the current coordinate, where the main movement will go at the time of publication of statistics from the United States. Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them: - Positions for the purchase is considered in the case of a clear price fixing higher than 1.1300. - Sell positions are considered in case of price fixing lower than 1.1250, with a primary perspective of 1.1210. Indicator Analysis Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short term have changed their interest from ascending to descending against the background of rollback. Intraday and mid-term perspectives maintain an upward interest against the background of recent jumps. Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year. (June 7 was based on the time of publication of the article) The current time volatility is 22 points. Volatility can be accelerated by data from the United States. Key levels Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100. Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1.0850 **. * Periodic level ** Range Level The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Markets play positive: USD/CAD and USD/JPY pairs are moving in different directions Posted: 07 Jun 2019 03:33 AM PDT On Friday morning, markets continue to trade in the green zone, playing a positive from several directions at once. The ECB spoke more optimistically than predicted. Mario Draghi expressed confidence in raising inflation to the target level and not giving any hints about the possibility of a new phase of quantitative easing. Mexico is ready to give in to US pressure, which led to the possibility of a pause in the maintenance of new tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump will make a decision on China only after the G20 summit, where direct negotiations with PRC head X will be held. The US trade deficit fell slightly in April. However, the dynamics continue to be negative as the balance is kept from falling only by reducing oil and oil products to almost zero in the overall import structure. Minus this figure, the overall balance is confidently moving in the direction of about one trillion dollars per year and no emergency measures by the Trump administration to increase the revenue side by increasing incoming tariffs have no effect. The incoming data on the labor market indicate that it is not necessary to expect positive figures in the May report today. Meanwhile, the number of new and repeated applications for unemployment is not decreasing and the ADP report turned out to be a failure. As for the final data on the cost of labor in Q1, it turned out to be worse than the preliminary ones. Everything points to the fact that the state of the labor market at least does not improve and any negative will add points to the piggy bank of bears waiting for two cuts in the current year due to the rapid cooling of the US economy. USD/CAD pair The situation in the manufacturing sector in Canada continues to deteriorate. The PMI Markit index in May fell from 49.7p. to 49.1p, reaching the lowest value in the last 3.5 years. Production is declining against the background of the sharpest drop in new orders since December 2015. The growth in prices for raw materials has slowed to the lowest level in the last 4 years. Markit attributes the fall in the index to the deterioration in world trade since the decline in oil prices in the reports has not yet been reflected, which in turn, suggests that the result of June may turn out to be even worse. The Canadian industry is experiencing the negative impact of the new tariffs, which were pushed through by the United States as part of the "renewal" of relations with Canada and Mexico in return for the NAFTA agreement. New tariffs have increased the costs of manufacturers, which ultimately affects the deterioration of the output conditions for buyers and reduced new orders. The latest data indicate a deterioration in the business environment in all the regions where the survey was conducted. Meanwhile, the Ivey index, which tracks activity in all sectors of the economy, remained at the same level of 55.9p in May. This indicates growth in other sectors of the economy, primarily in the services sector. The Bank of Canada will hold its monetary policy meeting only in a month. They did not announce the possibility of reducing the rate from the current 1.75%, thus, there is no direct threat to the loony from this side. Rather, we need to monitor the dynamics of oil prices and the state of the labor market. Today, the May report will be published simultaneously with the US report. The forecast is neutral but a slight increase in the number of employees is expected. Hence, the response of the Loonie will depend entirely on US data. The USD/CAD pair is in a downtrend and the likely increase to 1.3380/85 can be used for sales with the target of 1.3280/90. USD/JPY pair The Japanese yen has expectedly strengthened since the end of April, as the growth of panic attitudes caused by the complications in the US-China trade negotiations led to an increase in demand for defensive assets. Macroeconomic data is generally not in favor of the yen as the household spending in April fell to 1.3% y/y and the average wages fell by 0.1%. Both indicators indicate that chronic problems with inflation are far from being resolved. At the same time, the decline in oil prices will strengthen the position of the yen and support the falling Nikkei and the weakening this week is likely to be short-lived. The USD/JPY growth is limited by the channel border at 108.90/109.05. Probably, the resumption of decline with a view to 107.00 / 20 since there are still no objective reasons for the decline in demand for protective assets. