Forex News 24

Forex News 24

Forex News 24


Dow Jones Today: Stocks Are Spinning Their Wheels

Posted: 12 Jun 2019 02:01 PM PDT

Hits: 4


Following Tuesday's modest declines, the major U.S. equity benchmarks did more of the same Wednesday, falling slightly as oil prices slid and President Donald Trump continued lobbing harsh trade rhetoric at China.

The 5 Best Dow Jones Stocks to Buy Now

Source: Shutterstock

Trump said he has no interest interest in a deal with China unless the world's second-largest economy agrees to honor what the U.S. president believes was previous commitment to honor certain terms of a trade accord.

"We had a deal with China and unless they go back to that deal, I have no interest," said Trump.

Trump's trade talk has been a common theme for investors to contend with in recent weeks, and with the G-20 summit looming later this month, market participants are likely hoping the president backs off the hostilities aimed at China.

With trade tensions at the forefront of many investors' minds, the losses of 0.38% and 0.2% for the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 today were tolerable. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished lower by 0.17%. Reflecting the day's lethargy, exactly half the Dow's components were up in late trading while half were in the red.

Not A Lot Of Big Gainers

In late trading, just four of the Dow's 30 names were up more than 1%. The leader of that pack was industrial conglomerate United Technologies (NYSE:UTX), which earlier this week revealed a controversial bid acquire rival Raytheon (NYSE:RTN) for $121 billion.

What is curious about Wednesday's positive price action in United Technologies is that the stock rose against the backdrop of some well-known hedge fund managers saying they plan to oppose the company's bid to acquire Raytheon. Pershing Square's Bill Ackman went so far as to say he would publicly oppose the deal if necessary. Dan Loeb's Third Point, another hedge fund with a position in United Technologies, also voiced opposition to the deal.

Sticking in the aerospace and defense arena for a moment, shares of Boeing (NYSE:BA), the Dow's largest component, slipped Wednesday. The company is a massive U.S. exporter, meaning its stock could be under scrutiny leading up the aforementioned G-20 summit on June 28-29.

"President Donald Trump is expected to meet Xi Jinping, China's president. Boeing's stock could jump if something positive is said about a trade deal after the meeting," reports Barron's.

It was a good day for blue-chip healthcare stocks as three of the Dow's four names from that sector traded higher, led by Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ). The healthcare sector, the second-largest sector weight in the S&P 500, has been a dud for most of this year, but the group recently caught a bid as investors embraced defensive sectors.

The trade makes sense because even large healthcare companies like JNJ have little exposure to foreign markets that are at the center of Trump's various trade conflicts. For its part, JNJ is on a seven-day winning streak, meaning the stock has closed higher in seven of June's eight trading days.

Bottom Line on the Dow Jones Today

As has been previously noted in this space, investors would do well to not overreact one way or other to one day of market movement. That said, it is worth considering that nine of the 15 Dow stocks that traded higher today, including JNJ, would be considered defensive names.

Another name from that group is McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), which is setting a torrid second-quarter pace, up almost 12% since the start of April.

Absent contributions from the energy and technology sectors and with trade tensions still running high, the Dow's defensive names continue to offer some allure for investors looking to remain engaged with equities while attempting to keep volatility at bay.

As of this writing, Todd Shriber did not own any of the aforementioned securities.

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When and Where to Place Your Amazon Stock Purchase Order

Posted: 12 Jun 2019 01:24 PM PDT

Hits: 5


Before you think worrisome-looking headlines of late are sure signs of bigger and more bearish things to come in Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), think again. Better yet, look again at the price chart and be ready to buy Amazon stock on pending positive developments in shares. Let me explain.

Ignore The Headlines And Buy The Antitrust Dip In Amazon Stock

Source: Shutterstock

It's been a couple difficult weeks for headlines at Amazon. The diversified tech giant is at the center of antitrust investigations by U.S. authorities. Not that it's alone. Fellow tech giants Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) are facing the same legal heat over collectively hindering competition for consumers and other businesses alike.

The better news? While proceedings in the House are currently underway, it goes without saying that when the government is involved, change if any, isn't going to happen overnight. As well, if action by lawmakers is taken, it could prove beneficial to Amazon stock. A breakup of the company might yield shareholder value as the sum of the parts could be worth more than if Amazon remains intact.

The other headline making the rounds is Amazon stock had to bow to a business defeat this week. Tuesday it was announced the company was exiting the food delivery service business after three-plus years of testing the waters in select U.S. markets.