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Wave analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for June 7. Bears are waiting for strong Nonfarmov Posted: 07 Jun 2019 02:32 AM PDT EUR / USD Yesterday's trading day for the EUR / USD pair unexpectedly ended with an increase of 55 basis points. Although the rhetoric of Mario Draghi left much to be desired, all market expectations boiled down to the fact that the Eurocurrency, with such an attitude, the head of the European regulator will fall again. However, the euro was in demand among traders, which led to an update of the previous day's high. Thus, the current wave counting still implies a decline in the euro / dollar instrument within wave 5, but wave 4 takes on a rather unambiguous view. The news background is now difficult to call supporting any particular currency, since the latest news from America was very weak, but the European Central Bank did not particularly pleased the markets. Thus, the news background can now be called neutral. Today, it can shift in favor of the American currency, if the afternoon reports are planned for the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector. Unemployment and wages will exceed the forecast values. Although, in fact, the markets are waiting for more negative statistics, which may cause additional demand today for Eurocurrency, and the wave pattern in this case can be transformed. Purchase goals: 1.1278 - 50.0% Fibonacci 1.1317 - 61.8% Fibonacci Sales targets: 1.1106 - 0.0% Fibonacci General conclusions and trading recommendations: The euro / dollar pair has presumably completed the construction of the correctional wave 4. Thus, I recommend now to start cautious sales of the pair with targets under the 11th figure, based on the construction of wave 5 of the downward trend segment. I recommend placing limit orders above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, a breakthrough of which will indicate the pair's readiness to build an upward trend section. GBP / USD On June 6, the GBP / USD pair literally gained a few basis points, and without having managed to update the previous peak, which is now interpreted as wave 2, in p. In any case, if the market fails to update the peak of May 27, the chances of resuming the construction of a downward trend section will increase many times. Today, the situation on the instrument pound / dollar should be clarified. In the afternoon, the markets will be immersed in a study of statistics from America regarding unemployment, wages and nonfarms. These are potentially very strong reports, so markets are unlikely to ignore them. The power of these reports can bring traders back to a dollar. But on the subject of Brexit, there are no news. The pound sterling is still very restrained in responding to encouraging news that do not come from the UK. Sales targets: 1.2554 - 200.0% Fibonacci 1.2360 - 261.8% Fibonacci Purchase goals: 1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci General conclusions and trading recommendations: The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument suggests a resumption of the instrument decline within the estimated wave c. Thus, now, I recommend waiting for a breakout level of 200.0% and selling the pound with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2360 and 1.2176, which corresponds to 261.8% and 323.6% in Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 200.0% mark could lead to the completion of the construction of the downward trend, but so far, there is no confirmation of this assumption. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement Posted: 07 Jun 2019 01:48 AM PDT Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a volatility of 72 points, having as a result an amplitude with previously set boundaries. From the point of view of technical analysis, we saw another touch of the local maximum on May 27 (1.2746 - Max correction to H4), where the quotation, by regularity, experienced resistance and slowed down, and as a fact, forming a rollback in the market. Looking at the graph in general terms, we see that the recent fluctuation was directly related to the fellow in the euro / dollar market, which at the same time showed sharp jumps due to the information background, while the pound / dollar showed something similar due to the high correlation. Information and news background had statistics on the level of productivity in the US non-farm sector for the first quarter, where a decline from 3.6% to 3.4% was recorded with a forecast of 3.5%. At the same time, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US remains at 218K. The locomotive of yesterday's movement was the speech of the ECB Head Mario Draghi regarding the fate of monetary policy, where expectations were high, and as a result, they received another written text. The head of the ECB reiterated that the key rate will remain at the current level until at least mid-2020, but at the same time, he also stated that the Board raised the issue of reducing the rate and resuming the quantitative easing program. However, this is still only at the review stage and the current ECB time follows the original action plan. So why do we consider the actions of the ECB, if we work with the English currency? All due to the high correlation between the currency pairs EURUSD & GBPUSD. We close the information and news background according to the tradition of Brexit. There were rumors in the media that most EU countries are ready to support the new British deferment to exit the country from the European bloc, as they believe that the new prime minister of the country may need additional time to hold a second referendum on this issue. When will we see the end of this "divorce" process? Today, the key event of the day is the report of the United States Department of Labor, which will publish data on changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector in May, where 185 thousand new