The withdrawal should spell good news for the likes of Grubhub (NYSE:GRUB) and other industry operators like Uber (NYSE:UBER). But let's face it, if Amazon wants back into the market, acquiring its diminutively-capitalized competition would be pocket change for the tech giant. And back to the sum of the parts argument? Needless to say, it's even less to lose sleep over.

Amazon Stock Monthly Chart


Click to Enlarge

Betting against Amazon stock over the last decade has worked at times. But as the monthly chart illustrates, buying after corrective moves as shares reassert their strength or picking up AMZN stock on weakness, has proven the much better play. It's a bullish trend I'm unwilling to discount right now. That being said, I'm not a buyer of shares at current levels either.

For the time being, waiting to buy Amazon nearer to technical support or purchase AMZN on a pattern breakout makes sense. On the monthly we can see shares have formed a corrective cup pattern. After finding support from its 50% retracement level tied to its 2016 corrective low, Amazon stock has been consolidating the past couple months in the upper half of the base.

Overall the pattern construction in Amazon stock looks bullish and sets up another potential base to rally from. As much and with AMZN's stochastics at oversold levels, buying Amazon stock on a pattern breakout through $1965 or roughly 6% above current prices makes sense.

Alternatively, buying AMZN shares on weakness near technical support might be watched as well.

After six days of higher highs, a pullback in Amazon stock is likely in order. But be careful. Given the monthly chart's consolidation, any weakness should be brief. I'm thinking a couple to maybe several sessions at most. As well, with the recent low critical to the pattern's development,  staying long AMZN if a potential technical failure is confirmed looks like an awful business plan, both off and on the price chart.

Disclosure: Investment accounts under Christopher Tyler's management do not currently own positions in any securities mentioned in this article. The information offered is based upon Christopher Tyler's observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only; the use of which is the responsibility of the individual. For additional options-based strategies and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits.

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Remember the Epic $100 December Rally in NFLX Stock? It’s Returning

Posted: 12 Jun 2019 12:44 PM PDT

Hits: 10


I remember times when Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) hogged the headlines for weeks on end. These days, Wall Street is more preoccupied with cannabis stocks, or initial public offerings (IPOs) like Uber (NYSE:UBER) and, more recently, Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND). While it's no longer in the limelight, NFLX stock is silently making moves in the background.

Remember the Epic $100 December Rally in Netflix Stock? It's Coming Back

Source: Shutterstock

It has been consolidating for a long while. But the opportunity today is with the levels where this action is taking place.

Netflix stock is trading inside a range to establish a base camp that could catapult shares of NFLX $100 higher. Yes, it could still make a move to the high $400 per share. This opportunity is technical, so I would label it as tactical with medium conviction. It is independent of the company's current value and its odds of long-term success.

Since March 2018, Netflix stock has used $335 per share area as a major pivot. A year ago, the bulls broke NFLX out of that pivot. But then the fall correction reversed that move and sent NFLX shates the other way into its December lows.

Then NFLX bounced off the lows very sharply and has spent all of 2019 consolidating around the same $335 per share zone. This is not a hard line in the sand but rather a band where bulls and bears are fighting it out fiercely. The end result of this stalemate will be a big move but where the direction is still unknown.

If the equities in general rally, I bet Netflix will break out from these clutches. The exciting part comes from the fact that this would be a bullish inverse head-and-shoulder pattern that would result in a $100 move. This would be the opposite pattern to the one that crashed the stock last October from almost the same zone.

This year, the bulls are in control of the stock market. Yes, we've had our bearish stints but the bulls bought the dips. While sentiment is not perfect, especially since we have an ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China, the U.S. Fed is now on the side of equities.

This recent swoon is a perfect example. When the S&P 500 fell on Trump's Mexicican tariff tweet, traders followed up that reaction with the best week of the year. The bears are unable to sustain the selling and that's why the stock market is are near all-time highs.

This helps Netflix stock in deciding which way the move will go from this tight situation. If the near- to long-term price action trends higher, then NFLX stock is likely to break out. Once Netflix shares pass the last fail level, momentum buyers would come into play.


Click to Enlarge
This is still a momentum stock so when it catches a wind it accelerates in that direction. So then buying begets more buying. Those who chase it like to buy high and sell higher.

There are short-term lines to know …

Above $385 per share would be the best trigger for this move. But there will be resistances at $367 and $372. I know this sounds impossible, but as we've seen the rally in December, NFLX stock can move 40% in a matter of days.

Conversely, below $332 per share would invite sellers so traders should set tight stops unless they plan on turning this trade into an investment. I prefer selling puts below current support to trade moves like this where the breakout is not guaranteed especially when we have so many geopolitical headline risk completely independent of NFLX itself.

So what about its fundamentals? This is not a cheap stock. It sells at a 129 price to earnings ratio. But as long as it continues to be a growth stock investors need not judge its profitability. The bullish thesis on NFLX is that it has a massive addressable global market and that it's only begun to scratch the surface.

The company has its critics and they are loud and proud. They offer excellent reasons to short it. NFLX spends too much on producing content. They also could have a problem with churn. Although they still have the first mover advantage, competition is nipping at their heels. Normally I wouldn't worry about that yet but this bunch scary potential foes.

Disney (NYSE:DIS) is the closest to go head to head and it comes with major advantages. I worry that Netflix management doesn't give DIS enough respect. Every parent on the planet will want to subscribe to Disney's stream because every child on earth will demand it. Luckily for NFLX is that they are both cheap enough that parents may not need to choose between the two yet.

Moreover, NFLX ace in the pocket is its content but it comes at a tremendous expense. So they borrow to feed the beast and luckily that rates are not going anywhere for a long while so that's not an imminent danger. But DIS already has content that people want and they do produce new versions much cheaper so they will be able to compete on margin if it comes to it.

While I do sound like I am making an anti Netflix argument here, I am not. I do believe that NFLX needs a few miracles to go their way in the long term, here I see a potential rally that could deliver a ton of profits. So I set my alerts to chase it.

Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Join his live chat room free here.

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Analyst: This Pharma Stock is "Remarkably Cheap"

Posted: 12 Jun 2019 12:43 PM PDT

Hits: 8



Schaeffer’s Midday Market Check a, a:link, a:visited, a:hover, a:active { color: #fb3f00; text-decoration: none; } .divcontainer { background: #e3edef; width: 800px; } body { margin: 0 10px 0 10px; background: #e1e1e1; font-family: arial, helvetica, geneva, sanserif; font-size: .8em; } td.side_advertisement p { margin: 0 10px; }

Data showed weekly crude inventories rose again last week

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Midday Market Check
 
 

6/12/2019

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Oil Prices Nosedive, Dow Dips Again

By Karee Venema

Share On

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is lower at midday, as traders digest the latest inflation data, putting the blue-chip index on track for back-to-back losses. While downside for the Dow is modest thanks to big gains from pharma stocks Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Merck (MRK), oil prices are making a notable move south after data showed a second consecutive weekly rise in domestic crude inventories. At last check, July-dated crude is down 2.9% at $51.71 per barrel.

Continue reading for more on today’s market, including: 

  • Put buyers see new lows for sinking Dave & Buster’s stock.
  • Analyst: This pharma stock is “remarkably cheap.”
  • Plus, Teva legal troubles spark heavy options volume; Tailored Brands drops ahead of earnings; and analysts rush to raise Alteryx price targets.

>> Continue reading…
LATEST HEADLINES

>> Broadcom Stock Rally Cools Ahead of Earnings
The Apple supplier is set to report earnings after tomorrow’s close
>> Cisco Bear Places 6-Figure Bet After Downgrade
The blue chip is set to snap a six-day winning streak
>> Jefferies Calls Bottom on Gene Therapy Stock After Huge Sell-Off
AXGT keeps trading lower despite a bull note and a smaller-than-expected loss
>> Dave & Buster’s Options Traders Busy After Earnings
Some traders are betting on bigger losses through Friday’s close
>> Vitamin Stock Easy Pill to Swallow After Weed Deal
The firm inked a multi-year deal with Green Organic Dutchman
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2019-06-12 16:19:20



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Trade Wars and Tariffs Have Put the US Auto Industry in Peril

Posted: 12 Jun 2019 12:22 PM PDT

Hits: 7


Auto Industry Outlook:

Trade Wars and Tariffs Have Put the US Auto Industry in Peril

The US auto industry is in peril despite efforts from the Trump administration to bolster the sector and revert manufacturing back to domestic plants. That said, the two largest US auto manufacturers, Ford and General Motors, have performed admirably in the year-to-date. Ford has climbed 11.5% while GM is just 3% higher. By comparison, the S&P 500 has enjoyed a rally of more than 10.5%. While the gap may not seem large given that the auto industry is a mature one and demand is cyclical, the picture is direr over a wider timeframe.

S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (March 2018 – May 2019) (Chart 1)

Since President Trump announced steel and aluminum tariffs on March 1, 2018, Ford has slipped -2% and GM has slumped roughly 6%. In the same period, the S&P 500 has posted a gain of 2.35%. Still, stock prices do not reflect the whole story.

In a move that drew the ire of President Trump, General Motors announced on February 4 it would cut 4,000 jobs in an effort to restructure. Often, layoffs cause a bump in stock price – as fat is trimmed and costs are reduced. After the announcement on February 4, GM shares rallied roughly 2% – offsetting some of the pain from the tariff headwinds.