jobs were predicted compared to the previous period of 263 thousand. We can recall that the ADP report was published on Wednesday, and there we saw a significant decline; and thus, the current data may be even worse. As a result, the dollar may again be under pressure. The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is rather saturated with statisticians data, right from the beginning of the week. The most interesting events are displayed below ---> Monday, June 10 United Kingdom 8:30 Universal time - Production volume in the manufacturing industry (y / y) (Apr): Prev. 2.6% ---> Forecast 1.3% United Kingdom 8:30 Universal time - GDP United States 14:00 UTC+00 - Number of vacancies in the JOLTS labor market (Apr): Prev. 7.488M ---> Forecast 7.240M Tuesday, June 11 United Kingdom 8:30 Universal time - Average wage with premiums (Apr): Prev. 3.2% ---> Forecast 3.4% United Kingdom 8:30 Universal time - Change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits (May) United States 13:45 UTC+00 - Producer Price Index (PPI) (y / y) (May): Prev. 2.2% ---> Forecast 2.0% Wednesday, June 12 United States 12:15 UTC+00 - Basic Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (May): Prev. 2.1% Friday, June 14 United States 12:30 UTC+00 - Volume of retail sales (m / m) (May): Prev. 3.1% These are preliminary and subject to change. Further development Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote has borders in the form of a local maximum of 1.2746 and a minimum of a recent fluctuation of 1.2668 on May 27. These borders are now in the center of attention of traders, as they are stretched pending orders. Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them: - Positions for purchase is considered in the case of price fixing higher than 1.2746. - Positions for sale are considered in the case of price fixing lower than 1.2668. Indicator Analysis Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short, intraday and medium term, are configured in an upward direction due to all recent fluctuations. Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year. (June 6 was based on the time of publication of the article) The current time volatility is 38 points. Volatility may be accelerated by data from the United States, but if the quote remains within the specified limits, the volatility will be limited. Key levels Zones of resistance: 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700. Support areas: 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **. * Periodic level ** Range Level The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Fed can push the dollar down by reducing the interest rate Posted: 07 Jun 2019 01:45 AM PDT This week, the US Democratic Senator from Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren proposed to the Fed more active management of the value of the dollar to support exports and domestic production. US President Donald Trump would certainly approve such steps. However, there are two problems associated with this. First, it is a policy that involves currency manipulation and is not endorsed by the United States for allegedly being pursued by other countries. Second, and more importantly, the Federal Reserve is tasked with controlling inflation, not the value of the national currency. It is obvious that with its main instrument – the interest rate – the regulator will at best be able to achieve only one of these goals. It is assumed that if the Fed reduces the interest rate this year, as many investors expect, it will push the dollar down, which will help to stimulate the country's economy, making exports more competitive and imports more expensive. However, for the Central Bank, the rationale for reducing the rate has nothing to do with the USD rate. Most likely, an assessment of whether the rate cut makes sense will require the fed to answer the question of whether it will be possible to stimulate production and employment in the country without the risk of inflation. Judging by the latest statements of senior representatives of the Fed, the regulator is not yet ready to reduce the interest rate, but the escalation of trade tensions in the world pushes it in this direction. Recall, the last time the Fed decided to reduce the rate more than 10 years ago – in December 2008. A regular meeting of the American Central Bank will be held on June 19, at which it will have to carefully build communication, dealing with the aggressive position of the market on where the interest rate will go next. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY on June 7 Posted: 07 Jun 2019 01:20 AM PDT EUR/USD On the euro chart from May 23, a wave structure with a high wave potential is formed upwards. Previously, the wave will take the place of correction of the last section of the scale of TF W1, which started at the beginning of the year. Since June 2, a complex correctional model "expanding triangle" has been developing in the structure of the bullish area. Forecast: Today, the end the flat bearish movement of the euro is expected. By the end of the day, volatility is likely to increase and change the course of the price movement. Before the turn, a short-term puncture of the lower support boundary is not excluded. The change in the trend of the euro may coincide with the time of the release of the news block from the United States. Recommendations: Sales of the pair today at the next session are possible, but the lot should be minimally reduced, due to possible sharp counter-rollbacks. In the area of the support zone, it is recommended to look for signals to buy the instrument. Resistance zone: - 1.1300/1.1330 Support zone: - 1.1220/1.1190 GBP/USD In the framework of the dominant downward trend since May 3, an upward correction has been developing on the chart of the British pound since the end of last month. Analysis