View A Brief History of Trade Wars for insight on economic conflicts of the past.

Similarly, Ford announced its own round of job cuts on May 20. The auto manufacturer released plans to eliminate 10% of its salaried workforce, which translates to nearly 7,000 jobs. The plan will reach completion at the end of August 2019. The announcement is supplemental to an earlier decision by the company to begin cutting nearly 20,000 jobs earlier in 2019.

Announced Automotive Cuts

Trade Wars and Tariffs Have Put the US Auto Industry in Peril

Challenger, Gray & Christmas

According to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the auto industry is cutting workers at the quickest rate since the Great Financial Crisis as auto cuts surge 207% over the last year. While part of the restructuring can be attributed to increased automation and industry change, the headwinds from tariffs and prolonged uncertainty have undoubtedly weighed on other industries – some of which are direct suppliers to US automakers.

Domestic Steel Produces Slip

Steel producers that conduct most of their business in the United States like US Steel (X), Nucor (NUE), AK Steel (AKS) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) find themselves in a similar position to the US auto industry. Since the United States announced steel and aluminum tariffs on March 1, 2018, the four steel companies have shed nearly -12% each.

S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (March 2018 – May 2019) (Chart 2)

steel producer price chart

The steel and aluminum tariffs have not only impacted the manufacturers directly but have been passed on to auto manufacturers, increasing costs which thereby decreases margins. The knock-on effect has weighed on two key industries in the manufacturing sector and the impact of tariffs has started to spill into other sectors like retail.

Although a key headwind was lifted with the removal of metal tariffs on Mexico and Canada, USMCA remains unratified. Further, the steel and auto stocks above enjoyed very little reprieve following their removal. Now, the industries must grapple with increased levies between the United States and China – along with a 6-month period of uncertainty regarding auto tariffs on the European Union and Japan.

These sector-specific themes fall against a backdrop of slowing global growth. Together, waning demand and rising costs will continue to pressure a sector that was forced into a bailout during the Great Financial Crisis. Should renewed pressure befall the stock market, the beleaguered industry will have to enact even greater change if it is to avoid a similar fate. As these themes unfold, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: What if Mexico, Canada Join the US in the Trade War with China?

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

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June 12, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Posted: 12 Jun 2019 12:12 PM PDT

Hits: 10


On March 29, a visit towards the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) could bring the GBPUSD pair again towards the upper limit of the minor bearish channel around (1.3160-1.3180).

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850.

On April 26, another bullish pullback was initiated towards the price zone of 1.3130-1.3170 where the depicted bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2980-1.3020.

Hence, Bearish breakdown below 1.2980 allowed the recent significant bearish movement to occur.

Initial bearish Targets were already reached around 1.2900-1.2870 (the backside of the broken channel) which failed to provide any bullish support for the GBPUSD pair.

Further bearish decline was demonstrated towards the lower limit of the long-term channel around (1.2700-1.2650) where the GBPUSD pair looked oversold obviously.

That’s why conservative traders were suggested NOT to consider any SELL signals around those low price levels.

As anticipated, bullish breakout above 1.2650 has already been achieved. This enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.2750 which is preventing further bullish advancement Temporarily.

For the bulls to remain dominant, another bullish breakout above 1.2750 is needed to extend potential bullish targets towards 1.2800, 1.2890 and 1.2940 if sufficient bullish momentum is demonstrated.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.2650 stood as a prominent demand level offering a valid BUY entry (demonstrating a bullish Head & Shoulders reversal pattern).

However, any bearish breakout below 1.2650 invalidates the mentioned bullish scenario.

Trade Recommendations:

For Intraday traders, A valid BUY entry can be offered upon bullish breakout above 1.2750. T/P level to be located around 1.2820, 1.2900 and 1.2940. S/L should be placed below 1.2690.

Conservative traders should wait for an extensive bullish movement towards 1.2870-1.2905 (newly-established supply zone) to look for valid long-term SELL entries. S/L should be placed above 1.2950.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
2019-06-12 18:07:47



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AMD Stock Has a China Reprieve That May Not Last

Posted: 12 Jun 2019 12:07 PM PDT

Hits: 2


Earlier this month, Computex 2019 — the world's biggest computer show — closed its curtains. But not before giving Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) a massive sentiment lift. We're not even into the halfway point, yet the AMD stock price is up 11% so far in June. That's all the more impressive considering that shares slipped on the Tuesday session.

AMD Stock Has a China Reprieve That May Not Last

Source: Shutterstock

Year-to-date, Advanced Micro Devices stock has delivered stakeholders an 80% return. It's almost the exact opposite narrative of larger rivals Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). Not only that, the massive influx of bullish buyers in AMD shares is no accident: fundamentally, the semiconductor firm which has always played second fiddle deserves its reversal of fortune.

That's because Computex 2019 was arguably all about AMD. The company's CEO, Dr. Lisa Su, gave a keynote speech a day prior to the show. Later, AMD delivered the goods, displaying an array of next-generation chips that could upend the semiconductor industry's pecking order. On the surface, this bodes well for the AMD stock price, both nearer-term and longer-term.

Now, I'm not a huge techie, nor am I an expert on the technical side of the chip-making business. For that, I'll defer to the established professionals in the realm. But the takeaway for Advanced Micro Devices stock is that the underlying organization finally has the credibility in its goal to take down Intel.

These advanced chips compete not only on performance metrics, but on price point. Even to the lay observer, AMD has closed the performance gap. Therefore, whatever incremental gains Intel offers really becomes questionable when they're charging nearly double the price.

But before you jump on AMD stock, you should consider an important headwind:

Despite Bullishness, China Is Still a Problem for AMD Stock

When you look at how far the AMD stock price has shifted, it's tempting to believe that the chipmaker is a unicorn. Unlike the competition, AMD hasn't suffered obvious damage from the U.S.-China trade war.

You can't say that about Intel nor Nvidia. In May when tensions escalated between the world's top two economies, INTC dropped nearly 13%, while NVDA tanked 25%. Advanced Micro Devices stock? It actually gained 2% before riding the aforementioned rally.

Moreover, the options market signaled unusual optimism for AMD stock. Thus, it appears that investors are confident overall that the trade war will find a resolution. If not, indicators clearly suggest that AMD is immune to this geopolitical tension.

Of course, it's hard to dismiss that bullishness, considering the company's product lineup. Plus, rival Intel isn't doing itself any favors with its chip-shortage issues. Nevertheless, I'd recommend a cautious approach, especially at these levels.

First, no tech firm will get away completely unscathed from the trade war. The core issues driving the economic battle are deeply embedded with nationalistic pursuits. Most likely, China is looking to play the long game here.

Second and more importantly for Advanced Micro Devices stock, AMD needs China, just like any other semiconductor firm. Hidden in the exciting news at Computex 2019 was that several AMD chips were clearly geared toward the gaming industry. But if the trade war closes the Chinese gaming market, that could trouble AMD in a hurry.

Recall that earlier this year, Nvidia cut guidance for its fourth-quarter revenue estimates due to weak Chinese demand for gaming chips. Look at where NVDA is now.

While AMD's next-gen chips impress, a good portion require a healthy global gaming market. A prolonged trade war hurts that case, threatening AMD stock.

Market Is Urging Caution

Technically, you have two distinct pathways regarding Advanced Micro Devices stock. You can trust the options market, which suggests that shares will move higher. Or you can bank on the regular price chart, which may be signaling a double-top bearish reversal.

Naturally, if you have skin in the game, you're more inclined to believe the options market's implications. You also have the incredibly strong and compelling product lineup in your favor.

But at the same time, tech stocks are volatile. It's rare that one name would avoid the troubles plaguing the sector.

Specifically for AMD stock, I think some traders don't fully appreciate how badly the trade war can turn. China is an ancient society with a proud populace. While the Trump administration has justification to prosecute this trade war, it did so with arguably excessive aggression. That means it completely ignored China's cultural norms in dealing with disagreements.

As such, China can't afford to embarrassingly acquiesce to Trump's brusque manners. So as much as there is reason for hope, there's also a serious case for pessimism. And that ultimately puts a question mark on Advanced Micro Devices stock, at least for the interim.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all.

Can you get gilded from fx trading? The serve is if you go from canadian forex, and unchaste forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is locomote in forex 1 buck canadian, netdania forex, work chockablock advantage of the forex system indicators, and appraisal the programme fx strategy. We testament succeed win all.

Internet Marketing Does not Elicit a Lot of Support

Posted: 12 Jun 2019 11:37 AM PDT

Hits: 9

Internet marketing does not elicit a lot of support from family and / or friends. To those who are not intimately involved, the field appears to be something akin to voodoo.

If you are thinking of getting into the field, your first challenge will be convincing your spouse or other significant family members that it is indeed possible to make money on the internet. The reaction you'll get will be disbelief, or at least skepticism, that it is not possible for you to be able to sit at your computer typing a few hours a day and have that result in an income. If it looks easy, it must not be a real money-making job or profession. No matter how many success stories you present to them, they'll be seen as too good to be true. And we all know the old saying about things that seem too good to be true. So, if you are set on making a living on the internet, prepare yourself for going it alone. You will get little support, a lot of 'why do not you get a real job' comments, and stares (or more likely, glares) of disbelief when you say need to invest some money into your business to get it off the ground.