of its structure shows the incompleteness of the wave. Since June 5, the price is in the "sideways". Forecast: Today, we expect the continuation of the current in the last days to the flat attitude. In the morning, the vector of price fluctuations is more likely. Return to the upward rate is expected at the end of the day or early next week. Recommendations: Within the framework of the formed price band at the next session, sales of the pair are possible. But purchases of a pair look more promising, entry into which is recommended to be monitored in the area of the calculated support zone. Resistance zone: - 1.2740/1.2770 Support zone: - 1.2670/1.2630 USD/JPY The bullish section of the chart of the major yen pair from June 3 forms a correction to the previous trend segment from May 21. The wave structure is close to completion, forming the final part (C). Forecast: At the closest trading sessions, the price rise, which continues in recent days, is expected to complete. The most likely part of the turn is the resistance zone. When changing course, it is impossible to exclude a short-term break of its upper limit. Recommendations: Purchases have little potential, so they can be used only within the next session at the smallest TF. When the price reaches the resistance zone, it is recommended to start tracking the reversal signals of your vehicle to find the point of sale of the pair. Resistance zone: - 108.70/109.00 - 108.00/107.70 Support zone: - 111.70/111.40 Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements. Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| A review of EUR / USD, GBP / USD pairs on 07.06.2019: Do not forget the classics Posted: 07 Jun 2019 01:07 AM PDT Alfred Hitchcock said that before the climax of the moment, which in no case can not show the main villain. After all, it will cease to be something incomprehensible and mysterious as soon as evil appears in appearance. But it was precisely this mistake that was made by all those who, from each iron, shouted that the European Central Bank would announce plans to lower interest rates and perhaps also to resume the program of quantitative easing. That is, they diligently painted the face of almost existential horror and when Mario Draghi came out to the public, everyone understood that the devil is not so terrible as he is painted. The head of the European Central Bank reiterated that interest rates would remain at current levels, at least until mid-2020. Although, this is already known to everyone for a long time when such plans were first announced. The only thing that could have alerted was the words of Mario Draghi that some of the members of the Board of the European Central Bank raised the question of the possibility of lowering interest rates, as well as the resumption of the quantitative easing program, but in the end, the decision to leave everything as it was made unanimously. The head of the European Central Bank merely noted that the regulator will proceed from the macroeconomic situation. Moreover, given that the forecast for economic growth and inflation has not changed much, it becomes clear that no changes are foreseen, at least for now. The final GDP data for the first quarter showed unchanged economic growth rates as if confirming the forecasts of the European Central Bank. Hence, these are the words of Mario Draghi that some of the members of the board of the European Central Bank raised the question of the possibility of lowering interest rates, as well as the resumption of the quantitative easing program. The dollar became cheaper not only because of the painstaking increase in panic but also because of its own macroeconomic statistics, which again proved to be extremely depressing. In particular, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 18 thousand, instead of reducing by 7 thousand. All of these happened solely because of the increase in the number of repeated applications, then the number of primary ones remained unchanged. Thus, this data has become a kind of addition to the ADP Employment Report, which is all on the eve of today's publication of a report by the United States Department of Labor. Naturally, the report of the United States Department of Labor is the main event of the day and perhaps a week. Moreover, no more data is released today with the exception of inventories in the warehouses of wholesale trade, which should grow by another 0.7%. After all, these same stocks, the last time declined as much in October 2017, which does not allow to get rid of the thought of the approaching classic crisis of overproduction. However, the predictions on the content of the report of the Ministry of Labor look rather strange. Thus, the average working week should increase from 34.4 hours to 34.5 hours, and the growth rate of the average hourly wage may remain unchanged. The combination of these two factors can only cause optimism, especially since the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. Of course, outside agriculture, about 185 thousand new jobs were created as expected against 263 thousand in the previous month. Although we are talking about a decrease, the forecast value is still at an acceptable mark. Yet, such forecasts raise many questions, as well as the ADP report and data on applications for unemployment benefits, tell us about a completely different one. Moreover, it turns out to be extremely strange, as with a decrease in the rate of creation of new jobs. The unemployment rate may remain unchanged since the share of labor in the total population should increase from 62.8% to 62.9%. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that the content of the report will turn out to be somewhat worse than expected but such forecasts raise many questions. The ADP report and data on applications for unemployment benefits also tell us about a completely different one. If the forecasts on the report of the Ministry of Labor are confirmed then the dollar will receive little support, the single European currency will be forced to decline to 1.1225. But if all these forecasts turn out to be nothing, then it is worth waiting for the growth of the single European currency to 1.1300 with an attempt to pass even higher. The pound will be forced to repeat the actions of its continental neighbor and if the forecasts on the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor coincide, it will have to decline to 1.2650. Otherwise, it is worth waiting for the growth of the pound to 1.2750. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Indicator analysis. Daily review for June 7, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair Posted: 07 Jun 2019 12:43 AM PDT Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Friday, we are waiting for the continuation of the upward movement with the first target of 1.2744 - the upper fractal. Much will depend on the news that comes out at 12.30 Universal time. Fig. 1 (daily schedule). Comprehensive analysis: - indicator analysis - up; - Fibonacci levels - up; - volumes - up; - candlestick analysis - down; - trend analysis - up; - Bollinger lines - down; - weekly schedule - up. General conclusion: On Friday, we are waiting for the continuation of the upward movement with the first target of 1.2744 - the upper fractal. Much will depend on the news that comes out at 12.30 Universal time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Indicator analysis. Daily review for June 7, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair Posted: 07 Jun 2019 12:06 AM PDT Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Friday, before the news, the price will move down to the side channel. After working out the news - (according to the forecast - upward movement), the downward trend will continue with the first target of 1.1233 - a pullback level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line). Much will depend on the news that comes out at 12.30 Universal time. Fig. 1 (daily schedule). Comprehensive analysis: - indicator analysis - down; - Fibonacci levels - down; - volumes - up; - candlestick analysis - down; - trend analysis - up; - Bollinger lines - up; - weekly schedule - up. General conclusion: On Friday, before the news, the price will move down to the side channel. After working out the news - (according to the forecast - upward movement), the downward trend will continue with the first target of 1.1233 - a pullback level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line). Much will depend on the news that comes out at 12.30 Universal time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 06 Jun 2019 11:56 PM PDT The euro strengthened against the US dollar on Thursday after the ECB's interest rate decision. Despite the harsh tone of statements by Central Bank President Mario Draghi, the bulls continued to buy risky assets. The data released in the afternoon on the US economy did not strongly support the dollar. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the initial jobless claims for the week from May 26 to June 1 remained unchanged at 218,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 212,000. Data for the previous week were revised upwards by 3000. The US trade deficit narrowed slightly in April. However, the decline is directly related to a sharp drop in imports rather than an increase in exports. According to the US Department of Commerce, the deficit in trade in goods and services in April 2019 decreased by 2.1% compared to March and amounted to $ 50.79 billion. Economists had expected a deficit of $ 50.8 billion in April. The reduction in imports was 2.2%, to $ 257.638 billion, while exports also fell by 2.2%, to $ 206.847 billion. Despite the data of the US Department of Labor to improve labor productivity in the US in the 1st quarter of this year, traders left the report unattended, as it was worse than the preliminary estimate. Thus, labor productivity outside agriculture in the 1st quarter increased by 3.4%, while, according to the initial assessment, productivity growth was 3.6%. Back in the 1st quarter of this year, labor productivity showed an increase of 2.4% compared to the same period of the previous year. Meanwhile, unit labor costs in the 1st quarter decreased by 1.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, while a decrease of only 0.9% was expected. As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further growth will still be possible only after the break and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1275, which will allow us to count on a re-test of the weekly high of 1.1310 and its update in the area of 1.1360. If euro buyers fail to cope with the task, and the labor market data in the US, which is expected today, will not be so bad, the pressure on risky assets will increase, which will return the trading instrument to a minimum of 1.1200. On the contrary, a weak report could lead to a sharp rise in the euro above the resistance of 1.1305 and the renewal of monthly highs. The Canadian dollar continued to strengthen yesterday after data that Canada's trade deficit in April 2019 reached its lowest level in the last six months. According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, Canada's foreign trade deficit in goods in April amounted to 966 million Canadian dollars, while economists had expected the deficit to be 2.8 billion Canadian dollars. Exports in April increased by 1.3% compared to the previous month and amounted to 50.70 billion Canadian dollars, while imports fell by 1.4% and amounted to 51.67 billion Canadian dollars. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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