Just remember. These types of reactions are everyday occurrences for entrepreneurs in just about any field. Do not let them get you down.

Also remember that when you begin to make significant money, all those naysayers will quickly become your biggest fans. Some of them may even take credit for your success by insisting that you would not have made it without their unflinching support. Just grin and bear it. It goes with the territory.

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7 U.S. Stocks to Buy With Limited Trade War Exposure

Posted: 12 Jun 2019 11:30 AM PDT

Hits: 9


Global financial markets are in rally mode after the U.S. and Mexico struck an immigration agreement to avert tariffs between the two countries. But, the global trade war is far from over. The U.S. and China have struck no such deal, and as of this writing, the big and ugly trade war between those two countries projects to get even bigger and uglier.

So long as this trade war hangs around, it will provide a drag on financial markets.

But, it won't provide a drag on every stock. Not every company has exposure to China, trade and tariffs. Some companies are null to mitigated exposure to those things, and as such, won't be weighed down as much by a trade war. They will continue to report solid and healthy numbers, and their stocks will rally in response.

As such, these are the stocks you want to buy for the foreseeable future, or so long as the trade war persists.

Which stocks fall into this basket of stocks to buy for their limited trade war exposure? Let's take a closer look.

Facebook (FB)

Facebook (FB)

Source: Shutterstock

The great thing about Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) in the current environment is that you have a $70 billion services revenue business, growing at a 20%-plus rate, that is blocked in China. At the same time, FB stock trades at just 23-times forward earnings.

That's a healthy combination that should power over-performance in FB stock so long as the trade war sticks around. To be sure, Facebook isn't entirely exempt from the trade war. The higher tariffs go, the higher prices go for U.S. corporations. Most of those corporations can't afford to pass price hikes onto consumers, so they will absorb the tariff hit. In order to offset that hit, they may look to cut down on spend, including cutting back the ad budget.

But, even if that happens, the Facebook ad budget likely won't get cut. Smaller, more experimental ad channels, like Snap (NYSE:SNAP) or Pinterest (NYSE:PINS), could get hit. Facebook won't, though, because it's the tried-and-true digital ad channel.

All in all, then, Facebook is well isolated from trade war risks, and the business is still growing at a 20%-plus rate while the stock trades at a relatively cheap multiple considering that 20%-plus growth. Ultimately, that makes FB stock a good buy here.

Five Below (FIVE)

U.S. Stocks to Buy With Limited Tariff Exposure: Five Below (FIVE)U.S. Stocks to Buy With Limited Tariff Exposure: Five Below (FIVE)

Source: Shutterstock

Retail is broadly a bad place to be during the trade war, since a majority of U.S. retailers source their product from countries with lower labor costs, with the biggest of those countries being China. As such, retailers are at the epicenter of tariffs on China imports.

But, discount retailer Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) is different from other retailers. First, this is a U.S.-focused retailer, so all of its sales happen in the United States. Second, this is a very strong and popular retailer, with comparable sales consistently running positive for several years. Third, this is a hyper-growth retailer, as the company is growing its store base by about 20% per year.

Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, Five Below has successfully leveraged price hikes and renegotiated supply contracts to offset the impact of tariffs. As a result, sales growth has remained healthy, margins have remained resilient and both of those dynamics project to persist for the foreseeable future.

In the big picture, then, FIVE stock is a good buy here because this is a super strong retailer that is successfully side-stepping tariffs.

American Electric Power (AEP)

U.S. Stocks to Buy with Limited Tariff Exposure: American Electric Power (AEP)U.S. Stocks to Buy with Limited Tariff Exposure: American Electric Power (AEP)

The trade war promises to bring economic and financial market volatility. When economic and financial market volatility are on the rise, investors do two things: they hunt for stability, and they hunt for yield.

U.S. utility giant American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP) provides both of those things. American Electric Power is arguably one of the most stable public companies in America, as the company provides electricity services to millions of Americans, none of whom are going to stop paying for said electricity services anytime soon because they all need electricity to survive in the modern world. Meanwhile, AEP stock simultaneously offers investors a healthy 3% yield, which looks exceptionally attractive next to a depressed 10-Year Treasury yield and in the face of slowing corporate earnings growth.

All in all, AEP stock looks good here as a defensive play for risk-adverse investors looking to mitigate volatility and trade war exposure.

Netflix (NFLX)

U.S. Stocks to Buy with Limited Tariff Exposure: Netflix (NFLX)U.S. Stocks to Buy with Limited Tariff Exposure: Netflix (NFLX)

Source: Shutterstock

Much like Facebook, the great thing about Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) in the current environment is you have a hyper-growth services business that is blocked in China.

Netflix is at the epicenter of the secular growth, over-the-top video mega-trend, which is sweeping across the globe. As a result, Netflix is growing revenues at a robust 20%-plus rate, with rapidly expanding margins, too. Importantly, this growth narrative has zero exposure to China, since Netflix is outright blocked in China.

Overall, then, Netflix stock gives investors exposure to a secular, 20%-plus revenue growth story without any exposure to the volatile and trade-impacted Chinese market. Demand for that exposure will go up so long as the trade war sticks around. As such, so long as the trade war persists, so will the uptrend in NFLX stock.

Alphabet (GOOG)

U.S. Stocks to Buy with Limited Tariff Exposure: Alphabet (GOOG)U.S. Stocks to Buy with Limited Tariff Exposure: Alphabet (GOOG)

Source: Shutterstock

Global internet search giant Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) falls in the same boat as Facebook and Netflix — it's a hyper-growth services company with zero exposure to China.

Much like Facebook and Netflix, Alphabet is a 20%-plus growth internet company supported by secular growth tailwinds in global urbanization and digitization. At the same time, the company makes most of its revenues from its services businesses (digital ads and cloud), and very little revenue from the hardware businesses like Google Home. Also, Google search and YouTube — the two cores of Alphabet — don't exist in China.

In other words, as is the case with Facebook and Netflix, Alphabet offers investors exposure to a secular, 20%-plus global internet growth narrative with limited trade, tariff and China exposure.

That is the exact type of exposure investors will flock to so long as the trade war persists, meaning that GOOG stock should fare well even in the face of rising trade tensions.

Shopify (SHOP)

U.S. Stocks to Buy with Limited Tariff Exposure: Shopify (SHOP)U.S. Stocks to Buy with Limited Tariff Exposure: Shopify (SHOP)

Sticking in the secular growth services theme, next up we have e-commerce solutions provider Shopify (NYSE:SHOP).

Shopify provides e-commerce solutions to retailers of all shapes and sizes, so that they can create online stores and have the tools to succeed in an omni-channel commerce world. This growth narrative has caught fire over the past several years as the sharing economy has gained mainstream traction, and as e-retail has become increasingly decentralized and democratized. This narrative projects to remain on fire, too, as Shopify still only accounts for a fraction of the global retail sales pie.

The trade war won't impact this narrative at all. Even if tariffs go up a whole bunch, and retailers are looking at higher input costs, they won't pull their Shopify spend. Why? Because Shopify is the platform that makes everything work for these retailers. Without Shopify, they don't have the tools to succeed in the digital world. Without those tools, retailers will suffer, meaning subscription revenue projects to keep rising for a lot longer. At the same time, consumers won't stop shopping in the digital channel, so transaction revenue will continue to march higher, too.

As such, regardless of which way the trade war plays out, Shopify's growth narrative should remain broadly robust for the foreseeable future. This sort of unstoppable growth narrative is the exact type of narrative investors want exposure to at this point in time.

Okta (OKTA)

U.S. Stocks to Buy with Limited Tariff Exposure: Okta (OKTA)

U.S. Stocks to Buy with Limited Tariff Exposure: Okta (OKTA)

Cloud identity platform Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA) falls into the same boat as Shopify. This is a secular growth, small-cap services company with tremendous momentum at the moment, and this momentum will not be derailed by trade disputes.

In a nutshell, Okta sells a cloud security solution that enables individuals to securely sign into any enterprise software system. This unique method of tackling digital and cloud security has gained traction and popularity over the past several years. As it has, Okta's growth trajectory has accelerated higher. Last quarter, the company reported 50% revenue growth.

The trade war won't disrupt this growth narrative. First, Okta is a services business with minimal exposure to China. Second, digital security is increasingly becoming the most important and central feature of any enterprise, so a U.S. economic slowdown likely won't impact security spend on platforms like Okta by that much.

In total, Okta is a hyper-growth internet services company with mitigated trade exposure, and it's a company that provides high-value services with resilient demand. That's a winning combination in today's market.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long FB, PINS, FIVE, AEP, NFLX, GOOG, SHOP and OKTA.

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Why Investors Shouldn’t Buy AT&T (T) Stock at This Point

Posted: 12 Jun 2019 10:51 AM PDT

Hits: 14


AT&T's (NYSE:T) performance continues to be sluggish. T stock is down nearly 20% from its 2017 peak and is flat over the past year. As the company digests its massive Time Warner purchase, shareholders are hoping that the deal will soon  start to pay off for AT&T stock price.

Here Are 3 Reasons Why Spinning Off DirectTV Would Help AT&T Stock

Source: Shutterstock

Don't get your hopes up too high, though. AT&T has made or attempted other big acquisitions with little success in the past. Its streaming strategy is already in disarray, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that the company had to scrap its three-tier model and offer all of its content for just one price. And the company seems set to take a sizable write-off as it tries to figure out some way to dispose of its sinking DirecTV unit. Given all of AT&T problems, expect T stock to remain stuck in its quagmire awhile longer.

AT&T Tries to Offload Its Sinking DirecTV Unit

I've been a harsh critic of AT&T's dealmaking in general and its purchase of DirecTV in particular over the years. With this acquisition, as with so many of AT&T's recent deals, the company  bought into a sector right at the peak of its hype, leaving T to absorb losses as the "next new thing" supplanted it.

In the case of DirecTV, AT&T paid a whopping $49 billion ($67 billion including debt) for the satellite TV operator. Since then, DirectTV's value has eroded sharply, though just how far remains an open question.

In any case, AT&T appears to be ready to get rid of DirectTV and write off its loss. Reports have emerged that AT&T is trying to merge DirecTV with its main rival, Dish (NASDAQ:DISH). As DirecTV is now bleeding hundreds of thousands of subscribers a quarter, uniting the two would make sense because such a deal would help reduce their costs as their revenues plummet. In any case, Dish's market cap is only $17 billion now, giving an indication of just how much money AT&T wasted on its terrible purchase.

But even the merger that AT&T is mulling may not solve the problem. JP Morgan analyst Philip Cusick panned the idea, saying that DirectTV and Dish may not fit well together culturally and that it may be difficult to obtain regulators' approval to merge the two firms. The analyst added that: "We believe the dis-synergies of pulling DirecTV away from AT&T's U-verse in buying power would be value destructive."

From its questionable venture into Mexican telecom, to DirecTV and now its unclear streaming strategy, however, AT&T is nothing if not good at being value destructive. Since 2007, T stock is down 20% while the S&P 500 has nearly doubled. Look back and it's even worse; AT& stock price peaked around $60 in 2000 and is down nearly 50% since then.

Should Investors Buy T Stock for Its Dividend?

Soon it will be T stock owners' favorite time. T stock is expected to go ex-dividend in just under a month. The company is currently paying $2.04 per share per year. That amounts to a 6.67% dividend yield on AT&T stock.

T stock is the highest-yielding name in the Dow Jones Industrials index, and pays one of the highest dividends of any large-cap American company. With interest rates in free-fall again as the economy decelerates, T stock's dividend looks very interesting as an income play.

I'm not sold on it, however. For one thing, AT&T is the most indebted company in the world. Yes, it is making promises to pay down its debts over time, and asset divestitures, such as doing something with DirecTV, could help it accomplish that goal.

But AT&T is going full steam ahead with its risky content/video streaming gambit that will put it in competition with highly-competent competition from Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) and many others.  Until the company's streaming project reaches critical mass, T is likely to lose large quantities of  money on the initiative . Moreover, it makes little sense strategically for AT&T to spend so much of its cash flow on a dividend when it is trying to reposition the company aggressively towards growth and new markets.

AT&T's entrenched and unchanging capital allocation policy puts the company in a bind going forward. Its shareholders own T stock mostly for the dividend. But it is rushing into a viciously competitive playing field where its rivals aren't bogged down by massive debt and dividend obligations. Yes, the yield on T stock is nice, but it could cripple the company in coming years.

The Verdict on T Stock

I still can't warm up to AT&T stock now. Sure, its dividend is huge, and it is safe for the time being. But there's very little to be cheery about aside from that.

With interest rates in a massive decline, AT&T stock should be on fire. Other conservative sectors, like utilities, REITs, and consumer staples are all exploding higher. The Utilities SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLU), for example, is up 15% this year and has hit new all-time highs. Other telecom stocks are doing better than AT&T as well. T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) is up nearly 20% in 2019, and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is in positive territory as well.

Unfortunately for the owners of T stock, they're likely to see more underperformance going forward. The company's haphazard deal-making is likely to continue destroying shareholder value, leaving investors with little more than the dividend in return for their investment. It wouldn't be at all surprising to see T stock drop back under $30 once this current rush into dividend-paying stocks blows over.

At the time of this writing, Ian Bezek held no positions in any of the aforementioned securities. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.

 

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